{"title":"Firm Expectations and Economic Activity","authors":"Zeno Enders, Franziska Hünnekes, Gernot Müller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3384314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3384314","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15% of aggregate fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"276 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128123868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Endogenous Technology Space","authors":"Nikolas Kuhlen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3899948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3899948","url":null,"abstract":"We use probabilistic machine learning to span a new endogenous technology space from patent texts. We then rely on information-theoretic methods to construct measures of technological firm distances -- both fixed and time-varying. Using the latter, we present three sets of findings. First, we observe that industries are becoming more technologically specialised and segregated over time. Second, we identify the emergence of internet companies in the mid-1990s as a distinct group of firms with roots in traditional information and communication technologies. Third, we determine the unique set of time-varying rivals surrounding a focal firm in the endogenous technology space. We demonstrate the validity of this approach by means of a case study of the software company Oracle.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126237142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stock Predictability Using Sparse Learning Approach","authors":"B. Dasari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896781","url":null,"abstract":"This research paper aims to predict the stock returns of the theS&P 500 companies by using Sparse Learning Approach with the help of historical stock data. In the field of finance and microeconomics, variables keep expanding every day due to different factors or strategies introduced by humans intending to make the result profitable thereby making the process more complex. In the world of complexity, sparse learning is one of a kind approach to deal with huge variable sets. Hence, the intention of the paper is to apply the sparse methodology to the financial data of S&P 500 companies and observe the applicability of the model to these types of data sets. Variable selection is an important and quite challenging task in econometric modeling. There are different types of algorithms readily available to optimize and regularize the data sets of various processes in different fields such as medicine, finance, and telecommunication sectors. However, a major problem faced by an individual while working on research is the selection of variables in the data sets to carry out the analysis. To overcome this difficulty, we are interested in utilizing sparse learning model, especially lasso regression. In this paper, we have introduced the methodology and objective behind the model by analyzing it with S&P 500 data","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"299 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115439024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of the Internet on Business Exports in Mali with a Panel Database Analysis","authors":"Theophile Kabore","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3745658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3745658","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper was to measure the impact of owning a website and an email address on the exports of companies in Mali. It is based on panel data collected by the World Bank for the years 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2016. First, the study uses a probit model made it possible to analyze the determinants of the decision to export. for a company. As such, it appears that the technological variables are not significant in terms of the choice to export.<br><br>A second linear regression analyzed the factors that explain the level of export volumes. It reveals that owning a website increases the volume of a company's exports, while owning an email address decreases the volume of exports. The results can be used to fuel public policies aimed at boosting the country's exports.<br>","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133378510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public Listing Choice with Persistent Hidden Information","authors":"Francesco Celentano, Mark Rempel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3729715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3729715","url":null,"abstract":"How much does firm intangibility amplify CEOs' persistent private information and reduce firms' public listing propensity? We develop a model of competing public and private investors financing firms heterogeneously exposed to persistent private cashflows. Equilibrium financing is driven by information rent differentials in CEO compensation. We validate and structurally estimate the model using firm listing and CEO compensation data. We find private (intangible) cashflows exhibit 63% higher persistence than their tangible counterparts. Further, if firm intangibility levels returned to those of 1980, mean listing propensities would increase 8 percentage points while mean CEO variable pay growth would decrease by 43%.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115149878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Debt Structure and Debt Overhang","authors":"Liu Gan, Xin Xia, Hai Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3726577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3726577","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact of the optimal debt and priority structure on corporate financing and investment decisions in a dynamic trade-off model, where a firm simultaneously issues bank and market debt. Private bank debt is renegotiable during financial distress; thus it avoids inefficient and costly bankruptcy losses. Our model shows that the debt priority structure between bank and market debt has significant implications on ex post corporate policies, market leverage and firm valuation. Bank debt substitutes market debt in most cases except when firms face a low tax rate environment. Further, firms with stronger bargaining power, more valuable growth opportunities, or higher renegotiation frictions, facing lower cash flow risks, larger bankruptcy costs, or operating in a higher tax rate environment tend to rely more on market debt. We also demonstrate that the issuance of bank debt along with market debt mitigates the ex post debt overhang compared to the exclusive market debt structure, the effect of which is much stronger when the firm faces less renegotiation friction, lower bankruptcy costs, or higher corporate tax rate. These model predictions reconcile several empirical findings and generate a rich set of novel empirical tests.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114646391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simone Moriconi, G. Peri, Beata Smarzynska Javorcik
{"title":"The Role of Institutions and Immigrant Networks in Firms’ Offshoring Decisions","authors":"Simone Moriconi, G. Peri, Beata Smarzynska Javorcik","doi":"10.1111/CAJE.12470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/CAJE.12470","url":null,"abstract":"The offshoring of production by multinational firms has expanded dramatically in recent decades, increasing these firms' potential for economic growth and technological transfers across countries. What determines the location of offshore production? How do countries' policies and characteristics affect the firm's decision about where to offshore? Do firms choose specific countries because of their policies or because they know them better? In this paper, we use a very rich dataset on Danish firms to analyze how decisions to offshore production depend on the institutional characteristics of the country and firm-specific bilateral connections. We find that institutions that enhance investor protection and reduce corruption increase the probability that firms offshore there, while those that increase regulation in the labor market decrease such probability. We also show that a firm's probability of offshoring increases with the share of its employees who are immigrants from that country of origin.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116321094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Cash-Flow and Control Rights of Contingent Capital","authors":"C. Mitchell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3279915","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3279915","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a model of banking to study the risk-taking consequences of contingent capital (CC). It begins with the observation that partial conversion of CC provides its owners with a portfolio of equity and debt. Since the former (latter) asset typically induces a preference for risk taking (safety), the net preference of CC-holders upon conversion should depend on their relative holdings of each asset, which in turn, depends on the amount of CC converted. In addition to acquiring cash-flow rights, these conversions provide CC-holders with equity control rights, which afford them greater influence over management's portfolio selection. The paper demonstrates that rational shareholders - that anticipate these endogenous preferences and equity control rights - may be inclined to either: (1) dilute their own equity stakes through “excessive” risk taking in order to create risk-loving and influential CC-holders; or (2) rule-out conversion altogether through “excessive” safety, thereby preempting the creation of influential and safety-loving CC-holders. The results also suggest that higher CC-to-equity ratios can reduce the likelihood of reaching an “excessive” risk-taking equilibria.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"169 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133540268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Learning, Timing, and Pricing of the Option to Invest with Guaranteed Debt and Asymmetric Information","authors":"Pengfei Luo, Huamao Wang, Zhaojun Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3445784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3445784","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a borrower who must get a loan from a lender to start a project. The loan is secured by an insurer, who takes the project and the lender's loss at default. The borrower grants the insurer a fraction of the loan (fee-for-guarantee swap, FGS) or of the project's equity (equity-for-guarantee swap, EGS) as the guarantee cost. FGSs or EGSs are similar to credit default swaps (CDS) but the former are much more popular than the latter to small businesses. We assume the borrower knows the project's expected growth rate, but the insurer merely knows it to take a high or low value with a given initial belief on the high-type borrower. The insurer learns about the growth rate and dynamically updates her/his belief. We show that the learning reduces the guarantee cost and adverse selection cost. A sufficiently high initial belief would induce a pooling equilibrium, where the learning will accelerate investment, though the learning would postpone the investment sometimes. FGSs are superior to EGSs if information is somewhat asymmetric, explaining the fact that the former are more popular than the latter in practice.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133767804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Neoclassical Theory of Term Structure","authors":"Thomas W. Downs","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3658526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3658526","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a specification for the neoclassical user cost of capital that reflects dynamic processes for debt maturity structure and for pretax cash flows. Equivalencing levered and unlevered user costs reveals tradeoffs between equilibrium financing rates and underlying processes that satisfy a dynamic no-arbitrage equilibrium condition between debt, equity, and costless reversible real investment. The primary finding is that an increase in debt ratio or loan term associates with an increase in equilibrium financing rate – invariance of the neoclassical user cost to leverage implies an endogenous upward sloped yield curve.","PeriodicalId":201359,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Firm Behavior eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129674185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}