Pancreas最新文献

{"title":"Bodyweight-Adjusted Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs Dose in the Prevention of Post-endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis.","authors":"Atsuto Kayashima, Masayasu Horibe, Eisuke Iwasaki, Fateh Bazerbachi, Shintaro Kawasaki, Takanori Kanai","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002418","DOIUrl":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002418","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Although rectal nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reduce the incidence of postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP), their optimal dosage is unknown. Given possible interindividual variability in the pharmacodynamics of NSAIDs, we hypothesized that the dose required to achieve adequate PEP prophylaxis varies with body weight.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>We conducted an analysis using single-center, prospective, observational cohort study data. The primary outcome was PEP incidence by NSAID dosage per body weight (mg/kg). Patients meeting the inclusion criteria were classified into 3 groups.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included 891 patients, with 400, 454, and 37 patients in the control group with no NSAID therapy, the NSAID <1.0 mg/kg group, and the NSAID ≥1.0 mg/kg group, respectively. In the adjusted cohort, the odds ratio of PEP was 0.18 (95% confidence interval: 0.041-0.79; P = 0.023) for NSAID ≥1.0 mg/kg and 1.3 (95% confidence interval: 0.76-2.3; P = 0.31) for NSAID <1.0 mg/kg compared to the control group without NSAID.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>PEP was not prevented by NSAID dosages below 1.0 mg/kg body weight whereas a dosage above 1.0 mg/kg body weight had a significant prophylactic effect. An NSAID dosage adjusted to body weight may be necessary to achieve an adequate prophylactic effect against PEP.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":"54 3","pages":"e188-e193"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143503085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pancreatic Cancer Risk and Screening Outcomes in Li-Fraumeni Syndrome.","authors":"Conrad J Fernandes, Yun K Du, Ann Naumer, Laura A Kagami, Anh Le, Madeline Good, Melani Duvall, Jacquelyn Powers, Kristin Zelley, Luke Maese, Suzanne MacFarland, Wendy Kohlmann, Kara N Maxwell, Bryson W Katona","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002483","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a cancer predisposition syndrome that may confer increased pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. This study assesses PC risk and the rate of pancreatic imaging abnormalities in LFS.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>PC prevalence in LFS was calculated for individuals with a known TP53 variant from the IARC/NCI database. Pancreatic imaging studies across three institutional LFS cohorts were reviewed and compared using Fisher's Exact test.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of 3043 individuals with LFS in the IARC/NCI database 46 (1.5%) had PC and 42/1243 (3.4%) LFS families had a member with PC. Amongst PCs with a known age of diagnosis, 2.6% and 43.2% were diagnosed prior to age 30 and 50 respectively. Across three institutional LFS cohorts, 32/329 (9.7%) individuals had a pancreatic imaging abnormality, including cysts in 20 (6.1%) and a mass in 4 (1.2%). Whole-body MRI (WBMRI) had the lowest detection rate of pancreatic abnormalities (6%) whereas endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)/MRI Abdomen (MRI Abd) had the highest (50%/20.8%, respectively). Cysts were detected more frequently with EUS/MRI Abd (33.1%/18.1%, respectively) compared to WBMRI (4.3%). Individuals older than age 50 were more likely to have a pancreatic abnormality (35.8% versus 4.7%, P<0.01) or pancreatic cyst (26.4% compared to 2.2%, P<0.001) compared to those younger than age 50.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>PC may occur earlier in LFS compared to the general population. WBMRI identifies pancreatic abnormalities less frequently than other pancreatic cancer screening modalities in LFS. If dedicated PC screening is performed in LFS, screening should likely start prior to age 50 and use either EUS or MRI Abd.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143503070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early Administration of Pancrelipase Prevents Skeletal Muscle Mass Loss Following Distal Pancreatectomy.","authors":"Hiromitsu Maehira, Haruki Mori, Nobuhito Nitta, Takeru Maekawa, Hajime Ishikawa, Reiko Otake, Soichiro Tani, Katsushi Takebayashi, Masatsugu Kojima, Sachiko Kaida, Toru Miyake, Masaji Tani","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002480","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>The clinical significance of early administration of pancrelipase after distal pancreatectomy (DP) has not been reported, and its effect on new-onset diabetes mellitus (DM) has not been clarified. This study aimed to investigate the effect of early administration of pancrelipase after DP on postoperative nutritional status, skeletal muscle mass, and new-onset DM.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 76 patients who underwent DP. Delayed-release high-titer pancrelipase was administered daily, starting on postoperative day 3 (EP group). Postoperative nutritional status, skeletal muscle mass index (SMI), and new-onset DM were evaluated 6 months following DP. These factors were compared between the EP and control groups.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Thirty-four patients (44.7%) were included in the EP group. Regarding the postoperative status 6 months after DP, the body mass index (BMI) was higher (P=0.004), hemoglobin A1c was higher (P=0.034), and SMI reduction ratio was lower (P=0.005) in the EP group than in the control group. However, the incidence of new-onset DM was similar between the two groups. After propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting analyses, the SMI reduction ratio was lower in the EP group (P=0.040 and P=0.003, respectively) than in the control group; however, no significant difference was observed in the incidence of new-onset DM and the hemoglobin A1c level.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Early administration of pancrelipase prevents loss of skeletal muscle mass after DP.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144041551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NAMPT Modulates Gemcitabine Resistance in Pancreatic Cancer via the p53 Signaling Pathway.","authors":"Jia Xu, Wenchao Xu, Jianzhou Liu, Ren Zheng, Xinmin Zhang, Xuanqi Wang, Li Yang, Li Zhou, Gary Guishan Xiao, Junchao Guo","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002468","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is often diagnosed at an advanced stage. Although gemcitabine (GEM) is commonly used as the first-line chemotherapy, many patients eventually develop resistance. This study aims to investigate the role of nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT) in mediating gemcitabine resistance in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), with a focus on identifying potential therapeutic targets within the nicotinate and nicotinamide metabolic pathways.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We established the gemcitabine-resistant pancreatic cancer cell line BxPC-3-GR9 to simulate acquired resistance development. Subsequently, we conducted LC/MS metabolomics assays to identify altered metabolic pathways during gemcitabine resistance development. Additionally, molecular and functional experiments targeting key enzymes in KEGG-enriched metabolic pathways to identify genes exhibiting significant changes. Mechanistically, transcriptome sequencing and molecular assays were employed to elucidate the regulatory mechanisms governing these target genes.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Compared to parent BxPC-3 cell lines, significant alterations in the nicotinate and nicotinamide metabolic pathways were found in BxPC-3-GR9. Furthermore, nicotinamide was the only metabolite shared during the enrichment process; higher expression of NAMPT was also detected in gemcitabine-resistant cell lines. NAMPT knockdown increased gemcitabine sensitivity in gemcitabine-resistant cells, which validated in inherently resistant cell lines. Transcriptome analysis and molecular experiments demonstrated that NAMPT regulates the p53 signaling pathway via CCND1/2, contributing to gemcitabine resistance.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These findings suggest that NAMPT could serve as a promising therapeutic target to overcome gemcitabine resistance in PDAC, laying the groundwork for future clinical investigations aimed at modulating nicotinate and nicotinamide metabolism to improve treatment outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144004751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Serum Exosomal miR-216a Contributes to Acute Pancreatitis-Associated Acute Lung Injury by Enhancing Endothelial cell Vascular Permeability via Downregulating LAMC1.","authors":"Huiyun Zhu, Xianzhu Zhou, Xingcheng Sun, Chunting Fu, Ge Li, Xiaoyang Dong, Xiangyu Kong, Xiaoju Su, Yiqi Du","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002467","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an internal medical emergency disease, with fatal complications including acute lung injury (ALI). Recent studies have highlighted the critical roles of exosomal microRNAs (miRNAs) in AP-ALI. In the present study, we aim to investigate the role of serum exosomal miR-216a in AP-ALI and its underlying mechanisms.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The levels of miR-216a in patients and rat models with AP and AP-ALI were assessed via real-time quantitative PCR (qRT-PCR) analysis. Patient and rat blood exosomes were isolated and co-cultured with HUVECs. The permeability of HUVECs was evaluated via trans-endothelial electrical resistance (TEER) assay. Bioinformatics predicting and luciferase reporter assays were used to identified potential targets of miR-216a. In addition, miR-216a mimic and LAMC1 overexpressed plasmid were constructed to identify the effects of miR-216a/LAMC1 axis on endothelial cell permeability in vitro. Anti-miR-216a and exosomes were used to identify the critical role of exosomal miR-216a in AP-ALI in vivo.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The findings indicated that there was a significant upregulation of miR-216a in AP-ALI patients and rat models. The occurrence of ALI during AP progression promoted the expression of serum exosomal miR-216a. Exosomal could promote HUVECs permeability by releasing miR-216a. For target studies, miR-216a was found to bind to LAMC1 to regulate its transcription level. MiR-216a-mediated downregulation of LAMC1 lead to increased permeability of HUVECs. Exosome-derived miR-216a has also been proved to promote lung damage in AP-ALI rats.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In summary, serum exosomal miR-216a can promote the onset and progression of AP-ALI by augmenting endothelial cell vascular permeability. This finding presents a theoretical basis for exploring new therapeutic approaches targeting AP-ALI.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143409563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pancreatic Malformation and Heterotaxy Syndrome Associated With 6q25.1 Haploinsufficiency.","authors":"Berta Sufrate-Vergara, Carla Martín Grau, Laia Pedrola Vidal, Purificación Marín-Reina, María Jesús Esteban Ríos, Raquel Rodríguez-López","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002473","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143408471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Predictive Value of Red Cell Distribution Width for the Risk of Sepsis in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.","authors":"Chao Yang, Haijun Cao, Shanshan Chen, Cheng Ye, Zemin Feng, Haochen Zhang, Li Xu","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002475","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study was to evaluate the association between red cell distribution width (RDW) and sepsis in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients, and assess its predictive value for sepsis in AP patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective cohort study collected patients' data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care databases. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were exploited to compare the mortality within 30 days in AP patients with or without sepsis, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate the association, with odds ratios (ORs) and 95%CIs calculated. The predictive value of RDW, white blood cell (WBC) sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), SOFA+RDW, simplified acute physiology score II (SAPSII), SAPSII+RDW, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), BISAP+RDW for sepsis risk in patients with AP were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 327 AP patients developed sepsis. The high RDW level was linked to a higher sepsis risk in patients with AP, carrying a (95% CI) of 1.10. Delong test showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of SOFA+RDW, SAPSII+RDW and BISAP+RDW scoring models were significantly greater than those of SOFA, SAPSII and BISAP scoring models, respectively (0.822 vs 0.776; 0.708 vs 0.688; 0.609 vs 0.550, respectively).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>RDW is not only linked to sepsis risk, but also has a certain additive effect on SOFA, SAPSII and BISAP models, among which SOFA+RDW has the highest discrimination capacity for sepsis in AP patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143409525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Usefulness of MRI T1 Mapping in Predicting Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy.","authors":"Noriyuki Kitagawa, Akira Shimizu, Akira Yamada, Koji Kubota, Tsuyoshi Notake, Hitoshi Masuo, Shiori Yamazaki, Shohei Hirano, Yoshiharu Yokokawa, Yuji Soejima","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002471","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the most significant and potentially lethal complication of pancreatectomy. This study evaluated the association between MRI pancreatic T1 mapping and POPF and developed a new, useful, and noninvasive predictor of distal pancreatectomy (DP).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study included 39 patients who underwent preoperative MRI T1 mapping using the Modified Look-Locker Inversion Recovery Sequence (MOLLI) followed by DP between January 2018 and July 2024. Patients with (POPF (+), n=15) and those without POPF (POPF (-), n=24) were compared for their characteristics, perioperative outcomes, and parameters derived from MRI. The circular region of interest was positioned on the pancreatic head, ventral side of the portal vein, and transection site to measure the T1 mapping value. The data were analyzed using R1 values (R1=1/T1), and the cut-off values were calculated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The R1 value of the pancreatic transection site in the POPF (+) group was significantly higher than that in the POPF (-) group (1.180 vs. 1.066 sec-1; P<0.001). The R1 value of the pancreatic transection site was an independent risk factor for grade B/C POPF (odds ratio, 5.01; P=0.005). To predict POPF, a cutoff R1 value of 1.116 sec-1 at the transection site was obtained by maximizing the Youden index.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>High R1 values at the pancreatic transection site indicate a higher possibility of developing grade B/C POPF. Preoperative MRI T1 mapping may be valuable for predicting POPF after DP.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143409668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the Application of Laparoscopic Peritoneal Lavage and Drainage in the Early Treatment of Severe Acute Pancreatitis.","authors":"Hankun Yuan, Wenxiang Liang, Shenglin You, Jiajie Zhou, Sizong Chen, Xijuan Tan, Qiyi Luo, Yufei Ma, Libai Lu, Zongjiang Luo, Jianchu Wang","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002478","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To investigate the clinical efficacy of laparoscopic peritoneal lavage and drainage (LPLD) in the early stage of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and its potential role in reversing organ failure.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>This study involved 79 patients diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis with ascites, who were admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University of Nationalities between January 2020 and May 2024. Based on the intervention strategy, the patients were categorized into two groups: the abdominal paracentesis drainage (APD) group (n=42) and the LPLD group (n=37). We conducted a retrospective analysis comparing various parameters including demographic information, trends in inflammatory marker fluctuations, incidence of organ failure, step-up treatment, duration of ICU stay, drainage tube indwelling time, complications, total hospitalization days, total hospitalization cost , and mortality rates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In addition to the observation that the preoperative volume of ascites was significantly greater in the APD group compared to the LPLD group (P = 0.005), the baseline characteristics of both groups were comparable. Postoperatively, The white blood cell count and C-reactive protein levels in the LPLD group exhibited a significantly faster decline compared to those in the APD group. (P < 0.05 and P < 0.001). There were no statistically significant differences in the rates of hemodialysis, pancreatic pseudocyst, abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS)，and mortality between the two patient groups. (P > 0.05). The LPLD group exhibited significantly reduced durations for mechanical ventilation, step-up treatment, duration of ICU stay, drainage tube indwelling time, duration of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), incidence of intra-abdominal infection, new onset organ dysfunctions, total hospitalization days, and total hospitalization cost when compared to the APD group (P < 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In patients with SAP complicated by ascites, early-stage LPLD can effectively alleviate systemic inflammatory response, expedite organ failure reversal, delay disease progression, avoid step-up treatment, reduce postoperative complications and shorten hospitalization duration. This minimally invasive therapeutic approach represents a promising strategy for early intervention in SAP.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143399616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Performance of Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Post-ERCP Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review.","authors":"Nasruddin Sabrie, Gurjot Minhas, Marcus Vaska, Zhao Wu Meng, Darren R Brenner, Nauzer Forbes","doi":"10.1097/MPA.0000000000002476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/MPA.0000000000002476","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Pancreatitis is common following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Despite increased vigilance of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP), both its incidence and associated mortality are rising. Risk prediction models may provide more accurate stratification of patient risk and proactive mitigation of PEP incidence and/or severe associated outcomes.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted an electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMEd, Cochrane, and CINAHL from inception through April 9, 2024 for studies evaluating the details and performances of available PEP prediction models. Studies were eligible if they used statistical measures to quantify their model's predictive ability. Risk of bias was determined using the PROBAST tool.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Nineteen studies met eligibility criteria and were included. Logistic regression models were used in 15 studies, with machine learning models representing the second most commonly employed approach. Ten studies reported the performance of their risk prediction models using derivation data, with areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) ranging from 0.68 to 0.86. Fifteen studies reported the performance of their risk prediction models on internally validated data, with AUCs ranging from 0.66 to 0.97. Eight studies reported on the performance of their risk prediction models on external validation data, with AUCs ranging from 0.67 to 0.98.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Numerous PEP clinical prediction models exist with variable performances. The use of PEP prediction tools can support the management of patients following ERCP. Implementation studies assessing the optimal usability of these tools, followed by prospective evaluations, are needed to evaluate their potential impacts on reducing PEP in real-world practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143399628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}