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Preventing crimes ahead of time by predicting crime propensity in released prisoners using data mining techniques 利用数据挖掘技术预测刑释人员的犯罪倾向，提前预防犯罪
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-03-19 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019268
H. B. F. David, A. Suruliandi, S. Raja
{"title":"Preventing crimes ahead of time by predicting crime propensity in released prisoners using data mining techniques","authors":"H. B. F. David, A. Suruliandi, S. Raja","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019268","url":null,"abstract":"Criminologists and psychologists around the world are finding new initiatives to identify criminals and understand crime scenes. This work focuses on predicting the occurrence of crimes for a released prisoner, based on crime propensity prediction, using a supervised machine learning technique. This original research is intended to design and develop a new dataset of 30 attributes that exists nowhere and is exclusively created to define prisoners so as to differentiate them by their propensity to crime using psychological and behavioural factors obtained from jails and assorted sources. The research incorporates an analysis of seven search methods, in tandem with seven subset evaluation techniques, to undertake feature selection, and nine classification algorithms for the classification of prisoners. It is found that the wolf search algorithm, used with the correlation-based feature subset evaluation technique and radial basis function classifier, performs best providing 97.8% precision, 97.5% recall and low error values.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126744240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Efficiency evaluation of regional economic development of mining and metallurgy city based on DEA model 基于DEA模型的矿冶城市区域经济发展效率评价
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-03-19 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019810
Yazhou Xiong, Shiyu Zhang, Jie Lan, Fen Chen
{"title":"Efficiency evaluation of regional economic development of mining and metallurgy city based on DEA model","authors":"Yazhou Xiong, Shiyu Zhang, Jie Lan, Fen Chen","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019810","url":null,"abstract":"As the second largest city in Hubei province in the past, Huangshi city's mining and metallurgy culture has a long history. As data collection difficulty and research integrity, this study includes the Hubei province as research scope. Mining and metallurgy economy is an important content of mining and metallurgy culture. Based on the input-output data of Hubei province from 2012 to 2016, the study applies CCR model of the DEA method to setup an evaluation indicator system of regional economy development efficiency. As a typical representative of mining and metallurgy city, Huangshi is taken as an example to be made the projection analysis on some non-DEA efficient areas. Based on the angle of mining and metallurgy city, some measures are put forward the in improving the efficiency of regional economic development. The established indicators system has a certain significance in enriching the existing research and projection analysis of the assessment results have certain guiding significance to adjust the input and output of major municipalities.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121478507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Frailty correlated default on retail consumer loans in Zimbabwe 经济疲软与津巴布韦零售消费贷款违约有关
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-03-19 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.100436
Richard Chamboko, J. Bravo
{"title":"Frailty correlated default on retail consumer loans in Zimbabwe","authors":"Richard Chamboko, J. Bravo","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2019.100436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2019.100436","url":null,"abstract":"There has been increasing availability of consumer credit in Zimbabwe, yet the credit information sharing systems are not as advanced. Using frailty survival models on credit bureau data from Zimbabwe; this study investigates the possible underestimation of credit losses under the assumption of independence of default event times. The study found that adding a frailty term significantly improved the models, thus indicating the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. The major policy recommendation is for the regulator to institute appropriate policy frameworks to allow robust and complete credit information sharing and reporting as doing so will significantly improve the functioning of the credit market.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121515671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Modelling and forecasting recurrent recovery events on consumer loans 模拟和预测消费者贷款的周期性恢复事件
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-03-19 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.100440
Richard Chamboko, J. Bravo
{"title":"Modelling and forecasting recurrent recovery events on consumer loans","authors":"Richard Chamboko, J. Bravo","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2019.100440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2019.100440","url":null,"abstract":"Even though multiple failure-time data are ubiquitous in finance and economics especially in the credit risk domain, it is unfortunate that naive statistical techniques which ignore the subsequent events are commonly used to analyse such data. Applying standard statistical methods without addressing the recurrence of the events produces biased and inefficient estimates, thus offering erroneous predictions. We explore various ways of modelling and forecasting recurrent delinquency and recovery events on consumer loans. Using consumer loans data from a severely distressed economic environment, we illustrate and empirically compare extended Cox models for ordered recurrent recovery events. We highlight that accounting for multiple events proffers detailed information, thus providing a nuanced understanding of the recovery prognosis of delinquents. For ordered indistinguishable recurrent recovery events, we recommend using the Andersen and Gill (1982) model since it fits the assumptions and performs well on predicting recovery.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116159678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Integrative review and new directions for future research of external Guanxi: in the Chinese context 外部关系研究的综合回顾与未来研究的新方向:在中国语境下
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-03-19 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.100438
Min Li, Fangbin Xiao, Bijun Xie, Baoni Xu, Jie Zhou
{"title":"Integrative review and new directions for future research of external Guanxi: in the Chinese context","authors":"Min Li, Fangbin Xiao, Bijun Xie, Baoni Xu, Jie Zhou","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2019.100438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2019.100438","url":null,"abstract":"With the continuous development of China's economy, Guanxi management, as one of China's management research topics, has attracted more and more attention from scholars both domestically and overseas. This paper aims to carry out an integrated review of external Guanxi, providing a research basis and direction for further research. The study reviews mainly external Guanxi in the recent 30 years of literature. Through analysis connotation and classification of external Guanxi along with its, path, influence factors, and result variables, this article seeks to remedy the shortage of existing research. Additionally, this article presents future research directions for external Guanxi.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133520677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
An extended multi-attribute group decision approach for selection of outsourcing services activities for information technology under risks 风险下信息技术外包服务活动选择的扩展多属性群决策方法
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-03-19 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019808
S. Mousavi, H. Gitinavard
{"title":"An extended multi-attribute group decision approach for selection of outsourcing services activities for information technology under risks","authors":"S. Mousavi, H. Gitinavard","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2019.10019808","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, selection of outsourcing services activities for information technology (IT) which are defined under some outsourcing projects is a challenge for companies under competitive and uncertain environments. To address the issue, assessment techniques via group decision-making could be provided to appropriately appraise the candidates regarding the incomplete information and existing complexity. This study proposes a new integrated group assessment approach based on interval-valued hesitant fuzzy (IVHF) environment to select the best outsourcing projects regarding risks and incomplete information. The proposed approach is established via some procedures to determine experts' weights, criteria weights and candidates' rankings. The interval-valued hesitant fuzzy-collective wisdom weighting (IVHF-CWW) method is presented to compute the weight of each expert/decision maker (DM). Moreover, the interval-valued hesitant fuzzy-preference weighting (IVHF-PW) technique is presented to determine weights of evaluation criteria. Furthermore, the IVHF-utility index approach is elaborated to rank the candidate outsourcing projects. Finally, a practical study is provided to check the feasibility and validity of the proposed interval-valued hesitant fuzzy-integrated group decision-making (IVHF-IGDM) approach.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124885863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
An empirical study on internet-based false news stories: experiences, problem awareness and responsibilities 网络虚假新闻故事的实证研究:经验、问题意识与责任
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2019-01-26 DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/8ezdn
Sven Grüner
{"title":"An empirical study on internet-based false news stories: experiences, problem awareness and responsibilities","authors":"Sven Grüner","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/8ezdn","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/8ezdn","url":null,"abstract":"The Internet has significantly reduced the marginal costs of generating and disseminating information. The human information portfolio includes correct and incorrect information. False news stories constitute a challenge for our democracy. Therefore, scientists are increasingly interested in redesigning the information ecosystem. This paper addresses the problem awareness of university students in the realm of false news stories. With the help of a questionnaire, we seek for interesting correlations to generate hypotheses that can be analyzed in further studies with new data (i.e., exploratory study). The hypotheses read as follows: (i) Facebook users are more likely to suspect to be in touch with false news stories if they are interested in politics. People are less likely to assume to deal with false news stories the stronger they trust in others and the more emphasis they put on the opinions of others, (ii) False news stories are perceived as a problem at the societal level but not at the individual level, (iii) Men more often than women believe to be in touch with false news stories; men overestimate their ability to spot false news stories. People who fear false news stories are likely to believe that they could detect such information better than the average, and (iv) People see operators of platforms to be in charge of false news stories; people seem to have less confidence in the government.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124754503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
3D model for optimising the communication topologies of iterated N-players prisoners' dilemma 优化迭代n人囚徒困境通信拓扑的三维模型
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2018-10-04 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2018.095281
Sally Almanasra, K. Suwais
{"title":"3D model for optimising the communication topologies of iterated N-players prisoners' dilemma","authors":"Sally Almanasra, K. Suwais","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2018.095281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2018.095281","url":null,"abstract":"The evolution of cooperative behaviour in iterated N-players prisoners' dilemma (INPPD) is studied over several communication topologies. Existing models presented several solution models for evolving the cooperative behaviour among INPPD players. The researches revealed that none of the existing models pay attention to the pivot role of the best players in evolving the cooperative behaviour. In this paper, we present a 3D model for optimising communication topologies of INPPD to increase the cooperative rate between players. The 3D model aims to transfer well-known topologies to new 3D topologies that give the best players major roles in the game. This is important as exchanging experiences between players is essential for evolving effective cooperation. Concerning the evolutionary algorithm, this model was designed with the support of a genetic algorithm with synchronous updating to evolve the players' strategies. The results showed that the 3D model could increase the cooperative rate dramatically when compared to the original communication topologies.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"43 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121929053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A heuristic algorithm enhanced with probability-based incremental learning and local search for dynamic facility layout problems 基于概率增量学习和局部搜索的启发式算法求解动态设施布局问题
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2018-10-04 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2018.095279
T. G. Pradeepmon, V. V. Panicker, R. Sridharan
{"title":"A heuristic algorithm enhanced with probability-based incremental learning and local search for dynamic facility layout problems","authors":"T. G. Pradeepmon, V. V. Panicker, R. Sridharan","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2018.095279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2018.095279","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamic facility layout problem (DFLP) involves finding an arrangement of facilities that minimises the sum of material handling cost and rearrangement cost over multiple periods. In this paper, the DFLP is modelled as a multiple quadratic assignment problem (QAP), one for each period. Probability-based incremental learning algorithm with a pair-wise exchange local search (PBILA-PWX) is proposed for solving the QAP for each period. The proposed heuristic and 16 algorithms available in the literature are applied for solving a set of 48 benchmark instances of the DFLP. For most of the problem instances, the proposed heuristic provides better results in comparison with an existing robust algorithm. The deviations of the solutions for the proposed heuristic are found to be within 5% of the best known solutions. A case study conducted for determining the machine shop layout of firm manufacturing printing machines is also presented.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114809848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Time-cost trade-off resource-constrained project scheduling problem with stochastic duration and time crashing 具有随机工期和时间崩溃的时间成本权衡资源约束项目调度问题
Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. Pub Date : 2018-10-04 DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2018.095271
Zhe Zhang, Xuejuan Zhong
{"title":"Time-cost trade-off resource-constrained project scheduling problem with stochastic duration and time crashing","authors":"Zhe Zhang, Xuejuan Zhong","doi":"10.1504/IJADS.2018.095271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJADS.2018.095271","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, time crashing is implemented to solve the limitation of buffer insertion when consider the high variability of activities and resources in resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). The activity duration and resource are considered to be beta and exponential distributed, respectively. To settle the discrete time-cost trade off problem, a nonlinear combinatorial optimisation model is developed to pursuing the time, cost and robustness of the project. Six improvement principles are proposed and three balance points are discovered according to the different situations in the time-cost trade-off process, in which the earliness bonus, tardiness penalty, instability cost and time crashing cost are involved. To minimise total budget of the project, tabu search and starting time criticality heuristic is designed as the solution method. Finally, a numerical example is presented to highlight the efficiency of proposed model and solution method.","PeriodicalId":216414,"journal":{"name":"Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci.","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128138461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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