Resources Policy最新文献

{"title":"Corruption, terrorism and illicit financial flows related to extractive commodity trade in Africa","authors":"Simplice A. Asongu ,&nbsp;Juste Somé","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The purpose of this study is to assess the incidence of illicit financial flows (IFFs) on terrorism in Africa, contingent on corruption-control. The study utilizes data from 38 African counties spanning from 2002 to 2021. In order to increase room for policy implications, the overall IFFs measure is decomposed into two main sub-components, namely: illicit financial inflows and illicit financial outflows. The empirical evidence is also based on: (i) baseline regressions, (ii) estimations with the lagged independent variables in order to control for the simultaneity dimension of endogeneity, as well as (iii) GMM in order to account for both the simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity dimensions of endogeneity. The robustness of the empirical analysis is further improved by limiting the sample to the Sahel countries in which most of the terrorism has been documented over the past decades. It is apparent from the findings that corruption-control effectively moderates IFFs, especially illicit financial inflows, in order to engender an overall negative effect on the outcome variable or terrorism. For the most part, the corruption-control policy thresholds are within policy range. Policy implications are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105569"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing density uncertainty in iron ore deposits: Taking advantage of the density and Fe grades correlation aiming to more accurate models","authors":"W. Emilio G. Moreno,&nbsp;Marcel Antônio Bassani,&nbsp;Diego Marques,&nbsp;João Felipe Coimbra Leite Costa","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the critical role of density in the economic evaluation of mineral deposits and how uncertain could be the density models without considering the available secondary information. Most mining companies subjectively determine sample quantity and spatial distribution for density estimation. Usually, the density samples are sparser than the grade samples. Fewer samples tend to generate higher uncertainty as less information is available. Although the density has fewer samples, it is correlated positively with iron grades in an iron deposit. However, this correlation between density and grade is not considered to generate density models. In this context, this research aims to reduce the uncertainty associated with density in iron ore deposits by exploring the correlation between grades and density, using this information to create density models. Therefore, the iron grade was used as an auxiliary variable to create density models proposing different multivariate geostatistical techniques. Two cosimulation approaches were proposed. The first one uses simple cokriging to incorporate the auxiliary variable, while the second uses intrinsic collocated cokriging. These two approaches were compared against univariate geostatistical simulation, which ignores the correlation between density and grades. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of incorporating iron grades in density models, observing histogram matching, reproduction of spatial continuity, the possibility of using the E-Type as estimated models, conditional standard deviation reduction and better accuracy plots in ore and waste domains. Also, a mass analysis was performed in ore domains, making evident how consider Fe grades could change what to expect in future. The study concludes that leveraging iron grades significantly reduces uncertainty in density models, providing accurate and reliable models and proposing methodologies that could be extrapolated to estimates, being viable to create density estimated models for more effective mining planning and resource management in iron deposits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105561"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Globality in the metal markets: Leveraging cross-learning to forecast aluminum and copper prices","authors":"Konstantinos Oikonomou ,&nbsp;Dimitris Damigos ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Dimitriou","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last 25 years, aluminum and copper prices have fluctuated significantly, impacting mining companies, economies of mining countries and global financial markets. Accurate price forecasting can be useful for better budget planning, strategic decision making and portfolio management. To bridge recent developments in time series forecasting with commodity price forecasting, we investigate the performance of a recently prominent framework called global forecasting or cross-learning. Juxtaposed to the local approach, under which one model would be used for each time series requiring forecasts, this framework involves the training of a single (global) model using a set of relevant time series to create future predictions. In our analysis, we assume that incorporating stock prices of mining companies into global forecasting models can enhance the prediction accuracy of aluminum and copper prices compared to traditional forecasting methods. In this direction, we use a pool of auxiliary time series that includes the prices of the two commodities and the stock prices of major companies involved in their production and processing to train global feed-forward neural networks. The models differ in their approach to selecting relevant time series used in training and are either used as standalones or in combination with standard univariate models to forecast the two commodities’ prices 3, 6 and 12 months ahead. The performance of the models is then compared to benchmark univariate (local) models, namely the naïve method, ARIMA, and autoregressive feed-forward neural networks. The analysis suggests that the incorporation of information from different (albeit related) markets achieved through cross-learning is beneficial for forecasting the prices of the two commodities since, for all forecast horizons examined, the models achieving the lowest out-of-sample error were either standalone global models or local-global ensembles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105558"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring shock transmission and risk diversification in REIT, commodity, and green bond markets under extreme market conditions","authors":"Abdullah AlGhazali ,&nbsp;Houssem Eddine Belghouthi ,&nbsp;Mohamed Amine Nabli ,&nbsp;Walid Mensi ,&nbsp;Sang Hoon Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the connectedness between international real estate investment trusts (REITs), commodity futures (Gold, Silver, WTI oil, and Brent oil), and green bonds using a quantile frequency connectedness approach. The results show a stronger connectivity during bearish and bullish market conditions. Moreover, the connectedness is more intense in the short term (medium and long terms) when markets are in a bearish (bullish) situation. The REIT markets in Canada, France, and the United States predominantly function as net shock transmitters, whereas the Hong Kong market serves as a net shock receiver. Using a quantile-on-quantile regression, we discern a positive relationship between markets during bear phases. However, this relationship reverses to a negative when REITs are bearish and other markets are bullish, indicating that commodities and green bonds serve as a safe haven and are effective for hedging and portfolio diversification. Precious metals and green bonds prove to be more effective than oil in minimizing risk in REIT-based portfolios. Overall, these findings have important implications on risk management and portfolio optimization, particularly in times of market volatility. Policy makers can utilize these findings to implement measures that alleviate the effects of cross-market shocks and strengthen financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105557"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does third-party monitoring reduce environmental violations in mining firms?","authors":"Renjie Zhou ,&nbsp;Yongheng Luo ,&nbsp;Zhengye Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compared to air and water pollution, mining pollution is often more difficult to identify and monitor due to its inherent concealment and persistence. The inadequacy of government regulatory oversight also implies the potential to leverage the widespread and continuous benefits of third-party monitoring. This study conducts a quasi-natural experiment based on the Pollution Information Transparency Index (PITI) project launched by environmental organizations to observe the net impact of third-party monitoring on firms. Using longitudinal data (2006–2018) on Chinese listed firms in the mining industry, and based on a series of endogeneity and robustness tests, we observe robust evidence that third-party monitoring can significantly reduce corporate environmental violations in mining firms. Heterogeneity analysis shows that, compared to non-open-pit mining firms, open-pit mining firms show a more pronounced improvement in the impact of third-party monitoring on corporate environmental violations. And compared to non-coal mining firms, coal mining firms are more susceptible to third-party monitoring. Mechanism analysis shows that third-party monitoring works through promoting government environmental enforcement, broader public participation, and firms' disclosure quality. Further analysis suggests that third-party monitoring can still be effective in cases where environmental enforcement is weak.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105565"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143680050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The predictive power of the oil variance risk premium","authors":"David G. McMillan ,&nbsp;Salem Adel Ziadat","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the ability of the oil market variance risk premium (VRP) to predict both financial and key macroeconomic series. Interest in understanding the movement of such variables increasingly involves considering measures of investor risk, for which the VRP, that incorporates both implied and realised variance, has recently come to the fore. It is well established that oil price movement impacts both the stock market and wider economy and thus, we examine whether this is also true of the oil VRP. Using monthly US data over the period from 2009 to 2021, we demonstrate the nature of oil VRP predictive power for oil and stock returns, as well as output growth, unemployment, and inflation. Of notable interest, while predictability from the oil VRP series dominates at the one-month horizon and (largely) wanes at over longer time periods, the reverse is found for the stock VRP. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional, established, predictor variables. This indicates that the impact of oil market risk has a more immediate effect on both the stock market and economy, with stock market risk reflecting longer term considerations. A simple out-of-sample exercise supports the view that the inclusion of oil VRP improves forecasts over alternative models that exclude this series.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105550"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price contagion and risk spillover in the global commodities market: COVID-19 pandemic vs. global financial crisis","authors":"Md Mostafa Kamal ,&nbsp;Eduardo Roca ,&nbsp;Bin Li ,&nbsp;Chen Lin ,&nbsp;Rajibur Reza","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing cross-correlation-based Planar Maximally Filtered Graph, and conditional Value-at-Risk-based extreme risk spillover network approaches, we analyze the structure and dynamics of price contagion and risk transmission between different commodity groups in the global commodity futures market during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. As expected, owing to the fundamental differences between the two crises, we find very divergent commodity network structures and non-identical direction of risk transmission between commodities in these two crises. Gold and silver, however, continued to play their role of risk transmitters based on several factors, including the severity of the economic or political crisis, prevailing market sentiment, and the distinctive attributes of the affected asset classes in both crisis—right at the beginning of the GFC but towards the latter part of the COVID19 crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105553"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Open-pit phase design considering operational constraints: Towards the generation of high adherence production planning policies","authors":"Pierre Nancel-Penard ,&nbsp;Enrique Jelvez ,&nbsp;Diego Mancilla ,&nbsp;Gerson Morales","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The conventional method for formulating open-pit mine production strategies suffers several drawbacks. One of them is that the generation of the extraction sequence is done in separate stages and does not consider the temporality of the extraction and processing decisions, so it does not maximize the net present value. In addition, the solutions obtained are difficult to implement because they do not ensure minimum operating spaces for the use of large mining equipment. Consequently, the process is performed sub-optimally. This work proposes a novel methodology to address the open-pit phase design under a mathematical programming approach. For this, an integer program generates phases that maximize an approximation of net present value and satisfy (i) minimum geometric spaces between phases and (ii) minimum and maximum capacities of the mining operation per phase, aiming for practical open-pit mine production planning policies. This methodology was applied in a case study, and the results show its ability to generate practical phases, obtaining differences in net present value lower than 2.02% compared to an optimization approach that does not consider these operational constraints. Therefore, the proposed open-pit mine extraction policy significantly improves its operational design without considerably affecting the expected value promise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105546"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quarrying CSR index: Social, economic and environmental factors in the analysis of the quarrying industry","authors":"Marc Bascompta,&nbsp;Lluís Sanmiquel,&nbsp;Nor Sidki-Rius,&nbsp;Enrique Bonet,&nbsp;Maria Teresa Yubero","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) index is introduced to quantitatively evaluate quarrying activities. The index is based on fifteen indicators representing the environmental, social, and economic dimensions, providing a straightforward and flexible tool to analyze and enhance the value of quarrying projects at any stage. The proposed method enables the assessment of a quarry through three levels: individual indicators, dimensions (comprising multiple indicators), and an aggregated value encompassing all three dimensions. The Quarrying CSR index has been applied to three case studies, demonstrating its effectiveness and potential applications within the sector. Additionally, it relies on easily verifiable data, promoting transparency in evaluations and fostering stronger engagement with stakeholders. The system also facilitates the analysis of patterns and trends across subsectors and regions within the quarrying industry, as well as the evaluation of policy implementation in the sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105560"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effects of global uncertainty and risks on metal prices: Evidence from frequency and time domain causality tests","authors":"İdris Demir ,&nbsp;Halil İbrahim Aydın ,&nbsp;Gökhan Erkal ,&nbsp;Ömer Yalçınkaya","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Metal prices are heavily affected by global uncertainties and risks. Empirical studies have analyzed the causality between global uncertainties, risks, and metal prices using traditional methods and ignored the frequency and time-domain relations. The study aims to fill the existing research gap by analyzing the relationship between global uncertainties and risks and metal prices, considering the effects on the supply side of metals and their prices on the demand side. Therefore, using the news-based GEPU and GPR indices for 1990:01–2024:04, the relationships between uncertainties and risks and price returns of the most traded base and precious metals in international markets are analyzed with frequency and time domain Granger causality tests. The results show that the relationship between GPR and GEPU and the returns of metals is not uniform enough to be explained by the traditional Granger causality tests used in previous studies and varies significantly according to the frequency-time domain. According to the frequency domain, unidirectional and bidirectional causality relationships were found between GPR and GEPU and metal prices in the short, medium, and long run. In addition, in the time domain, the causality relationships between GPR, GEPU, and metal price returns coincide with periods of increased uncertainties and risks or economic recessions such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic experienced by the global economy. These results emphasize the importance of strategic planning for the sustainability of economic development, as governments should diversify markets and turn to alternative sources of supply for the supply of needed metals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105555"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143680049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}