{"title":"Measuring Risk by Looking at Changes in Inequality: Vulnerability in Ecuador","authors":"Ethan Ligon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1774020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1774020","url":null,"abstract":"We describe a measure of welfare, \"vulnerability\", which measures the difference between the highest feasible average level of utility in a population given aggregate resources, and the actual average level of utility. This measure can be decomposed into two components, related to inequality and to risk. We provide methods for computing vulnerability, inequality, and risk using only data on expenditures from repeated cross-sections of household data, and relate these to Atkinson's family of inequality measures. Using methods developed here and household-level Ecuadorean data from 1995 and 2006, we estimate the vulnerability and risk of i?½different population groups. Taking the population altogether, we find that the crisis of the late nineties was not only a large shock for the country as a whole, but also greatly increased the risk faced by individual households in the Sierra, risk which was subsequently translated into greater inequality. After 1999, overall risk borne by the average household fell dramatically, with the consequence that inequality remained nearly constant from 1999-2006. Levels of rural risk are considerably greater than are urban; further, rural risks tend to be the consequence of spatial shocks, while urban risks are much more idiosyncratic in nature.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127562198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Years of Schooling, Human Capital and the Body Mass Index of European Females","authors":"G. Brunello, D. Fabbri, Margherita Fort","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1530671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1530671","url":null,"abstract":"We use the compulsory school reforms implemented in European countries after the II World War to investigate the causal effect of education on the Body Mass Index (BMI) and the incidence of overweight and obesity among European females. Our IV estimates suggest that years of schooling have a protective effect on BMI. The size of the estimated effect is not negligible but smaller than the one found in comparable recent work for the US. We depart from the current empirical literature in three main directions. First, we use a multi-country approach. Second, we complement the standard analysis of the causal impact of years of schooling on BMI with one relying on a broader measure of education, i.e. individual standardized cognitive tests, and show that the current focus in the literature on years of schooling as the measure of education is not misplaced. Last, we evaluate whether the current focus on conditional mean effects should be integrated with an approach which allows for heterogeneous responses to changes in compulsory education. Although our evidence based on quantile regressions is mixed, there is some indication that the protective effect of schooling does not increase monotonically from the lower to the upper quantile of the distribution of BMI. Rather, the marginal effect is stronger among overweight (but not obese) females than among females with BMI above 30.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"43 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116302157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison of Some Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques","authors":"Tonatiuh Pena Centeno, Serafin Martinez Jaramillo, Bolanle Abudu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1525947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1525947","url":null,"abstract":"We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifically, we compare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and different instances of Gaussian processes (GP's) -that is GP's classifiers, Bayesian Fisher discriminant and Warped GP's. Our contribution to the field of computational finance is to introduce GP's as a potentially competitive probabilistic framework for bankruptcy prediction. Data from the repository of information of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is used to test the predictions.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"262 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134008625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk Apportionment Via Bivariate Stochastic Dominance","authors":"Octave Jokung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1550225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1550225","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends to bivariate utility functions, Eeckhoudt et al.’s (2009) result for the combination of ‘bad’ and ‘good’. The decision-maker prefers to get some of the ‘good’ and some of the ‘bad’ to taking a chance on all the ‘good’ or all the ‘bad’ where ‘bad’ is defined via (N,M)-increasing concave order. We generalize the concept of bivariate risk aversion introduced by Richard (1975) to higher orders. Importantly, in the bivariate framework, preference for the lottery [(X,T);(Y,Z)] to the lottery [(X,Z);(Y,T)] when (X,Z) dominates (Y,T) via (N,M)-increasing concave order allows us to assert bivariate risk apportionment of order (N,M) and to extend the concept of risk apportionment defined by Eeckhoudt and Schlesinger (2006).","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114181891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Much Should We Trust Linear Instrumental Variables Estimators? An Application to Family Size and Children's Education","authors":"M. Mogstad, Matthew Wiswall","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1506314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1506314","url":null,"abstract":"Many empirical studies specify outcomes as a linear function of endogenous regressors when conducting instrumental variable (IV) estimation. We show that tests for treatment effects, selection bias, and treatment effect heterogeneity are biased if the true relationship is non-linear. These results motivate a re-examination of recent evidence suggesting no causal effect of family size on children's education. Following common practice, a linear IV estimator has been used, assuming constant marginal effects of additional children across family sizes. We find that the conclusion of no effect of family size is an artifact of the linear specification, which masks substantial marginal family size effects.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132821468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hasan Fauzi, M. Hussain, A. Abdul Rahman, Adnan A. Priyanto
{"title":"Corporate Social Performance of Indonesian State-Owned and Private Companies","authors":"Hasan Fauzi, M. Hussain, A. Abdul Rahman, Adnan A. Priyanto","doi":"10.1142/9789812791788_0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812791788_0023","url":null,"abstract":"The objectives of this study are to analyze the difference of corporate social performance between State-owned and private companies in Indonesia, and also to analyze the correlation between the corporate social performance (CSP) and the corporate financial performance by using company size, and institutional ownership as control variables. The population of this study is Indonesian state owned and private companies in the year of 2001-2004. Purposive sampling was used in this study, and final samples are 461 companies. The CSP or CSR (Corporate social responsibility) score is measured by content analysis of corporate annual report using seven item developed by Michael Research Jantzi Research Associate, Inc. The data is tested by independent t-test to determine the mean difference and by using partial correlation test to know the correlation between the corporate social performance and financial performance. The results of this study are that there is no significant difference mean of corporate social performance between state-owned and private owned companies in Indonesia. In addition, the correlation test indicates that there is no association between corporation social performance and financial performance both in SOCs and POCs.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123418506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Male and Female Labour Force Participation: The Role of Dynamic Adjustments to Changes in Labour Demand, Government Policies and Autonomous Trends","authors":"M. Vendrik, F. Cörvers","doi":"10.26481/umamet.2009036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26481/umamet.2009036","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the extent and speed of dynamic adjustment of labour supply to changes in labour demand, government policies and autonomous trends. We estimate error-correction models (ECMs) for male and female participation rates in the Netherlands between 1969 and 2004. The results show significant short and long-run effects of labour demand as well as a negative autonomous trend for male participation. In contrast, we find no significant long-run labour-demand effects and a very strong positive autonomous trend for female participation. Including female and male participation as additional explanatory variables in the male and female ECMs, respectively, reveals significant substitution effects between female and male participation. For male participation the substitution effects from female participation account for the negative trend in the basic ECM, while for female participation the substitution effects from male participation counterbalance labour demand effects that are now significant. In addition, we find very significant breakpoints in male and female participation at 1994, which indicate the effects of exogenous participation-promoting policies by the Dutch governments after 1994. The adjustments of the participation rates to changes in labour demand, government policies and autonomous trends are moderately fast.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126701295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Cappelen, Astri Drange Hole, Erik Ø. Sørensen, Bertil Tungodden
{"title":"Modeling Individual Choices in Experiments: Reply to Conte and Moffatt","authors":"A. Cappelen, Astri Drange Hole, Erik Ø. Sørensen, Bertil Tungodden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1554812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1554812","url":null,"abstract":"In a comment to Cappelen, Hole, S. Sorensen, and Tungodden (2007b), Conte and Moffatt (2009) challenge our use of a random utility model when studying individual choices in a fairness experiment. They propose an alternative approach, what we call the random behavioral model, and they show that the choice of modeling strategy has profound implications for our understanding of the observed behavior. In this note, we discuss how the two approaches differ, and we show that the random behavioral model of Conte and Moffatt (2009) fails to fit the data from our fairness experiment.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125542176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Idalberto José das Neves Júnior, Simone Araújo do Carmo, Carlos Daniel Schneider Pereira
{"title":"Operating Cash Flow and Added Value: A Study of the Correlation between Liquidity and Distribution of Added Value in the Brazilian Textile Sector","authors":"Idalberto José das Neves Júnior, Simone Araújo do Carmo, Carlos Daniel Schneider Pereira","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1634422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1634422","url":null,"abstract":"The operating cash flow (FCO) is the financial results produced by the assets directly identified with the activity of the company. It is obtained in the Statement of Cash Flows in the first group of operations: operating activities. Through this, one can calculate a liquidity ratio than that obtained with elements of the Balance Sheet. In this context, this study brings the discussion to the liquidity of companies, perceived from liquidity indicators calculated by the Operating Cash Flow, is related to the distribution of added value demonstrated by the DVA. Thus, the objective was to explore the results of the correlation between the indicator Operating Cash Flow and Value Added in the Brazilian textile sector. For this, we used the statements of 18 companies with shares on the Bovespa Brazilian textile sector in software development for Economatica, and were also collected the values of EBITDA, as an estimate of the FCO. After collecting data, indicators were calculated and subsequently performed correlation and regression in SPSS, totaling 720 data used. By analyzing the results, we concluded that liquidity has no significant influence on the distribution of wealth.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131754300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Existence of Equilibrium in Common Agency Games with Adverse Selection","authors":"Guilherme Carmona, J. Fajardo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.921806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.921806","url":null,"abstract":"We establish the existence of subgame perfect equilibria in general menu games, known to be sufficient to analyze common agency problems. Our main result states that every menu game satisfying enough continuity properties has a subgame perfect equilibrium. Despite the continuity assumptions that we make, discontinuities naturally arise due to the absence, in general, of continuous optimal choices for the agent. Our approach, then, is based on (and generalizes) the existence theorem of [Simon, L., Zame, W., 1990. Discontinuous games and endogenous sharing rules. Econometrica 58 (4), 861-872] designed for discontinuous games.","PeriodicalId":207453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127653595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}