ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Évaluation De Projets Publics: Risques, Coût De Financement Et Coût Du Capital (The Valuation of Public Projects: Risks, Cost of Financing and Cost of Capital Current)","authors":"M. Boyer, Éric Gravel, Sandy William Mokbel","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2325545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2325545","url":null,"abstract":"On entend souvent des affirmations a l’effet que le secteur prive est bien place pour gerer les couts d’un projet et en respecter les echeanciers, mais qu’il n’est pas, en regle generale, mieux place pour financer des projets. L’argument sous-jacent est le suivant: vu que le taux d’interet sur les emprunts gouvernementaux (le cout de financement du gouvernement) est plus faible que celui du secteur prive, le cout d’un bien ou service sera necessairement plus faible s’il est finance par un gouvernement. Il y a confusion dans ce contexte entre le cout de financement et le cout du capital (ou taux d’actualisation). Cette pratique procede d’une erreur analytique menant a une prise en compte partielle du cout des fonds publics. Cette erreur est subtile, mais importante et tres repandue tant dans les secteurs publics et prives que dans le milieu academique.L’illusion analytique vient du fait qu’une partie non negligeable du cout de financement des gouvernements est non comptabilisee, a savoir l’option implicite consentie par les citoyens contribuables a leur gouvernement d’exiger d’eux des fonds additionnels si un projet n’atteint pas le niveau de rentabilite anticipe, permettant ainsi de garantir le respect integral des engagements pris aupres des preteurs.L’actualisation a un taux essentiellement sans risque est souvent justifiee par le pouvoir pratiquement illimite de taxation de la Couronne: le projet apparait sans risque aux preteurs, mais n’est de toute evidence pas sans risque pour les citoyens contribuables.Les auteurs degagent les implications quant a l’evaluation des investissements publics et quant aux politiques publiques assimilees, telles les subventions directes aux entreprises, les endossements gouvernementaux d’emprunts d’entreprises, la comparaison du cout d’un projet selon qu’il est delivre par le secteur public ou par le secteur prive, et la detention d’un portefeuille de placements risques dedie au remboursement futur de la dette publique comme alternative au remboursement immediat de cette dette. Il va sans dire que d’autres evaluations de politiques et interventions gouvernementales pourraient etre similairement remises en cause.It is often said that the private sector is in a good position to manage project costs and meet deadlines, but not, generally, to fund or finance projects. The underlying argument runs as follows: because the interest rate on government borrowings (the government’s financing cost) is lower than what is available to the private sector, the cost of goods or services will necessarily be lower if it is funded by government. However, there is confusion between the cost of financing and the cost of capital (or discount rate) that stems from an analytical error in assessing the true cost of public funds. This is a subtle but important error that is widespread in both the public and private sectors as well as in academia. This analytical illusion is due to the fact that a significant portion of the government’s c","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126127777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs","authors":"W. Rohlfs, R. Madlener","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2326388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2326388","url":null,"abstract":"The economic evaluation of ultra-long-lived investment projects is not only challenging due to the choice of the planning horizon but also due to the discounting of future uncertain cash flows. Thus, for real world investment decisions a better understanding of the project’s risks and their effect on the project’s value is crucial. If long-term investments are modeled, stochastic processes may be used to reflect the uncertain development of future prices and cash flows. The choice of the stochastic process is consequently an essential assumption in the modeling process. This paper critically discusses the risk of ultra-long-lived investment projects implied if future pay-off’s are assumed to follow geometric Brownian motion processes. In our analysis, we distinguish between projects driven by costs and such driven by revenues. For both kind of projects we compare the value at risk with the returns of a risk-free asset. Therein, the value at risk describes the threshold value of the confidence levels of the uncertain cash flow’s probability density function. The comparison for long time horizons shows that the lower confidence interval exceeds the returns of a risk-free asset used as a benchmark for any choice of the confidence level, which implies that the returns of a “worst-case” scenario (within the assumed confidence interval) will still exceed the returns of a risk-free asset in the long-term perspective. For the case of uncertain future cost, the risk measure is defined as the difference between the expected value and the boundary of the confidence interval. This value is also found to become negative in the long-term perspective.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124872100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Use of Ex Post Cost-Benefit Analysis to Assess the Long-Term Effects of Major Infrastructure Projects","authors":"M. Florio, Silvia Vignetti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2723381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2723381","url":null,"abstract":"This paper draws and expands from a recent ex-post evaluation carried out for the European Commission aimed at assessing the long term effects produced by a sample of ten major infrastructures in the Transport and Environment sectors and interpreting the key determinants of the observed performance. This evaluation study offered a unique opportunity to draw conclusions on the value of performing ex-post evaluations and to test an innovative evaluation design combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with qualitative assessment and adopting a long-run perspective (30 years), which extends into both the past and the future, and requires a mix of retrospective and prospective analysis. This paper presents the potential of ex-post CBA to assess long term impacts of major infrastructure projects and discusses some methodological and institutional implications related to its use.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126943647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Social Cost-Benefit Analysis as Estimation Methodology: Case Study for Infrastructure Projects (ANALIZA DRUŽBENIH STROŠKOV IN KORISTI KOT METODOLOGIJA VREDNOTENJA: ŠTUDIJA PRIMERA ZA INFRASTRUKTURNE PROJEKTE)","authors":"Samanta Petohleb Černeha, Maja Klun, S. Devjak","doi":"10.17573/IPAR.2013.2.A03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17573/IPAR.2013.2.A03","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: Local public investments are financed by budget funds (state, county, local), debt funds (loans or credits, municipal obligations) and non-debt funds (users’ charges and methods and techniques of public-private partnership). In this paper some theoretical issues about cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and advantages and limitations in applying it are discussed. CBA is used in the public sector in making decisions where it is relatively easy to determine the costs, but the expected benefits can be difficult to express in monetary value. To ensure an equitable quantity of financial sources according to negative difference between inflows and outflows is one of the most important goals of the project. Based on theoretical framework about CBA, a calculation was made on social profitability of the project Public sewerage and water protection in the Region of Istria. The main conclusion of this paper is that if the project achieves the social profitability, net profit and high economic internal rate of return, it is possible to accept the realization of the project.Slovene Abstract: Gospodarske investicije so pomemben dejavnik vsakega mesta, obcine in države. V tranzicijskih državah in tudi v razvitih državah so zaradi hitre decentralizacije javnih funkcij lokalne oblasti pogosto v nezavidljivem financnem položaju. Soocene so z nezadostnim proracunom, kar povzroca pomanjkanje financnih sredstev za financiranje velikih infrastrukturnih projektov. Ker so investicije v infrastrukturne projekte kompleksne in drage, jih ni mogoce financirati iz proracuna lokalne oblasti. Glede na to, da decentralizacija vodi do zmanjsanja državnih financnih sredstev, pa iz proracuna kapitalskih investicij na lokalni ravni ni mogoce financirati. Kadar proracunska sredstva lokalnih javnih organov ne zadostujejo in se želi zmanjsati zadolženost lokalnih oblasti za financiranje kompleksnih in dragih projektov lokalne in regionalne infrastrukture, se kot partner uveljavlja zasebni sektor (Sever, 2004 ). Tehnike združevanja sredstev lokalnega sektorja in zasebnega kapitala se uporabljajo za financiranje tistih projektov, ki imajo zadovoljivo stopnjo donosa na investirana sredstva in za katere obstaja visoka stopnja tveganja na donos kapitala.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133804893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Cost of Environmental Policy Under Induced Technical Change","authors":"S. Smulders, Corrado Di Maria","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2112952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2112952","url":null,"abstract":"Conventional wisdom argues that environmental policy is less costly if environmental policy induces the development of cleaner technologies. In contrast to this argument, we show that the cost of environmental policy (a reduction in emissions) may be larger with induced technical change than without. To explain this apparent paradox, we analyze three main issues. The first key issue is whether the new technology increases or reduces the marginal cost of abatement. While most analyses in environmental economics consider it natural that marginal abatement costs fall as new technology is developed, we argue that technological change may instead increase the productivity of polluting inputs, and thus marginal abatement costs. The second issue is whether environmental policy increases or decreases total investment and innovation. Even when stricter environmental policy induces some pollution-saving technological change, it may do so at the cost of a reduced overall rate of innovation, which crowds out production and consumption, and thus makes environmental policy more costly. Finally, the presence of additional distortions drive wedges between the social and private valuation of investment and pollution that may provide incentives for induced technological change with welfare-deteriorating effects.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115211960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New Paradigm for the Assessment of High Speed Rail Projects and How to Contain Cost Overruns: Lessons from the EVA-TREN Project","authors":"T. Chevroulet, L. Giorgi, C. Reynaud","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1910565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1910565","url":null,"abstract":"The appraisal of large-scale transport projects cannot be relied upon. A review of the EU Cohesion Fund programme reveals that one project in four incurs costs that are 20% above budget. Deviations in cost, duration and environmental impact are especially problematic because such investments usually last several years, yield significant impacts and their costs reach billions of Euros. Based on recent research and a critical review of the state-of-the-art in policy and scientific literature, this contribution investigates the causes of deviation between project appraisals and real outcomes. Its main argument is that projects with poor to average technical assessments are more likely to face changes in design and/or environmental and other requirements and, therefore, delays in implementation. This, in turn, leads to significant cost overruns. What this suggests is that project maturity is a function of the robustness of the technical and scientific expertise that underlies project appraisal, and that only such project maturity is a guarantee for efficient and effective implementation. On this basis it proposes a new framework for organizing transport infrastructure assessments and for monitoring the implementation process.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132000147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Approaches to Measuring Social Discount Rate: A Bangladesh Perspective","authors":"Mohammad Muaz Jalil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1921987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1921987","url":null,"abstract":"Social discount rate (SDR) reflects a society’s relative valuation on today’s well-being versus well-being in the future. This paper reviews various methods of measuring social discount rate, with particular emphasis on Social Rate of Time Preference (SRTP) and Social Opportunity Cost of Capital (SOC) framework. The author then employs Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate SRTP value for Bangladesh followed by one using SOC framework. The final result suggests that the Government of Bangladesh should use a value between 9-11% as optimal Social Discount Rate for various long term projects. The discount rate is similar to the ones used by Government of Pakistan, India and China","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121188553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"LNG Project Valuation with Financial Leasing Contracts","authors":"Petter Osmundsen, Kjell Løvås, Magne Emhjellen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1517190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1517190","url":null,"abstract":"Financial leasing is prevalent in many projects in the oil and energy industries. Examples are tariff payments in existing pipelines, processing tariffs, leasing of rigs and leasing of LNG transportation ships. A common mistake among oil companies in such settings is to treat financial leasing costs as operating cost and discount with the firm's weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This method overstates project profitability and may lead to overinvestment since financial leasing payments should be valued at the costs of debt. We present a practical method for calculating the net present value of projects when there are no investment alternatives, i.e., when leasing is the only option (the cost of investing is not known). Finally, we demonstrate through a real LNG project example, the potential magnitude in the project net present value error.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129078199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Household Evacuation Decision Making and the Benefits of Improved Hurricane Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Assessment","authors":"J. Lazo, D. Waldman, B. Morrow, J. Thacher","doi":"10.1175/2009WAF2222310.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222310.1","url":null,"abstract":"Hurricane warnings are the primary sources of information that enable the public to assess the risk and develop responses to threats from hurricanes. These warnings have significantly reduced the number of hurricane-related fatalities in the last several decades. Further investment in the science and implementation of the warning system is a primary mission of the National Weather Service and its partners. It is important that the weather community understand the public’s preferences and values for such investments; yet, there is little empirical information on the use of forecasts in evacuation decision making, the economic value of current forecasts, or the potential use or value for improvements in hurricane forecasts. Such information is needed to evaluate whether improved forecast provision and dissemination offer more benefit to society than alternative public investments. Fundamental aspects of households’ perceptions of hurricane forecasts and warnings and their potential uses of and values for improved hurricane forecast information are examined. The study was designed in part to examine the viability of survey research methods for exploring evacuation decision making and for eliciting values for improved hurricane forecasts and warnings. First, aspects that affect households’ stated likelihood of evacuation are explored, because informing such decisions is one of the primary purposes of hurricane forecasts and warnings. Then, stated-choice valuation methods are used to analyze choices between potential forecast-improvement programs and the accuracy of existing forecasts. From this, the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved forecasts is derived from survey respondents.","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131531946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La Valoración de Proyectos de Inversión Productivos (Project Valuation)","authors":"Juan Mascareñas","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2313271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2313271","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: En esta monografia se describen los principales metodos de valoracion de proyectos: plazo de recuperacion, valor actual neto (VAN) y tasa interna de rendimiento (TIR y TIRM)English Abstract: In this monograph the main project valuation methods are shown: the pay-back, net preset value (NPV), and internal rate of return (IRR and MIRR).","PeriodicalId":220068,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125771539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}