Denise Hörner, Adrien Bouguen, M. Frölich, M. Wollni
{"title":"The Effects of Decentralized and Video-Based Extension on the Adoption of Integrated Soil Fertility Management – Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"Denise Hörner, Adrien Bouguen, M. Frölich, M. Wollni","doi":"10.3386/W26052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26052","url":null,"abstract":"The slow adoption of new agricultural technologies is an important factor in explaining persistent productivity deficits among smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Farmers delay in particular the uptake of technology packages. Since knowledge constraints are an important barrier to adoption, effective extension approaches are key. In recent decades, extension systems in many SSA countries have moved towards decentralized “bottom-up” models involving farmers as active stakeholders. In this study we assess the effects of a decentralized extension program and an additional video intervention on the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) among 2,382 farmers in Ethiopia using a randomized controlled trial. ISFM should enhance soil fertility and productivity by combining organic and inorganic soil amendments. We find that both extension-only and extension combined with video increase ISFM adoption and knowledge. We further find evidence for increased adoption of ISFM practices among farmers in treatment communities that do not actively participate in the extension activities. The additional video intervention shows a significant complementary effect for these non-actively involved farmers, in particular regarding the combined use of the practices on the same plot. A causal mediation analysis reveals that increases in knowledge explain part of the treatment effects on adoption.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"170 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116325152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Shifting Fortunes of the Economic Technocracy in Uganda: Caught Between State-Building and Regime Survival?","authors":"Badru Bukenya, S. Hickey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3437761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3437761","url":null,"abstract":"Uganda’s impressive levels of economic growth over most of the past three decades have often been linked to the performance of its economic technocracy, particularly the government’s high-powered Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development (MFPED). This paper argues that MFPED (or parts thereof) can indeed be seen as ‘pockets of effectiveness’, with the Ministry often managing to deliver effectively on its mandate, in a context in which this is not the norm. This can be explained in part by the functional and legally mandated nature of some of the tasks that MFPED delivers and in part by the strong levels of international support and oversight. However, we also find that MFPED’s performance has varied considerably over time, despite these favourable factors, particularly in terms of its capacity to control the budgetary process and public expenditure. This variation can be traced to shifts within Uganda’s political settlement, which moved from being broadly ‘dominant-developmental’ to ‘vulnerable-populist’ in character from the early 2000s onwards. This shift profoundly altered the ‘embedded autonomy’ that MFPED had previously enjoyed with regards its relationship with State House, in ways that have undermined MFPED’s capacity to deliver on its mandate. Despite efforts to regain both power and autonomy in recent years, MFPED remains subject to the politics of regime survival in Uganda, in ways that undermine its effectiveness. Whilst this may loosen the hold of neoliberal economic governance in Uganda and enable alternative perspectives to emerge, the more immediate effects have been to damage prospects for policy coherence and economic growth in the country.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132385609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Runshan Fu, Manmohan Aseri, Param Vir Singh, K. Srinivasan
{"title":"'Un'Fair Machine Learning Algorithms","authors":"Runshan Fu, Manmohan Aseri, Param Vir Singh, K. Srinivasan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3408275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3408275","url":null,"abstract":"Ensuring fairness in algorithmic decision making is a crucial policy issue. Current legislation ensures fairness by barring algorithm designers from using demographic information in their decision making. As a result, to be legally compliant, the algorithms need to ensure equal treatment. However, in many cases, ensuring equal treatment leads to disparate impact particularly when there are differences among groups based on demographic classes. In response, several “fair” machine learning (ML) algorithms that require impact parity (e.g., equal opportunity) at the cost of equal treatment have recently been proposed to adjust for the societal inequalities. Advocates of fair ML propose changing the law to allow the use of protected class-specific decision rules. We show that the proposed fair ML algorithms that require impact parity, while conceptually appealing, can make everyone worse off, including the very class they aim to protect. Compared with the current law, which requires treatment parity, the fair ML algorithms, which require impact parity, limit the benefits of a more accurate algorithm for a firm. As a result, profit maximizing firms could underinvest in learning, that is, improving the accuracy of their machine learning algorithms. We show that the investment in learning decreases when misclassification is costly, which is exactly the case when greater accuracy is otherwise desired. Our paper highlights the importance of considering strategic behavior of stake holders when developing and evaluating fair ML algorithms. Overall, our results indicate that fair ML algorithms that require impact parity, if turned into law, may not be able to deliver some of the anticipated benefits. This paper was accepted by Kartik Hosanagar, information systems.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"671 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122970782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Blockchain in Agriculture","authors":"J. Potts","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3397786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3397786","url":null,"abstract":"Agriculture is the production of food, fibre and data. The data attests to the qualities and properties of the food and fibre, and is therefore economically valuable. Yet while data is cheap to add, it is often costly to verify. In consequence, a significant percentage of the final cost of agricultural produce goes to costs of establishing provenance, proving compliance with standards and regulations, undergoing inspections, audits, and process monitoring, as well as costs of intermediation, quality assurance, and branding. Blockchain, a new technology that enables different parties along a supply chain to trust digital data (it is sometimes called a ‘trustless’ technology), has the potential to lower transaction costs and improve the efficiency of agricultural supply chains by reducing the need for monitoring and verification of data. Yet while hugely promising, the technology is still new and experimental, and faces a number of significant barriers to adoption.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"2016 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127612477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can Friends Seed More Buzz and Adoption?","authors":"Vineet Kumar, K. Sudhir","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3938101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3938101","url":null,"abstract":"A critical element of word of mouth (WOM) or buzz marketing is to identify seeds, often central actors with high degree in the social network. Seed identification typically requires data on the full network structure, which is often unavailable. We therefore examine the impact of WOM seeding strategies motivated by the friendship paradox to obtain more central nodes without knowing network structure. But higher-degree nodes may communicate less with neighbors; therefore whether friendship paradox motivated seeding strategies increase or reduce WOM and adoption remains an empirical question. We develop and estimate a model of WOM and adoption using data on microfinance adoption across 43 villages in India for which we have data on social networks. Counterfactuals show that the proposed seeding strategies are about 15-20% more effective than random seeding in increasing adoption. Remarkably, they are also about 5-11% more effective than opinion leader seeding, and are relative more effective when we have fewer seeds.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132060538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Cross-Efficiency","authors":"J. Aparicio, J. Zofío","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3394707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3394707","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is concerned with introducing a series of new concepts under the name of Economic Cross-Efficiency, which is rendered operational through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. To achieve this goal, from a theoretical perspective, we connect two key topics in the efficiency literature that have been unrelated until now: economic efficiency and cross-efficiency. In particular, it is shown that, under input (output) homotheticity, the traditional bilateral notion of input (output) cross-efficiency for unit l, when the weights of an alternative counterpart k are used in the evaluation, coincides with the well-known Farrell notion of cost (revenue) efficiency for evaluated unit l when the weights of k are used as market prices. This motivates the introduction of the concept of Farrell Cross-Efficiency (FCE) based upon Farrell’s notion of cost efficiency. One advantage of the FCE is that it is well defined under Variable Returns to Scale (VRS), yielding scores between zero and one in a natural way, and thereby improving upon its standard cross-efficiency counterpart. To complete the analysis we extend the FCE to the notion of Nerlovian cross-inefficiency (NCI), based on the dual relationship between profit inefficiency and the directional distance function. Finally, we illustrate the new models with a recently compiled dataset of European warehouses.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122247491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"New Digital Technologies and Heterogeneous Employment and Wage Dynamics in the United States: Evidence from Individual-Level Data","authors":"Frank M. Fossen, Alina Sorgner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3390231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3390231","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate heterogeneous effects of new digital technologies on the individual-level employment- and wage dynamics in the U.S. labor market in the period from 2011-2018. We employ three measures that reflect different aspects of impacts of new digital technologies on occupations. The first measure, as developed by Frey and Osborne (2017), assesses the computerization risk of occupations, the second measure, developed by Felten et al. (2018), provides an estimate of recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and the third measure assesses the suitability of occupations for machine learning (Brynjolfsson et al., 2018), which is a subfield of AI. Our empirical analysis is based on large representative panel data, the matched monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The results suggest that the effects of new digital technologies on employment stability and wage growth are already observable at the individual level. High computerization risk is associated with a high likelihood of switching one's occupation or becoming non-employed, as well as a decrease in wage growth. However, advances in AI are likely to improve an individual's job stability and wage growth. We further document that the effects are heterogeneous. In particular, individuals with high levels of formal education and older workers are most affected by new digital technologies.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"144 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133870524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disentangling Global Value Chains","authors":"A. de Gortari","doi":"10.3386/W25868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25868","url":null,"abstract":"I present a new global value chain (GVC) framework in which intermediate input suppli- ers produce specialized inputs that are only compatible with specific downstream uses. This feature is confirmed by firm-level data and is at odds with the current GVC approach which assumes that all products within a given industry utilize the same inputs. For example, Mexican firm-level data shows that the manufacturing firms that export to the U.S. utilize relatively more U.S. inputs than those that export to other destinations. I show how the new GVC framework can combine bilateral trade data with firm-level data in order to obtain GVC flows that reflect the heterogeneity in the use of inputs observed in the latter. This reveals that 27% of the $118bn of Mexican final good exports to the U.S. is U.S. value-added returning home. In contrast, the current GVC approach yields a share of only 17% since it ignores the specialized inputs channel. This discrepancy has serious implications for the ongoing renegotiation of NAFTA as it suggests that the potential costs of supply chain disruption are being understated. Lastly, I show how to compute these counterfactuals with an extension of the influential sufficient statistics approach to specialized inputs models and highlight important areas for future data collection.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128378719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring the Unmeasured: Combining Technology and Behavioral Insights to Improve Measurement of Business Outcomes","authors":"Stephen J. Anderson, Christy Lazicky, B. Zia","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8836","url":null,"abstract":"Business survey outcomes for micro and small firms are notoriously noisy, with multiple sources of measurement and recall error. This paper introduces a new survey methodology that combines automatic consistency checks of electronic data collection with triangulation and dynamic adjustment to arrive at more precise estimates of business performance. The methodology uses insights from behavioral science to lower the cognitive cost of initial recall and establishes salient and relevant anchors to allow for dynamic triangulation and adjustment toward a final estimate. The validity of this method is field tested against traditional performance measures as well as administrative data across three emerging markets: Ghana, Rwanda, and Uganda. The results show significant upward adjustment from traditional measures for both sales and profits, a lower coefficient of variation in the cross-section, and higher autocorrelation in panel data. Comparisons with administrative data further confirm a higher correlation and closer magnitude relative to traditional measures. This research reconciles recommendations for increased attention to survey design with a method to leverage electronic survey technology beyond consistency checks.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125318459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Blockchain in Startup Financing: ICOs and STOs in Switzerland","authors":"Galia Kondova, Geremia Simonella","doi":"10.33423/jsis.v14i6.2607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33423/jsis.v14i6.2607","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a comparative analysis of the new blockchain-based start-up and small companies funding methods, namely, initial coin offerings (ICOs) and security token offerings (STOs) against the backdrop of traditional fundraising methods like venture capital and private equity building on the experience of Switzerland. In particular, the comparative analysis is based on a theoretical overview of the nature of these blockchain applications, the relevant legislative framework as well as recent market developments with a focus on Switzerland. The paper concludes that both ICOs and STOs are characterized by lower entry barriers for investors and higher cost efficiency as compared to traditional start-up fundraising methods. However, STOs provide more security to investors than ICOs due to their wider regulation.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131223370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}