Multi-scenario land use simulation for fast human growth regions: A case study of Zambia's Solwezi mining district

Abstract

Mining operations in developing countries drive rapid land-use changes, with significant socio-economic and environmental impacts. This study analyses future land-use dynamics in Zambia's Solwezi District from 2022 to 2050, applying the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model across four scenarios: sustainable development (S1), business-as-usual (S2), fast development (S3), and unrestricted development (S4). Results highlight contrasting outcomes. S4, characterised by minimal regulatory oversight, leads to forest loss exceeding 1000 km², urban area expansion by 200 km², and mining growth of 85 km², illustrating the ecological risks of unchecked development. In comparison, S3 projects forest loss of 914 km², urban growth of 170 km², and mining expansion of 45 km², while S2 predicts forest loss of 753 km², urban growth of 150 km², and mining expansion of 38 km². S1 reflects a balanced growth model with forest loss limited to 631 km², urban growth of 120 km², and mining expansion constrained to 30 km², demonstrating the feasibility of harmonising economic development with ecological preservation through robust land management. Findings emphasize the critical role of land use planning in mitigating the negative impacts of mining and urban expansion. S1 provides a viable pathway for sustainable development, aligning with global sustainability targets by limiting the conversion of ecologically sensitive areas. S2 and S3 indicate a gradual erosion of ecosystem services, while S4 highlights the severe consequences of unregulated growth, including environmental degradation, pollution, and social challenges. These results highlight the need for strong governance frameworks to manage land use and promote sustainable development in mining regions.