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Diagnosing the Italian Disease 意大利病的诊断
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3057451
Bruno Pellegrino, Luigi Zingales
{"title":"Diagnosing the Italian Disease","authors":"Bruno Pellegrino, Luigi Zingales","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3057451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3057451","url":null,"abstract":"Italy’s aggregate productivity abruptly stopped growing in the mid-1990s. This stop represents a puzzle, as it occurred at a time of stable macroeconomic conditions. In this paper, we investigate the possible causes of this “disease” by using sector and firm-level data. We find that Italy’s productivity disease was most likely caused by the inability of Italian firms to take full advantage of the ICT revolution. While many institutional features can account for this failure, a prominent one is the lack of meritocracy in the selection and rewarding of managers. Unfortunately, we also find that the prevalence of loyalty-based management in Italy is not simply the result of a failure to adjust, but an optimal response to the Italian institutional environment. Italy’s case suggests that familism and cronyism can be serious impediments to economic development even for a highly industrialized nation.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130434874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 90
Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality 风险资本估值与现实的关系
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2955455
W. Gornall, Ilya A. Strebulaev
{"title":"Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality","authors":"W. Gornall, Ilya A. Strebulaev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2955455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2955455","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a valuation model for venture capital-backed companies and apply it to 135 U.S. unicorns – private companies with reported valuations above $1 billion. We value unicorns using financial terms from legal filings and find reported unicorn post-money valuation average 50% above fair value, with 15 being more than 100% above. Reported valuations assume all shares are as valuable as the most recently issued preferred shares. We calculate values for each share class, which yields lower valuations because most unicorns gave recent investors major protections such as a IPO return guarantees (14%), vetoes over down-IPOs (24%), or seniority to all other investors (32%). Common shares lack all such protections and are 58% overvalued. After adjusting for these valuation-inflating terms, almost one-half (65 out of 135) of unicorns lose their unicorn status.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"75 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133455559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 116
Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth 人工智能与经济增长
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/W23928
P. Aghion, Benjamin F. Jones, C. I. Jones
{"title":"Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth","authors":"P. Aghion, Benjamin F. Jones, C. I. Jones","doi":"10.3386/W23928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23928","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (A.I.) on economic growth. We model A.I. as the latest form of automation, a broader process dating back more than 200 years. Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but A.I. now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. How will this affect economic growth and the division of income between labor and capital? What about the potential emergence of “singularities” and “superintelligence,” concepts that animate many discussions in the machine intelligence community? How will the linkages between A.I. and growth be mediated by firm-level considerations, including organization and market structure? The goal throughout is to refine a set of critical questions about A.I. and economic growth and to contribute to shaping an agenda for the field. One theme that emerges is based on Baumol’s “cost disease” insight: growth may be constrained not by what we are good at but rather by what is essential and yet hard to improve.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126331593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 294
Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection 气候变化和极端天气对美国农业生产力的影响:证据和预测
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.7208/9780226619941-004
Sun Ling Wang, V. E. Ball, R. Nehring, R. Williams, T. Chau
{"title":"Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection","authors":"Sun Ling Wang, V. E. Ball, R. Nehring, R. Williams, T. Chau","doi":"10.7208/9780226619941-004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226619941-004","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employs a stochastic frontier approach to examine how climate change and extreme weather affect U.S. agricultural productivity using 1940-1970 historical weather data (mean and variation) as the norm. We have four major findings. First, using temperature humidity index (THI) load and Oury index for the period 1960-2010 we find each state has experienced different patterns of climate change in the past half century, with some states incurring drier and warmer conditions than others. Second, the higher the THI load (more heat waves) and the lower the Oury index (much drier) will tend to lower a state’s productivity. Third, the impacts of THI load shock and Oury index shock variables (deviations from historical norm fluctuations) on productivity are more robust than the level of THI and Oury index variables across specifications. Fourth, we project potential impacts of climate change and extreme weather on U.S. regional productivity based on the estimates. We find that the same degree changes in temperature or precipitation will have uneven impacts on regional productivities, with Delta, Northeast, and Southeast regions incurring much greater effects than other regions, using 2000-2010 as the reference period.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128339775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Are U.S. Companies Too Short-Term Oriented? Some Thoughts 美国公司是否过于短视?一些想法
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-05-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2972117
Steven N. Kaplan, Steven N. Kaplan, Larry Summers
{"title":"Are U.S. Companies Too Short-Term Oriented? Some Thoughts","authors":"Steven N. Kaplan, Steven N. Kaplan, Larry Summers","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2972117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2972117","url":null,"abstract":"U.S. companies are often criticized for being overly short-term oriented. This paper documents that those criticisms have a long history, going back at least thirty-five years. The paper then considers the implications of sustained short-termism for corporate profits, venture capital investments and returns, private equity investments and returns, and corporate valuations. The paper finds little long-term evidence that is consistent with the predictions of the short-term critics.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126032313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 28
Agro-Ecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks 农业生态系统生产力及其对冲击的动态响应
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22624
J. Chavas
{"title":"Agro-Ecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks","authors":"J. Chavas","doi":"10.3386/W22624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22624","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic response to shocks, relying on a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model as a flexible representation of stochastic dynamics. The TQAR model can identify zones of stability/instability and characterize resilience and traps. Resilience means high odds of escaping from undesirable zones of instability toward zones that are more desirable and stable. Traps mean low odds of escaping from zones that are both undesirable and stable. The approach is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of productivity applied to historical data on wheat yield in Kansas over the period 1885-2012. The dynamics of this agroecosystem and its response to shocks are of interest as Kansas agriculture faced major droughts, including the catastrophic Dust Bowl of the 1930’s. The analysis identifies a zone of instability in the presence of successive adverse shocks. It also finds evidence of resilience. We associate the resilience with induced innovations in management and policy in response to adverse shocks.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121108083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Motivating Effort in Contributing to Public Goods Inside Organizations: Field Experimental Evidence 组织内部公共产品贡献的激励努力:实地实验证据
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/w22189
A. Blasco, O. Jung, K. Lakhani, Michael Menietti
{"title":"Motivating Effort in Contributing to Public Goods Inside Organizations: Field Experimental Evidence","authors":"A. Blasco, O. Jung, K. Lakhani, Michael Menietti","doi":"10.3386/w22189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w22189","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the factors driving workers’ decisions to generate public goods inside an organization through a randomized solicitation of workplace improvement proposals in a medical center with 1200 employees. We find that pecuniary incentives, such as winning a prize, generate a threefold increase in participation compared to non-pecuniary incentives alone, such as prestige or recognition. Participation is also increased by a solicitation appealing to improving the workplace. However, emphasizing the patient mission of the organization led to countervailing effects on participation. Overall, these results are consistent with workers having multiple underlying motivations to contribute to public goods inside the organization consisting of a combination of pecuniary and altruistic incentives associated with the mission of the organization.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132800364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Entrepreneurial Finance and the Effects of Restrictions on Government R&D Subsidies 创业融资与政府研发补贴限制的影响
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2755769
A. Conti
{"title":"Entrepreneurial Finance and the Effects of Restrictions on Government R&D Subsidies","authors":"A. Conti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2755769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2755769","url":null,"abstract":"Entrepreneurial ventures often face liquidity constraints. Governments have intervened by providing R&D subsidies, however these subsidies often come with restrictions. We study the impact on venture outcomes of one important restriction, namely the inability to transfer know-how away from a given geographic area. Using novel data on Israeli startups, we find that relaxing this restriction induces applications from higher-quality firms that would have been most likely deterred by the initial restriction. Consistently, the effect of R&D subsidies on startups' survival, ability to attract external investment, and innovation is largest among recipients applying for subsidies after the restriction is relaxed. Overall, these findings indicate that the social impact of reducing restrictions on R&D subsidies is affected by the quality of startups that are induced to apply.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123637619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 36
Dead Poet&Apos;S Property - How Does Copyright Influence Price? 已故诗人的财产——版权如何影响价格?
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2170447
Xing Li, Megan J. MacGarvie, Petra Moser
{"title":"Dead Poet&Apos;S Property - How Does Copyright Influence Price?","authors":"Xing Li, Megan J. MacGarvie, Petra Moser","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2170447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2170447","url":null,"abstract":"This article exploits a differential increase in copyright under the UK Copyright Act of 1814 - in favor of books by dead authors – to examine the influence of longer copyrights on price. Difference-in-differences analyses, which compare changes in the price of books by dead and living authors, indicate a substantial increase in price in response to an extension in copyright length. By comparison, placebo regressions for books by dead authors that did not benefit from the extension indicate no differential increase. Historical evidence suggests that longer copyrights increase price by improving publishers’ ability to practice intertemporal price discrimination.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"104 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116465764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
The Ongoing Evolution of Us Retail: A Format Tug-of-War 美国零售业的持续演变:一场形式的拔河
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI: 10.1257/JEP.29.4.89
Ali Hortaçsu, C. Syverson
{"title":"The Ongoing Evolution of Us Retail: A Format Tug-of-War","authors":"Ali Hortaçsu, C. Syverson","doi":"10.1257/JEP.29.4.89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/JEP.29.4.89","url":null,"abstract":"The past 15-20 years have seen substantial and visible changes in the way US retail business is conducted. Explanations about what is happening in the retail sector have been dominated by two powerful and not fully consistent narratives: a prediction that retail sales will migrate online and physical retail will be virtually extinguished, and a prediction that future shoppers will almost all be heading to giant physical stores like warehouse clubs and supercenters. Although online retail will surely continue to be a force shaping the sector going forward and may yet emerge as the dominant mode of commerce in the retail sector in the United States, its time for supremacy has not yet arrived. We discuss evidence indicating that the warehouse clubs/supercenter format has had a greater effect on the shape of retail over the past 15-20 years We begin with an overview of the retail sector as a whole, which over the long term has been shrinking as a share of total US economic activity and in terms of relative employment share. The retail sector has experienced stronger-than average productivity growth, but this has not been accompanied by commensurate wage growth. After discussing the important e-commerce and warehouse clubs/supercenters segments, we look more broadly at changes across the structure of the retail sector, including scale, concentration, dynamism, and degree of urbanization. Finally, we consider the likely future course of the retail sector.","PeriodicalId":276603,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126185531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 103
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