Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal最新文献_第2页

A Joint Affine Model of Commodity Futures and US Treasury Yields 商品期货和美国国债收益率的联合仿射模型

Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal Pub Date : 2015-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2574771

Michael Chin, Zhuoshi Liu

引用次数: 2

Modelling Oil Price Volatility Before, During and after the Global Financial Crisis 全球金融危机之前、期间和之后的油价波动模型

Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12037

Afees A. Salisu

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引用次数: 5

Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-Analysis 能源技术专家对政策的启发:研讨会、模型和元分析

Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal Pub Date : 2014-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2538626

Laura Diaz Anadon, V. Bosetti, Gabriel Chan, G. Nemet, Elena Verdolini

{"title":"Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-Analysis","authors":"Laura Diaz Anadon, V. Bosetti, Gabriel Chan, G. Nemet, Elena Verdolini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2538626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2538626","url":null,"abstract":"Characterizing the future performance of energy technologies can improve the development of energy policies that have net benefits under a broad set of future conditions. In particular, decisions about public investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) that promote technological change can benefit from (1) an explicit consideration of the uncertainty inherent in the innovation process and (2) a systematic evaluation of the tradeoffs in investment allocations across different technologies. To shed light on these questions, over the past five years several groups in the United States and Europe have conducted expert elicitations and modeled the resulting societal benefits. In this paper, we discuss the lessons learned from the design and implementation of these initiatives in four respects. First, we discuss lessons from the development of ten energy-technology expert elicitation protocols, highlighting the challenge of matching elicitation design with a particular modeling tool. Second, we report insights from the use of expert elicitations to optimize RD&D investment portfolios. These include a discussion of the rate of decreasing marginal returns to research, the optimal level of overall investments, and the sensitivity of results to policy scenarios and selected metrics for evaluation. Third, we discuss the effect of combining online elicitation tools with in-person group discussions on the usefulness of the results. Fourth, we summarize the results of a meta-analysis of elicited data across research groups to identify the association between expert characteristics and elicitation results.","PeriodicalId":233145,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","volume":"12 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130419907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Are Oil Price Forecasters Finally Right? Regressive Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price 油价预测者最终是否正确？对油价更基本价值的回归预期

Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal Pub Date : 2009-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2785362

S. Reitz, Jan‐Christoph Rülke, G. Stadtmann

引用次数: 9

The Tortoise versus the Hare: The Role of Term Structure versus Spot Price Trends in Determining Commodity Futures Returns 龟兔赛跑:期限结构与现货价格趋势在决定商品期货收益中的作用

Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal Pub Date : 2006-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2611506

H. Till

引用次数: 0

Sovereign Default and Economic Performance in Oil-Producing Economies 石油生产国的主权违约与经济表现

Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2016.20

Ana Maria Santacreu, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

引用次数: 0