{"title":"龟兔赛跑:期限结构与现货价格趋势在决定商品期货收益中的作用","authors":"H. Till","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2611506","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the role of term structure versus spot price trends in determining commodity futures returns. The paper reviews backwardation and discusses how over very long timeframes, the term structure of a commodity futures curve has been the dominant driver of returns for individual futures contracts.","PeriodicalId":233145,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2006-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Tortoise versus the Hare: The Role of Term Structure versus Spot Price Trends in Determining Commodity Futures Returns\",\"authors\":\"H. Till\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.2611506\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper examines the role of term structure versus spot price trends in determining commodity futures returns. The paper reviews backwardation and discusses how over very long timeframes, the term structure of a commodity futures curve has been the dominant driver of returns for individual futures contracts.\",\"PeriodicalId\":233145,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal\",\"volume\":\"8 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2006-09-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611506\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611506","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Tortoise versus the Hare: The Role of Term Structure versus Spot Price Trends in Determining Commodity Futures Returns
This paper examines the role of term structure versus spot price trends in determining commodity futures returns. The paper reviews backwardation and discusses how over very long timeframes, the term structure of a commodity futures curve has been the dominant driver of returns for individual futures contracts.
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