Мировая политика最新文献

{"title":"Problems of Implementing the EU's Inter-regional Policy in the Asian Direction","authors":"A. Uryupina","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.4.38967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.4.38967","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Interregionalism occupies an important place in the foreign policy of the European Union, because through it the EU seeks to expand its presence in various regions of the world and export its norms, views and values. The promising, rapidly developing Asian region is no exception. This article is devoted to the study of the process of building an inter–regional policy by the European Union in the Asian direction, namely with the largest regional association in the region - the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors hindering the building of effective cooperation between the regions, as well as the creation of a free trade zone (FTA). The main conclusion of this study is that there are a number of obstacles to the creation of the EU-ASEAN intercontinental free trade area, which significantly affect the relations between regional groupings. Firstly, it is the practice of concluding bilateral agreements, used as a springboard for the future FTA. Bilateral agreements have already been successfully signed with individual countries, namely Singapore and Vietnam, but contradictions of both an economic and political nature arise with other ASEAN member countries. Secondly, the existing competition with China and the United States for influence in the region hinders the EU's attempts to pursue its inter-regional policy.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124803249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic Risks Hindering Nuclear War Between China and the United States","authors":"K. Strigunov","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.4.39024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.4.39024","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The object of the study is a hypothetical nuclear war between China and the United States. The subject of the study is the strategic risks preventing a nuclear war between China and the United States. The aim of the study is to determine the strategic risks that prevent the initiation of a nuclear war between China and the United States at the stage of making a decision to launch a first nuclear strike. Methods and methodology. The study was carried out within the framework of neorealism. A systematic approach was used as well as the methodology of classical military-political studies. Among the methods used were such general scientific methods as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction. The method of studying documents and the factorial approach were also used. The article analyzes the strategic risks that prevent the unleashing of a nuclear war between powers with the world's largest economies in the context of intensive globalization.      The author concludes that the strategic risks of nuclear war outweigh the benefits of it especially in the context of intense globalization. The expectation of a nuclear strike and the mechanism for making a decision about it, in the author's opinion, are one of the most important factors in the low probability of actors to resort to nuclear war as a means of resolving contradictions. At the same time the misinterpretation of damage and the difference in understanding the scale of a nuclear strike also hinders a nuclear war. The novelty of this research. The issue of a hypothetical nuclear war between China and the United States is considered for the first time in scenarios of limited and massive nuclear weapons, simultaneously taking into account the factors of intensive globalization; the «fog of war» effect, which plays an extremely important role; the risk of a distorted interpretation by the attacked of the scale of nuclear strikes; different understanding by the attacker and the attacked of what is considered a limited strike and the risk of a disproportionate response; erasing the boundary between limited and massive nuclear strike in the context of intensive globalization and reducing the level of unacceptable damage; third party factors, incl. state or non-state actors capable of provoking a nuclear escalation.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133505028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MCC as a Tool of American Influence on Developing Countries","authors":"Qun Yin","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.4.39171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.4.39171","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In February 2022 there were massive demonstrations in Nepal against the $500 million \"free\" aid agreement between the country and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The protests subsided, and the Nepalese parliament overwhelmingly approved the agreement. In July 2022, civil unrest broke out in Sri Lanka. A member of parliament shot himself, the prime minister's ancestral home was burned down, the defense ministry was forced to issue a \"shoot-to-kill\" order against protesters, and the president promised not to sign the MCC. In this article, the author explores the MCC as an instrument of American influence in developing countries, using Sri Lanka and Nepal as examples. Particular attention is given to specific mechanisms of economic pressure on developing countries to achieve political results. This article introduces the MCC organization and, by describing events in Nepal and Sri Lanka, reveals the role that the MCC plays in the process of American intervention in the Third World. The study analyzes statistics that illustrate the economic impact of the U.S. on developing countries. The author draws conclusions about the impact of U.S. activities through the MCC on the regional environment. There are many ways in which the United States intervenes in regional affairs. The MCC is only one of them, but it is particularly significant. Through it, the U.S. establishes privileged conditions for itself in negotiations with developing countries to achieve results that could not be obtained without economic pressure.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127601697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Establishment of a Positive Bilateral Interaction Model in the Russia-Japan Dialogue after the Cold War: Analysis of the 1990’s Negotiations Tactics","authors":"M. Malashevskaya","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.36933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.36933","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The paper deals with the Russian-Japanese interests-oriented model of cooperation in the 1990s within the framework of the diplomatic tactics and mechanisms introduced into the bilateral negotiations. In this research, the application of various negotiation instruments applied by the Japanese diplomacy toward the USSR and the Russian Federation in the late 1980s–1990s is analyzed to demonstrate the process of establishing cooperation, despite territorial disagreements. According to the specific historical and political environment, application of the negotiation methods researched in this paper was not allowed before the middle 1980s, and the introduction of a wide range of such tactics within the 1990s is becoming an argument in favor of that point of view that there was welcomed a partnership model between Japan and the Russian Federation. “No-necktie meetings”, leader talks, informal negotiations, “face-to-face diplomacy” applied from the mid-1990s led to the introduction of a positive model of interaction compared to the tactics used by Japan in the early 1990s. The personal contribution of politicians and diplomats to create the foundation for multidimensional cooperation between Russia and Japan was essential. Japanese diplomats Tamba Minoru, Edamura Sumio, Togo Kazuhiko, politicians Nakayama Taro, Hashimoto Ryutaro, Obuchi Keizo, and Mori Yoshiro left a noticeable mark in the processes considered in our research, the works published by them became a valuable source for the analysis of the considered events.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124704845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analytical Centers as an Element of BRICS \"Soft Power\" in Latin America","authors":"Liudmila L. Kleshchenko","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.38697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.38697","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The subject of this study is the policy of \"soft power\" of the BRICS in Latin America, including its tool such as analytical centers. The purpose of the study is to determine the specifics of the activities of BRICS analytical centers in the studied region and their political functions. The relevance of the topic is due to the growing importance of multilateral institutions in the modern world, which necessitates the study of their activities and mechanisms of influence, including the policy of \"soft power\". The prospects for the expansion of the BRICS due to the entry of new participants depend, among other things, on the image of this institution, which serves as an additional factor in the relevance of studying the policy of \"soft power\" of the BRICS and its results. Research method: document analysis. As a result of the study, it was found that an important impetus for the creation of the BRICS analytical center in Brazil is the diversity of the BRICS countries, which necessitates their mutual study. The activity of the BRICS analytical center is aimed at studying ways to solve global problems, studying the BRICS countries, the countries of the Global South and their interaction. In addition to research, the Center sees as a task the exchange of information between the research structures of the BRICS countries, the promotion of the BRICS agenda. The author comes to the conclusion that the policy of \"soft power\" of the BRICS in Latin America is at the stage of formation. One of its elements is the activity of the BRICS Research and Development Center, which performs research, organizational and informational functions.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123697991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Knight's Move: Brazil's future in BRICS+","authors":"Alisa Andreevna Kazelko","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.38508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.38508","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The purpose of the study is to predict and evaluate the scale and effectiveness of the key political and economic instruments of the largest Latin American country – Brazil – when expanding the membership of the BRICS integration association member states. In the context of the growing confrontation provoked by the hostile rhetoric of the West, the configuration of the world order is undergoing an unprecedented transformation: the developed world largely acts as a catch-up to developing countries, as evidenced by the potential of BRICS+. The article identifies and analyzes three constants of the \"tropical giant\" foreign policy in BRICS+: cooperation with Moscow, recognition of the need to expand the membership of the association, as well as the consensus of local political elites regarding the development of BRICS+ according to the scenario of \"integration of integrations\". Along with the similarities in the attitudes of Brazil's foreign policy, the association also emphasizes the dichotomy in the approaches of the current and potential administrations: governments lobby for different agendas, take opposite positions on the future of BRICS+, and also focus on promoting bilateral relations with two different countries: in one case, with China, in the other, with India. Considering the future of BRICS+ from the economic point of view, the author pays special attention to the dilemma of developing criteria for those wishing to join the association and proposes the concept of \"three barriers\": the establishment of low, medium or high barriers to entry into the BRICS market. In conclusion, the article analyzes the meaning of the title of the work \"knight's move\": the author comes to the conclusion that Brazil will emerge victorious from any political and economic scenario described in the article. Finally, special attention is paid to the harsh historical lessons that the \"tropical giant\" has learned: having destroyed the two-hundred-year-old web of political and debt dependence on its northern neighbor, Brazil should become the country that will make the decisive move and complete the chess game against the West.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114274914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The UN peacekeeping system: from theory to practice","authors":"A. Torosian","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.38409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.38409","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article examines the key problems of the evolution and functioning of United Nations peacekeeping in the post-bipolar period. On the example of peacekeeping missions after 1990 and key documents in the field of peacekeeping operations, an assessment is given of the challenges facing the UN both at the stage of defining the mandate of operations and in the field of their financing. Based on the position of the United States of America regarding the payment of contributions to the UN budget, the imperfection of the mechanisms for financing UN peacekeeping is demonstrated and the negative consequences for the system of peacekeeping operations as a whole are highlighted. Today, UN peacekeeping is becoming multifunctional, with the main focus gradually shifting to the problems of conflict prevention and peace-building. At the same time, such a change of priorities exposes the problems inherent in the very architecture of UN peacekeeping, primarily related to the definition of the mandate and politicization of the activities of the Secretariat and the financing of missions. In connection with the departure from the traditional function of maintaining the ceasefire, costs are increasing, and non-payment by member countries, such as the United States, of contributions to the budget of operations entails a decrease in their effectiveness. It seems to us that the solution to the above—mentioned problems lies in the continuation of the UN reform process, especially in the field of approving the military part of the mandate and creating a single budget of the OPM integrated into the general UN budget. If there is the political will of the member countries, this process seems to us quite feasible and follows in line with the reform of the UN peacekeeping of the last thirty years.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123672547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transatlantic cooperation in the assessments of Western experts: prospects for the \"Europeanization\" of the collective security system","authors":"Sergei Valer'evich Krivov, T. Baranova","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.37038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.37038","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The subject of the study is expert and analytical assessments of the state, contradictions and prospects of the transatlantic partnership as an essential component of the international security system. The \"turn to the East\" proclaimed by Barack Obama, the transition to the principles of unilateralism of the Trump administration, and finally, the creation of AUKUS, with an obvious shift of strategic priorities to the Indo-Pacific region, raised a number of conceptual issues for the expert community on both sides of the Atlantic. The authors consider the assessments of the prospects and role of European countries in the transatlantic security system carried out by Western experts and analytical centers both within the framework of NATO institutions and in the context of the European Union's defense initiatives based on the method of expert assessments. For the first time, the paper attempts a comprehensive comparative analysis of the assessments by the Western expert community of the state and prospects of transatlantic cooperation. Particular attention is paid to the possibility of productive cooperation between the EU and NATO in the field of distribution of functional powers. It is concluded that, despite certain positive developments, at present the issue of cooperation between the two key links of the Western security system cannot be considered resolved. The paper uses descriptive and structural-functional research methods. Special emphasis is also placed on comparative analysis when considering expert assessments of various \"think tanks\" on both sides of the Atlantic. \u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"29 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133424733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Energy Factor of Modern Geopolitics: an attempt at a cognitive Approach","authors":"Sergey Valer'evich Starkin, Elena Sergeevna Pripisnova, Sergei Valer'evich Krivov","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.37119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.3.37119","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Energy resources are becoming an increasingly politicized commodity, which at the same time retains special technical and economic characteristics, which complicates the work of the foreign policy leadership. Using a cognitive approach to foreign policy analysis, the authors conduct a study of the relationship between energy and foreign policy through the prism of different cognitive structures used by subjects to assess the landscape of the world energy. On this conceptual basis, the authors explore the evolution of the relationship between energy and foreign policy: how much energy is a useful tool of foreign policy, and, conversely, how deeply the goals of energy policy are embedded in foreign policy and affect the sphere of energy security. The main results of this study should be considered the conclusion of the authors that in order to distinguish energy as a foreign policy area, it is useful to distinguish between short-term and long-term energy vulnerability. The degree of long–term vulnerability is determined by the availability of real alternatives - the ability to diversify energy routes and sources. Thus, energy security is the dominant, but not the only factor determining energy as an area of foreign policy. The problem of energy sustainability is penetrating deeper into the world foreign policy agenda, since it is related to energy independence. Thus, depending on the influence of environmental beliefs on political, economic and social structures, energy sustainability can affect energy needs, energy imports, and hence energy independence. In addition, discussing the importance of energy sustainability, first of all it is necessary to focus on the problem of security, since energy sustainability is associated with the influence of internal resource consumption on the level of energy independence, and energy security focuses on the influence of external factors on ensuring sufficient energy supplies, and hence on energy independence. \u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115937254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Western Sahara: deep differences over conflict settlement","authors":"Rodolphe Seabstien Pierre Cottier, Maruan Maiuet","doi":"10.25136/2409-8671.2022.2.37998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-8671.2022.2.37998","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The conflict in Western Sahara has been going on for thirty-five years, and neither side has won. The parties to the conflict are in an all-or-nothing logic regarding the outcome of this conflict: Morocco preaches the autonomy of the Sahara as the part of the kingdom, and the Algerians and Saharans from the Frente Polisario waives the demands for autonomy. However, in the absence of a clear victory of one of the participants, the political solution need necessarily include a compromise reflecting the balance of power. In an effort to pacify and develop a region that could become a haven for Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Washington, Paris and Madrid could support the new Representative of the Secretary-General in finding a solution that could satisfy all parties, giving this result aspects of compromise. Nevertheless, they will have to take into account both the Saharans as a whole and the geostrategic balance of the region. This article discusses the problems of decolonization and interethnic conflicts. This conflict concentrates the opposition of several geopolitical blocs in one place. On the one hand, he opposes two regional powers: Morocco and Algeria. On the other hand, it opposes two blocs consisting of Morocco and Western countries, against Algeria, a traditional ally of Russia, and large African countries such as Nigeria. This article highlights the inadequacy of international organizations. The issue of stabilizing the situation in Western Sahara is even more important today in the context of Islamic terrorism in the Sahel. Terrorism is spreading in economically and politically unstable countries. The question of the independence of Western Sahara or its integration as an autonomous territory within Morocco must be resolved before terrorism intervenes in Sahari affairs.\u0000","PeriodicalId":207032,"journal":{"name":"Мировая политика","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121488662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}