Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"The (Option-)Value of Overstaying","authors":"Romuald Méango","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3745562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3745562","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English abstract:</b> Asylum seekers with a rejected application account for three out of five illegal migrants in Germany. The objective of this paper is to calculate asylum seekers’ ex ante returns on overstaying. It takes advantage of a unique survey designed to permit estimation of a structural model about the decision to overstay. The proposed model sees this decision as a utility maximization problem and translates it into a generalized Roy model with uncertainty about the final sector choice. As an important contribution to the literature, the paper proposes mild conditions for nonparametric identification of several objects of interest, including population distribution of ex ante pecuniary benefits, non-pecuniary costs, surpluses, and option-value created by the chance of becoming regularized in the future. Estimation is conducted using a semiparametric estimation procedure. Ex ante surpluses of overstaying are predominantly positive but very heterogeneous in the population. The pecuniary benefits explain a modest part of these surpluses. In contrast, the option-value is an important component of the expected returns. Afghan asylum seekers are ready to spend a long time with a precarious status to eventually obtain the right to stay and the amenities associated with it.<br><br><b>German abstract:</b> Asylsuchende mit einem abgelehnten Gesuch stellen drei von fünf illegalen Migranten in Deutschland. Ziel dieses Papiers ist es, die Ex-ante-Rendite von Asylsuchenden bei Überschreitung der Aufenthaltsdauer zu berechnen. Es stützt sich auf eine einzigartige Erhebung, die die Schätzung eines strukturellen Modells über die Entscheidung zum Überschreiten der Aufenthaltsdauer ermöglicht. Das vorgeschlagene Modell sieht diese Entscheidung als ein Problem der Nutzenmaximierung und übersetzt sie in ein generalisiertes Roy-Modell mit Unsicherheit über die endgültige Wahl des Sektors. Als einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Literatur schlägt das Papier moderate Bedingungen für die nichtparametrische Identifizierung mehrerer Objekte von Interesse vor, einschließlich der Verteilung von ex ante geldwerten Vorteilen in der Population, nichtmonetären Kosten, Überschüssen und dem Optionswert, der durch die Chance des zukünftigen Erhalts eines Aufenthaltstitels entsteht. Die Schätzung wird mit einem semiparametrischen Schätzverfahren durchgeführt. Die Ex-ante-Überschüsse von Aufenthaltsüberschreitungen sind überwiegend positiv, aber in der Bevölkerung sehr heterogen. Die geldwerten Vorteile erklären einen bescheidenen Teil dieser Überschüsse. Im Gegensatz dazu ist der Optionswert eine wichtige Komponente der erwarteten Erträge. Afghanische Asylsuchende sind bereit, lange Zeit mit einem prekären Status zu verbringen, um schließlich das Bleiberecht und die damit verbundenen Vergünstigungen zu erhalten.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122121941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Double Trouble: The Burden of Child Rearing and Working on Maternal Mortality","authors":"Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Helmut Farbmacher, R. Guber, J. Vikström","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3486327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3486327","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English Abstract:</b> We document increased old-age mortality rates among Swedish twin mothers compared to non-twin mothers. Results are based on administrative data on mortality for the years 1990 to 2010. We argue that twins are an unplanned shock to fertility in the cohorts of older women considered. Deaths due to lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart attacks, which are associated with stress during life, are significantly increased. Stratifying the sample by education and pension income shows the highest increase in mortality rates among highly educated mothers and those with above-median pension income. These results are consistent with the existence of a double burden from child rearing and working on mothers’ health.<br><br><b>German Abstract:</b> Wir beobachten eine angestiegene Sterblichkeitsrate für Mütter von Zwillingen im Vergleich zu Müttern ohne Zwillinge. Hierfür haben wir administrative Daten in Schweden von 1990 bis 2010 ausgewertet. Zwillingsgeburten führen zu einem unerwarteten Anstieg der Kinderzahl. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass stressbedingte Krankheiten signifikant häufiger als Todesursachen bei den Müttern von Zwillingen angegeben wurden. Stratifziert nach Bildung und Renteneinkommen sind die größten Unterschiede bei Müttern mit hohem Bildungsstand und hohem Renteneinkommen zu beobachten. Diese Ergebnisse deuten auf eine Doppelbelastung durch Kindererziehung und Arbeit für die mütterliche Gesundheit hin.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"222 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121238195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie (The Costs of the Double Threshold)","authors":"A. Börsch-Supan, J. Rausch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3169240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3169240","url":null,"abstract":"<b>German Abstract:</b> Im Koalitionsvertrag vom 14.03.2018 wird angekündigt, die Leistungen und Beiträge der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch eine so genannte „doppelte Haltelinie“ festzuschreiben. Konkret soll das Netto-Standardrentenniveau vor Steuern nicht unter 48% absinken und gleichzeitig der Beitragssatz nicht über 20% ansteigen. Diese Haltelinien sollen zunächst bis 2025 gelten. Da in dieser Zeit die Zahl der Rentenempfänger stark steigen wird, wird eine Finanzierungslücke entstehen. Hierzu sagt der Koalitionsvertrag, dass deren Finanzierung “bei Bedarf durch Steuermittel sicher[zu]stellen” ist. Dieses Papier quantifiziert den entsprechenden Finanzierungsbedarf und rechnet ihn in Mehrwertsteuerpunkte um. Der Finanzierungsbedarf ist bis 2025 relativ gering, erhöht sich dann jedoch dramatisch. Allein in den folgenden fünf Jahren bis 2030 müsste die Mehrwertsteuer über den normalen Bundeszuschuss hinaus um ca. 3 Prozentpunkte angehoben werden, langfristig sogar um zwischen 6 und 7 Prozentpunkte.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> In their coalition agreement of March 14th 2018, the parties of the newly established German government announced to establish fixed thresholds for the replacement rate and the contribution rate of the German Public Pension System (“double threshold”). Specifically, the net standard pension level before taxes will be legislated not to fall below 48% while at the same time the contribution rate must not exceed 20%. These thresholds shall apply at least until 2025. Since the number of pension recipients will strongly increase and the number of contributor decreases in the near future, a funding gap will emerge. The coalition agreement states that this gap shall be filled by taxes. This paper quantifies the financial gap and expresses it in terms of value added tax points. The gap will remain relatively low until 2025 but will rise dramatically afterwards. In the following five years only, the value added tax would have to be increased by 3 percentage points over and above the already expected rising federal subsidy. In the long run an even higher increase between 6 and 7 percentage points would be necessary to finance the emerging gap.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":" 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132075895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"15 Jahre Riester - Eine Bilanz (15 Years of the Riester Pension Scheme - Taking Stock)","authors":"A. Börsch-Supan, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Nicolas Goll, C. Maier","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2879377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2879377","url":null,"abstract":"15 Jahre nach der Einfuhrung der Riester-Rente ziehen wir Bilanz und untersuchen, was die Riester-Rente bislang erreicht hat und welche Handlungsoptionen zur Verfugung stehen. Die Riester-Rente ist seit ihrer Einfuhrung auf breite Resonanz gestosen. So stehen auf der Angebotsseite mehr als 5000 verschiedene Riester-Vertrage zur Verfugung und auf der Nachfrageseite konnen 2016 16,5 Mio. abgeschlossene Vertrage gezahlt werden. 44% der forderberechtigten Haushalte haben mindestens einen Riester-Vertrag, besonders unter Familien mit Kindern ist die Verbreitung hoch. Zwar besitzen nur etwa 20% der Haushalte im untersten Einkommensfunftel Riester-Vertrage. Dennoch kann hier nicht grundsatzlich von einem „Scheitern“ gesprochen werden, da die Riester-Rente unter Niedrigeinkommensverdienern die mit Abstand am starksten verbreitete Form der zusatzlichen Altersvorsorge ist. Zu den verfehlten Zielen zahlt allerdings die Tatsache, dass auch nach 15 Jahren keine flachendeckende Verbreitung erreicht werden konnte. Andere Kritikpunkte sind die fehlende Markttransparenz, hohe Kosten und die Anwendung spezieller Sterbetafeln. Auch durch die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB und die damit verbundenen hohen Garantiekosten wird vermehrt Kritik laut. Generell kann bei der Riester-Rente weder von einem Scheitern noch von einem universellen Erfolg gesprochen werden. Mogliche Handlungsoptionen reichen von einer allgemeinen Forderberechtigung und verbesserten Informationen, hin zur Einfuhrung von Standardprodukten.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127090412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Note on the Stock-Wise Utility Function Used in Their Option-Value Analysis","authors":"A. Börsch-Supan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2663949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2663949","url":null,"abstract":"The option value of postponing retirement is the difference between the utility when retiring at the age that maximizes utility minus the utility when retiring now. This note shows that a utility function which depends only weakly on the value of leisure such as the utility function proposed by Stock and Wise (1990) and used in many applications (see Gruber and Wise, various issues) makes this difference flat relative to a more leisure-sensitive utility function. This explains the poor results observed in many European countries which have participated in the Gruber-Wise exercise where the option value was based on the Stock-Wise utility function and in which leisure (here: early retirement) is much more highly valued than in the United States.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116137852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gleitender Übergang in die Rente durch Flexibilisierung der Teilrente (Gradual Transition to Retirement with Flexible Partial Retirement)","authors":"Martin Gasche, C. Krolage","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2006439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006439","url":null,"abstract":"Against the background of the increasing legal retirement age, broader opportunities for a smooth transition to retirement are often demanded for elderly workers who are disinclined or unable to continue working full-time. This study compares different options for a transition to retirement. It becomes evident that from an insurant’s point of view, the far more popular option for early retirement called 'Altersteilzeit' has no significant advantages in comparison to the barely known partial retirement (Teilrente). The biggest disadvantages of partial retirement are the three fixed pension levels (Teilrentenstufen) and the intricate calculation of supplementary income limits. Abolishing fixed pension levels might make partial retirement and earning supplementary income significantly more attractive, possibly superseding the Altersteilzeit option. Our proposed flexible partial retirement (flexible Teilrente) is compared to the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affair’s proposition called 'Kombirente.'","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"129 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124243044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Optimum Structure For Government Debt","authors":"Wolfgang Kuhle","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1534651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1534651","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the structural differences between implicit and explicit government debt in a two-generations-overlapping model with stochastic factor-prices. If a government can issue safe bonds and new claims to wage-indexed social security to service a given initial obligation, there exists a set of Pareto-efficient ways to do so. This set is characterized by the conflicting interests of the current young and the yet unborn generations regarding the allocation of factor-price risks. However, it is shown that there will always exist a simple intertemporal compensation mechanism which allows to reconcile these conflicting interests. This compensation mechanism narrows the set of Pareto-efficient debt structures until only one remains. This result hinges on the double-incomplete markets structure of stochastic OLG models where households can neither trade consumption loans nor factor-price risks privately.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125333972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sharing Demographic Risk: Who is Afraid of the Baby Bust?","authors":"A. Ludwig, M. Reiter","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1444442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1444442","url":null,"abstract":"We model the optimal reaction of a public PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex-ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules that mimic the pension systems observed in the real world. The model, in particular the pension system, is calibrated to the German economy. The objective of the social planner is calibrated such that the size of the German pension system was optimal under the economic and demographic conditions of the 1960s. We find that the German system comes relatively close to the second-best solution, especially when labor market distortions are correctly modelled. Furthermore, the German system and a constant contribution rate lead to a lower variability of lifetime utility than does the second best policy. The recent baby-boom/baby-bust cycle leads to welfare losses of about 5% of lifetime consumption for some cohorts. We argue that it is crucial for these results to model correctly the labor market distortions arising from the pension system.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123215254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Societal Determinants of Productive Aging in Europe (Gesellschaftliche Determinanten Produktiven Alterns in Europa)","authors":"K. Hank, Stephanie Stuck","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1444905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1444905","url":null,"abstract":"Ziel des vorliegenden Beitrages ist es, zu einem besseren Verstandnis der gesellschaftlichen Determinanten produktiven Alterns jenseits der Erwerbstatigkeit beizutragen. Auf Basis von Daten des Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) und unter Verwendung logistischer Mehrebenen-modelle zeigen wir, dass ein substantieller Teil der Varianz zwischen den elf hier betrachteten Landern hinsichtlich des privaten Engagements in den Bereichen Ehrenamt, Netzwerkhilfe und Pflege auf Unterschiede in der Bevolkerungskomposition zuruck gefuhrt werden kann. Daruber hinaus tragen auch die drei von uns untersuchten Makroindikatoren erheblich zur Erklarung des Varianzanteils auf der Landerebene bei. Wahrend gesellschaftliche Altersbilder jedoch keinen signifikanten Zusammenhang mit ehrenamtlichem Engagement, Netzwerkhilfe und Pflege aufweisen, werden unsere Hypothesen bezuglich eines positiven Zusammenhangs zwischen politischer und religioser Freiheit sowie starkerem wohlfahrtsstaatlichem Engagement und der individuellen Neigung Alterer zur Ausubung informeller produktiver Tatigkeiten weitgehend bestatigt. Aus den vorgestellten empirischen Befunden werden abschliesend sozialpolitisch und sozialwissenschaftlich relevante Schlussfolgerungen fur die Aktivierung bislang ungenutzter produktiver Potenziale in der alteren Bevolkerung gezogen. This paper aims to contribute to improving our understanding of the societal determinants of productive aging beyond formal employment. Based on data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and applying logistic multilevel models, our analysis shows that a substantial portion of the variance between the eleven countries in our study with regard to private engagement in volunteering, informal helping, and caring is due to differences in population composition. In addition, the three macro-level indicators in our study contribute to a further substantial reduction in the between-country variance. While societal images of aging do not bear a statistically significant association with volunteer work, informal help, or care, our hypotheses concerning a positive relationship between greater political and religious freedom as well as welfare state services and older individuals' propensity to engage in informal productive activities are largely confirmed. We close with conclusions relevant for social policy and social science, regarding the activation of so far unused productive potentials in the elder population.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126869332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Comparable are Different Measures of Self-Rated Health? Evidence from Five European Countries","authors":"Hendrik Jürges, M. Avendano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1445365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1445365","url":null,"abstract":"Self-rated health (SRH) is a common health measurement in international research. Yet different versions of this item are often applied. This study compares the US (United States) version (from excellent to poor) and the EU (European) version (from very good to very bad) of SRH, and examines differences in their associations with demographic and objective health variables. Data were drawn from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), comprising information from 11,622 respondents aged 50 years and over in five countries. Respondents were presented with both the EU and US versions. Information was collected on basic demographics and health variables including chronic diseases, symptoms, functional limitations and depression. Firstly, the distribution of each version of the SRH item was assessed, and both relative and literal concordance was examined. Subsequently, multivariate regression analysis was used to assess differences in the associations of both items with demographic and health indicators. The US version has a more symmetric distribution and smaller variance than the EU version. Although the EU version discriminates better at the negative end, the US version shows better discrimination at the negative end of the scale. 69% of respondents provided literally concordant answers, while only about one third provided relatively concordant answers. Overall, however, less than 10% of respondents were discordant in either sense. Furthermore, the two versions were strongly correlated (polychoric correlation = 0.88), had similar associations with demographics and health indicators, and showed a similar pattern of variation across countries. Health levels based on different versions of the self-rated health item are not directly comparable and require rescaling of items. However, both versions represent parallel assessments of the same latent health variable. We did not find evidence that the EU version is preferable to the US version as standard measure of SRH in European countries.","PeriodicalId":253435,"journal":{"name":"Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Discussion Paper Series","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116263228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}