Nature & Society eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Climate Change, Migration and Voice: An Explanation for the Immobility Paradox","authors":"M. Beine, Ilan Noy, C. Parsons","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3467964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3467964","url":null,"abstract":"This paper sheds light on the apparent paradox, wherein populations adversely affected by climatic conditions fail to migrate as much as would otherwise be expected. Drawing on Hirschman’s treatise on Exit, Voice and Loyalty, we develop a simple model, which highlights the theoretical case for a substitution effect between voicing and emigration. We subsequently provide causal evidence of voicing representing a new mechanism through which countries adapt to climate change, implementing wage differentials and changes in visa policies at destination as instruments. More intense voicing, as captured by greater numbers of press reports, is associated with lower emigration rates. This substitution effect holds for both internal and international voicing. Our results suggest that restrictions on mobility could result in increasing voicing, both within and between countries.","PeriodicalId":225744,"journal":{"name":"Nature & Society eJournal","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134317759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points","authors":"Kees C. H. van Ginkel, M. Haasnoot, W. Botzen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3935775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935775","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change may cause socio-economic tipping points (SETPs), where the state of a socio-economic system abruptly changes to a fundamentally different state. While the potential existence of SETPs is recognized, a systematic method to identify and prepare for SETPs is lacking. This study introduces a stepwise approach for identification of SETPs in order to support decision making under uncertain climate and socio-economic conditions. We show how the conditions that trigger SETPs can be discovered using narratives and exploratory modelling, and how this can inform decision making. The approach is quantitively demonstrated with a stylized case study on the collapse of house prices in a coastal city, due to increasing flood risk in the face of accelerating sea level rise. We model the effect of various dynamic adaptive management strategies in many possible futures. We find that under high-end sea level rise scenarios, tipping points in the real estate prices are likely to occur if the market responds to sudden changes in perceived flood risk rather than gradually adjusting prices to changes in flood risk in a rational manner. Such SETPs can only be avoided with a proactive strategy and when flood protection measures are implemented rapidly. Our approach can guide future studies on SETPs while seeking to move the study of SETPs as a mere system-dynamic phenomenon towards a concept that provides perspective of action for policy makers.","PeriodicalId":225744,"journal":{"name":"Nature & Society eJournal","volume":"364 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116262865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing a Methodology for Identifying Suitable Locations of Bus Stops for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Dhaka: A Case Study of BRT Line – 3 (Airport to Fulbaria)","authors":"M. Bhuiya, Khandaker Nabid Md Morshed, M. Rahman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3521743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3521743","url":null,"abstract":"To build up an efficient transportation system, focus must be given to the improvement of mass transit. This is particularly applicable for Dhaka city which is struggling hard to meet the constantly augmenting travel demand. In such circumstances, mass transit, especially bus service can be the most important option. The improvement of the service quality of bus service can increase the ridership. One of the main reasons behind poor service of bus of Dhaka is allocating bus stops in inappropriate location through an unplanned manner without following any defined methodology. Recently, government of Bangladesh has taken decision to introduce Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) for Dhaka city for the improvement of existing bus service. A large investment by government will be worthless if BRT cannot provide desired service quality. In order to ensure better service quality for BRT, like other service quality parameters, bus stops have to be located in suitable location. Under this situation, the focus of this study is to develop a methodology for determining suitable bus stop location for BRT on the basis of the significant factors that govern selection of bus stop location. For this, BRT Line 3 (Airport to Fulbaria) has been selected as the study route. The feasibility study of this route for BRT has already been completed by DTCA. Five major factors namely travel demand, population density, accessibility for pedestrian, accessibility for rickshaw and land use have been identified as the most significant factors which govern the selection of suitable bus stop location. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been applied for prioritizing the factors. Ten experts have been interviewed to get their judgment values for the selected factors. Geometric mean method has been applied to create a consensus for group decision making. Priority Ranking reveals that travel demand is the most important factor in selecting bus stop location, which is followed by population density, land use, accessibility for pedestrian and accessibility for rickshaw. After that, a composite value has been assigned for each of the intersection on the basis of these five factors. Finally, 41 bus stops have been identified for selected route based on composite value maintaining a feasible distance between two consecutive bus stops through an iterative algorithm. Allocating bus stops in suitable locations through a comprehensive quantitative assessment would improve the efficiency of movement of BRT. The methodology that is developed in this study would be a guidance for the concerned authority to review their design and to take necessary changes regarding location of bus stops to meet the travel demand accordingly before its implementation phase and to complete the project successfully.","PeriodicalId":225744,"journal":{"name":"Nature & Society eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129491548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of State Policy on GMOs and Its Impact on the Potential of Rural Areas in Poland","authors":"K. Hryszko","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.164911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.164911","url":null,"abstract":"In the last dozen years or so the world experienced a dynamic growth in cultivations of genetically modified plants. Agricultural producers, achieving measurable economic benefits, have developed the production of genetically modified plants to an increasingly great scale. The number of supporters of the GMOs the potential to improve income owing to this technology, but also among politicians noting the chances for agriculture to contribute to providing solutions to basic problems of the world today, e.g.: ensuring food and energy safety. Genetically modified food and food produced with the use of raw materials obtained from GMO plants has become a permanent element of our diet and forms an increasing part of food consumed today. Currently, it is difficult to produce poultry and pig meat, in particular in Europe and other highly-developed countries, without feed containing genetically modified soy. The list of highly processed food products has been expanding quickly and the number of opponents of releasing genetically modified organisms into the environment has been on the raise. Social concern about unknown, long-term effects of unnatural genetic manipulations on natural environment and consumer health has been growing, though so far, despite numerous tests, no significant evidence of their negative impact on human and animal health was found. For several years, Poland has been one of the opponents of using modified plants and has been trying, by means of national legal provisions, to prevent from using this technology both in agriculture and food processing, which makes the respective provisions of acts on feedstuff and the act on seed contradictory to the EU legislation. This article provides a revision of evolution of views on GMO, current legal state in the European Union and Poland as well as proposed changes in this regard. Development of genetically modified plants production in the world was also analysed, both in terms of species cultivated and countries using them in agricultural production. Selected economic and social effects, a given state policy may have on the current and future potential of rural areas in Poland, were presented against this background. In 2011, genetically modified plants were cultivated within the area of 160 million ha, and the number of countries in which their use was permitted increased to 29. Average annual pace of increase as regards these cultivations since 1996, i.e. when commodity production with the use of modified plants was first launched, reached over 35%, i.e. ca. 10 million ha. In this period a total of 1.25 billion ha was subject to cultivation with the number of farmers involved in non-conventional production exceeding 110 million. According to estimations, global benefits of using GM plants in cultivation reached nearly USD 10.8 billion in 2009, and since 1996 they exceeded USD 64 billion in total. Under Polish conditions, from the point of view of economic aspects the problem of whether to us","PeriodicalId":225744,"journal":{"name":"Nature & Society eJournal","volume":"438 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134484342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}