Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series最新文献

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Macroeconomic Uncertainties, Oil Subsidies, and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia 宏观经济不确定性、石油补贴和亚洲财政可持续性

Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1601663

S. Jha, Pilipinas F. Quising, Shiela F. Camingue

{"title":"Macroeconomic Uncertainties, Oil Subsidies, and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia","authors":"S. Jha, Pilipinas F. Quising, Shiela F. Camingue","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1601663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1601663","url":null,"abstract":"Global oil prices have subsided relative to the peak reached in mid-2008, but compared to historical levels they remain elevated and volatile as economic uncertainties continue to unfold. The likelihood of these prices rising again soon cannot be ruled out. High oil prices can adversely affect growth, employment, external accounts, and fiscal positions of governments. An overwhelming response across Asia as international oil prices spiked in 2008 was to shield domestic consumers more than before through oil subsidies, which are inequitable, economically inefficient, and environmentally unfriendly. These subsidies add directly to the fiscal deficit and public debt, but are generally hidden, making their measurement difficult. Additionally, in combination with lower growth rates, higher spending to rev up demand across Asia is also worsening the fiscal positions of governments. This paper computes the transmission of recent global oil price movements to domestic markets and estimates oil price subsidies in a diverse group of 32 Asian economies. Using data for 18 of these countries and applying a forward-looking methodology for debt dynamics, the paper then examines the potential impact of responses to macroeconomic shocks and a possible rise in oil prices on public debt and estimates the fiscal correction needed to sustain debt at a steady-state level. Based on the findings from the empirical analysis, the paper extracts some guiding principles for fiscal policy responses to the economic shocks depending on country-specific circumstances.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"157 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124395967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 23

Quality of Jobs in the Philippines: Comparing Self-Emloyment with Wage Employment 菲律宾的工作质量:自我雇佣与受薪雇佣的比较

Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1607435

R. Hasan, K. Jandoc

{"title":"Quality of Jobs in the Philippines: Comparing Self-Emloyment with Wage Employment","authors":"R. Hasan, K. Jandoc","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1607435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1607435","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of labor force survey data from 1994 to 2007 reveals that the structure of the Philippines labor force has been changing in several important ways. One is the movement from self-employment, the most predominant form of employment, to wage employment across a wide range of production sectors. How does one evaluate this change in terms of workers’ earnings—arguably the most important element of job quality? Since labor force survey data do not provide information on earnings of the self-employed, we combine information on household incomes (disaggregated by source) from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with information on household members’ employment-related activities from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) to shed light on this question. We also examine broad trends in the structure of employment, wages, and earnings. Our findings suggest that the decline of self-employment is no bad thing. For the most part, the earnings and educational profiles of the self-employed are very similar to those of casual wage earners, and clearly dominated by those of permanent wage earners even when observable worker characteristics are controlled for. An implication is that the self-employed do not seem to be “capitalists in waiting” as noted in recent literature. As selfemployment gives way to wage employment, especially casual wage employment in the services sector, the key challenge for policy is tackling the slow growth of wages and earnings indicated by both LFS and FIES data","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126390710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

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