Progress in Oceanography最新文献

{"title":"Modulation of the internal wave regime over a tropical seamount ecosystem by basin-scale oceanographic processes","authors":"E. Robinson,&nbsp;P. Hosegood,&nbsp;A. Bolton","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Shallow seamounts are becoming increasingly recognised as key habitats for conservation due to their role as biological refuges, particularly throughout oligotrophic oceans. Traditionally, Taylor caps have been invoked as the mechanism driving biomass aggregation over seamounts but emerging evidence based on higher resolution measurements highlights the importance of internal waves (IW) to the local ecosystem. These waves can flush the benthic habitat with cool water from depth and impact on nutrient supply over short time scales through turbulent mixing that may also influence fish behaviour. They are dependent on the regional stratification, however, and thus influenced by planetary-scale variability in oceanographic conditions. We present here detailed observations of the internal wave regime over a shallow seamount, called Sandes, in the central Indian Ocean throughout different phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that modulated the regional stratification. A deep thermocline, caused by the 2019 IOD event precluded internal wave activity over the summit, whereas a thermocline collocated with the summit during 2020 when the IOD reversed polarity resulted in a 30 m amplitude internal tide signal (t ∼ 12.5 h). A shallow thermocline, observed during 2022, resulted in propagation of IWs over the summit with less visible internal tide. Harmonic analysis shows the presence of high frequency waves (t ∼ 15 min) on both flanks of the seamount during 2020 &amp; 2022, which are likely a result of local shear instability, whereas 2019 shows an asymmetric response, potentially due to the strong background current and suppression of the thermocline beneath the depth of the summit. The potential importance of the waves over the summit to the local ecosystem may be attributed to the elevated turbulence measured at the thermocline during internal wave propagation, with ε &gt; 10^-5 W kg-1 routinely observed. Our results highlight the ability of thermocline depth to act as a gating condition for internal wave evolution over the summit. These results show that, whilst the water column exhibits variability at short spatiotemporal scales compared to the frequently cited Taylor cap dynamics, it is also regulated by the wider basin scale processes. Thus, a more integrated approach is needed when assessing these dynamic and environmentally critical habitats to include the effects of physical oceanographic controls across multiple spatiotemporal scales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 103323"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001290/pdfft?md5=69c0ff806a3b9722cc417038334d4c91&pid=1-s2.0-S0079661124001290-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141964570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water mass evolution and general circulation of Baffin Bay: Observations from two shipboard surveys in 2021","authors":"Jie Huang ,&nbsp;Robert S. Pickart ,&nbsp;Frank Bahr ,&nbsp;Leah T. McRaven ,&nbsp;Jean-Éric Tremblay ,&nbsp;Christine Michel ,&nbsp;Emil Jeansson ,&nbsp;Ben Kopec ,&nbsp;Jeffrey M. Welker ,&nbsp;Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Baffin Bay is an Arctic marginal sea connected to the North Atlantic via Davis Strait and the Labrador Sea. While the exchange of heat and freshwater through Davis Strait is known to strongly influence the subpolar North Atlantic, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the circulation and water mass distribution and transformation throughout Baffin Bay, in part due to limited direct velocity observations. In this study, high-resolution hydrographic, nutrient, oxygen isotope, and velocity data from two shipboard surveys in late-summer to early-fall 2021 are used to address these gaps. During the time period of observation, Baffin Bay was dominated by cold, fresh, nitrate-depleted Polar Water (PW) in the upper 300 m, with the coldest and freshest PW distributed along the western shelf and slope adjacent to Baffin Island. Only a small amount of warm and salty Atlantic-origin water was measured entering the southeastern bay at depth, which is diluted rapidly when passing through Davis Strait. Pacific-origin freshwater was dominant in the upper 200 m on the western side, with relatively small amounts of meteoric water on both sides of the bay. The circulation in Baffin Bay was generally cyclonic, consisting of a strong, surface-intensified western boundary current and a slower, weakly baroclinic eastern boundary current. Much of the eastern boundary current bifurcated to the west at the northern end of the Labrador Sea, and, as the remaining flow progressed through Davis Strait, it transitioned from surface-intensified to bottom-intensified. Basin-scale recirculation of the PW was documented using the shipboard data, which was also evident in the velocity field of an ocean reanalysis product for the same time period. Examination of the reanalysis fields from 1993 to 2021 indicates that the circulation in Baffin Bay was anomalously cyclonic during summer/fall 2021. Such basin-scale circulation anomalies can arise due to both the local wind stress curl pattern and remote wind forcing associated with the Arctic Oscillation index.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 103322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State, variability, and trophic interactions in the Atlantic gateway to the Arctic","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103276","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 103276"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966112400082X/pdfft?md5=4988e5b28f0b417a7d6ef674629a909c&pid=1-s2.0-S007966112400082X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141023542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonality in phytoplankton communities and production in three Arctic fjords across a climate gradient","authors":"Cheshtaa Chitkara ,&nbsp;Thomas Juul-Pedersen ,&nbsp;Diana Krawczyk ,&nbsp;Janne E. Søreide ,&nbsp;Anna Vader ,&nbsp;Rolf Gradinger ,&nbsp;Mie HS Winding ,&nbsp;Tobias R Vonnahme","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Phytoplankton communities and production in Arctic fjords undergo strong seasonal variations. Phytoplankton blooms are periods with high primary production, leading to elevated algal biomass fueling higher trophic levels. Blooms are typically driven bottom-up by light and nutrient availability but may also be top-down controlled by grazing. While phytoplankton spring blooms are common across all Arctic systems, summer and autumn blooms and their drivers are less predictable. Here we compare the long-term (≥4 years) bloom phenology and protist community composition in three Arctic fjords: Nuup Kangerlua in western Greenland, Ramfjorden in northern Norway, and Adventfjorden in western Svalbard. While Nuup Kangerlua is impacted by tidewater glaciers, Ramfjorden and Adventfjorden are impacted by river-runoff. We discuss and contrast the presence and predictability of spring, summer, and autumn blooms in these fjords and the main physical, chemical, and biological drivers. Spring blooms occurred in all three fjords in April/May as soon as sufficient sunlight was available and typically terminated when nutrients were depleted. Chain-forming diatoms together with the haptophyte <em>Phaeocystis pouchetii</em> were key spring bloom taxa in all three fjords. Summer blooms were found in Nuup Kangerlua and Ramfjorden but were not common in Adventfjorden. In Nuup Kangerlua nutrient supply via subglacial upwelling was the key driver of a diatom-dominated summer bloom. This summer bloom extended far into autumn with strong winds resupplying nutrients to the surface later in the season. In Ramfjorden runoff from a vegetated catchment provided organic nutrients for a flagellate-dominated summer bloom in 2019. A late autumn bloom dominated by S<em>keletonema spp</em>. and other chain-forming diatoms was present after nutrients were resupplied by wind mixing. In Adventfjorden, we observed only minor summer blooms in 2 of the 8 years, while autumn blooms were never observed. With global warming, we suggest that summer blooms will be negatively impacted in fjords where tidewater glaciers retreat and become land terminating. In fjords with rich vegetated catchments, harmful algal blooms may occur more frequently as summers and autumns become warmer and wetter. However, for fjords in high-Arctic latitudes (&gt;78 N), the day length will continue to restrict the potential for autumn blooms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"227 ","pages":"Article 103317"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966112400123X/pdfft?md5=2a70f7b72ee600a4bf07d1f7bb4585f6&pid=1-s2.0-S007966112400123X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141845042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bioregionalization of the subarctic Pacific based on phytoplankton phenology and composition","authors":"Marta Konik ,&nbsp;M. Angelica Peña ,&nbsp;Toru Hirawake ,&nbsp;Brian P.V. Hunt ,&nbsp;Perumthuruthil Suseelan Vishnu ,&nbsp;Lisa B. Eisner ,&nbsp;Astrid Bracher ,&nbsp;Hongyan Xi ,&nbsp;Christian Marchese ,&nbsp;Maycira Costa","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The subarctic Pacific is generally perceived as relatively homogeneous since the North Pacific Subpolar Gyre dominates the water circulation in the area. However, previous research showed significant spatial differences in phytoplankton abundance and community structure. This study aimed to identify regions associated with distinct phytoplankton phenology and composition to comprehensively describe the main phytoplankton variability patterns across the subarctic Pacific. To this end, satellite GlobColour time series observations and an extensive in situ phytoplankton pigment dataset were used in the analysis. Five bioregions were identified, based on the Self-Organized Mapping technique, using a greater than 20-year satellite data series. The bioregions in the open Pacific waters were dominated by green algae, haptophytes, and pelagophytes and were divided into the areas affected by the North Pacific Transition Zone and beyond. The other bioregions were defined around the Pacific basin margins where the diatom contribution was generally higher, with a particular distinction of waters surrounding the Kuril and the Aleutian Islands. Our bioregion designations allow for future evaluation of the processes controlling the physical and biological dynamics within each bioregion, which has direct implications for foraging conditions available to higher trophic levels, including potential food resource competition.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 103315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001216/pdfft?md5=471a5d5b0588f01b800e459506ce2b93&pid=1-s2.0-S0079661124001216-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"At the base of deep-sea food webs: Assemblage and trophic structure of suprabenthos and zooplankton in submarine canyons","authors":"Paula Masiá ,&nbsp;Julian Sozio ,&nbsp;Zaira Da Ros ,&nbsp;Emanuela Fanelli","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Submarine canyons act as hotspots of biodiversity, hosting vulnerable marine ecosystems, and playing a fundamental role in bridging coastal zones with deeper areas. Here, we investigated the suprabenthic and Deep Scattering Layer (DSL) zooplankton fauna, that play a key role in deep-sea food webs, as main resources for both mobile and sessile megafauna, in two submarine canyons (Squillace and Amendolara) of the Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean Sea). Our results highlighted different taxonomic and functional diversity between the two adjacent canyons: (<em>i</em>) biomass and abundance of suprabenthos followed an opposite trend in the two canyons, increasing both with depth in Amendolara (higher abundance and biomass in the lower part of the canyon), and decreasing with depth in Squillace (greater in the head of the canyon); (<em>ii</em>) DSL zooplankton abundance and biomass followed a spatial distribution, decreasing with increasing distance from the coast for both canyons (i.e. lower offshore than at the head of the canyon). Food-web structure investigated by means of stable isotope analysis of <em>δ</em>¹³C and <em>δ</em>¹⁵N showed a more diverse trophic niche for suprabenthos than for zooplankton. Furthermore, possible feeding modes of species with unknown feeding behaviour have been proposed. The results of the current article highlight the different ecological processes occurring within each canyon. Understanding the spatial variations of communities inhabiting submarine canyons, especially those at the base of deep-sea food webs which can act as driver of megafaunal communities (both sessile and mobile-commercial species), is essential to focalise future conservation efforts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 103318"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001241/pdfft?md5=f6e9fddc8d8bacaab2b620e26c8b0668&pid=1-s2.0-S0079661124001241-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141840941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Constraining the twilight zone remineralization in the South China Sea basin: Insights from the multi-method intercomparison","authors":"Chao Xu ,&nbsp;Mingwang Xiang ,&nbsp;Bingzhang Chen ,&nbsp;Yibin Huang ,&nbsp;Guoqiang Qiu ,&nbsp;Yuchen Zhang ,&nbsp;Haili Wang ,&nbsp;Bangqin Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The twilight zone remineralization (TZR) consumes over 70% of organic carbon exported from the sunlit ocean, significantly affecting oceanic carbon sequestration and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Despite the well-established importance, the quantification of TZR remains challenging, as reflected by conspicuous methodological discrepancy and the unsolved imbalance between carbon supply from the upper layer and demand at depth. Here we combined three independent approaches, including biogeochemical profiling floats (BGC-float) observation, <em>in vivo</em> reduction of the tetrazolium salt by the cellular electron transport system (<em>in vivo</em> INT), and the synthesis of prokaryotic respiration (PR) determined by radiolabeled leucine incorporation and zooplankton respiration (ZR) empirically estimated from the biomass (PR + ZR), to investigate the TZR in the South China Sea basin. Our results show that the BGC-float and PR + ZR approaches gave more consistent results, with the respective values of 5.1 ± 0.5 and 6.4 ± 3.0 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹. However, <em>in vivo</em> INT approach yielded a TZR nearly an order of magnitude higher at 30.0 ± 6.1 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹. To further reconcile methodological discrepancies, we estimated the possible range of carbon supply by integrating comprehensive carbon sources, including sinking particles, dissolved organic carbon input, lateral transport, dark carbon fixation, and active carbon transport by zooplankton migration. After considering multiple carbon sources, we successfully balanced the carbon demand as indicated by BGC-float and PR + ZR approaches. Our intercomparison exercise suggests a potential overestimation of TZR by the <em>in vivo</em> INT approach, and also highlights the importance of integrating multiple carbon sources in closing the twilight zone carbon budget.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 103316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141846245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From nutrients to fish: Impacts of mesoscale processes in a global CESM-FEISTY eddying ocean model framework","authors":"Kristen M. Krumhardt ,&nbsp;Matthew C. Long ,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik ,&nbsp;Michael Levy ,&nbsp;Frederic S. Castruccio ,&nbsp;Keith Lindsay ,&nbsp;Lev Romashkov ,&nbsp;Anna-Lena Deppenmeier ,&nbsp;Rémy Denéchère ,&nbsp;Zhuomin Chen ,&nbsp;Laura Landrum ,&nbsp;Gokhan Danabasoglu ,&nbsp;Ping Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The ocean sustains ecosystems that are essential for human livelihood and habitability of the planet. The ocean holds an enormous amount of carbon, and serves as a critical source of nutrition for human societies worldwide. Climate variability and change impact marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems. Thus, having state-of-the-art simulations of the ocean, which include marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems, is critical for understanding the role of climate variability and change on the ocean biosphere. Here we present a novel global eddy-resolving (0.1° horizontal resolution) simulation of the ocean and sea ice, including ocean biogeochemistry, performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The simulation is forced by the atmospheric dataset based on the Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-55) product over the 1958–2021 period. We present a novel configuration of the CESM marine ecosystem model in this simulation which includes two zooplankton classes: microzooplankton and mesozooplankton. This novel planktonic food web structure facilitates “offline” coupling with the Fisheries Size and Functional Type (FEISTY) model. FEISTY is a size- and trait-based model of fish functional types contributing to fisheries. We present an evaluation of the ocean biogeochemistry, marine ecosystem (including fish types), and sea ice in this high resolution simulation compared to available observations and a corresponding low resolution (nominal 1°) simulation. Our analysis offers insights into environmental controls on trophodynamics within the ocean. We find that this high resolution simulation provides a realistic reconstruction of nutrients, oxygen, sea ice, plankton and fish distributions over the global ocean. On global and large regional scales the high resolution simulation is comparable to the standard 1° simulation, but on smaller scales, explicitly resolving the mesoscale dynamics is shown to be important for accurately capturing trophodynamic structuring, especially in coastal ecosystems. We show that fine-scale ocean features leave imprints on ocean ecosystems, from plankton to fish, from the tropics to polar regions. This simulation also offers insights on ocean acidification over the past 64 years, as well as how large-scale climate variations may impact upper trophic levels. The data generated by the simulations are publicly available and will be a fruitful community resource for a large variety of oceanographic science questions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"227 ","pages":"Article 103314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141839414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic population modeling of bacterioplankton community response to gelatinous marine zooplankton bloom collapse and its impact on marine nutrient balance","authors":"Filip Strniša ,&nbsp;Tinkara Tinta ,&nbsp;Gerhard J. Herndl ,&nbsp;Gregor Kosec","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The diverse microbial community in the ocean, encompassing various metabolic types, interacts with the wide array of compounds in the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool, thereby influencing the ocean’s biogeochemical state and, consequently, the global climate. Our understanding of the interactions between specific DOM constituents and microbial consortia remains limited, necessitating further refinement to achieve a mechanistic comprehension of the relationship between the DOM field and the microbial metabolic network. Attaining this level of understanding is crucial for accurately predicting the marine ecosystem’s response to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. To address this gap, we developed a bacterial population model based on the von Foerster equation. This model aims to describe the complex microbial-mediated degradation of gelatinous zooplankton (hereinafter ‘jellyfish’) detritus, as an important, but largely overlooked source of DOM in the ocean. By considering microbial growth and decay, as well as DOM uptake, and nutrient release, the model is able to describe the microbial community’s life cycle, and the biochemical transformations of the jellyfish-derived organic matter. We fitted the model to results of laboratory microcosm experiments conducted to simulate scenarios experienced by ambient microbiomes during decay of two different jellyfish species in the northern Adriatic Sea. By interpreting the fitted parameters, we highlight the differences in the microbial response to different jellyfish species, namely how these affect the microbial community composition and the release of nutrients. This model has been specifically designed for integration with ocean circulation models to create a comprehensive physical-biogeochemical ocean model. Such an extended model can be utilized for multi-scale simulations to assess the system’s response to jellyfish and jellyfish-derived organic matter. Given that jellyfish blooms may become more prevalent under future ocean scenarios, this modeling approach is essential for understanding their potential impact on marine ecosystems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"227 ","pages":"Article 103312"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001186/pdfft?md5=fef5384c0dcfb18661850914afd16299&pid=1-s2.0-S0079661124001186-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141851696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the multiple action pathways of projected climate change on the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) early life stages","authors":"Giancarlo M. Correa ,&nbsp;Thomas P. Hurst ,&nbsp;William T. Stockhausen ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Ciannelli ,&nbsp;Trond Kristiansen ,&nbsp;Darren J. Pilcher","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding how future ocean conditions will impact early life stages and population recruitment of fishes is critical for adapting fisheries communities to climate change. In this study, we incorporated projected changes in physical and biological ecosystem dynamics from an oceanographic model into a mechanistic individual-based model for larval and juvenile stages of the Pacific cod (<em>Gadus macrocephalus</em>) in the eastern Bering Sea. We particularly investigated the impacts of ocean currents, temperature, prey density, and pCO2 on the hatching success, growth, survival, and spatial distribution of this species during 2021–2100. We evaluated two CO₂ emission scenarios: RCP8.5 (high CO₂ emissions, low mitigation efforts) and RCP4.5 (medium CO₂ emissions and mitigation efforts). We found that the increase in temperature and decrease in prey density were the main drivers of faster growth rates and lower survival through increased starvation by the end of the century. Conversely, pCO₂ had negligible impacts, which suggests that this species might be resilient to ocean acidification. The largest effects were observed under the high CO₂ emission scenario, while the RCP4.5 projections displayed minimal impacts. We also identified an area with favourable conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea that will likely persist in future decades. This study provides relevant information on the future impacts of climate change on Pacific cod, and our results can be used to implement and inform climate-ready management for this important stock in Alaska.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"227 ","pages":"Article 103313"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141732391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}