Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Who are the First Users of a Newly-Emerging International Currency? A Demand-Side Study of Chinese Renminbi Internationalization","authors":"Hyoung‐kyu Chey, Geun-young Kim, Dong Hyun Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2890352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2890352","url":null,"abstract":"Who are the first users of a newly-internationalizing currency? This issue, crucial to understanding the dynamics of the emergence of a new international monetary order, remains long underexplored in the existing literature, which tends to adopt a supply-side approach analyzing mainly the international currency issuers. Our study addresses this important question, with a focus on the case of the Chinese renminbi, by employing a demand-side approach examining the international currency users through generalized ordered logistic regression analysis. Our primary argument is that a state hosting a major global financial center—a condition largely independent of influence from countries issuing international currencies—is likely to be more interested in enhancing its use of the renminbi, implying thereby that global financial institutions and the related inter-state rivalries among international currency users may play crucial roles in the shaping of a new international monetary order. We in addition find significant impacts on a state’s interest in renminbi use resulting from its institutional economic cooperation with China through a preferential trade agreement or a bilateral investment treaty, but that a country’s mere trade and investment integration with China does not meaningfully affect its government’s support for renminbi use.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116305754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Testing the Labor Market Dualism in Korea","authors":"Sungyup Chung, Sunyoung Jung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2850231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2850231","url":null,"abstract":"The existence of the dual labor market in Korea is tested under the two different definitions of the labor market dualism. First, the estimation results from widely used tools such as Heckman’s sample selection model support the existence of two wage equations, advocating the presence of labor market dualism in Korea. Second, the labor market dualism index suggested by Hudson (2007) supports that there is some degree of bifurcation between the good job conditions and bad job conditions.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115686742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Relation between Monetary and Macroprudential Policy","authors":"Jong-Ku Kang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2799514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2799514","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies with different levels of cooperation among policy authorities: non-cooperation, full cooperation, and leader-follower relation. In non-cooperation, each policy authority’s optimal response is to tighten its policy measures when the inflation gap, the output gap and the credit gap expand, and when other authorities’ policy measures are loosened. This indicates that the two policies are substitutes for each other. The condition for the response functions to converge to a Nash equilibrium and the speed of convergence depend on the authorities’ preferences and the economic structure. If the financial supervisory authority (FSA) puts greater importance on the output gap, the probability of non-convergence increases and the speed of convergence declines even when the condition of convergence is satisfied. When the policy authorities fully cooperate with each other, they can establish an optimal combination of policy responses to each of the three gaps.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121128094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies: Breaks, Asymmetries and Fundamentals","authors":"Geun-young Kim, Hail Park, Peter Tillmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2711579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2711579","url":null,"abstract":"The recent implementation of unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies and the preparations for an eventual return to normalization have renewed the interest in spillover effects of monetary policy on emerging market economies. This paper estimates a series of VAR-X models for a set of 10 emerging economies, that is, VARs in which U.S. policy enters exogenously. The contribution of this paper is (1) to use an identified shock component of the U.S. (shadow) Federal Funds rate as a consistent policy instrument for conventional and unconventional policies, (2) to account for changes in the transmission of U.S. monetary policy over time, (3) to quantify asymmetries in the transmission of tightening and easing shocks, and (4) to relate the exposure of emerging countries with macroeconomic fundamentals. The results point to substantially nonlinear and asymmetric spillover effects, which pose challenges to policymakers.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115597445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deflation and Monetary Policy","authors":"Barry Eichengreen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2674973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2674973","url":null,"abstract":"There is little agreement about deflation as a problem for economic growth and financial stability. Economists may question it as a transitory phenomenon or whether monetary policy can solve it without more serious risks. Historical experience generally confirms that it should be a central-bank priority and does not solve itself. Once deflation is under way, monetary policy can return inflation to positive target levels. If that is not achieved, banks need to do more. If doing more threatens financial stability, macroprudential tools are appropriate. If a central bank runs out of government securities to buy or worries about liquidity in the government bond market, there are other assets to buy. If it worries about purchasing other assets, a helicopter drop of money is an option. If that drop targets productive public infrastructure investments, they not only can proceed without increasing public debt but also can actually reduce it.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115727743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"News Media Coverage of Corporate Tax Avoidance and Corporate Tax Reporting","authors":"Soojin Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2603344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2603344","url":null,"abstract":"Drawing upon media agenda-setting theory and previous studies in organizational impression management, this paper empirically investigates the influence of tax avoidance news on corporate tax reporting. This study is based on the pronounced discontinuity in the amount of news articles related to tax avoidance in the United Kingdom over two periods (2010-2011 and 2012-2013). A difference-in-differences design is employed in order to enable a comparison of the media effects on those firms that have been reported in tax avoidance news versus those without media attention. Using a sample of annual reports of UK FTSE 100 companies across the period 2010 to 2013, I test the impact of tax avoidance news on quality and quantity of tax disclosure. The results suggest that the recent increase in media attention on tax avoidance does not stimulate firms to improve the quality and the quantity of tax disclosure in their corporate reporting. Rather, firms can be discouraged from discussing the most relevant tax items in their reporting, as shown in the case of financial firms which were the subject of the largest amount of tax avoidance news.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133265612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"예측조합 �? 밀�?�함수�? �?�한 소비�?물가 �?승률 전�? (Forecasting CPI Inflation Using Combination of Point Forecast and Density Forecast)","authors":"Hyun Hak Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2596385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2596385","url":null,"abstract":"Forecast combinations and density forecast have frequently been found in empirical research to produce better prediction performance on average than methods based on the best single model. Density forecastan estimate of the probability distribution of the possible future values of that variablehas received attention in the forecast literature. This paper combines point forecast and density forecast to predict Korean CPI inflation and compares the performance of each forecast with various models including factor models, shrinkage models, and bayesian model averaging. We find that the more models included in point forecast combinations leads to the better performance of the combinations than the benchmark autoregressive model, regardless of the independent performance of a single model. We also find that combinations of more models provide a result robust to sample periods. Density forecasts and their combinations present the direction of future inflation and predictive densities. We expect that forecast combination and density forecast can provide better performance with more disciplines, for example, combining more various models and mixing different frequency data models.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"270 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134378549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Central, Traditional and Shadow Banking in the Multiple Deposit Creation Scheme","authors":"Byoung-Ki Kim","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2579540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2579540","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of shadow banks on monetary aggregates, credit to private agents, and inter-financial institution transactions by incorporating shadow banks into a simple multiple deposit creation scheme. The simple scheme is carefully modified and extended to reflect leverages taken by shadow banks, proprietary transactions by commercial banks and the interest rate-oriented monetary policy operational framework. This paper shows that transactions between commercial and shadow banks can be determined somewhat endogenously although the model is completely deterministic, and as such, interbank transactions can grow enormously while the size of broad money and credit to private agents does not increase much. In this way, shadow banks contribute to the build-up of systemic risk. This paper also discusses policy implications of the findings.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125459574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"�?�구고령화와 정년연장 연구(세대 간 중첩모형(OLG)�?� �?�용한 정량 분�? (Population Ageing and Extension of Retirement Age (Quantitative Analysis Using Overlapping Generation Model))","authors":"JaeHwa Hong, T. Kang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2592788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2592788","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 「세대 간 중첩모형(OLG)」을 이용하여 사망률 및 출산율 저하로 인한 인구고령화가 한국 경제에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 분석하였다. 또한 고령화된 경제에서 정년연장 정책의 시행이 거시경제 전반에 미치는 효과를 살펴보았다. 사망률이 하락하는 경우, 기대수명의 증가로 장기화된 은퇴 후 소비에 대비하여 개인의 저축이 늘어나고, 상대적으로 저축률이 높은 장년 및 고령층의 인구 비율이 증가함에 따라 총자본량이 크게 증가한다. 반면 사망률 하락으로 인한 인구증가의 대부분이 60세 이상 고령층에 집중됨에 따라 총노동투입량의 증가는 미미하다. 출산율이 하락하는 경우, 총인구의 감소와 청·장년층 인구비율의 하락으로 총 노동투입량이 대폭 감소할 뿐만 아니라 총인구의 감소로 총저축도 크게 감소하여 총자본량도 큰 폭 하락한다. 한국경제를 대상으로 모수설정을 통해 사망률(전 연령의 사망확률이 매년 1%씩 하락)과 출산율(인구증가율이 0.7%에서 0.3%로 하락)이 동시에 하락하는 고령화 경제의 영향을 살펴본 결과 총노동투입량의 대폭 감소로 총생산량이 약 15% 정도 하락하며, 은퇴자의 증가와 청년층 인구 감소로 연금재정이 크게 악화되는 것으로 나타났다. 고령화경제의 부정적 영향에 대응하여 정년연장(3년) 정책을 시행할 경우, 총 노동투입량이 증가할 뿐만 아니라 은퇴자의 저축량 증가로 인해 총자본량도 증가하여 인구고령화의 부정적 영향이 일정 부분 완화되는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이 경우 연금재정의 적자폭도 상당부분 개선되었다.English Abstract: This paper studies the quantitative effects of population ageing caused mainly by declines in fertility and mortality rates in the Korean economy. It also examines the overall macroeconomic effects of the extension of mandatory retirement age on an ageing economy. A decrease in mortality rate raises aggregate capital input in the economy since individuals save more for retirement due to the longer life expectancy and the enlarged proportion of the middle- and older-aged population in the total population. In contrast, an increase in aggregate labor is negligible since most of the population increases are attributable to the increase in the population over 60, most of whom are out of the labor force. A decrease in the fertility rate reduces both aggregate capital and labor inputs because of the reduction in total population, especially in young and middle aged groups. With a reasonable calibration (the mortality rate decreases by 1% a year; and the population growth rate declines from 0.7% to 0.3%), our model forecasts that the aggregate production will decrease by 15% and the pension system will run a big budget deficit with more retirees and smaller number of workers. The model also predicts that the introduction of extension of retirement age (3 years, from 57 to 60) can alleviate the negative effects of population ageing by increasing both aggregate capital and labor inputs and reducing pension deficits.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125429937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"규제가 노�?��?산성�? 미치는 �?향:한국�?� 산업패�? �?료를 �?�용한 실�?분�? (Effect of Regulation on Labor Productivity: Empirical Analysis Using a Panel of Korean Industries)","authors":"Dongyeol Lee, Jonghan Lee, Jong-Il Choe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2592786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2592786","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 우리나라의 산업별 규제지수를 추계하고 이를 이용하여 패널공적분 검정과 패널공적분 벡터 추정을 통해 규제가 산업별 노동생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 패널공적분 검정에서 산업별 노동생산성은 1인당 자본스톡, 1인당 연구개발자본스톡 및 규제지수와 장기적으로 안정적 관계가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 규제와 노동생산성간 장기균형 관계에 대한 패널공적분 벡터를 추정한 결과, 경제규제지수는 장기적으로 노동생산성에 부정적인 영향을 미치지만 사회규제지수는 노동생산성에 유의한 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석결과는 사회적 규제보다 경제적 규제를 완화하는 것이 노동생산성 향상에 보다 효과적일 수 있음을 시사한다. English Abstract: We measure a regulatory stringency index across Korean industries and analyze the effects of regulation on labor productivity through the test and estimation of panel cointegration. Panel cointegration test shows that there exists a statistically significant cointegration among labor productivity, per capita physical capital stock, per capita R&D capital stock, and regulatory stringency index. Furthermore, the estimation of panel cointegration vector shows that, when the regulatory stringency index is classified by the characteristics of regulation (i.e., economic, social, and administrative), the economic regulatory stringency has significantly negative impacts on labor productivity while the social regulatory stringency does not affect productivity significantly. The empirical evidence implies that alleviating economic regulation rather than social regulation is more likely to be effective in enhancing labor productivity in Korea.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115102876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}