中华流行病学杂志最新文献

{"title":"[Study on the association between temperature and relative humidity with fall risk in Hubei Province].","authors":"M Y Shen, K Q Liang, L Zhang, S Z Zhu, W J Ma, F Luo, Y H Wang, X L Liu, Y Fu, Q Li","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00567","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To explore the associations of temperature, relative humidity, and their interaction effect with fall risk. <b>Methods:</b> Data on fall cases were collected using the national injury surveillance system from May to September, in 2006-2022 in Hubei Province. Combined with the meteorological and air pollution data, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover design and used conditional logistic regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the exposure-response relationships between temperature, humidity, and fall risk. We further divided the low and the high temperature groups and the low and the high relative humidity groups and analyzed the excess risk (<i>ER</i>) of falls attributed to dry-hot or wet-hot events. Finally, we calculated the additive interactions of temperature and humidity on fall risk. <b>Results:</b> A total of 55 401 fall cases were included. With the increase in temperature and relative humidity decrease, the exposure-response curves of fall showed nonlinear upward trends among all populations. Gender and age differences were found in temperature-fall and relative humidity-fall risk relationships. Compared with wet-non-hot (normal temperature and high relative humidity) events, the <i>ER</i> of fall in dry-hot (high temperature and low relative humidity) events was 14.80% (95%<i>CI</i>: 9.69%- 20.15%), and the <i>ER</i> of wet-hot (high temperature and high relative humidity) events was 9.59% (95%<i>CI</i>: 2.52%-17.13%). However, there was no statistically significant difference between dry-hot and wet-hot events in the fall, and no statistically significant difference between different genders, ages, occupations, and fall occurred place (all <i>P</i>>0.05). No significant synergistic additive interaction was found between temperature and relative humidity on fall risk (relative excess risk due to interaction=-0.08, 95%<i>CI</i>: -0.19-0.02). <b>Conclusions:</b> Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity were associated with increased fall risk. Both dry-hot and wet-hot events had a higher risk of fall, while high temperature and low humidity have no synergistic effect on fall risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"596-604"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144048067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Analysis of the pathogen composition and epidemiological characteristics of febrile respiratory syndrome cases in the elderly aged 60 years and above in China from 2009 to 2021].","authors":"K M Li, Y L Wu, Y Y Lian, Y Q Guo, J Y Zhang, L Cai, J D Zheng, L P Wang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241031-00675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241031-00675","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Objective:&lt;/b&gt; To understand the pathogenic composition and epidemiological characteristics of febrile respiratory syndrome (FRS) in elderly people aged 60 and above in China, and to provide a reference basis for the scientific and precise prevention and control of FRS in the elderly. &lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; Based on FRS cases surveillance data from information management system of National Technical Platform for Infectious Disease Surveillance, National Science and Technology Major Project of China, the surveillance pathogens included 8 viruses, including influenza virus (IFV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus (HAdV), parainfluenza virus (HPIV), metapneumovirus (HMPV), coronavirus (HCoV), bocavirus and rhinovirus (HRV); 7 bacterias, namely &lt;i&gt;Streptococcus pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;S.pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt;), &lt;i&gt;Staphylococcus aureus&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;S.aureus&lt;/i&gt;), &lt;i&gt;Klebsiella pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;K.pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt;), &lt;i&gt;Pseudomonas aeruginosa&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;P.aeruginosa&lt;/i&gt;), &lt;i&gt;Group A Streptococcus&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;GAS&lt;/i&gt;), &lt;i&gt;Haemophilus influenzae&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;H.influenzae&lt;/i&gt;) and &lt;i&gt;Legionella pneumophila&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;L. pneumophila&lt;/i&gt;), in addition to &lt;i&gt;Chlamydia pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;C. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt;) &lt;i&gt;and Mycoplasma pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;M. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt;). A descriptive epidemiological approach was used to analyze the pathogenic composition and major epidemiological characteristics of FRS cases aged 60 years and older nationwide from 2009 to 2021. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; The predominant viruses of FRS cases aged≥60 years accounted for 87.93% of the pathogen spectrum in China, including IFV (42.42%), HRV (16.71%), HPIV (11.53%), HCoV (9.52%), and RSV (7.75%), while the pathogen spectrum of the major bacteria accounted for 94.60%, including &lt;i&gt;S. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (25.71%), &lt;i&gt;P. aeruginosa&lt;/i&gt; (24.97%), &lt;i&gt;K. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (22.47%), &lt;i&gt;H. influenzae&lt;/i&gt; (12.23%), and &lt;i&gt;S. aureus&lt;/i&gt; (9.22%). Influenza viruses have always been at the top of the viral pathogen spectrum, and &lt;i&gt;P. aeruginosa&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;K. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;S. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt;, ranked high in the bacterial pathogen spectrum. Among them, the proportions of HRV, HPIV, RSV, &lt;i&gt;K. pneumoniae,&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;H. influenzae&lt;/i&gt; fluctuated and increased during the 13 years of observation. The positive rate of any pathogen in FRS cases was higher in out patient emergencies (32.83%) than in hospitalized cases (27.26%) (&lt;i&gt;χ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; =125.89, &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.001). The positive rate of IFV was higher in cases aged 60-74 years (13.66%). The positive rate of &lt;i&gt;P. aeruginosa&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;K. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; were higher in cases aged ≥90 years (10.71%, 9.40%) and in northern regions (8.32%, 7.30%). The positive rate of any pathogen in FRS cases was higher in winter (33.82%) than in other seasons (&lt;i&gt;χ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;=212.03, &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.001). The positive rate of IFV and HRV were higher in winter (22.87%) and autumn (5.98%) and the positive rate of &lt;i&gt;P.aeruginosa&lt;/i&gt; (8.11%) and &lt;i&gt;K.pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; (8.30%) were higher in summer. &lt;b&gt;Conclusio","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"619-629"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144050485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Expert consensus on the risk assessment and prevention on zoonotic diseases from exotic pets].","authors":"","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241106-00699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241106-00699","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>With the growth of the exotic pet market, the risk of zoonotic diseases stemming from these non-traditional pets has increasingly garnered attention, posing a potential threat to public health safety. To scientifically assess and effectively address these risks, this consensus document consolidated the expertise and experiences of professionals from relevant fields both nationally and internationally. Through a systematic evaluation of the types and current epidemiological trends of zoonotic diseases associated with exotic pets, as well as an analysis of industry developments, we have reached key agreements on essential elements, methodological frameworks, and strategies for the prevention and control of these diseases. The consensus acknowledged the complexity and volatility of the exotic pet trade supply chain, which contributes to public health risks. It advocated for the enhancement of monitoring and prevention systems to improve risk surveillance and early warning capabilities; the establishment of cohesive cross-sectoral regulations to bolster biosafety; the development of industry standards to encourage standardized practices; the refinement of laws and regulations to elevate governance standards; the promotion of public understanding and awareness regarding disease prevention; and the strengthening of scientific research and international cooperation. This consensus served as a scientific reference for governments in formulating relevant policies and fortifying regulatory frameworks, as well as for the industry and the public to effectively respond to the risks posed by diseases originating from exotic pets. Ultimately, it provided a scientific foundation for establishing a systematic and long-term prevention and control approach to zoonotic diseases associated with exotic pets in China, with the aim of reducing the frequency and transmission of infections spread by these animals.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"541-548"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144051173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Epidemiological research progress on the association between meteorological factors and suicide].","authors":"X L Gu, W J Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240910-00564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240910-00564","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Much evidence shows that meteorological factors are closely related to human health. By combining relevant domestic and foreign literature, this review found that there were currently many studies on the association between meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, and relative humidity and suicide. Some studies have found that they are related to suicide, while others have not found such an association. There are relatively fewer studies on the association between other meteorological factors and suicide. The mechanisms for the association between air temperature and suicide include physiological and biochemical mechanisms, behavior and lifestyle mechanisms, brown adipose tissue theory, and psychological mechanisms. There is a lack of research on the mechanisms for the association between other meteorological factors and suicide. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the association between meteorological factors and suicide to clarify their causal relationship and mechanisms to provide a scientific basis for reducing suicides related to climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"730-736"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143988417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[A decomposition analysis of the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among individuals aged 60 and above, 1990-2019: a global perspective].","authors":"W X Wang, Alemiti Maimaiti, L Wang, Zainaudong Yushan, H Jiang, F S Gao","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241122-00745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241122-00745","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objectives:</b> To calculate the age-standardized incidence rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, and mortality rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among individuals aged ≥60 years globally from 1990 to 2019, and analyze their trends. To assess the impact of population growth, changes in age structure, and epidemiological changes on global changes in COPD incidence, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years. <b>Methods:</b> The data were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% uncertainty interval (<i>UI</i>). Through decomposition analysis, the changes in the number of COPD cases, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years globally were attributed to three main factors: population growth, changes in age structure, and epidemiological changes. The contributions of these different factors were analyzed to identify the important factor driving the changes. <b>Results:</b> From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, DALY rate, and mortality rate of COPD in the global population aged ≥60 years all showed a decreasing trend, with AAPCs of -0.12% (95%<i>UI</i>: -0.13%--0.11%), -1.69% (95%<i>UI</i>: -1.80%--1.58%), and -1.77% (95%<i>UI</i>: -1.89%--1.64%), respectively. The overall contributions of population growth, changes in age structure, and epidemiological changes to the changes in the number of COPD cases, DALYs, and deaths in the global population aged ≥60 years were 5.631 million (112.55%), 14.315 million person-years (33.08%), and 799 400 (35.76%), respectively. Specifically, the contributions of population growth were 5.643 million (112.80%), 39.774 million person-years (91.92%), and 2.078 million (92.93%) for incidence, DALYs, and deaths, respectively. The contributions of changes in age structure were 3.228 million (6.45%), 2.231 million person-years (5.15%), and 265 600 (11.88%) for incidence, DALYs, and deaths, respectively. The contributions of epidemiological changes were -335 200 (-6.70%), -27.690 million person-years (-64.00%), and -1.544 million (-69.05%) for incidence, DALYs and deaths, respectively. <b>Conclusions:</b> Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence, DALY rate, and mortality of COPD in individuals aged ≥60 years showed a general downward trend while the combined factors, including contribution of population growth, age structure, and epidemiological features, showed positive impacts on the changes in the number of COPD cases, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years. The largest impact was on the number of cases. Specifically, population growth had the highest contribution ratio to the changes in COPD incidence, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years, while epidemiological changes had a negative contribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"676-687"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144018921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study on the effect and burden of precipitation on road traffic injuries in Zhejiang Province].","authors":"L H Guo, W Q Zeng, W J Ma, M Zhao, J X Hu, N Li, J M Zhong, J J Lin","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00566","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the effect of precipitation on road traffic injuries (RTI) in Zhejiang Province. <b>Methods:</b> The RTI surveillance and meteorological data from 2009 to 2022 in Zhejiang Province were collected. Based on the time-stratified case-crossover design, the precipitation of case day and control day was compared, and the distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to analyze the correlation of precipitation and RTI. Stratified analyses were conducted to analyze the effect modification of gender, age, injury location, and temperature. An attributable fraction was used to assess the burden of RTI caused by precipitation. <b>Results:</b> A total of 239 970 RTIs were monitored in Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2022, averaging 46 daily cases. The distributed lag nonlinear model showed that compared with no rain, the risk of RTI increased first and then decreased with the increase of precipitation. The risk of RTI was the highest when the precipitation was 30.99 mm (<i>OR</i>=1.08, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.05-1.11). The adverse effects on RTI mainly occurred on the day of precipitation, and it showed insignificant or protective effects with the extension of lag days. 1.34%(95%<i>CI</i>: 1.31%-1.36%) of RTI could be attributed to precipitation. Stratified analysis showed that gender, age, injury location, and temperature may modify the effect of precipitation on RTI. Precipitation caused a heavier burden on RTI in subgroups aged 18-64, females, and occurring on roads and in low temperatures. <b>Conclusions:</b> Precipitation can increase the risk of RTI. People aged 18-64 or females are the key groups for RTI prevention, and prevention and control efforts of precipitation-related RTI should be increased in road and low-temperature environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"605-611"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144027267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study on the relationship between parenting styles of toddlers aged 30 months and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptom trajectories in preschool children].","authors":"H Li, J Tong, X Wang, S Q Yan, K Huang, X Y Wu, S M Tao, B B Zhu, H Gao, F B Tao","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240826-00522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240826-00522","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Objective:&lt;/b&gt; To explore the relationship between parenting styles of toddlers aged 30 months and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptom trajectories in preschool children. &lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; The subjects were 2 111 children and their parents in Ma'anshan Birth Cohort. Parenting styles were assessed at 30 months of age using the Brief Toddler Parenting Style Questionnaire, which defines parenting styles on four dimensions: warmth and interaction, attention and acceptance, outdoor and social activities, and neglect and restrictions. The Chinese version of the Conners Abbreviated Symptom Questionnaire was used to examine preschooler's ADHD symptoms aged 3, 5, and 6 years. ADHD symptom trajectories were fitted using group-based trajectory modeling. The multinomial logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between parenting styles at 30 months of age and ADHD symptom trajectories in children. The additive and multiplicative models were applied to analyze the interaction effect of negative parenting styles in children's ADHD symptom trajectories. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; ADHD symptom trajectories in children included the low-score (48.3%), moderate-score (47.7%), and high-score groups (4.0%). After adjusting for the confounding factors, the results of the multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that negative parenting styles of the father/mother were associated with ADHD symptom trajectories in children (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.05). The father/mother's low warmth and interaction (father: &lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=2.07,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.68-2.54; mother: &lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=2.02,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.64-2.48), low attention and acceptance (father: &lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=1.94,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.57-2.39; mother:&lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=1.47,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.20-1.81), low outdoor and social (father: &lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=1.74,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.43-2.13; mother: &lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=1.60,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.32-1.94), and high neglect and restriction (father: &lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=2.09,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.67-2.62; mother:&lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=2.06,95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;:1.65-2.56) were associated with ADHD symptom moderate-score trajectories compared to the low-score trajectory group, mother's low warmth and interaction, low outdoor and social, and high neglect and restrictions. Statistically significant association was seen in negative parenting styles of fathers with the high-score group. There was a multiplicative interaction for hostile parenting (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.05). The additive interaction results showed that there was a synergistic effect of hostile parenting, which increased the risk of the high-score trajectories of ADHD symptoms in children. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; Both parents' parenting styles influenced ADHD symptom change the trajectories in preschoolers. Negative parenting styles of the father/mother increase the risk of the moderate-score and high-score trajectories of ADHD symptoms in children. Hostile parenting by both parents has a synergistic impact on the risk of ADHD symptom trajectories in children, and the simultaneous presence of both increases the","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"709-716"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143999012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study on the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality risk in seven provinces of China].","authors":"Z Y Jiang, R L Meng, R Y Zhang, X L Gu, J X Hu, M Yu, Y Chen, C L Zhou, B Huang, Z Y Liang, S J Chen, J H Li, G H He, T Liu, H Guo, W J Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00569","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To evaluate the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality. <b>Methods:</b> A total of 61 421 fall-related mortality from 2013 to 2022 in 7 provinces of China were included in a time-stratified case-crossover design, with daily meteorological data derived from the fifth generation European Reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Conditional logistic regression chimeric distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality and stratified analysis was conducted according to gender and age. <b>Results:</b> Heatwaves were associated with an increased risk of fall-related morality. The risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves was higher than during non-heatwave periods (<i>OR</i>=1.11, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.05-1.18). The attributable fraction of fall-related motality due to heatwaves was 10.25% (95%<i>CI</i>: 4.49%-15.36%). For each 1 ℃ increase above the heatwave threshold, the risk of fall-related mortality increased by 34% (<i>OR</i>=1.34, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.02-1.76). The effect of heatwave duration on fall-related mortality was not statistically significant. Stratified analyses indicated that women experienced a higher risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves (<i>OR</i>=1.13, 95%<i>CI:</i> 1.04-1.22) compared to man (<i>OR</i>=1.10, 95%<i>CI:</i> 1.04-1.17). <b>Conclusions:</b> Heatwave increases the risk of fall-related mortality, and the intensity of heatwaves modify this risk. Women are vulnerable populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"566-572"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144021425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Burden of influenza-associated consultations in China from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years].","authors":"Y X Shen, Z B Peng, Y Qin, X Y Yu, R N Su, Q Y Wang, J D Zheng, H T Zhao, X K Yang, Y P Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241216-00804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241216-00804","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To estimate the burden of influenza-associated outpatient consultations in China from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years to provide a reference for developing influenza prevention, control strategies, and vaccination policies. <b>Methods:</b> Data on influenza-like illness (ILI) and virological confirmation of sentinel specimens from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years were extracted from China's national sentinel surveillance system. Generalized additive models were fitted to estimate influenza-associated excess ILI outpatient burden, accounting for seasonal baselines and meteorological factors. <b>Results:</b> Influenza was associated with an average of 1.66 (95%<i>CI</i>: 1.51-1.80) excess ILI consultations per 1 000 person-years (py) in China each year from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years. The influenza-associated outpatient burden was similar across different virus types/subtypes. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 led to a higher rate of influenza- associated ILI consultations [0.65 (95%<i>CI</i>: 0.53-0.76) per 1 000 py] compared to other types/subtypes. The age groups with the highest burdens were children aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years, with excess outpatient consultation rates of 15.23 (95%<i>CI</i>: 13.73-16.73) per 1 000 py and 13.53 (95%<i>CI</i>: 12.49-14.52) per 1 000 py, respectively. <b>Conclusions:</b> Influenza caused many outpatient consultations in China, particularly among children aged 0-14. Continuous influenza monitoring and disease burden assessment should be conducted, and close attention should be paid to the changing trends of various influenza virus types/subtypes. When formulating vaccination strategies, priority should be given to recommending vaccination for high-risk populations, such as children.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"612-618"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144054082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Application of the back-calculation method for estimating new HIV infections in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, 2010-2023].","authors":"M Y Xiao, Y C Yang, M H Jia, H L Tang, Y H Shi, L R Fu, Z Y Zhang, R H Tang, X W Wang, F F Chen","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241104-00688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241104-00688","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> New HIV infections serve as a crucial indicator for assessing the dynamic changes in the HIV epidemic. This study aims to estimate the number of new HIV infections in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture of Yunnan Province (Dehong), using a back-calculation method that integrates diagnosis delay approaches and Bayesian theory. Additionally, it compares the differences between these two estimation methods. <b>Methods:</b> Data were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Based on CD4⁺ T lymphocytes (CD4) counts depletion model, the first CD4 count prior to antiretroviral therapy of HIV-infected individuals diagnosed in Dehong from 2010 to 2023 was utilized to retroactively determine the infection date of HIV-infected individuals and ascertain the annual number of new HIV infections who had been diagnosed. Subsequently, the diagnosis delay distribution method and Bayesian theory were leveraged to assess the diagnosis probability of newly infected individuals, thereby projecting the number of new HIV infections in the region over the specified period. <b>Results:</b> During 2010-2023, a total of 5 693 individuals aged 15 and above, excluding mother-to-child transmission, were diagnosed with HIV in Dehong. After excluding 364 cases due to missing CD4 count results or abnormal first CD4 counts (≥2 000 cells/μl), 5 329 HIV-infected individuals were included in the final analysis. Through CD4 counts back-calculation from 2010 to 2023, the annual number of new infections diagnosed was 479, 427, 337, 305, 256, 219, 194, 193, 131, 166, 120, 71, 42 and 47. When using the diagnosis delay distribution method and life table analysis, the cumulative diagnosis probability rose from 0.301 within one year to 0.913 within 14 years, leading to a reduction in the number of estimated new infections from 577 in 2010 to 168 in 2023, with a total estimate of 4 412 (95%<i>CI</i>:4 350-4 480). Alternatively, based on Bayesian theory, the diagnosis probability increased from 0.413 within one year to 0.946 within 14 years, leading to a reduction in the number of estimated new infections from 557 in 2010 to 122 in 2023, with a total of 3 814 (95%<i>CI</i>: 3 787-3 837). <b>Conclusions:</b> Both methods yielded consistent results in estimating new HIV infections in Dehong from 2010 to 2023. Given the region's ongoing expansion of HIV testing, the estimates derived from Bayesian theory may more accurately reflect the actual situation. These findings provide a reference basis for formulating and optimizing HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategies in Dehong, facilitating progress toward the goal of eliminating AIDS by 2030 in the region.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 4","pages":"669-675"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144037434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}