Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS最新文献_第10页

Risk forecasting using heritage-based surrogate data 使用基于遗产的替代数据进行风险预测

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285517

J. Fragola, E. Collins

{"title":"Risk forecasting using heritage-based surrogate data","authors":"J. Fragola, E. Collins","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285517","url":null,"abstract":"While an individual failure analysis approach has been recommended for the space shuttle program, [Gehman, HW, Jr et al., August 2003] other more heuristic and far simpler approaches have also been used in the past to provide useful information to decision-makers when failure data is scant. This paper provides an example of visual mapping using heritage data might be used to discover problems in complex systems before they lead to failure, using the Saturn launcher family as an example. An effort will be undertaken to further analyze the available data in an attempt to answer the question: \"What would have been the risk of future launches if the Saturn launcher had continued in service?\" The motivation is to try to show how the use of heritage data, when properly adjusted for growth and combined with scant data on the program under investigation produces estimates consistent with the use of properly analyzed precursor data. Further, an investigation was conducted as to whether heritage and precursor studies can provide considerably better insight than scant failure data alone. On the basis of the findings, it is suggested that heritage and precursor estimates may be more realistic and consistent with launcher history than the more optimistic estimates produced from traditional bottom-up approaches.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126262020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Optimal design of a condition-based maintenance model 基于状态的维修模型的优化设计

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285501

S. Amari, L. McLaughlin

{"title":"Optimal design of a condition-based maintenance model","authors":"S. Amari, L. McLaughlin","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285501","url":null,"abstract":"System performance and associated gain can be improved by using efficient maintenance policies. The latest developments in maintenance models include condition-based maintenance strategies. This paper presents a condition-based maintenance model for a deteriorating system. Deterioration can be defined as a process where the important parameters of a system gradually worsen, and if left unattended, the process leads to deterioration failure. In this paper, we consider a discrete stage deterioration, where the first stage is a good stage and the last stage is the failed stage. Failure of the system can be identified immediately, and the system is restored through corrective maintenance. The system is subjected to periodic inspection that identifies the condition of deterioration. After an inspection, based on the degree of deterioration (system condition), a preventive maintenance is performed or no action is taken. Both corrective and preventive maintenance bring the system to an ''as good as new\" stage. Using Markov chains, this paper presents closed-form analytical solutions for the performance measures of the model. This paper also presents algorithms to find the optimal model parameters that maximize the system availability.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126324838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 78

Maintenance cost analysis of a two-component parallel system with failure interaction 具有故障交互作用的双组份并联系统维修成本分析

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285451

R. I. Zequeira, C. Bérenguer

引用次数: 6

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for the next generation launch technology (NGLT) program turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) architecture 6 launch vehicle 下一代发射技术(NGLT)项目基于涡轮联合循环(TBCC)架构6运载火箭的概率风险评估(PRA)方法

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285513

M. H. Packard, E. Zampino

{"title":"Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for the next generation launch technology (NGLT) program turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) architecture 6 launch vehicle","authors":"M. H. Packard, E. Zampino","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285513","url":null,"abstract":"The NASA Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) Program is evaluating various concepts for less expensive and reduced-risk access to space. Critical to these goals are more reliable and easily maintained vehicles, with high fidelity integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) systems, rapid turn-around time and dual-use technology. The initial application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on the turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) architecture 6 concept has helped to define key assumptions necessary to make the development of the architecture 6 concept successful. While the final figures of merit (FOMs) will be based on successfully developing and testing the vehicle, preliminary FOMs can be used now for basic trades between propulsion and staging concepts, thus providing a valuable tool to evaluate the overall trade space between highly divergent concepts. Reliability analysis, probabilistic design methods (PDM), and probabilistic risk assessment can be integrated to evaluate overall systems architecture, a complete mission model, and a fleet logistics model. In addition, the PRA may be used to evaluate and compare a high and low energy crew escape system.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126821770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The reliability case in the REMM methodology REMM方法中的可靠性案例

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285418

J.A. Jones, J. Marshall, B. Newman

{"title":"The reliability case in the REMM methodology","authors":"J.A. Jones, J. Marshall, B. Newman","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285418","url":null,"abstract":"Recent thinking within reliability practice has led to a move away from the specification of a set of prescriptive methods that the supplier must undertake to a co-operative approach which requires the exchange of information between the customer and the supplier in order to provide assurance that the product will meet the reliability requirements. This approach is known as the \"reliability case\" and it has some parallels with, but is not the same as, the better known \"safety case\" as used particularly in the aerospace and nuclear industries The reliability case approach is being supported by the UK Ministry of Defence, who originated the idea and have used it as a basis for their reliability standard documents and current practices and also by some civil aerospace companies. It is felt by the companies in the REMM programme that in the longer term the reliability case will become a more often quoted reliability requirement with commonly used MTBF becoming an just element of the requirements. Generally however the aerospace industry has been in something of a quandary about how to react to this sea change in thinking and has been struggling to decide what an appropriate response to a request to a reliability case should be. The holistic approach used by the REMM methodology is ideal suited to provide the basis for a reliability case and this is seen as the ultimate output from the REMM method. To this end the REMM partners have been developing a generic approach to the case. This paper will describe this generic REMM consortium response to a reliability case and how it will be generated by the REMM methodology.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"336 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124727376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Behavioural study of the general renewal process 一般更新过程的行为学研究

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285454

A. Jacopino, F. Groen, A. Mosleh

引用次数: 11

Assess your program for probability of success using the reliability scorecard tool 使用可靠性记分卡工具评估您的程序的成功概率

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285519

R. J. Miller, J. Green, D. Herrmann, D. Heer

{"title":"Assess your program for probability of success using the reliability scorecard tool","authors":"R. J. Miller, J. Green, D. Herrmann, D. Heer","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285519","url":null,"abstract":"Newly developed systems are typically subjected to customer observed tests to demonstrate specified parameters such as functional performance, operational environments, and reliability. Systems presented to such tests prematurely may experience excessive failures, resulting in cost and schedule problems as well as customer dissatisfaction. A leading indicator is needed which can be applied early in the program and periodically during development to project the likelihood of reliability success. The reliability scorecard is an assessment of reliability program tasks, both planned and completed, that has been correlated to achievement of customer required field reliability. The reliability scorecard is not a different, better, higher fidelity reliability prediction. This paper describes how the scorecard was developed and how it can be used to forecast, with confidence, the likelihood of meeting field reliability requirements during customer observed trials. The scorecard concept is applicable to commercial and military programs. It has been validated on diverse programs within Raytheon representing radar systems, airborne and ground electrooptics (EO) systems, mobile satellite terminals, and missiles for the army, navy, and air force.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130519267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

The challenge of space nuclear propulsion and power systems reliability 空间核动力推进和动力系统可靠性的挑战

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285487

E. Zampino, R. Cataldo

{"title":"The challenge of space nuclear propulsion and power systems reliability","authors":"E. Zampino, R. Cataldo","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285487","url":null,"abstract":"In October of 2002, The Power and Propulsion Office and The Risk Management Office of NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio began developing the reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) engineering approach for the Space Nuclear Propulsion and Power Systems Project. The objective of the Space Nuclear Power and Propulsion Project is to provide safe and reliable propulsion and power systems for planetary missions. The safety of the crew, ground personnel, and the public has to be the highest priority of the RAM engineering approach for nuclear powered space systems. The project will require a top level reliability goal for substantial mission success in the range from 0.95 to 0.98. In addition, the probability of safe operation without loss of crew, vehicle, or danger to the public, cannot be less than 0.9999. The achievement of these operational goals will require the combined application of many RAM engineering techniques. These include: advanced reliability, availability, and maintainability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment that includes hardware, software, and human induced faults, accelerated life testing, parts stress analysis, and selective end to end sub-system testing. Design strategy must involve the selection of parts and materials specifically to withstand the stresses of prolonged operation in the space and planetary environments with a wide design margin. Interplanetary distances and resulting signal time delay drive the need for autonomous control of major system functions including redundancy management.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"432 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133918451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Application of decision support metrics for effective risk-informed asset management 应用决策支持指标进行有效的风险知情资产管理

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285515

J. Liming

引用次数: 1

Software complexity factor in software reliability assessment 软件可靠性评估中的软件复杂性因素

Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS Pub Date : 2004-08-24 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285446

Meng-Lai Yin, J. Peterson, R. Arellano

引用次数: 8