Progress in Oceanography最新文献

{"title":"A predictive krill distribution model for Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera using scaled acoustic backscatter in the Northern California Current","authors":"S. Derville ,&nbsp;J.L. Fisher ,&nbsp;R.L. Kaplan ,&nbsp;K.S. Bernard ,&nbsp;E.M. Phillips ,&nbsp;L.G. Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Euphausiids (krill) are globally significant zooplankton prey for many commercially important or endangered predator species. In the productive upwelling system of the Northern California Current (NCC), two krill species, <em>Euphausia pacifica</em> and <em>Thysanoessa spinifera,</em> dominate the preyscape and constitute an important food resource for many seabirds, cetaceans, and fish. In this study, we use five years of hydroacoustic and net tow data collected in the NCC to develop integrative models predicting acoustic backscatter scaled for <em>E. pacifica</em> or <em>T. spinifera</em> separately. Boosted Regression Trees and Generalized Additive Models are applied in an original ensemble hurdle framework to predict krill presence and abundance from a diverse set of topographic and oceanographic predictors. Krill metrics had significant relationships with seabed depth, distance to submarine canyons, and variables indicative of dynamic ocean conditions (e.g., total deviance explained in acoustic data: 25 % in the presence-absence model &amp; 49 % in the abundance model). Predictions of krill abundance at 5 km resolution averaged by month indicate differential habitat preferences between the two species: <em>T. spinifera</em> was constrained to the continental shelf, around and inshore of the 200 m isobath, whereas <em>E. pacifica</em> was found in greater abundances just offshore of the 200 m isobath and into offshore water in lower abundances. <em>E. pacifica</em> was generally more abundant than <em>T. spinifera</em> (10:1.3 ratio). Both species increased in abundance in the spring and summer, followed by a rapid decline in the fall, and lowest abundances in the winter. These models can produce fine-scale spatial and year-round weekly predictions of <em>E. pacifica</em> and <em>T. spinifera</em> abundance in the NCC, which will provide essential knowledge and new spatial layers about critical ecosystem components to support research and management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103388"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Baseline matters: Challenges and implications of different marine heatwave baselines","authors":"Kathryn E. Smith ,&nbsp;Alex Sen Gupta ,&nbsp;Dillon Amaya ,&nbsp;Jessica A. Benthuysen ,&nbsp;Michael T. Burrows ,&nbsp;Antonietta Capotondi ,&nbsp;Karen Filbee-Dexter ,&nbsp;Thomas L. Frölicher ,&nbsp;Alistair J. Hobday ,&nbsp;Neil J. Holbrook ,&nbsp;Neil Malan ,&nbsp;Pippa J. Moore ,&nbsp;Eric C.J. Oliver ,&nbsp;Benjamin Richaud ,&nbsp;Julio Salcedo-Castro ,&nbsp;Dan A. Smale ,&nbsp;Mads Thomsen ,&nbsp;Thomas Wernberg","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103404","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103404","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine heatwaves (MHWs), prolonged periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, significantly impact global ecosystems. However, there is ongoing debate regarding the definition of these extreme events, which is crucial for effective research and communication among marine scientists, decision-makers, and the broader public. Fundamental to all MHW analyses is a clearly defined background oceanic climate – i.e., a temperature ‘baseline’ against which the MHW is defined. While a single approach to implementing a baseline may not be suitable for all MHW research applications, the choice of a baseline for analysing MHWs must be intentional as it affects research outcomes.</div><div>This perspective examines baseline choices and discusses their implications for marine organism and ecosystem risks, and their relevance in communicating MHW characteristics and metrics to stakeholders, policymakers, and the public. In particular we analyse five different baseline approaches for computing MHW statistics, assess their technical differences, and discuss their ecological implications. Different baselines suggest widely different trends in MHW characteristics in a warming world. This would, for example, imply differences in future risk, reflective of marine organisms with different adaptive potential, thereby affecting recommendations for management strategies. We also examine the consequences of different baseline choices on ease of implementation and communication with wider audiences. Our analyses highlight the need to clearly specify a chosen baseline in MHW studies, and to be mindful of its implications for MHW statistics, practical considerations, and interpretations concerning the adaptive capacities of marine organisms, ecosystems and human systems. The challenges and implications of different MHW baselines highlighted here have similar relevance in research and communication for other branches of climate extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103404"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the western North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre zonal currents in 2021 through single- and three-box inverse models","authors":"Daniel Santana-Toscano,&nbsp;M.Dolores Pérez-Hernández,&nbsp;Cristina Arumí-Planas,&nbsp;Alonso Hernández-Guerra","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The western North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre comprises the warm Gulf Stream (GS) and the cold Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), which are the main currents of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Hydrographic sections conducted at 66°W (A22) and 52°W (A20) in the western North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASG) have sampled these currents in 1997, 2003, 2012, and 2021. Both single- and three-box inverse models are used to compute mass, heat, and freshwater transport to the hydrographic data of 2021 with no significant differences between methodologies. This study reveals a substantial change in the GS mass transport at both 52°W and 66°W in spring 2021 compared to spring 2012 and summer 1997, but no changes compared to fall 2003. Conversely, the DWBC shows no significant modification between spring 2021 and previous cruises. Moreover, the North Brazil Current mass transport, which is sampled by the A20 section, presents the downstream weakening showcased previously. Heat and freshwater fluxes are not significantly different from zero, therefore the water volumes enclosed by the A20 and A22 sections do not reflect a net air-sea flux in 2021. Although the GS exhibits interdecadal variability, the lack of other changes over time in this area suggests a general stability in the environmental and forcing conditions. This study highlights the consistent mass transports of the main AMOC currents in the western NASG, particularly the GS and DWBC, emphasizing their stability and importance in broader climate and oceanographic processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103415"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143141160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning algorithm reveals surface deoxygenation in the Agulhas Current due to warming","authors":"T.B. Mashifane ,&nbsp;L. Braby ,&nbsp;M. Pikiso ,&nbsp;S. Sunnassee–Taukoor ,&nbsp;R.S. Rapolaki ,&nbsp;M.N. Ragoasha","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Agulhas Current is the strongest western boundary current (WBC) in the Southern Hemisphere with a significant impact on the global climate. Through the Agulhas leakage, it transports warm, saline waters into the South Atlantic Ocean. In recent years, a warming trend has been highlighted in the Agulhas Current, with possible implications for dissolved oxygen ([O₂]) due to the link between warming and reduced solubility – dynamics that remain relatively unknown in the region. To address this knowledge gap, we use the random forest regression algorithm to predict near–surface [O₂] from multiple predictors in the Agulhas Current, presenting the first analysis of these dynamics. The Agulhas–RFR algorithm predicts [O₂] exceptionally well, with permutation importance from the ensemble indicating that sea surface temperature (SST) is the highest–ranking predictor. Seasonal changes in solubility, wind, and productivity drive [O₂] and the [O₂] flux in the Agulhas Current. The seasonal [O₂] flux to the atmosphere reaches –1.84 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹ during the austral winter across the Agulhas Current. A significant decreasing [O₂] trend of up to –7 µmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹, attributed to warming, is revealed for the period from 2000 to 2023. Strengthening westerlies and cooling contribute to [O₂] drawdown towards the Indian Ocean gyre. The Agulhas–RFR algorithm reveals a declining [O₂] trend of –2.29 ± 0.61 µmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹ across the Agulhas Current for the study period, representing a 1.4% deoxygenation rate, which is slightly higher than global estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103407"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142821059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tropical cyclones enhance net CO2 sink in the Bay of Bengal","authors":"V.V.S.S. Sarma ,&nbsp;B. Sridevi ,&nbsp;T.M. Balakrishnan Nair ,&nbsp;Aneesh A. Lotliker ,&nbsp;Sanjiba K. Baliarsingh ,&nbsp;E.P.R. Rao","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103422","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103422","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclones modify the upper ocean due to significant mixing associated with increased winds that bring CO₂ and nutrient-rich subsurface waters to the surface, altering CO₂ flux and biological production. In the region where considerable river discharge occurs with strong stratification, it is hypothesized that tropical cyclones may increase the sink of CO₂ into the ocean and vice versa in the region of weak stratification. The balance between CO₂ removal through the exchange at the air–water interface and biological production on a shorter time scale may vary with the intensity of the cyclone. To examine this, severe cyclone <em>Michaung</em> and very severe cyclone <em>Hudhud</em> was studied to understand the modifications in CO₂ fluxes and net primary production (NPP) in the Bay of Bengal. Both these cyclones occurred in the Bay of Bengal during post monsoon season (October to December) and crossed the land on the east coast of India. The barrier layer thickness was &gt; 40 m in the northern and &lt; 10 m in the southern Bay, resulting in spatial variability in the mixing of the upper ocean. High windspeed associated with cyclones may not rupture the stratification in the northern Bay. This led to an increase in a sink of CO₂ from the atmosphere in the northern Bay, whereas the sink was decreased in the southern Bay due to an increase in pCO₂ levels through mixing with subsurface waters. In the case of severe cyclone <em>Michaung</em>, the decrease in flux of CO₂ due to an increase in pCO₂ levels in the surface water through mixing was compensated by an increase in CO₂ removal through NPP. In contrast, the decrease in CO₂ sink due to the very severe cyclone <em>Hudhud</em> was lower than the increase in NPP, resulting in a net sink of CO₂ in the Bay of Bengal. This study suggests that tropical cyclones may enhance CO₂ sink into the Bay of Bengal. An increase in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones is projected in future due to climate change that may help to achieve net zero emissions in future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103422"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143072465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent sea level changes in the Red Sea: Thermosteric and halosteric contributions, and impacts of natural climate variability","authors":"Bayoumy Mohamed ,&nbsp;Nikolaos Skliris","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103416","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates sea level changes in the Red Sea over the last 29 years (1993–2021) by analyzing long-term trends and interannual variations in the total sea level anomaly (SLA). The study also explores the role of thermosteric and halosteric changes and interannual variability of total SLA using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and their relationship with large-scale climate modes. The results show that the trends of total and steric SLA were higher in the northern Red Sea (NRS) than in the southern Red Sea (SRS), influenced by low-salinity water inflow from the Aden Gulf. The average SLA trend in the Red Sea between 1993 and 2021 was about 4.17 ± 0.14 mm/year. However, an abrupt change was observed in SLA and its components, with accelerating trends in the post-2008 period compared to the pre-2008 period. This increase was mainly due to the thermosteric effect, which was positively enhanced throughout the Red Sea. The halosteric component in the NRS contributed negatively to the overall steric effect. The interannual SLA variability accounts for about 45 % of the total variability and can be partially explained by the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103416"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142967795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tidal energetics in the eddying South China Sea from a high-resolution numerical simulation","authors":"Yonghe Tian ,&nbsp;Xiaolin Bai ,&nbsp;Chuanyin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhiyu Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding tidal energetics is crucial for comprehending complex oceanic processes in the South China Sea (SCS). Tidal energy budget in different parts of the world’s oceans has been widely estimated, but the dissipation pathways of tidal energy in the eddying ocean remain elusive. Based on a well-validated high-resolution numerical simulation, this study provides an updated estimate of tidal energy budget in the SCS with the modulation of realistic background currents and stratification. It reveals that ∼19.72% of barotropic tidal energy input in the Luzon Strait (LS) is converted to baroclinic tides, ∼75.66% of which is transmitted out of the LS and the other ∼24.34% is dissipated locally. Additionally, ∼61.20% of barotropic tidal energy is transmitted into the SCS, and the other ∼19.07% is dissipated locally. Analysis of barotropic tidal energy budget highlights significant work rate of K₁ tide-generating force in the SCS, whereas analysis of baroclinic tidal energy budget reveals the impacts of background fields on energy conversion from barotropic to baroclinic tides and energy dissipation of baroclinic tides. The seasonal variability of tidal dynamics and energetics further highlights the modulations by background fields. An exponential decay of baroclinic tidal energy flux with the distance from the generation site is revealed, and the decay scales for K₁ (northwestward and southwestward beam of M₂) baroclinic tide are estimated as 404 (195 and 127) km. A simple scaling of baroclinic tidal energy flux in the SCS, which may be used to characterize tidal mixing in large-scale ocean and climate models, is thus devised.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103418"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Food web analysis shows an exacerbated dependence of zooplankton on detritus in oligotrophic systems due to ocean warming” [Prog. Oceanogr. 231 (2025) 103389]","authors":"Luca Russo ,&nbsp;Matteo Loschi ,&nbsp;Daniele Bellardini ,&nbsp;Roberta Congestri ,&nbsp;Michael W. Lomas ,&nbsp;Simone Libralato ,&nbsp;Domenico D’Alelio","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103420","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103420"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143375847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Barents Sea — A passive or problematic invader?","authors":"Cecilie Hansen ,&nbsp;Erik Askov Mousing ,&nbsp;Carsten Hvingel","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The invasion and continued expansion of snow crab in the Barents Sea have provided the area with a new and valuable resource. On the negative side, this invasion may lead to changes in the ecosystem, including structural changes and shifts in energy pathways, as we generally view invaders as a problem. We investigated potential effects of snow crab invasion by applying an end-to-end ecosystem model under different scenarios of fishing and food availability. Overall, the model indicated a low negative impact of snow crab on the ecosystem in the region, also in a potential future with a much higher snow crab biomass. Although snow crab may be found to have local negative effects on specific benthic species, in general it appears that they have found a vacant ecological niche in the Barents Sea ecosystem. In addition, network analysis show that the food web of the Barents Sea becomes slightly more complex when including the snow crab, adding predator–prey interactions. By introducing more parallel foodpaths to the food web, this results in a more resilient ecosystem. Model simulations where the availability of prey to snow crab, and lack of fishing pressure maximizes snow crab abundance result in a somewhat increased impact on the food web. Nevertheless, the effects are still minor and there is no indications that the existing commercial fisheries for other species will be significantly affected. Hence, their role as a passive invader should be considered when structuring management responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103382"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143141154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Food web analysis shows an exacerbated dependence of zooplankton on detritus in oligotrophic systems due to ocean warming","authors":"Luca Russo ,&nbsp;Matteo Loschi ,&nbsp;Daniele Bellardini ,&nbsp;Roberta Congestri ,&nbsp;Michael W. Lomas ,&nbsp;Simone Libralato ,&nbsp;Domenico D’Alelio","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ocean warming can affect plankton both directly, through altered metabolic activities, and indirectly, modifying the physical–chemical properties of the water column, with possible effects on ecosystem functioning. To evaluate the combined action of warming-related physiological responses and environmental changes on plankton functioning, we carried out a long-term analysis (from 1994 to 2019) of the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) dataset where ocean warming and stratification have driven a decrease in the net primary production over the last decade. Using the time series of plankton observations, we assembled 1000 replicates of a food web model for each year. We observed that the total flow of matter through the model remained constant over time, despite the increased oligotrophication, due to global warming, after 2014. In fact, the plankton food web remained robust through re-modulated trophic interactions with an increased detritivory to herbivory ratio of the food web over time. However, it was problematic to re-establish the trophic connections of the food web broken by ocean warming, as remarked by the increased relative internal ascendency. Thanks to trophic plasticity, the reduced zooplankton dependence on herbivory was compensated by a significant increase in the reliance on carnivory and detritivores, highlighting the crucial role of trophic interactions in buffering significant environmental short-term changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103389"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142788923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}