中华流行病学杂志最新文献

{"title":"[Progress in research of health economics in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment based on CiteSpace software analysis].","authors":"X H Zhang, Z Jiang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240612-00344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240612-00344","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> An overview of the progress of health economics research in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment based on CiteSpace analysis. <b>Methods:</b> With the help of visual literature analysis software CiteSpace 6.3.R1, English literature databases Web of Science, PubMed, Chinese literature databases CNKI, Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, and Vip.com were searched to review the Chinese and English literature on health economics research in the field of AIDS prevention and treatment from 2010 to 2023. According to the literature clues, the main model methods in this field are supplemented. <b>Results:</b> The number of English publications averaged 468 per year and showed a gradual decline after reaching a peak in 2018. The number of Chinese publications averaged 50 per year and continued to decline after reaching a peak in 2014. The English literature mostly came from the CDC, HIV/AIDS medical institutions, and university medical departments in Boston, Seattle, and Washington. Most Chinese literature came from the China CDC, Shandong University, Anhui Medical University, <i>etc</i>. The keywords in the English literature study were antiviral treatment, South Africa, HIV detection, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), respectively. The most frequent keywords in Chinese literature research are prostitution, mother-to-child transmission, entertainment places, and health education. Measurement methods on AIDS prevention and control service cost mainly include a top-down method, bottom-up method, activity-based costing method, <i>etc</i>; theoretical models are mainly HIV dynamic transmission model, Markov model optimization, and individual-based HIV comprehensive transmission model. Commonly used software tools are Spectrum, Optima HIV, MicroCOSM, EMOD-HIV, <i>etc</i>. <b>Conclusions:</b> In the field of HIV/AIDS prevention and control from 2010 to 2023, the number of English health economics research papers remained at a high level, while the number of Chinese health economics related papers declined significantly. Overseas studies have basically covered the health economics evaluation of a series of whole-chain intervention modes, such as HIV screening, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), antiviral therapy (ART) and bridging care for key populations. The domestic field needs to combine technological integration and innovation in the field of prevention and control, strengthen the health economics evaluation of innovative service models such as \"Internet +\" intervention, HIV self-test, PrEP, and rapid ART for key populations, deepen cross-unit and interdisciplinary cooperation, and expand methodological research.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"325-333"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[The expression of YTHDF2 in cervical lesions and its relationship with prognosis based on bioinformatics].","authors":"Y S Peng, N Tian, X L Feng, R Zhang, Z X Ran, J T Wang, W H Zhao, Z Q Tian, L Ding","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240819-00509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240819-00509","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Objective:&lt;/b&gt; To investigate the role of YTHDF2 in cervical lesions and its potential molecular mechanism. &lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; Gene expression data of cervical tissue were obtained from the GEO database to analyze the expression of &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; mRNA and perform pathway enrichment analysis. Patients with cervical lesions diagnosed by thinprep cytologic test in Gynecological Outpatient Department of Maternal and Child Health Hospital in Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, were selected as the research subjects. Data of cervical lesions and cervical exfoliated cells were collected. HPV infection status was detected by flow-through hybridization, and the expression of &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; mRNA was detected by reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction. The expression of &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; in cervical lesions and the mediating role of HPV infection in the relationship between &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; and squamous intraepithelial lesion (SIL) were evaluated. &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt;-related genes were screened from multiple datasets in the GEO and ENCORI databases, and their expression, immune infiltration, and survival analysis were performed to assess the association between &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; and prognosis. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Compared with normal cervical tissue, &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; was highly expressed in cervical lesion tissue (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.05). A total of 3 672 differentially expressed genes were screened from the dataset GSE49339. Gene Ontology analysis showed that &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; was mainly involved in transcription regulation. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis showed that &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; might be related to HPV infection and other signaling pathways. In the mediation analysis, &lt;i&gt;χ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; test results showed that the expression level of &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; was significantly different among groups (&lt;i&gt;χ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;=22.47, &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.001). Trend &lt;i&gt;χ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; test further showed that the expression level of &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; was upregulated with the degree of cervical precancerous lesions (trend &lt;i&gt;χ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;=10.26, &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that high &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; expression increased the risk of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (&lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=3.15, 95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;: 1.93-5.15) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (&lt;i&gt;OR&lt;/i&gt;=1.85, 95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;: 1.01-3.39). Mediation effect analysis revealed a partial mediating effect of HPV infection between &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; and SIL, accounting for 32.02% of the total effect. Twelve &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; related genes were screened by the intersection of multiple datasets. The immune infiltration analysis results showed that &lt;i&gt;YTHDF2&lt;/i&gt; and related genes &lt;i&gt;KLF4&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;E2F3&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;HOXC6&lt;/i&gt; were associated with immune infiltration (all &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&lt;0.05). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that low expression of &lt;i&gt;KLF4&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;HR&lt;/i&gt;=0.53, 95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;: 0.30-0.94) and high expression of &lt;i&gt;RHOB&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;HR&lt;/i&gt;=1.80, 95%&lt;i&gt;CI&lt;/i&gt;: 1.04-3.13)","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"280-287"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Association between lung nodules and lung cancer risk in high-risk populations].","authors":"C Y Jin, C Zhu, C Ji, Q Li, Y T Fu, L L Wu, L Shi, L B Du, M Zhu, H B Shen, H X Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240627-00381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240627-00381","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To investigate the association between different types of lung nodules and the risk of lung cancer in a population at high risk of lung cancer and to provide an epidemiologic basis for the comprehensive management of lung nodules. <b>Methods:</b> Using the free lung cancer screening program of low-dose CT (LDCT) in Wenling, Zhejiang Province, we collected baseline and imaging information of high-risk groups for lung cancer who underwent LDCT screening from April 2019 to October 2021 and patients with previous history of lung cancer, tuberculosis, pneumoconiosis, and silicosis were excluded. A total of 28 539 study subjects were included in the analysis, and the follow-up ended on 31 December 2023. Based on the characteristics of the detected pulmonary nodules, the study subjects were classified with no nodules, with solid nodules, with pure ground glass nodules, and with part solid nodules groups. The association between different characteristics of lung nodules and the risk of lung cancer development was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model with a new diagnosis of lung cancer during the follow-up period as the outcome. <b>Results:</b> The overall detection rate of lung nodules with a mean diameter of ≥3 mm was 76.5%, of which 53.7%, 18.2%, and 4.6% were detected in the solid nodule, pure ground glass nodule, and partially solid nodule groups, respectively. There were statistically significant differences between the different nodule groups in terms of age, gender, BMI, history of toxic exposure education level, smoking status, history of lung disease, and family history of lung cancer (all <i>P</i><0.05). The median follow-up time of the study population was 3.4 years, and 485 new lung cancer cases were diagnosed during the follow-up period. After adjusting for covariates, the results of multifactorial Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that the risk of lung cancer was higher in pure ground glass nodules and part solid nodules compared with solid nodules, with <i>HR</i> values (95%<i>CI</i>) of 1.89 (1.52-2.35) and 6.49 (5.18-8.14), respectively. The results of subgroup analysis showed that patients in the group of part solid nodules had the highest risk of lung cancer in all strata of the population, followed by patients with pure ground glass nodules. Patients in the solid nodule group who were older or had previous lung disease had a higher risk of lung cancer, and the risk of lung cancer in the part solid nodule group differed between genders. <b>Conclusions:</b> The proportion of lung nodules detected is high in the high-risk group of lung cancer, and among them, patients with pure ground glass and part solid nodules have a higher risk of developing lung cancer. Attention should be paid to the annual follow-up management for patients with solid nodules who are older or who have had lung diseases, as well as for female patients with part solid nodules.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"273-279"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study on the correlation between urinary calcium levels and severity and prognosis of chronic kidney disease].","authors":"Q J Yuan, Y Y Xie, J W Wang, Z Z Peng, P Yu, T Meng, L Huang, W Wang, X Z Li, H W Huang, F Wang, B X Gao, M H Zhao, Q L Zhou, L X Zhang, H Xu","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240708-00407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240708-00407","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the relationship between 24-hour urinary calcium (24 h UCa) level and the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality. <b>Methods:</b> In the Chinese Cohort Study of Chronic Kidney Disease, we examined 3 375 patients aged 18-74 years with CKD stages 1-4. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to test a time-to-event association between levels of 24 h UCa and incidence of ESKD, CVD, and all-cause mortality. <b>Results:</b> During a follow-up of 4.17 (3.37, 5.20) years, 179, 145, 104 and 38 ESKD events occurred in <0.60, 0.60-, 1.20-, ≥2.32 mmol 24 h UCa groups. Higher levels of 24 h UCa (1.20-,≥2.32 mmol) were independently associated with a lower incidence of ESKD events in patients with CKD, with <i>HR</i> (95%<i>CI</i>) of 0.71 (0.54-0.93) and 0.43 (0.29-0.64), respectively. No significant associations with CVD and all-cause mortality endpoints were detected. <b>Conclusion:</b> Among patients with CKD, levels of 24 h UCa displayed an association with the risk of ESKD among patients with CKD stages 1-4.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"264-272"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Comparative characteristics of HIV/AIDS knowledge belief and behavior among self-reported sexually active female college students in Zhejiang Province in 2018 and 2020].","authors":"W Y Chen, L J Chen, X Zhou, W J Chen, T T Jiang, H Wang, Q Q Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240711-00414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240711-00414","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze differences on characteristics of HIV/AIDS knowledge, beliefs and behavior among female college students who reported having sex in Zhejiang Province between 2018 and 2020, and provide reference for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among female college students. <b>Methods:</b> Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in October-November 2018 and November-December 2020 among female college students in 13 universities in 11 cities in Zhejiang Province, and female college students who self-reported having sexual intercourse in the past year were included as study subjects, with sample size estimates of 5 265 and 9 466 for the two surveys, respectively. The factors related to the change of relevant characteristics of the two survey subjects were analyzed. The <i>χ</i>² test was used for univariate analysis and logistic regression model was used for multivariate analysis.Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS 23.0 software. <b>Results:</b> Of the 17 354 and 20 675 female college students surveyed in 2018 and 2020, respectively, the proportion who self-reported having had sex in the past year was 6.56% (1 139/17 354) and 4.19% (866/20 675). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with female college students in 2018, the students who have sexual behaviour, receiving health education class by their university in the past year (a<i>OR</i>=1.57, 95%<i>CI</i>:1.29-1.91), receiving HIV testing promotion by the university in the past year (a<i>OR</i>=2.59,95%<i>CI</i>:2.13-3.14), receiving self-assessment of HIV risk by the university in the past year (a<i>OR</i>=2.97,95%<i>CI</i>:2.43-3.65), high self-efficacyfor condom use (a<i>OR</i>=2.00, 95%<i>CI</i>:1.66-2.41), receiving voluntary counseling and HIV testing (VCT) (a<i>OR</i>=1.81,95%<i>CI</i>: 1.41-2.87), perceived risk of HIV infection (a<i>OR</i>=2.44, 95%<i>CI</i>:1.32-4.54), using condoms whenever having casual sexual behaviour in the past year (a<i>OR</i>=3.35,95%<i>CI</i>:1.66-6.77) were significantly higher in 2020. <b>Conclusions:</b> Compared with female college students in 2018, the proportion of female college students who self-reported sexual activity decreased slightly in 2020, and the proportion of receiving HIV/AIDS lectures or health education classes, the proportion of self-rated at risk of HIV infection, the proportion of receiving VCT, the proportion of using condoms with very high confidence in self-efficacy and condom use had an increased.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"232-238"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Research progress on the epidemiological characteristics and prevention and control of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome].","authors":"S Qi, Y Qin, J Xing, Q L Chen, J D Li, Y P Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240719-00438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240719-00438","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne infectious disease with a high mortality rate. Many countries worldwide have already reported local transmission, and the number of reported cases has been increasing yearly, with an ever-expanding region. No specific treatment drugs or vaccines have seriously threatened public health safety in epidemic regions. This article reviews the epidemiological characteristics, transmission routes, and control measures of SFTS.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"352-358"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Clinical research design and application of vaccines based on maternal immunization].","authors":"Y Liu, S Y Jia, X M Ma, F Wen, F C Zhu, J X Li","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240712-00419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240712-00419","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Maternal immunization is a highly effective public health strategy. The administration of vaccines to pregnant women increases the level of specific transplacental maternal antibodies, thereby protecting the pregnant fetuses, newborns, and early-life infants from the corresponding pathogens. Currently, maternal immunization strategies for pertussis, influenza, <i>etc</i>. have been widely used worldwide, and positive results have been achieved in preventing respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants. This article reviews different designs of maternal vaccination clinical studies, including randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, and surveillance data studies. It summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of different study approaches and discusses the application of maternal immunization strategies to provide a reference for developing maternal immunization research in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"345-351"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[A simulation study for handling two-way treatment switching in rare event scenarios].","authors":"W K Wu, Q He, M H Yao, J Y Xu, W Wang, X Sun","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240522-00295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240522-00295","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> Drug safety assessments based on real-world data are often challenged by both treatment switching and rare events. In this study, we used statistical simulations to investigate the effects of switching rates and treatment effects on the statistical performance of commonly used analytical strategies and methods under overlapping scenarios of treatment switching and rare events. <b>Methods:</b> The simulation scenario was set up as a bidirectional treatment switching (allowing the control group to switch to the treatment group and the treatment group to switch to the control group), and the event rates were set at approximately 2%, 5%, and 20%. Different simulation scenarios were generated with sufficient sample size to consider switching rate and relative treatment effect. The simulated datasets were analyzed using three types of analysis strategy, i.e. intention to treat (ITT), per protocol (PP), and as treated (AT). The performance of five indicators, namely percentage bias, mean square error, empirical standard error, coverage, and rejection rate, were compared among the different methods in different scenarios, and recommendations for method selection were given. <b>Results:</b> In terms of analytical strategies and methods, AT analysis were relatively optimal in terms of percentage bias and accuracy, followed by PP analysis and ITT analysis. When the relative treatment effects converged (e.g. <i>HR</i>=1.0), both the ITT analysis and the time-dependent AT approaches (marginal structural model, time-dependent Cox regression model or time-dependent propensity score matching) performed well; when the relative treatment effects were small (e.g. <i>HR</i>=0.8), the marginal structural model was the most optimal; when the relative treatment effects were large (e.g. <i>HR</i>=0.6 or 0.4), the approaches of using a censored treatment for switchers in the AT analysis were more accurate. In addition, the time-dependent AT approaches had the highest rejection rate when there was a difference in treatment effect between the two groups, and the ITT analysis had the lowest rejection rate. <b>Conclusions:</b> For the dual challenges of bidirectional switching and rare events in real-world drug safety evaluations, adequate sample size is a prerequisite for accurate estimation of treatment effects, while switching rates and effect sizes of switched drugs might also affect estimation accuracy. Appropriate strategies and methods should be selected for the analysis. It is necessary to consider whether the event is rare or not, the switching rate and the expected treatment effect size of the two types of treatment to select appropriate analysis strategies and methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"334-344"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Research on the prediction of Hepatitis C incidence trend in Taiyuan City based on combination model].","authors":"S Y Guo, Q Y Zhao, Y Zhang, P Zhang, X W Che, J G Zheng, L Wang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240814-00502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240814-00502","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data. <b>Methods:</b> The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error (<i>MAE</i>), mean squared error (<i>MSE</i>), root mean square error (<i>RMSE</i>), and mean absolute percentage error (<i>MAPE</i>). <b>Results:</b> A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on <i>MSE</i>, <i>MAE,</i> and <i>RMSE</i> indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on <i>MAPE</i> indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. <b>Conclusions:</b> The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"204-209"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Prediction of depression symptoms in seniors and analysis of influencing factors based on explainable machine learning].","authors":"W Y Su, S H Dong, H J Ge, Q Yu, G F Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240809-00488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240809-00488","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> This study aims to construct a machine learning model to predict depression symptoms in the elderly and analyze the key influencing factors of depression in the elderly using the shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) method. <b>Methods:</b> Based on entries from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study database, a sample of 5 954 elderly individuals was selected. Feature selection using Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) - Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and the Lasso algorithm, which was combined with five classifiers-logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, support vector machines, and XGBoost-to explore the classification effectiveness for depressive symptoms in the elderly. Finally, the SHAP method was used to interpret the analysis of the model with the highest receiver operating characteristic curve areas under the curve (AUC). <b>Results:</b> The accuracy of 15 prediction models ranged from 0.702 to 0.743, with AUC between 0.730 and 0.795. Sensitivity was reported at 0.546 to 0.588, while specificity ranges from 0.783 to 0.865. The model XGBoost-RFE-XGBoost presented the highest AUC. Based on SHAP values, the top four factors influencing depressive symptoms in older adults were life satisfaction, duration of nighttime sleep, disability status, and self-rated health. <b>Conclusion:</b> This study developed a highly efficient and interpretable risk prediction model for depressive symptoms in older adults, which could help identify high-risk older adults and give personalized interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"316-324"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}