Psychological methods最新文献_第4页

Inference with cross-lagged effects-Problems in time. 交叉滞后效应推断--时间问题。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1037/met0000665

Charles C Driver

{"title":"Inference with cross-lagged effects-Problems in time.","authors":"Charles C Driver","doi":"10.1037/met0000665","DOIUrl":"10.1037/met0000665","url":null,"abstract":"The interpretation of cross-effects from vector autoregressive models to infer structure and causality among constructs is widespread and sometimes problematic. I describe problems in the interpretation of cross-effects when processes that are thought to fluctuate continuously in time are, as is typically done, modeled as changing only in discrete steps (as in e.g., structural equation modeling)-zeroes in a discrete-time temporal matrix do not necessarily correspond to zero effects in the underlying continuous processes, and vice versa. This has implications for the common case when the presence or absence of cross-effects is used for inference about underlying causal processes. I demonstrate these problems via simulation, and also show that when an underlying set of processes are continuous in time, even relatively few direct causal links can result in much denser temporal effect matrices in discrete-time. I demonstrate one solution to these issues, namely parameterizing the system as a stochastic differential equation and focusing inference on the continuous-time temporal effects. I follow this with some discussion of issues regarding the switch to continuous-time, specifically regularization, appropriate measurement time lag, and model order. An empirical example using intensive longitudinal data highlights some of the complexities of applying such approaches to real data, particularly with respect to model specification, examining misspecification, and parameter interpretation. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":"174-202"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141634308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Everything has its price: Foundations of cost-sensitive machine learning and its application in psychology. 凡事皆有代价:成本敏感型机器学习的基础及其在心理学中的应用。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1037/met0000586

Philipp Sterner, David Goretzko, Florian Pargent

{"title":"Everything has its price: Foundations of cost-sensitive machine learning and its application in psychology.","authors":"Philipp Sterner, David Goretzko, Florian Pargent","doi":"10.1037/met0000586","DOIUrl":"10.1037/met0000586","url":null,"abstract":"Psychology has seen an increase in the use of machine learning (ML) methods. In many applications, observations are classified into one of two groups (binary classification). Off-the-shelf classification algorithms assume that the costs of a misclassification (false positive or false negative) are equal. Because this is often not reasonable (e.g., in clinical psychology), cost-sensitive machine learning (CSL) methods can take different cost ratios into account. We present the mathematical foundations and introduce a taxonomy of the most commonly used CSL methods, before demonstrating their application and usefulness on psychological data, that is, the drug consumption data set (N = 1, 885) from the University of California Irvine ML Repository. In our example, all demonstrated CSL methods noticeably reduced mean misclassification costs compared to regular ML algorithms. We discuss the necessity for researchers to perform small benchmarks of CSL methods for their own practical application. Thus, our open materials provide R code, demonstrating how CSL methods can be applied within the mlr3 framework (https://osf.io/cvks7/). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":"112-127"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9967423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A primer on synthesizing individual participant data obtained from complex sampling surveys: A two-stage IPD meta-analysis approach. 综合从复杂抽样调查中获得的个体参与者数据的入门指南：两阶段 IPD 元分析方法。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000539

Diego G Campos, Mike W-L Cheung, Ronny Scherer

{"title":"A primer on synthesizing individual participant data obtained from complex sampling surveys: A two-stage IPD meta-analysis approach.","authors":"Diego G Campos, Mike W-L Cheung, Ronny Scherer","doi":"10.1037/met0000539","DOIUrl":"10.1037/met0000539","url":null,"abstract":"The increasing availability of individual participant data (IPD) in the social sciences offers new possibilities to synthesize research evidence across primary studies. Two-stage IPD meta-analysis represents a framework that can utilize these possibilities. While most of the methodological research on two-stage IPD meta-analysis focused on its performance compared with other approaches, dealing with the complexities of the primary and meta-analytic data has received little attention, particularly when IPD are drawn from complex sampling surveys. Complex sampling surveys often feature clustering, stratification, and multistage sampling to obtain nationally or internationally representative data from a target population. Furthermore, IPD from these studies is likely to provide more than one effect size. To address these complexities, we propose a two-stage meta-analytic approach that generates model-based effect sizes in Stage 1 and synthesizes them in Stage 2. We present a sequence of steps, illustrate their implementation, and discuss the methodological decisions and options within. Given its flexibility to deal with the complex nature of the primary and meta-analytic data and its ability to combine multiple IPD sets or IPD with aggregated data, the proposed two-stage approach opens up new analytic possibilities for synthesizing knowledge from complex sampling surveys. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":"83-111"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10501727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Linear mixed models and latent growth curve models for group comparison studies contaminated by outliers. 线性混合模型和潜在增长曲线模型，用于受异常值污染的分组比较研究。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1037/met0000643

Fabio Mason, Eva Cantoni, Paolo Ghisletta

{"title":"Linear mixed models and latent growth curve models for group comparison studies contaminated by outliers.","authors":"Fabio Mason, Eva Cantoni, Paolo Ghisletta","doi":"10.1037/met0000643","DOIUrl":"10.1037/met0000643","url":null,"abstract":"The linear mixed model (LMM) and latent growth model (LGM) are frequently applied to within-subject two-group comparison studies to investigate group differences in the time effect, supposedly due to differential group treatments. Yet, research about LMM and LGM in the presence of outliers (defined as observations with a very low probability of occurrence if assumed from a given distribution) is scarce. Moreover, when such research exists, it focuses on estimation properties (bias and efficiency), neglecting inferential characteristics (e.g., power and type-I error). We study power and type-I error rates of Wald-type and bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs), as well as coverage and length of CIs and mean absolute error (MAE) of estimates, associated with classical and robust estimations of LMM and LGM, applied to a within-subject two-group comparison design. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to compare CIs and MAEs under different conditions: data (a) without contamination, (b) contaminated by within-subject outliers, (c) contaminated by between-subject outliers, and (d) both contaminated by within- and between-subject outliers. Results show that without contamination, methods perform similarly, except CIs based on S, a robust LMM estimator, which are slightly less close to nominal values in their coverage. However, in the presence of both within- and between-subject outliers, CIs based on robust estimators, especially S, performed better than those of classical methods. In particular, the percentile CI with the wild bootstrap applied to the robust LMM estimators outperformed all other methods, especially with between-subject outliers, when we found the classical Wald-type CI based on the t statistic with Satterthwaite approximation for LMM to be highly misleading. We provide R code to compute all methods presented here. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":"155-173"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139735975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of two independent populations of compositional data with positive correlations among components using a nested dirichlet distribution. 使用嵌套狄利克雷分布比较成分间正相关的两个独立总体组成数据。

IF 7 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1037/met0000702

Jacob A Turner,Bianca A Luedeker,Monnie McGee

{"title":"Comparison of two independent populations of compositional data with positive correlations among components using a nested dirichlet distribution.","authors":"Jacob A Turner,Bianca A Luedeker,Monnie McGee","doi":"10.1037/met0000702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000702","url":null,"abstract":"Compositional data are multivariate data made up of components that sum to a fixed value. Often the data are presented as proportions of a whole, where the value of each component is constrained to be between 0 and 1 and the sum of the components is 1. There are many applications in psychology and other disciplines that yield compositional data sets including Morris water maze experiments, psychological well-being scores, analysis of daily physical activity times, and components of household expenditures. Statistical methods exist for compositional data and typically consist of two approaches. The first is to use transformation strategies, such as log ratios, which can lead to results that are challenging to interpret. The second involves using an appropriate distribution, such as the Dirichlet distribution, that captures the key characteristics of compositional data, and allows for ready interpretation of downstream analysis. Unfortunately, the Dirichlet distribution has constraints on variance and correlation that render it inappropriate for some applications. As a result, practicing researchers will often resort to standard two-sample t test or analysis of variance models for each variable in the composition to detect differences in means. We show that a recently published method using the Dirichlet distribution can drastically inflate Type I error rates, and we introduce a global two-sample test to detect differences in mean proportion of components for two independent groups where both groups are from either a Dirichlet or a more flexible nested Dirichlet distribution. We also derive confidence interval formulas for individual components for post hoc testing and further interpretation of results. We illustrate the utility of our methods using a recent Morris water maze experiment and human activity data. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142989142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic factor analysis with multivariate time series of multiple individuals: An error-corrected estimation method. 多个体多变量时间序列动态因子分析：一种误差校正估计方法。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000722

Guangjian Zhang, Dayoung Lee, Yilin Li, Anthony Ong

{"title":"Dynamic factor analysis with multivariate time series of multiple individuals: An error-corrected estimation method.","authors":"Guangjian Zhang, Dayoung Lee, Yilin Li, Anthony Ong","doi":"10.1037/met0000722","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000722","url":null,"abstract":"Intensive longitudinal data, increasingly common in social and behavioral sciences, often consist of multivariate time series from multiple individuals. Dynamic factor analysis, combining factor analysis and time series analysis, has been used to uncover individual-specific processes from single-individual time series. However, integrating these processes across individuals is challenging due to estimation errors in individual-specific parameter estimates. We propose a method that integrates individual-specific processes while accommodating the corresponding estimation error. This method is computationally efficient and robust against model specification errors and nonnormal data. We compare our method with a Naive approach that ignores estimation error using both empirical and simulated data. The two methods produced similar estimates for fixed effect parameters, but the proposed method produced more satisfactory estimates for random effects than the Naive method. The relative advantage of the proposed method was more substantial for short to moderately long time series (T = 56-200). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142953930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A causal research pipeline and tutorial for psychologists and social scientists. 心理学家和社会科学家的因果研究管道和教程。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1037/met0000673

Matthew James Vowels

{"title":"A causal research pipeline and tutorial for psychologists and social scientists.","authors":"Matthew James Vowels","doi":"10.1037/met0000673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000673","url":null,"abstract":"Causality is a fundamental part of the scientific endeavor to understand the world. Unfortunately, causality is still taboo in much of psychology and social science. Motivated by a growing number of recommendations for the importance of adopting causal approaches to research, we reformulate the typical approach to research in psychology to harmonize inevitably causal theories with the rest of the research pipeline. We present a new process which begins with the incorporation of techniques from the confluence of causal discovery and machine learning for the development, validation, and transparent formal specification of theories. We then present methods for reducing the complexity of the fully specified theoretical model into the fundamental submodel relevant to a given target hypothesis. From here, we establish whether or not the quantity of interest is estimable from the data, and if so, propose the use of semi-parametric machine learning methods for the estimation of causal effects. The overall goal is the presentation of a new research pipeline which can (a) facilitate scientific inquiry compatible with the desire to test causal theories (b) encourage transparent representation of our theories as unambiguous mathematical objects, (c) tie our statistical models to specific attributes of the theory, thus reducing under-specification problems frequently resulting from the theory-to-model gap, and (d) yield results and estimates which are causally meaningful and reproducible. The process is demonstrated through didactic examples with real-world data, and we conclude with a summary and discussion of limitations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142932515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic structural equation modeling with floor effects. 考虑楼板效应的动力结构方程建模。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1037/met0000720

Bengt Muthén, Tihomir Asparouhov, Saul Shiffman

引用次数: 0

A guided tutorial on linear mixed-effects models for the analysis of accuracies and response times in experiments with fully crossed design. 线性混合效应模型指导教程，用于分析完全交叉设计实验中的精确度和响应时间。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1037/met0000708

Ottavia M Epifania, Pasquale Anselmi, Egidio Robusto

{"title":"A guided tutorial on linear mixed-effects models for the analysis of accuracies and response times in experiments with fully crossed design.","authors":"Ottavia M Epifania, Pasquale Anselmi, Egidio Robusto","doi":"10.1037/met0000708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000708","url":null,"abstract":"Experiments with fully crossed designs are often used in experimental psychology spanning several fields, from cognitive psychology to social cognition. These experiments consist in the presentation of stimuli representing super-ordinate categories, which have to be sorted into the correct category in two contrasting conditions. This tutorial presents a linear mixed-effects model approach for obtaining Rasch-like parameterizations of response times and accuracies of fully crossed design data. The modeling framework for the analysis of fully crossed design data is outlined along with a step-by-step guide of its application, which is further illustrated with two practical examples based on empirical data. The first example regards a cognitive psychology experiment and pertains to the evaluation of a spatial-numerical association of response codes effect. The second one is based on a social cognition experiment for the implicit evaluation of racial attitudes. A fully commented R script for reproducing the analyses illustrated in the examples is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142819020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bayes factors for logistic (mixed-effect) models. logistic（混合效应）模型的贝叶斯因子。

IF 7.6 1区心理学

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1037/met0000714

Catriona Silvey, Zoltan Dienes, Elizabeth Wonnacott

{"title":"Bayes factors for logistic (mixed-effect) models.","authors":"Catriona Silvey, Zoltan Dienes, Elizabeth Wonnacott","doi":"10.1037/met0000714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000714","url":null,"abstract":"In psychology, we often want to know whether or not an effect exists. The traditional way of answering this question is to use frequentist statistics. However, a significance test against a null hypothesis of no effect cannot distinguish between two states of affairs: evidence of absence of an effect and the absence of evidence for or against an effect. Bayes factors can make this distinction; however, uptake of Bayes factors in psychology has so far been low for two reasons. First, they require researchers to specify the range of effect sizes their theory predicts. Researchers are often unsure about how to do this, leading to the use of inappropriate default values which may give misleading results. Second, many implementations of Bayes factors have a substantial technical learning curve. We present a case study and simulations demonstrating a simple method for generating a range of plausible effect sizes, that is, a model of Hypothesis 1, for treatment effects where there is a binary-dependent variable. We illustrate this using mainly the estimates from frequentist logistic mixed-effects models (because of their widespread adoption) but also using Bayesian model comparison with Bayesian hierarchical models (which have increased flexibility). Bayes factors calculated using these estimates provide intuitively reasonable results across a range of real effect sizes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142819021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0