S. Claessens, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Deniz Igan, L. Laeven
{"title":"Cross-Country Experiences and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis","authors":"S. Claessens, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Deniz Igan, L. Laeven","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00244.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00244.x","url":null,"abstract":"\"The financial crisis of 2007--2008 is rooted in a number of factors, some common to previous financial crises, others new. Analysis of post-crisis macroeconomic and financial sector performance for 58 advanced countries and emerging markets shows a differential impact of old and new factors. Factors common to other crises, like asset price bubbles and current account deficits, help to explain cross-country differences in the severity of real economic impacts. New factors, such as increased financial integration and dependence on wholesale funding, help to account for the amplification and global spread of the financial crisis. Our findings point to vulnerabilities to be monitored and areas of needed national and international reforms to reduce risk of future crises and cross-border spillovers. They also reinforce a (sad) state of knowledge: much of how crises start and spread remains unknown.\" Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2010.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121167434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Drugs Policy: What Should We Do About Cannabis?","authors":"S. Pudney","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00236.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00236.x","url":null,"abstract":"Public policy has failed to prevent large-scale consumption of cannabis in most developed countries. So what, if anything, should we do to change the policy environment? Cannabis consumption is unambiguously harmful in several ways, but this does not automatically justify the prohibitionist policy dictated by the international drugs conventions. This paper sets out the arguments for policy intervention in the cannabis market and reviews the directions of policy change that have been called for. We argue that existing theoretical insights and empirical evidence give little compelling reason to prefer prohibition to the alternative of legalization of cannabis with harms controlled by regulation and taxation. Given this conclusion and the much wider prevalence of cannabis than of harder drugs, a reasonable way forward is to remove cannabis production and consumption (but not trade) from the current prohibitionist UN drug control treaties, to allow countries to adopt their own policies, thus generating new evidence on the potential impacts of a wider range of policy.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"94 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114040710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy in Exceptional Times","authors":"M. Lenza, H. Pill, L. Reichlin","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00240.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00240.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the way in which the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England conducted monetary policy since the beginning of the financial crisis, in August 2007. We argue that both quantitative easing - and the other non-standard measures introduced by central banks that changed the composition of the asset side of their balance sheets (so-called \"qualitative easing\") - acted mainly through their effects on interest rates and, in particular, on money market spreads, rather than solely through \"quantity effects\" in terms of the money supply. We perform a quantitative exercise on the euro area which estimates the effect of the reduction of these spreads to the broader economy.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125744134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. Cingano, M. Leonardi, Julián Messina, Giovanni Pica
{"title":"The Effects of Employment Protection Legislation and Financial Market Imperfections on Investment: Evidence from a Firm-Level Panel of EU Countries","authors":"F. Cingano, M. Leonardi, Julián Messina, Giovanni Pica","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00235.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00235.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the joint effect of EPL and financial market imperfections on investment, capital-labour substitution, labour productivity and job reallocation in a cross-country framework. In the spirit of Rajan and Zingales (1998) and Ciccone and Papaioannou (2006), we exploit variation in the need for reallocation at the sectoral and aggregate level to assess the average effect of EPL on firms’ policies. Then, exploiting firm-level information we study if the effect of EPL is stronger in firms with lower levels of internal resources. We find that, on average, EPL reduces investment per worker, capital per worker and value added per worker in high reallocation sectors relative to low reallocation sectors. The reduction in the capital-labour ratio is less pronounced in firms with higher internal resources, suggesting that financial constraints exacerbate the negative effects of EPL on capital deepening.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133452533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Miguel Almunia, Agustín S. Bénétrix, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Gisela Rua
{"title":"From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons","authors":"Miguel Almunia, Agustín S. Bénétrix, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Gisela Rua","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00242.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00242.x","url":null,"abstract":"The Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Credit Crisis of the 2000s had similar causes but elicited strikingly different policy responses. It may still be too early to assess the effectiveness of current policy responses, but it is possible to analyze monetary and fiscal policies in the 1930s as a 'natural experiment' or 'counterfactual' capable of shedding light on the impact of recent policies. We employ vector autoregressions, instrumental variables, and qualitative evidence for a panel of 27 countries in the period 1925-1939. The results suggest that monetary and fiscal stimulus was effective - that where it did not make a difference it was not tried. The results also shed light on the debate over fiscal multipliers in episodes of financial crisis. They are consistent with multipliers at the higher end of those estimated in the recent literature, consistent with the idea that the impact of fiscal stimulus will be greater when banking system are dysfunctional and monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130614007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Planning to Cheat: EU Fiscal Policy in Real Time","authors":"R. Beetsma, Massimo Giuliodori, Peter Wierts","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00230.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00230.x","url":null,"abstract":"\"Using real-time data from Europe's Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented budgetary adjustment falls systematically short of planned adjustment and this shortfall increases with the projection horizon, (2) variability in the eventual fiscal outcomes is dominated by the implementation errors, (3) there is a limited role for 'traditional' political variables, (4) stock-flow adjustments are more important when plans are more ambitious, and (5), most importantly, both the ambition in fiscal plans and their implementation benefit from stronger national fiscal institutions. We emphasize also the importance of credible plans for the eventual fiscal outcomes\". Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116668620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hugo Benı́tez-Silva, R. Disney, S. Jiménez-Mart́ın
{"title":"Disability, Capacity for Work and the Business Cycle: An International Perspective","authors":"Hugo Benı́tez-Silva, R. Disney, S. Jiménez-Mart́ın","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00247.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00247.x","url":null,"abstract":"Important policy issues arise from the high and growing number of people claiming disability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work in OECD countries. Economic conditions play an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants and inflows to and outflows from that stock. Employing a variety of cross-country and country-specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, we find strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an important explanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, lower outflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periods of above-average unemployment. In understanding the nature of the cyclical fluctuations and trends in disability it is important to distinguish between work disability and health disability. The former is likely to be influenced by economic conditions and welfare programmes while the latter evolves in a slower fashion with medical technology and demographic changes. There is little evidence of health disability being related to the business cycle, so cyclical variations are driven by work disability. The rise in unemployment due to the current global economic crisis is expected to increase the number of disability insurance claimants.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"76 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116357385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Beyond Eurosclerosis","authors":"Tito Boeri, P. Garibaldi","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00225.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00225.x","url":null,"abstract":"Europe no longer suffers from Eurosclerosis; unemployment, notably long-term unemployment, had decreased substantially for more than a decade. Mobility across labour market states increased in those countries where unemployment has been falling the most. Institutional reforms -- such as declining employment protection for new entrants in the labour market and less generous unemployment benefits -- account for this increase in mobility. Focusing on these reforms, we rationalize why EU workers, including those with permanent contracts, are increasingly unhappy about labour market conditions in spite of the disappearance of mass unemployment in Europe. Due to these perceptions, policy reversals cannot be ruled out. Governments wishing to minimize the risk of going back to Eurosclerosis should move towards flexicurity configurations, compensating workers for higher risks of job loss, and introduce tenure tracks to the labour market, preventing the development of dual labour market structures. This would avoid dissipating the employment gains of the last decade during this recession.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131781481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries","authors":"L. Chauvet, P. Collier","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00228.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00228.x","url":null,"abstract":"\"This paper explores the impact of elections on economic policies and governance in developing countries. We distinguish between a structural effect, which increases accountability, and a cyclical effect which may be disruptive. Since the effects are offsetting, neither can be analysed in isolation. We implement an econometric analysis on more than 80 developing countries using positive changes in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment of the World Bank and the International Country Risk Guide as signalling improvements in economic policy and governance. We find that both structural and cyclical effects matter. The cyclical effect suggests that mid-term is the best moment for policy change. We investigate the structural effect by comparing different frequencies of elections. Except at the extremes, a higher frequency of elections improves both policy and governance net of any cyclical effect. The important exception to this benign net effect is if the electoral process is badly conducted. Badly conducted elections have no structural efficacy for policy improvement. A reasonable interpretation of our results is that honest elections increase accountability and thereby discipline governments to improve economic policy and governance, but that if candidates can win by fraud this chain is broken.\" Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009.","PeriodicalId":236508,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125628538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}