{"title":"油价预测者最终是否正确？对油价更基本价值的回归预期","authors":"S. Reitz, Jan‐Christoph Rülke, G. Stadtmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2785362","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems.","PeriodicalId":233145,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","volume":"18 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2009-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"9","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Are Oil Price Forecasters Finally Right? Regressive Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price\",\"authors\":\"S. Reitz, Jan‐Christoph Rülke, G. Stadtmann\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.2785362\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems.\",\"PeriodicalId\":233145,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal\",\"volume\":\"18 2 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2009-06-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"9\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785362\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785362","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Are Oil Price Forecasters Finally Right? Regressive Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems.
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