The Impact of Financial Factors on the Output Gap and Estimates of Potential Output Growth

J. Felipe, Noli R. Sotocinal, Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

The literature on the finance–growth nexus highlights the importance of the financial cycle for the estimation of potential output of an economy. We estimate potential output growth for the G-5 countries, as well as for 10 high- and middle-income Asian economies, using a multivariate model that includes financial factors. We find that the latter have a positive and statistically significant effect on the output gap of the G-5 and high-income Asian economies, but not on that of the middle-income Asian economies. We also find that average potential growth of the economies included in the study is lower in 2008–2014 than in 2000–2007.
金融因素对产出缺口的影响及潜在产出增长的估计
有关金融-增长关系的文献强调了金融周期对估计经济潜在产出的重要性。我们使用包括金融因素在内的多变量模型,估计了五国集团(G-5)以及亚洲10个中高收入经济体的潜在产出增长。我们发现后者对G-5和高收入亚洲经济体的产出缺口有显著的正影响,但对中等收入亚洲经济体的产出缺口没有显著影响。我们还发现,2008-2014年研究中所包括的经济体的平均潜在增长率低于2000-2007年。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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