{"title":"Mitigation Strategies for Foot and Mouth Disease: A Learning-Based Approach","authors":"S. Chowdhury, C. Scoglio, W. Hsu","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2011040103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2011040103","url":null,"abstract":"Prediction of epidemics such as Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a global necessity in addressing economic, political and ethical issues faced by the affected countries. In the absence of precise and accurate spatial information regarding disease dynamics, learning-based predictive models can be used to mimic latent spatial parameters so as to predict the spread of epidemics in time. This paper analyzes temporal predictions from four such learning-based models, namely: neural network, autoregressive, Bayesian network, and Monte-Carlo simulation models. The prediction qualities of these models have been validated using FMD incidence reports in Turkey. Additionally, the authors perform simulations of mitigation strategies based on the predictive models to curb the impact of the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the cost-effectiveness of these mitigation strategies to conclude that vaccinations and movement ban strategies are more cost-effective than premise culls before the onset of an epidemic outbreak; however, in the event of existing epidemic outbreaks, premise culling is more effective at controlling FMD.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"153 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116724702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Autonomous Multi-Agent Simulation Model for Acute Inflammatory Response","authors":"John Wu, D. Ben-Arieh, Zhenzhen Shi","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2011040106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2011040106","url":null,"abstract":"This research proposes an agent-based simulation model combined with the strength of systemic dynamic mathematical model, providing a new modeling and simulation approach of the pathogenesis of AIR. AIR is the initial stage of a typical sepsis episode, often leading to severe sepsis or septic shocks. The process of AIR has been in the focal point affecting more than 750,000 patients annually in the United State alone. Based on the agent-based model presented herein, clinicians can predict the sepsis pathogenesis for patients using the prognostic indicators from the simulation results, planning the proper therapeutic interventions accordingly. Impressively, the modeling approach presented creates a friendly user-interface allowing physicians to visualize and capture the potential AIR progression patterns. Based on the computational studies, the simulated behavior of the agent-based model conforms to the mechanisms described by the system dynamics mathematical models established in previous research.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"62 24","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114052693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Gaff, C. Burgess, Jacqueline Jackson, Tianchan Niu, Y. Papelis, David M. Hartley
{"title":"Mathematical Model to Assess the Relative Effectiveness of Rift Valley Fever Countermeasures","authors":"H. Gaff, C. Burgess, Jacqueline Jackson, Tianchan Niu, Y. Papelis, David M. Hartley","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2011040101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2011040101","url":null,"abstract":"Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is increasingly used to explicate the mechanics of disease propagation, impact of controls, and sensitivity of countermeasures. The authors demonstrate use of a Rift Valley Fever (RVF) model to study efficacy of countermeasures to disease transmission parameters. RVF is a viral infectious disease that propagates through infected mosquitoes and primarily affects animals but also humans. Vaccines exist to protect against the disease but there is lack of data comparing efficacy of vaccination with alternative countermeasures such as managing mosquito population or destroying infected livestock. This paper presents a compartmentalized multispecies deterministic ordinary differential equation model of RVF propagation among livestock through infected Aedes and Culex mosquitoes and exercises the model to study the efficacy of vector adulticide, vector larvicide, livestock vaccination, and livestock culling on livestock population. Results suggest that livestock vaccination and culling offer the greatest benefit in terms of reducing livestock morbidity and mortality.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"133 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131927163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Taehyong Kim, Kang Li, A. Zhang, S. Sen, M. Ramanathan
{"title":"A Computational Model of Mitigating Disease Spread in Spatial Networks","authors":"Taehyong Kim, Kang Li, A. Zhang, S. Sen, M. Ramanathan","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2011040104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2011040104","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the problem of disease spreading and containment in spatial networks, where the computational model is capable of detecting disease progression to initiate processes mitigating infection spreads. This paper focuses on disease spread from a central point in a 1 x 1 unit square spatial network, and makes the model respond by trying to selectively decimate the network and thereby contain disease spread. Attention is directed on the kinematics of disease spreading with respect to how damage is controlled by the model. In addition, the authors analyze both the sensitivity of disease progression on various parameter settings and the correlation of parameters of the model. As the result, this study suggests that the radius of containment process is the most critical parameter and its best values with the computational model would be a great help to reduce damages from disease spread of a future pandemic. The study can be applied to controlling other virus spread problems in spatial networks such as disease spread in a geographical network and virus spread in a brain cell network.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115973946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Resource Distribution Strategies for Mitigation of Cross-Regional Influenza Pandemics","authors":"Andrés Uribe-Sánchez, Alex Savachkin","doi":"10.4018/JALR.2011040102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/JALR.2011040102","url":null,"abstract":"As recently acknowledged by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack dynamic decision support capabilities. This paper develops a simulation optimization model for generating dynamic resource distribution strategies over a network of regions exposed to a pandemic. While the underlying simulation mimics the disease and population dynamics of the affected regions, the optimization model generates progressive allocations of mitigation resources, including vaccines, antivirals, healthcare capacities, and social distancing enforcement measures. The model strives to minimize the impact of ongoing outbreaks and the expected impact of the potential outbreaks, considering measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The model was implemented on a simulated outbreak involving four million inhabitants. The strategy was compared to pro-rata and myopic strategies. The model is intended to assist public health policy makers in developing effective distribution policies during influenza pandemics.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122176960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Supercritical Pitchfork Bifurcation in Implicit Regression Modeling","authors":"S. Lipovetsky","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2010100101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2010100101","url":null,"abstract":"Chaotic systems have been widely studied for description and explanation of various observed phenomena. The problem of statistical modeling for messy data can be attempted using the so called Supercritical Pitchfork Bifurcation (SPB) approach. This work considers the possibility of applying SPB technique to regression modeling of the implicit functions. Theoretical and practical advantages of SPB regression are discussed with an example from marketing research data on advertising in the car industry. Results are very promising, which can help in modeling, analysis, interpretation, and lead to understanding of the real world data.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127796657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Adaptive H8 Fuzzy Control for a Class of Uncertain Discrete-Time Nonlinear Systems","authors":"Tsung-Chih Lin, Shuo-Wen Chang","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2010100104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2010100104","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, an adaptive interval type-2 fuzzy controller is proposed for a class of unknown nonlinear discrete-time systems with training data corrupted by noise or rule uncertainties involving external disturbances. Adaptive interval type-2 fuzzy control scheme and control approach are incorporated to implement the main objective of controlling the plant to track a reference trajectory. The Laypunov stability theorem has been used to testify the asymptotic stability of the whole system and the free parameters of the adaptive fuzzy controller can be tuned on-line by an output feedback control law and adaptive laws. The overall adaptive scheme guarantees the global stability of the resulting closed-loop system in the sense that all signals involved are uniformly bounded. The simulation example is given to confirm validity and tracking performance of the advocated design methodology.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131268682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Acquiring Knowledge in Extended Hierarchical Censored Production Rules (EHCPRS) System","authors":"Sarika Jain, Nitin K. Jain","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2010100102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2010100102","url":null,"abstract":"EHCPRs system is a knowledge representation and reasoning system for representing common sense knowledge and reasoning with it. In such a system an EHCPR is used as a unit of knowledge for representing any universal concept. There are a number of EHCPRs at various levels of hierarchy of knowledge structure in the EHCPRs system, which results in a tree of EHCPRs. This EHCPRs tree has the capability of continuous growth through new added EHCPRs to it at proper place as well as to get refined continuously with time through improvement in the already acquired EHCPRs. The EHCPRs tree will become stronger in terms of strength of implication and richer in knowledge as time passes. This paper discusses different schemes for enhancing the intelligence, i.e., the knowledge base and the database in the EHCPRs system. By simple and general snippets of code, the EHCPRs system is able to acquire new pieces of knowledge and assimilate it properly in the already acquired knowledge base. The EHCPRs system dynamically restructures the EHCPRs tree in each learning phase by maintaining consistency and minimizing redundancy as well.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123629031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Load Balancing for the Dynamic Distributed Double Guided Genetic Algorithm for MAX-CSPs","authors":"Sadok Bouamama, K. Ghédira, Nisrine Zaier","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2010100105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2010100105","url":null,"abstract":"The Dynamic Distributed Double Guided Genetic Algorithm (D3G2A) deals with Maximal Constraint Satisfaction Problems. The approach consists in creating agents cooperating together to solve problems. This paper aims to improve the D3G2A. The main purpose is to balance agent loads this distributed approach. The proposed approach will redistribute the load of Species agents more equally in order to improve the CPU time. This improvement allows not only reduction of the number of Species agents but also decreases communications agents cost. In this regard, a sub-population is composed of chromosomes violating a number of constraints in the same interval. Secondly, another proposed approach will redistribute the work load. This improvement allows diminution of inactive Species agents and it results in a balanced workloads. In fact, by analogy with social animal flocks, Species agents cooperate together to do all tasks in a reduced CPU time. Several comparisons are made about new approaches with the old version of the D3G2A. Results are promising.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"182 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122759465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Algorithms and Computations in BL-Algebras","authors":"C. Lélé","doi":"10.4018/jalr.2010100103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/jalr.2010100103","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the authors study the notion of n-fold implicative and fuzzy n-fold implicative filters, which correspond to various sets of provable formulaes, in BL-algebras. Several characterizations of fuzzy n-fold implicative filters are given and the authors analyse some relationships with various n-fold and fuzzy n-fold filters in BL-algebras, while constructing some algorithms for studying the foldness of filters in BL-algebras. The authors describe the relation between fuzzy n-fold implicative filters and fuzzy (n+1)-fold implicative filters and establish the extension property for fuzzy n-fold implicative filters in BL-algebras.","PeriodicalId":289669,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Artif. Life Res.","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117024597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}