中华流行病学杂志最新文献

{"title":"[Trend and area specific difference analysis on influenza vaccination coverage in key populations in Shandong Province, 2015-2024].","authors":"G J Luan, S N Liu, Y Liu, L Sun, H F Sun, W Y Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250304-00129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250304-00129","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the changing trends and area specific differences in influenza vaccination coverage in key populations in Shandong Province and provide evidence for influenza prevention and control. <b>Methods:</b> The information about influenza vaccination in Shandong during 2015 to 2024 were collected from the Immunization Information System of Shandong Province, and the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated by using software Joinpoint 5.3.0. The trend of changes in vaccination coverage was analyzed and area specific differences were compared. <b>Results:</b> From 2015 to 2024, the influenza vaccination coverage in medical personnel ranged from 0.02% to 20.54% in Shandong (AAPC=63.24%, 95%<i>CI</i>: 51.37%-100.65%), showing a rapid increase from 2015 to 2020 (<i>P</i><0.001) and a stead decrease from 2020 to 2024 (<i>P</i>=0.008). The vaccination coverage in teachers and students ranged from 1.51% to 6.88% (AAPC=12.33%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -0.97%-36.27%), with a monotonic increase from 2015 to 2024 (<i>P</i>=0.070). The vaccination coverage in elderly people aged ≥60 years ranged from 0.03% to 11.68% (AAPC=102.65%, 95%<i>CI</i>: 64.16%-208.69%), with a rapid increase from 2015 to 2017 (<i>P</i><0.001), a steady increase from 2017 to 2020 (<i>P</i><0.001), and a slower increasee from 2020 to 2024 (<i>P</i>=0.046). There were area speciific differences in the temporal trend of influenza vaccination coverage. Compared with areas with low gross domestic product (GDP), the areas with high and medium GDP had significantly higher vaccination coverage and increase rates. <b>Conclusions:</b> The influenza vaccination coverage in key populations showed an upward trend in Shandong from 2015 to 2024, and the vaccination coverage in elderly people aged ≥60 years increased significantly. However, it is important to increase vaccination coverage in areas with low GDP and in teachers and students.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1586-1592"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Pathogen genome databases development and application in public health].","authors":"Z Q Lyu, Y B Yang, Y Zhang, X J Yao, X M Lu, Y L Fu, X R Wang, Q H Hu, X Zou","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241227-00830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241227-00830","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Infectious diseases continue to pose a threat to global public health. Successive global shocks caused by emerging and re-emerging pathogens have continuously challenged existing surveillance systems, highlighting the urgent need to build efficient and precise pathogen surveillance networks. Pathogen genomic databases have been developed rapidly in recent two decades, significantly improving the molecular identification, evolutionary analysis, and transmission tracking of pathogens, and changing disease surveillance strategies and patterns. This paper summarizes the developmental history and current state of pathogen genomic databases, and discusses their applications in public health, including pathogen variation surveillance, emerging or suspected pathogen identification, and epidemiological tracing. Furthermore, this paper systematically analyzes the limitations and key challenges faced by current global health prevention and control system, and suggests the focus of the development of online pathogen databases to address existing shortcomings, ultimately improve global infectious disease surveillance and early warning.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1697-1703"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study of association of sedentary time and physical activity with development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in non-smoking women aged 40 years and above in Songjiang District, Shanghai].","authors":"X Y Pang, X Yin, J Li, X Liu, Y L Wu, Q Zhao, Y G Jiang, G M Zhao, Z X Sun, N Wang, Q W Jiang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250116-00044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250116-00044","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the association of sedentary time and physical activity with the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in non-smoking women aged 40 years and above in Songjiang District, Shanghai. <b>Methods:</b> Based on a natural population-based cohort in Songjiang, a total of 18 707 non-smoking women who were aged 40 years and above and without COPD at baseline survey were enrolled in the study. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the associations of the duration of sedentary behavior, physical activity with the risk for COPD at baseline survey, and the hazard ratio (<i>HR</i>) of risk for COPD and its 95%<i>CI</i> were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed based on age, BMI, history of respiratory diseases and so on. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by excluding the cases diagnosed with COPD within one year after the baseline survey. <b>Results:</b> As of March 31, 2024, a total of 691 new COPD cases had been recorded after a median follow-up time of 6.96 years with an incidence density of 53.22 per 10 000 person-years. After adjusting for relevant confounders, in the tertile subgroups of sedentary time, the risk for COPD reduced by 17% in the short sedentary time group compared with the long sedentary time group (<i>HR</i>=0.83,95%<i>CI</i>:0.70-0.99). Compared with the low physical activity level and long sedentary time group, the risk for COPD reduced by 24% in the high physical activity level and short sedentary time group (<i>HR</i>=0.76, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.61-0.95) and by 23% in the low physical activity level and short sedentary time group (<i>HR</i>=0.77, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.60-0.97). Compared with the non-physical exercise and long sedentary time group, the risk for COPD reduced by 28% in the non-physical exercise and short sedentary time group (<i>HR</i>=0.72, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.60-0.87). These associations remained when the cases diagnosed with COPD within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. <b>Conclusions:</b> Increasing physical activity and reducing sedentary time have beneficial effects to prevent COPD in non-smoking women, and reducing sedentary time alone may also reduce the risk for COPD if increasing physical exercise or other physical activity is not possible.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1546-1553"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Epidemiological characteristics and trend of hospitalization of patients with herpes zoster in Beijing, 2017-2022].","authors":"L L Meng, D Zhao, Q H Wang, M Zhou, T Wang, Z L Zhu, Y Q Wang, Y Feng, X M Li, Z A Li, J B Pan, L D Suo, X H Pang, L Lu","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241225-00826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241225-00826","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trend of hospitalization of the patients with herpes zoster in Beijing from 2017 to 2022. <b>Methods:</b> In this retrospective study, the information of hospitalization of herpes zoster patients were collected from all medical institutions at the first level and above in Xicheng, Changping, and Miyun districts of Beijing. The age and gender specific hospitalization rates and age-standardized hospitalization rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to explore the trend of the hospitalization rates, and the influencing factors of the hospital stay length and complications were analyzed. <b>Results:</b> The age-standardized hospitalization rate of the patients with herpes zoster was 10.82/100 000-18.43/100 000 in Beijing from 2017 to 2022 [annual percent change (APC) =5.86%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -2.80%-15.98%]. The age-standardized hospitalization rate of the cases with herpes zoster as the main diagnosis showed an upward trend (APC=11.35%, 95%<i>CI</i>: 7.21%-16.23%). The age-standardized hospitalization rate showed an upward trend in women (APC=14.34%, 95%<i>CI</i>: 7.95%-22.37%). The hospitalization rate showed a downward trend in age group 30-39 years (APC=-24.92%, 95%<i>CI</i>: -48.56% - -1.85%) and showed upward trends in age group 70-79 years and 80-109 years (APC=23.18%, 95%<i>CI</i>: 13.53%-35.58%; APC=4.90%, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.18%-9.19%). Complications occurred in 66.28% (680/1 026) of the patients. The median hospital stay length was 9 (5,15) days, and the patients with high age (≥80 years) and two or more complications had longer hospital stay, which were 12 (6, 23) and 14 (7, 27) days respectively (<i>P</i><0.001). <b>Conclusions:</b> The hospitalization rate in women and the elderly aged ≥70 years with herpes zoster as the main diagnosis showed upward trends in Beijing in recent years. The elderly aged ≥80 years usually had longer hospital stay, showing a relatively disease burden level. More attention should be paid to development of intervention strategies, such as vaccine, for this population.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1540-1545"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Progress in research on the effect of AIDS prevention services on high risk behaviors for HIV infection in men who have sex with men].","authors":"R Z Liu, D M Li","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250403-00212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250403-00212","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Men who have sex with men (MSM) represent a key population in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS. Despite the remarkable advancements in AIDS prevention and treatment, the HIV infection prevalence and incidence in MSM with high risk behaviors remain higher. In recent years, the utilization of novel AIDS prevention services, such as HIV self-testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis and post-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP) in MSM gradually increased. However, the promotion of these services still faces dual challenges: insufficient support from the health system and low individual acceptance. HIV prevention services can not only provide direct biomedical protection for MSM but also reshape their behavior patterns by influencing their risk perception. These services have dual impacts on MSM's behaviors. On one hand, they might lead to an increase in high risk behaviors. On the other hand, these services improve MSM's health awareness and reduce high risk behaviors. This paper summarizes the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS and related high risk behaviors in MSM, with a focus on the utilization of HIV self-testing,PrEP/PEP, as well as their impact on high risk behaviors of MSM for the further promotion of HIV prevention services and improvement of intervention strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1704-1710"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study of association of central obesity and pain with frailty in middle-aged and old people in China].","authors":"D C Hou, B Liang, L J Pei, G Chen","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250312-00156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250312-00156","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To explore the association of central obesity, pain, their joint effect, and interaction with frailty in middle-aged and old people in China. <b>Methods:</b> A total of 14 359 participants aged ≥45 years in 2011, 2013 and 2015 were selected from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study to construct a cohort database. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and pain with the risk for frailty. Joint effect and interaction analyses were performed. <b>Results:</b> In the follow-up of 77 783 person-years, frailty developed in 3 198 participants, with an incidence density of 41.11 per 1 000 person-years. Compared with the <i>Q</i>₁ level of WHtR, its <i>Q</i>₂, <i>Q</i>₃ and <i>Q</i>₄ level increased risk for frailty by 17% (<i>HR</i>=1.17, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.05-1.31), 24% (<i>HR</i>=1.24, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.11-1.40), and 43% (<i>HR</i>=1.43, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.25-1.63), respectively. Compared with painlessness, suffering from pain increased the risk for frailty by 97% (<i>HR</i>=1.97, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.83-2.11), and having 1, 2, and ≥3 pain sites increased the risk by 42% (<i>HR</i>=1.42, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.25-1.61), 86% (<i>HR</i>=1.86, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.64-2.11), and 138% (<i>HR</i>=2.38, 95%<i>CI</i>: 2.18-2.60), respectively. The results of restricted cubic spline showed that WHtR level was associated with the risk for frailty in a J-type dose-response relationship (total <i>P</i><0.001, nonlinear <i>P</i><0.001), and pain quantity was positively associated with the risk in a nonlinear dose-response relationship (total <i>P</i><0.001, nonlinear <i>P</i><0.001). Threshold effect analysis revealed that the inflection points of WHtR and pain site number were 0.46 and 2.00, respectively (<i>P</i><0.001). Joint effect analysis showed that the <i>Q</i>₂, <i>Q</i>₃ and <i>Q</i>₄ levels of WHtR combined with pain increased the risk for frailty by 146% (<i>HR</i>=2.46, 95%<i>CI</i>: 2.11-2.87), 169% (<i>HR</i>=2.69, 95%<i>CI</i>: 2.30-3.16), and 157% (<i>HR</i>=2.57, 95%<i>CI</i>: 2.18-3.03). <b>Conclusions:</b> The risk for frailty increased with the level of WHtR and the number of pain sites in middle-aged and old people, and there was joint effect between WHtR and pain. Comprehensive management and intervention of obesity and pain are significant for the early prevention of frailty.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1531-1539"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Effect of influenza vaccination on influenza cluster epidemic in primary and secondary schools in Beijing in surveillance during 2023-2024].","authors":"Y Y Wang, Y Sun, J Li, W Duan, C N Ma, J J Zhang, J X Ma, L Zhang, X D Hu, D T Zhang, L Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250307-00142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250307-00142","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the effect of influenza vaccination on influenza cluster epidemic in primary and secondary schools in Beijing during the 2023-2024 surveillance season and provide evidence for the improvement of influenza vaccination strategies. <b>Methods:</b> The incidence data of influenza cluster epidemic and influenza vaccination coverage in the schools in Beijing during 2023-2024 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze cluster epidemic characteristics, and <i>χ</i>² test was used to compare incidence differences between groups, and <i>OR</i> value and vaccine effectiveness [VE=(1-<i>OR</i>)×100%] were calculated. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between school vaccination rates and cluster epidemic risk. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in relative risk (<i>RR</i>) with increasing vaccination coverage and to determine the optimal vaccination threshold. <b>Results:</b> A total of 126 influenza cluster epidemic were reported in 115 primary and secondary schools in Beijing during 2023-2024 with the median size of 15 case, the average attack rate was 36.26% (2 033/5 607). The epidemics mainly occurred in urban area (70, 55.56%). Primary schools were the main setting (78, 61.90%), and influenza A(H3N2) was the predominant subtype (108, 85.71%). The overall influenza vaccination coverage in the primary and secondary students was 54.26%, while the average vaccination in classes affected by the epidemics was 58.57%. The overall protection rate was 47.62%, the protection rate was higher in primary schools (49.65%) than in secondary schools (46.60%). The protection rates against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (80.93%) and influenza B (Victoria lineage) (81.65%) were significantly higher than that against influenza A(H3N2) (44.19%). When school vaccination coverage reached ≥76.00%, the epidemic risk decreased by 52.82%. <b>Conclusions:</b> Even the match between influenza vaccine strains and circulating strains is suboptimal, increasing influenza vaccination coverage in schools can effectively reduce the risk for influenza cluster epidemic. In the future, measures such as policy guidance and public health education should be taken to further improve vaccination coverage, thereby establishing herd immunity and reducing the transmission risk of influenza in schools.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1580-1585"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Analysis on new-type drugs use and related factors of high-risk behaviors in online-dating men who have sex with men in Shandong Province].","authors":"P X Huang, M Y J Yangji, H Y Yu, L Wang, Y J Li, N Zhang, G Y Wang, W Ma, M Z Liao","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250422-00271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250422-00271","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To understand the related factors of new-type drugs use and high-risk behaviors in online-dating men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shandong Province, and provide evidence for the development of targeted HIV prevention and intervention strategies. <b>Methods:</b> A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to July 2023 in eight sentinel surveillance sites across cities in Shandong, recruiting MSM participants. Each city enrolled a sample of 400 individuals. Face-to-face questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, drug use and sexual behaviors, risk perception, and online-dating practices of the MSM, and <i>χ</i>² test was used to compare the differences between online-dating MSM who used new-type drugs and those who didn't use. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the related factors of group sex behavior and the lack of HIV detection before sexual behavior in the online-dating MSM. Statistical analysis was performed by using software SPSS 29.0. <b>Results:</b> A total of 3 235 MSM were surveyed, in whom 2 787 (86.15%) used online-dating platforms to find partners in the past six months. The majority were those who were aged 25-34 years (39.18%, 1 092/2 787), unmarried/divorced/widowed (71.51%, 1 993/2 787), had an education level of college or above (69.36%, 1 933/2 787), and primarily identified as homosexual gays (77.97%, 2 173/2 787), 37.78% (1 053/2 787) believed that they were at low risk for HIV infection and 10.88% (303/2 786) believed that using new-type drugs was less harmful and 57.59% (1 605/2 787) reported new-type drugs use. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that MSM who used new-type drugs had higher risk for group sex in the past six months (a<i>OR</i>=1.31, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.06-1.63) and sexual activity without pre-HIV testing (a<i>OR</i>=1.57, 95%<i>CI</i>:1.14-2.15) compared with those who didn't use new-type drugs.MSM who believed that the risk of using new-type drugs was general, higher and very high had higher risks for group sex in the past six months (a<i>OR</i>=1.54, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.09-2.18) and sexual activity withou pre-HIV testing (a<i>OR</i>=2.02, 95%<i>CI</i>:1.34-3.05) compared with those who believed using new-type drugs was less harmful. <b>Conclusions:</b> The use of new-type drugs was relatively common in the online-dating MSM in Shandong, with widespread high-risk behaviors and poor awareness of risks to health. A gap between knowledge awareness and behavior exists. It is necessary to strengthen the health education and promotion of HIV informed dating practices in MSM.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1554-1561"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Methods and practical applications of clinical prediction model development].","authors":"Z C Ye, J H Wang, Q Lu, P Xue, Y Jiang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250415-00246","DOIUrl":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250415-00246","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Clinical prediction models are statistical tools that incorporate multiple variables to predict the likelihood of specific outcomes, by which the accuracy and efficiency of medical decision-making can be facilitated and patient health outcomes can be improved. However, many current studies face problems, such as model construction and reporting irregularities, as well as questionable reliability, which limit their clinical application of clinical prediction model. Therefore, this study systematically reviews relevant literatures, including publications from journals like <i>BMJ</i>, and outline the steps involved in constructing clinical prediction models based on practical research experience. It also provides an in-depth comparison of commonly used methods during the construction process and proposes a comprehensive guiding framework to help researchers in the field to better understand and master the core concepts and practical skills of clinical prediction models for the purpose of improving their professional capabilities in the development, validation, and application of clinical prediction models.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1640-1649"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Expert consensus on preventive strategies for human papillomavirus-associated diseases in males].","authors":"","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250526-00348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250526-00348","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most prevalent sexually transmissible pathogens worldwide. In males HPV infection may lead to various diseases, including anogenital warts, anal cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, and penile cancer, with incidence rates of these conditions increasing in recent years across the majority of global regions. This expert consensus systematically reviews the epidemiological characteristics of HPV infection and its associated morbidities in males, delineates primary and secondary preventive strategies, and establishes recommendations in the following domains: public awareness and health education, vaccination strategies, and screening approaches. The goal is to provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for reducing the burden of HPV infection and related diseases in males.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 9","pages":"1519-1530"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145087403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}