Atmospheric Environment最新文献

{"title":"A Bayesian technique for quantifying methane emissions using vehicle-mounted sensors with a Gaussian plume model","authors":"Daniel C. Blackmore ,&nbsp;Jean-Pierre Hickey ,&nbsp;Augustine Wigle ,&nbsp;Kirk Osadetz ,&nbsp;Kyle J. Daun","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the uncertainties associated with methane emission estimates is crucial for prioritizing leak repair interventions, enforcing environmental regulations, and modeling climate change. This paper presents a model-based Bayesian approach for describing the uncertainties associated with methane emissions estimates derived from vehicle-based concentration measurements, combined with the Gaussian plume dispersion model (GPM) and anemometry data. The approach begins by deriving a probability density function (pdf) that defines the likelihood of measuring a given release rate conditional on the true release rate. The width of the likelihood pdf is dominated by the GPM model error, which is explored using computational fluid dynamics simulations. The likelihood pdf is combined with a prior pdf that encodes what is known about the emission before the measurement to yield the posterior pdf, which comprehensively defines what is known about the release rate based on measurements and prior information. The technique is assessed by comparing releases inferred from single plume transects with ground truth emission rates, and it is found that the 90% creditability interval contains the true release rate approximately 90% of the time. The Bayesian approach can also be used to optimize measurement paths and/or consider the limitations of these technologies with respect to atmospheric conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"344 ","pages":"Article 121002"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143308530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization and sources of volatile organic compounds in a provincial capital city of northern China in 2019–2024: Impact of public events","authors":"Haoxin Sui ,&nbsp;Houyong Zhang ,&nbsp;Yisheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Wenxin Tao ,&nbsp;Xing Peng ,&nbsp;Xuan Ge ,&nbsp;Sufan Zhang ,&nbsp;Ming Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaofei Qin ,&nbsp;Mingyue Du ,&nbsp;Jinhua Du ,&nbsp;Dasa Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 outbreak and the Beijing Winter Olympics provided an opportunity to study the impact of human activities on volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere. Continuous measurements of 117 VOC species were conducted in urban Ji'nan, the capital city of Shandong Province, North China Plain, from 2019 to 2024. The total volatile organic compound concentrations ranged from 30.7 ppbv to 41.7 ppbv, and the seasonal characteristics of VOCs were generally high in autumn and winter and low in spring and summer, with alkanes as the component with the highest percentage. The average VOC volume fraction increased by 24.8% after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to that before the outbreak, among which the concentrations of aromatics increased most markedly (334.7%), and those of alkanes increased by 95.2%. Alkenes, alkynes, halocarbons, and oxygenated VOCs showed decreasing trends. The volume fraction of each VOC species showed a decreasing trend during the Beijing Winter Olympics air quality guarantee period compared with the pre-Beijing Winter Olympics period, with a 16.7%–36.3% reduction rate. The positive matrix factorization model identified six sources: vehicle emission, industrial mixing sources, solvent use, oil and gas volatilization, biogenic and secondary sources, and combustion sources. Influenced by the resumption of work and production by enterprises after the COVID-19 pandemic, solvent use increased by 26.7% after the pandemic, and the contribution of diesel vehicle emissions was significant. After the pandemic, the contribution of industrial mixing sources decreased by 28.6%, whereas coal combustion sources increased by 5.3% compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. During the Beijing Winter Olympics air quality guarantee period, coal combustion sources and vehicle emission sources decreased by 11.6% and 6.5%, respectively, and contributions from industrial sources and biogenic and secondary sources increased by 13.2% and 6.4%, respectively, compared with those during the pre-Beijing Winter Olympics period. During the Beijing Winter Olympics air quality guarantee period, the results of the backward airflow trajectory, and potential source area analysis, showed a strong influence of air mass transmission in the southwest direction, and VOCs emissions from industrial sources had higher values in the southwest region. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, there were obvious ship sources from the long-range transmission of the near-coastal region in the Yellow Sea. However, in post-COVID-19, long-range transport contributions from ship sources vanished due to the upgrading of marine oils after implementing the DECA 2.0.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 121000"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mobile measurements of atmospheric decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) in Eastern China","authors":"Haifeng Yu ,&nbsp;Yunhua Chang ,&nbsp;Lin Cheng ,&nbsp;Wen Tan ,&nbsp;Liang Zhu ,&nbsp;Jianlin Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) is prevalent in European and North American urban air due to the use of personal care products. China accounts for 55% of global siloxane production, yet the atmospheric concentration and sources of D5 in China remain largely unexplored. Using the Vocus mobile laboratory, here we performed high time-resolved measurements of D5 along a north-south transect (∼700 km) in eastern China. Prior to reaching the destination, Nanjing Chemical Industry Park (NCIP), D5 concentration had a low variability of minute-mean concentration (2.6 ± 1.3 pptv). Population density didn't exhibit a correlation with D5 concentration (1-min average concentration) (<em>R</em>² = 0.06), whereas a significant correlation was observed between the city-scale population and D5 concentration (<em>R</em>² = 0.74). Concentrated spikes in D5 concentrations (peaking at 384.8 pptv per second) were observed around NCIP, home to nearly 400 energy and chemical companies. These D5 concentrations were highly correlated with agrochemical-related dichlorobenzenes (<em>R</em>² = 0.99) rather than other petrochemical-related tracers. Unlike developed countries, D5 in China's air may primarily originate from emissions released during production processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"344 ","pages":"Article 121001"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143355247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) on the physical processes of a dense fog episode: A case study using WRF model from the National Capital Region, India","authors":"Anie K Lal,&nbsp;Ravi Kumar Kunchala,&nbsp;Manju Mohan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid growth in population and urban development has attracted considerable scientific attention due to its impact on the local and regional atmospheric environment. Given its scientific significance, in this study, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the physical mechanisms underlying the impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes on the fog life cycle of a recent dense fog episode in January 2021. The model domain covers the Delhi National Capital Region (NCR) at a resolution of 2 km. We conducted two sensitivity experiments: The control run (CNTL), representing the current LULC, and the Experimental run (EXP), by integrating the land use conditions from 2004. Results from these experiments suggest that the model reasonably reproduces the near-surface meteorological conditions and vertical profiles during the severe fog episode. Over the past two decades, urban and built-up areas and dryland croplands increased by 119.73% and 118.97%, most of which were converted from irrigated croplands and other vegetated areas. We noticed that the increase in urban areas has led to an advancement in fog dissipation by about 1–2 h. The early dissipation also results in modifying the Liquid Water Path (LWP), consequently forming fog holes. Moreover, this phenomenon is likely to escalate if urban areas continue to develop in the future. We further attribute the near-surface soil moisture as a primary factor influencing the early lifting and dissipation of the fog layer by affecting surface fluxes (quantified by Bowen Ratio (BR)) and Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE), and expediting the heating (0.5°C–2°C) and drying (5%–20%) of the near-surface boundary layer (&lt;500m from the land surface).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 121014"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143154280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insights into aerosol vertical distribution, subtype, and secondary particle formation in central Himalayas: A COVID-19 lockdown perspective","authors":"Vikas Rawat ,&nbsp;Narendra Singh ,&nbsp;Surendra K. Dhaka ,&nbsp;Prabir K. Patra ,&nbsp;Yutaka Matsumi ,&nbsp;Tomoki Nakayama ,&nbsp;Sachiko Hayashida ,&nbsp;Mizuo Kajino ,&nbsp;Sanjeev Kimothi","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pristine Himalayan environment is being increasingly affected by the exogenous pollutants which are often observed over mountains. This study, for the first time, elucidates upon the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the concentrations of primary and secondary aerosols along with associated dynamics, across the boundaries of two regions with very different geographical features. PM_2.5 measurements from northern Indian atmosphere during three distinct phases (P-I, P-II, P-III) of 2020, were investigated against previous three year's mean (2017–2019) over Delhi/NCR (DN) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and Nainital (NT) in the Central Himalaya (CH) using integrated ground based, spaceborne and reanalysis datasets. Strict lockdown measures led to a substantial reduction in PM_2.5 levels in north India, with ∼62% decrease in DN and a minor ∼8% in NT region, for a couple of weeks, along with decrease in other primary absorbing aerosols (BC, OC and dust), conversely, an enhancement was observed in the scattering aerosol (SO₄²⁻). Vertical profiles of Extinction Coefficient from CALIPSO satellite revealed substantial reductions (∼60%) in aerosol content across 0–6 km, over study region with a larger decline in the foothills. Particulate depolarization ratio (PDR) and Particulate color ratio (PCR) declined with altitude by 44% and 31% respectively due to prevalence of fine particles over CH and irregular shapes near the surface (DN). In P-II, aerosol subtype occurrences changed significantly above boundary layer (2–4 km) and reduction in primary aerosols did not contribute to reducing PM_2.5 concentrations. P-III exhibited enhanced secondary particle formation exacerbated by Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) events of O₃ that increased the oxidizing capacity in atmosphere. Overall, an upsurge in SO₄²⁻ and HNO₃, was observed in CH and DN region respectively. These findings highlight the significance of secondary aerosols in reduced primary emissions and need of comprehensive case study employing box and regional chemistry models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 121015"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143154284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced PM2.5 prediction with a dynamic wind-driven graph fusion model incorporating inter-station pollutant transport","authors":"Haonan Gu ,&nbsp;Yinqiao Zhang ,&nbsp;Xuyuan Shi ,&nbsp;Chunlei Wei ,&nbsp;Xiaoyong Cao ,&nbsp;Yi He","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of PM_2.5 levels is critical for safeguarding public health and informing environmental policies. However, forecasting remains challenging due to the complex transport of pollutants between monitoring stations and the dynamic nature of atmospheric conditions. This study introduces a new PM_2.5 prediction model utilizing a dynamic wind-driven graph fusion approach that explicitly incorporates inter-station pollutant transport. By dynamically adjusting graph edge weights based on evolving wind patterns, the model captures the spatiotemporal dependencies between meteorological conditions and pollutant dispersion across multiple monitoring stations, which in turn enhances its interpretability by providing insights into the underlying relationships between environmental factors and air quality dynamics. An ablation study underscores the effectiveness of each component, particularly highlighting the impact of inter-station transport considerations on prediction accuracy. The model demonstrates superior performance, with over 70% of station-specific predictions achieving lower RMSE compared to leading models. Additionally, transfer learning techniques are employed to extend the model's scalability and efficiency, reducing the required training data by 80% and cutting training time by a factor of 50. This approach not only enhances the accuracy and interpretability of PM_2.5 forecasts but also provides valuable insights into pollutant transport dynamics, offering a useful tool for air quality management and policy decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 121012"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contribution assessment of meteorology vs. emissions in the summer ozone trend from 2014 to 2023 in China by an environmental meteorology index","authors":"Shuhua Lu ,&nbsp;Sunling Gong ,&nbsp;Jianmin Chen ,&nbsp;Lei Zhang ,&nbsp;Huabing Ke ,&nbsp;Weijun Pan ,&nbsp;Jianyan Lu ,&nbsp;Yan You","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A new environmental meteorology index for O₃ pollution (EMI/O₃) has been developed to quantify the contribution of meteorological variations to the surface O₃ trends, based on WRF-Chem simulation result analysis. Under fixed base emissions for the year of 2016 and varying meteorology from 2014 to 2023, four major factors influencing the surface O₃ trend in a region, i.e. chemical formation, vertical mixing, horizontal advection and dry depositions were extracted from the simulation results and used to formulate the EMI/O₃ index as a function of meteorology. Five representative cities in China were selected to test the usefulness of the index and evaluate its accuracy. EMI/O₃ effectively explained changes in O₃ observations for the model base year of 2016, demonstrating its suitability for quantifying meteorological impacts on O₃ levels. Additionally, EMI/O₃ was used to investigate the impact of heatwave events on O₃ concentrations. This study also isolated and validated the contributions of O₃ precursor emission variations to the trend using multiple datasets. Finally, the contributions of meteorology and emissions to O₃ levels during the COVID-19 lockdown were quantified using EMI/O₃.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 120992"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toxicological analysis and organ damages of rats injected with soluble ambient particulate matter from 31 cities in China","authors":"Qisong Xing ,&nbsp;Lu Zhang ,&nbsp;Huaying Liu ,&nbsp;Chenyu Zhu ,&nbsp;Maosheng Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efforts to reduce particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations often overlook the variability in PM components and associated health effects across cities. Here, we conducted PM toxicity experiments by injecting 228 Wistar rats with water-soluble PM suspensions (filtered through 0.45 μm membrane) (PMSF) of equal mass (6 mg/kg body weight), collected from automobile air filter in 31 major Chinese cities. Results revealed that PMs from thirty-one sources resulted in statistically significant differences in organ damages (heart, lung and liver), protein biomarkers and four microRNA expressions (miR-21, miR-125b, miR-146a, and miR-155). Nonetheless, these same measurements exhibited a statistical similarity for neighboring cities. Dimensionality reduction and machine learning algorithm revealed a strong link between specific metal components in PMSF and PM-related health risks. For example, reducing 6.20% of metal elements in PMSF was estimated to result in a 23.74% reduction in health risk. Additionally, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) levels per unit PM mass was also observed to vary substantially across the 31 cities, thus further explaining the health disparity. Until this work, most studies involve limited number of city PM sources, thus developing a biased understanding of PM toxicity and health impacts for a country or the world. The results here provide a state-of-the-art mechanistic understanding of the health effects of PMs of diverse city sources, while formulating the theoretical basis and reference for city- and component-specific PM control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 121005"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Composition of photochemical consumed volatile organic compounds and their impact on ozone formation regime: A case study in Zibo, China","authors":"Binqian Fan ,&nbsp;Wenting Wang ,&nbsp;Chunmei Geng ,&nbsp;Bo Xu ,&nbsp;Zhenze Song ,&nbsp;Yingying Liu ,&nbsp;Wen Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transport of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the measurement site leads to significant photochemical consumption, directly impacting ozone (O₃) formation. To address this issue, a comprehensive observation campaign was conducted from May 1 to September 30, 2021, in Zibo, China. Using the Framework for 0-D Atmospheric Modeling (F0AM), the impact of photochemical consumed VOCs (C-VOCs) on O₃ sensitivity was evaluated based on initial VOCs (In-VOCs). The results indicate that the average concentration of C-VOCs was 5.8 ± 8.3 ppbv, accounting for 9.5% of the In-VOCs concentration during high-O₃ periods, which was higher than that during low-O₃ periods. Alkenes (including isoprene) contributed 84.6% to the C-VOCs and accounted for 91.0% of the C-OFP (ozone formation potential (OFP) of C-VOCs), followed by aromatics. Isoprene, 1,3-butadiene, m/p-xylene, 1-butene, and propylene were identified as key species contributing to C-OFP. Three methods assessed the impact of including or excluding C-VOCs on O₃ formation. Based on the VOCs/NO_<em>x</em> indicator, the proportion of the NOₓ-limited regime was underestimated by 14%∼21% for the high-O₃ periods and 18%∼21% for the low-O₃ periods without considering C-VOCs. Compared to the results of the measured VOCs (M-VOCs), the relative incremental reactivity (RIR) value of NO_<em>x</em> increased significantly for both high and low-O₃ periods when considering C-VOCs, while the RIR value of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (AVOC) showed a reverse trend. The RIR(NO_<em>x</em>)/RIR(AVOC) results indicated that the O₃ formation regime shifted from VOC-limited or transitional to NO_<em>x</em>-limited, which is consistent with the result from the empirical kinetic modeling approach (EKMA). Emission reduction modeling suggested reducing AVOC and NO_<em>x</em> at a 1:3 ratio as an effective O₃ mitigation strategy. This work reveals that the NO_<em>x</em> limitation in controlling O₃ generation in this region will be underestimated without considering C-VOCs, emphasizing the importance of C-VOCs in the formulation of O₃ reduction strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 120984"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling and assessment of ozone pollution based on Fault Tree combined with Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach","authors":"Weiqing Huang ,&nbsp;Jialiang Liu ,&nbsp;Jingxian Wei ,&nbsp;Yu Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.121003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With a series of strict air pollution control measures in China, fine particulate matter has been effectively controlled. However, O₃ has replaced PM_2.5 as the primary pollutant affecting air quality in many Chinese cities. For the prevention and control of ozone pollution, an integrated risk assessment framework is proposed. From the perspective of anthropogenic emission sources of O₃ precursors (NO_X and VOC_S), the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method is explored to carry out the causation analysis and the Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach (EKMA) is used for sensitivity analysis. A causation FTA model is established for excessive emission of O₃ precursors, the key risk factors are identified, and a quantitative probability calculation strategy is proposed for the risk factors. The case study results showed that the probability of the excess ozone precursor emissions in Dongguan was 0.7193, and Excess vehicles (X₁) was the primary factor of the top event. The other 12 basic risk factors related to industrial sources such as solvent paint use and industrial furnaces also had certain impacts. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the generation of O₃ in Dongguan was limited by VOC_S in spring and winter, while it was limited by NO_X-VOC_S synergy in summer and autumn. According to the causation and sensitivity analysis results, some control strategies for O₃ pollution are proposed, such as controlling the number of fossil fuel vehicles, promoting new energy vehicles, strengthening the supervision of industrial sources, and encouraging the relevant enterprises to improve the production techniques and management, etc. This work might provide significant theoretical support for the prevention and control of O₃ pollution in target cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":250,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Environment","volume":"343 ","pages":"Article 121003"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}