{"title":"Uncertain Programming Models for Finding Reliably Compromise Design Solutions","authors":"G. Veresnikov, Oleg Ogorodnikov","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9933997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9933997","url":null,"abstract":"The article proposes optimization models that allow in preliminary technical objects design for obtaining the Pareto frontier that contains the values of objective functions and the level of confidence in their implementation. An example of synthesis of symmetrical two-element support structure parameters has been considered using the developed optimization models.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"50 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120856070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model of Dynamics the Inflation Macro Indicators Taking into Account External Influences","authors":"V. Gusev","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934296","url":null,"abstract":"A developmental model reflects the dynamics of macro indicators of the Russian economy, such as the consumer price index, the ruble exchange rate, the dynamics, and the annual GDP index in the medium term. When building the model, we used expert hypotheses, patterns, and statistical data. To build a model, we used a phenomenological approach, which consists in formalizing the properties of the observed reaction of the economy to external influences and the subsequent verification of the resulting model.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116525992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Scenario Approach to Software Updates of Complex Networks","authors":"V. Orlov, E. Kurako","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934183","url":null,"abstract":"The features of updating programs and data in complex networks are considered. A scenario approach to updating in large-scale distributed systems is proposed. Algorithms for generating and executing scenarios are described. The main methods of updating software and information structures of application servers, database servers, and clients are defined.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"134 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116534351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of the Efficiency of Economic Activity in the Field of Information and Communication","authors":"I. Promakhina","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934556","url":null,"abstract":"The efficiency of economic activity in the field of information and communication is evaluated. Efficiency is understood as the ratio of the output achieved to the optimal possible with the available resources. The econometric model of the stochastic frontier is used to evaluate the effectiveness. The model is estimated according to the 2017–2019 data of the regions of Russia and the country as a whole.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121050292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Digital Methods for Control Adaptive Production","authors":"N. Aristova, V. Chadeev","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934672","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the management of adaptive production preparation with the application of a numerical simulation technique for managing the flexible production preparation process, which is based on the analysis of how efficient automated production operations are according to various criteria that take into account the indicators of quality performance of the production operations by automatic machines. The simulation example provides the estimated cost and average cost of the robot's performing production operations for the three types of workpieces machined.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126226639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Linearized Model of Volatile Equilibrium in Real Economics","authors":"Oleg I. Krivosheev","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934747","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a theory connecting leverage and volatility in almost the same way as private goods volumes are in dual interconnection with their prices. But the corresponding (substantially dynamical non-linear) theory is technically too complex both for operating and for results understanding, so here we develop a substantially simplified bi-linear isomorphic to general volatile equilibrium model but using only matrixes and 3-dimensional tensors instead of functional spaces and multidimensional phase diagrams. Regardless of the difficulties expected in the general case, this analytical system is appeared to be exactly solvable under some acceptable conditions.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134279012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trolls' Online Aggression Effects","authors":"D. Stukal","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934493","url":null,"abstract":"This paper builds upon the existing literature on Internet trolls to define them as social media users who system-atically express aggression online, and develops a computational model to study the effect of trolls on the aggression level on social media. We perform a series of computational experiments to identify the bounds for the effect magnitude. We also collect data on the online discussions on the Russian social media platform VK from 2020 – 2021 to calibrate the developed model. Our calibration results reveal that the most likely magnitude of trolls' effects on the level of aggression requires a double-size increase in the proportion of trolls for a single-size increase in the proportion of aggressive comments.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133209107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A complex algorithm for calculating the lower confidence limit of a large-scale complex using the information about the failure-free operation probability of its software and hardware","authors":"Evgenij Yurkevich, Lidia Kryukova","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934562","url":null,"abstract":"Using the Bayesian reliability estimation method, this article offers an algorithm for calculating the lower one-sided confidence limit of failure-free operation the probability in a large-scale complex. This algorithm shows the main causes of contradictions in the results of software and hardware reliability control and ways to solve them.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132202077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Ivanyuk, A. Tsvirkun, V. Soloviev, V. Feklin, A. Sunchalina, Oleg Kravchenko
{"title":"Forecasting Financial Time Series Based on the Ensemble Method","authors":"V. Ivanyuk, A. Tsvirkun, V. Soloviev, V. Feklin, A. Sunchalina, Oleg Kravchenko","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9933994","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9933994","url":null,"abstract":"The study considers methods for forecasting financial time series. We construct an ensemble forecast based on the linear forecast, ETS forecast, and neural forecast methods. Thereupon, we evaluate the quality of the forecast based on the confidence coefficients.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131113559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Consumer Market Stabilization Modeling","authors":"V. Burkov, Anna Kostyreva, A. Zalozhnev","doi":"10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD55143.2022.9934281","url":null,"abstract":"The report is devoted to consumer market stabilization modeling. A macro description of the economic system's functioning process is given. A meaningful interpretation of the simulation results is presented.","PeriodicalId":295604,"journal":{"name":"2022 15th International Conference Management of large-scale system development (MLSD)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131747602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}