Ocean Science最新文献

{"title":"Technical note: Determining Arctic Ocean halocline and cold halostad depths based on vertical stability","authors":"Enrico P. Metzner, Marc Salzmann","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1453-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1453-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Arctic Ocean halocline separates the cold surface mixed layer from the underlying warm Atlantic Water (AW), and thus provides a precondition for sea ice formation. Here, we introduce a new method in which the halocline base depth is determined from vertical stability and compare it to two existing methods. We also propose a novel method for detecting the cold halostad, a layer characterized by a small vertical salinity gradient, which is formed by the Pacific Winter Water in the Canada Basin or by meltwater off the eastern coast of Greenland and off Svalbard. Our main motivation for determining the halocline base depth depending on vertical stability was that vertical stability is closely related to vertical mixing and heat exchange. Vertical stability is a crucial parameter for determining whether the halocline can prevent vertical heat exchange and protect sea ice from warm AW. When applied to measurements from ice-tethered profilers, ships, and moorings, the new method for estimating the halocline base depth provides robust results with few artifacts. Analyzing a case in which water previously homogenized by winter convection was capped by fresh water at the surface suggests that the new method captured the beginning of new halocline formation in the Eurasian Basin. Comparatively large differences between the methods for detecting the halocline base depth were found in warm AW inflow regions for which climate models predict halocline thinning and increased net surface energy fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere.","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135884041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intraseasonal and interannual variability of sea temperature in the Arabian Sea Warm Pool","authors":"Na Li, Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Shouwen Zhang, Xidong Wang","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1437-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1437-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool, formed in the Arabian Sea before the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. The ASWP has a significant impact on climate change in the Indian Peninsula and globally. In this study, we examined the intraseasonal and interannual variability of sea temperature in the ASWP using the latest Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis dataset. We quantified the contributions of sea surface heat flux forcing, horizontal advection, and vertical entrainment to the sea temperature using the mixed-layer heat budget analysis method. We also used a lead–lag correlation method to examine the relationship between the interannual variability of the ASWP and various large-scale modes in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. We found that the ASWP formed in April and decayed in June; its formation and decay processes were asymmetrical, with the decay rate being twice as fast as the formation rate. During the ASWP development phase, the sea surface heat flux forcing had the largest impact on the mixed-layer temperature with a contribution of up to 85 %. Its impact was divided into the net surface heat flux (0.41–0.50 ∘C per 5 d) and the shortwave radiation loss penetrating the mixed layer (from −0.08 ∘C per 5 d to −0.17 ∘C per 5 d). During the decay phase, the cooling effect of the vertical entrainment on the temperature variation increased (from −0.05 ∘C per 5 d to −0.18 ∘C per 5 d) and dominated the temperature variation jointly with the sea surface heat flux forcing. We also found that the ASWP has strong interannual variability related to the basin warming of the Indian Ocean. The lead–lag correlation indicated that the ASWP had a good synchronous correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole. The ASWP had the largest correlation coefficient at a lag of 5–7 months of the Niño3.4 index, showing the characteristics of modulation by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When the El Niño (La Niña) event peaked in the winter of the previous year, the ASWP that occurred before the summer monsoon was more significant (insignificant) in the following year.","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"252 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136034722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ocean 2D eddy energy fluxes from small mesoscale processes with SWOT","authors":"Elisa Carli, Rosemary Morrow, Oscar Vergara, Robin Chevrier, Lionel Renault","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1413-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1413-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We investigate ocean dynamics at different scales in the Agulhas Current system, a region of important interocean exchange of heat and energy. While ocean observations and some of the most advanced climate models capture the larger mesoscale dynamics (> 100 km), the smaller-scale fronts and eddies are underrepresented. The recently launched NASA–CNES Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide-swath altimeter mission observes the smaller ocean geostrophic scales down to 15 km in wavelength globally. Here we will analyse different eddy diagnostics in the Agulhas Current region and quantify the contributions from the larger mesoscales observable today and the smaller scales to be observed with SWOT. Surface geostrophic diagnostics of eddy kinetic energy, strain, and energy cascades are estimated from modelled sea surface height (SSH) fields of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) latitude–longitude polar cap (LLC4320) simulation subsampled at 1/10∘. In this region, the smaller scales (<150 km) have a strong signature on the horizontal geostrophic strain rate and for all eddy diagnostics in the Western Boundary Current and along the meandering Agulhas Extension. We investigate the horizontal cascade of energy using a coarse-graining technique, and we observe that the wavelength range where the inverse cascade occurs is biased towards larger mesoscale wavelengths with today’s altimetric sampling. We also calculate the projected sampling of the eddy diagnostics under the SWOT swaths built with the NASA–CNES simulator to include the satellite position and realistic noise. For the swaths, a neural network noise mitigation method is implemented to reduce the residual SWOT random error before calculating eddy diagnostics. In terms of SSH, observable wavelengths of 15 to 20 km are retrieved after neural network noise mitigation, as opposed to wavelengths larger than 40 km before the noise reduction.","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135351415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating altimetry-derived surface currents on the south Greenland shelf with surface drifters","authors":"Arthur Coquereau, Nicholas P. Foukal","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1393-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1393-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The pathways and fate of freshwater in the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) are crucial to the climate system. The EGCC transports large amounts of freshwater in close proximity to sites of deep open-ocean convection in the Labrador and Irminger seas. Many studies have attempted to analyze this system from models and various observational platforms, but the modeling results largely disagree with one another, and observations are limited due to the harsh conditions typical of the region. Altimetry-derived surface currents, constructed from remote-sensing observations and applying geostrophic equations, provide a continuous observational data set beginning in 1993. However, these products have historically encountered difficulties in coastal regions, and thus their validity must be checked. In this work, we use a comprehensive methodology to compare these Eulerian data to a Lagrangian data set of 34 surface drifter trajectories and demonstrate that the altimetry-derived surface currents are surprisingly capable of recovering the spatial structure of the flow field on the south Greenland shelf and can mimic the Lagrangian nature of the flow as observed from surface drifters.","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136235776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bivariate sea-ice assimilation for global-ocean analysis–reanalysis","authors":"Andrea Cipollone, Deep Sankar Banerjee, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ali Aydogdu, Simona Masina","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1375-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In the last decade, various satellite missions have been monitoring the status of the cryosphere and its evolution. Besides sea-ice concentration data, available since the 1980s, sea-ice thickness retrievals are now ready to be used in global operational prediction and global reanalysis systems. Nevertheless, while univariate algorithms are commonly used to constrain sea-ice area or volume, multivariate approaches have not yet been employed due to the highly non-Gaussian distribution of sea-ice variables together with the low accuracy of thickness observations. This study extends a 3DVar system, called OceanVar, which is routinely employed in the production of global/regional operational/reanalysis products, to process sea-ice variables. The tangent/adjoint versions of an anamorphosis operator are used to locally transform the sea-ice anomalies into Gaussian control variables and back, minimizing in the latter space. The benefit achieved by such a transformation is described. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out using a suite of diverse datasets. The sole assimilation of the CryoSat-2 provides a good spatial representation of thickness distribution but still overestimates the total volume that requires the inclusion of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission data to converge towards the observation estimates. The intermittent availability of thickness data can lead to potential jumps in the evolution of the volume and requires a dedicated tuning. The use of the merged L4 product CS2SMOS shows the best skill score when validated against independent measurements during the melting season when satellite data are not available. This new sea-ice module is meant to simplify the future coupling with ocean variables.","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135437341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial and temporal variability in mode-1 and mode-2 internal solitary waves from MODIS-Terra sun glint off the Amazon shelf","authors":"Carina Regina de Macedo, Ariane Koch-Larrouy, José Carlos Bastos da Silva, Jorge Manuel Magalhães, Carlos Alessandre Domingos Lentini, Trung Kien Tran, Marcelo Caetano Barreto Rosa, Vincent Vantrepotte","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1357-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1357-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Amazon shelf is a key region for intense internal tides (ITs) and nonlinear internal solitary wave (ISWs) generation associated with them. The region shows well-marked seasonal variability (from March to July, MAMJJ, and from August to December, ASOND) of the circulation and stratification, which can both induce changes in the ISW physical characteristics. The description of the seasonal and neap–spring tidal variability in the ISWs off the Amazon shelf is performed for the first time using a meaningful data set composed of 140 MODIS-Terra imagery from 2005 to 2021, where about 500 ISW signatures were identified in the sun glint region. Previous studies have documented the existence of mode-1 ISWs, but the region appears as a newly described hotspot for mode-2 ISWs. ISW packets separated by typical mode-1 (95–170 km; 2.1–3.8 m s−1) and mode-2 (46–85 km; 1.0–1.9 m s−1) IT wavelengths have been identified and mapped coming from different IT generation sites. For each ISW, a group of waves (3 to 10) is generally follows the largest crest. The intra-packet distance between each wave in the group is about 10 to 20 km. Regions of higher occurrence of ISWs are spaced by a IT mode-1 wavelength. We make the assumption that it might correspond to the IT reflection beams at the surface, which may generate newer ISWs. The mean mode-1 and mode-2 inter-packet distances do not show significant differences according to their IT generation sites. The ISW activity is higher (more than 60 % of signatures) during spring tides than neap tides. In the region under the influence of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC), ISWs are separated by a mean mode-1 IT wavelength which is 14.3 % higher during ASOND than during MAMJJ due to a deeper thermocline and the reinforcement of the NECC. These ISWs are also characterized by a wider inter-packet distance distribution (higher standard deviation) that may be related to the stronger eddy kinetic energy (EKE) during ASOND compared to MAMJJ. The mean inter-packet distance of mode-2 ISWs remains almost unchanged during the two seasons, but the inter-packet distance distribution is wider in ASOND than in MAMJJ as for mode 1. Note that these results need to be treated with caution, as only few occurrences of mode-2 waves were found during MAMJJ. In the region of the NECC, the direction of propagation for all modes is very similar in MAMJJ (about 30∘ clockwise from the north), whereas, for ASOND, the ISWs propagate in a wider pathway (from 0 to 60∘ clockwise from the north), due to a much larger eddy activity. During ASOND, as the background flux goes further east, the inter-packet distances become larger (4 % for mode 1 and 7.8 % for mode 2). These results show that the reinforcement of the NECC in ASOND appears to play a role in diverting the waves towards the east, increasing their phase velocities and their eastern traveling direction component when compared to MAMJJ. Calculations of the IT velocities using t","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"156 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135741113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coastal and regional marine heatwaves and cold spells in the northeastern Atlantic","authors":"A. Simon, Coline Poppeschi, S. Plecha, G. Charria, A. Russo","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1339-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1339-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report describes an increase in the number and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and a decrease in marine cold spells (MCSs) in\u0000the global ocean. However, these reported changes are not uniform on a regional to local basis, and it remains unknown if coastal areas follow the\u0000open-ocean trends. Surface ocean temperature measurements collected by satellites (from 1982–2022) and 13 coastal buoys (from 1990–2022) are\u0000analyzed in the northeastern Atlantic and three subregions: the English Channel, Bay of Brest and Bay of Biscay. The activity metric, combining the number\u0000of events, intensity, duration and spatial extent, is used to evaluate the magnitude of these extreme events. The results from in situ and\u0000satellite datasets for each of the studied regions are quite in agreement, although the satellite dataset underestimates the amplitude of activity\u0000for both MHWs and MCSs. This supports the applicability of the method to both in situ and satellite data, albeit with caution on the amplitude of\u0000these events. Also, this localized study in European coastal northeastern Atlantic water highlights that similar changes are being seen in coastal and\u0000open oceans regarding extreme events of temperature, with MHWs being more frequent and longer and extending over larger areas, while the opposite is\u0000seen for MCSs. These trends can be explained by changes in both the mean of and variance in sea-surface temperature. In addition, the pace of evolution\u0000and dynamics of marine extreme events differ among the subregions. Among the three studied subregions, the English Channel is the region\u0000experiencing the strongest increase in summer MHW activity over the last 4 decades. Summer MHWs were very active in the English Channel in 2022\u0000due to long events, in the Bay of Biscay in 2018 due to intense events and in the Bay of Brest in 2017 due to a high occurrence of events. Winter\u0000MCSs were the largest in 1987 and 1986 due to long and intense events in the English Channel. Finally, our findings suggest that at an interannual\u0000timescale, the positive North Atlantic Oscillation favors the generation of strong summer MHWs in the northeastern Atlantic, while\u0000low-pressure conditions over northern Europe and a high off the Iberian Peninsula in winter dominate for MCSs. A preliminary analysis of air–sea\u0000heat fluxes suggests that, in this region, reduced cloud coverage is a key parameter for the generation of summer MHWs, while strong winds and\u0000increased cloud coverage are important for the generation of winter MCSs.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85823481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional modeling of internal-tide dynamics around New Caledonia – Part 1: Coherent internal-tide characteristics and sea surface height signature","authors":"Arne Bendinger, S. Cravatte, L. Gourdeau, L. Brodeau, A. Albert, Michel Tchilibou, F. Lyard, C. Vic","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1315-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1315-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The southwestern tropical Pacific exhibits a complex bathymetry and represents a hot spot of internal-tide generation. Based on a tailored high-resolution regional model, we investigate for the first time the internal-tide field around the New Caledonia islands through energy budgets that quantify the coherent internal-tide generation, propagation, and dissipation. A total of 15.27 GW is converted from the barotropic to the baroclinic M2 tide with the main conversion sites associated with the most prominent bathymetric structures such as continental slopes and narrow passages in the north (2.17 GW) and ridges and seamounts south of New Caledonia (3.92 GW). The bulk of baroclinic energy is generated in shallow waters around 500 m depth and on critical to supercritical slopes, highlighting the limitations of linear semi-analytical models in those areas. Despite the strongly dominant mode-1 generation, more than 50 % of the locally generated energy either dissipates in the near field close to the generation sites or loses coherence. The remaining baroclinic energy propagates within well-defined tidal beams with baroclinic energy fluxes of up to 30 kW m−1 toward the open ocean. The New Caledonia site represents a challenge for SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) observability of balanced motion in the presence of internal tides with sea surface height (SSH) signatures >6 cm at similar wavelengths. We show for our study region that a correction of SSH for the coherent internal tide potentially increases the observability of balanced motion from wavelengths >160 km to well below 100 km.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83051611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nouméa: a new multi-mission calibration and validation site for past and future altimetry missions?","authors":"Clémence Chupin, V. Ballu, L. Testut, Y. Tranchant, J. Aucan","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1277-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1277-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Today, monitoring the evolution of sea level in coastal\u0000areas is of importance, since almost 11 % of the world's population\u0000lives\u0000in low-lying areas. Reducing uncertainties in sea level estimates requires\u0000a\u0000better understanding of both altimetry measurements and local sea level\u0000dynamics. In New Caledonia, the Nouméa lagoon is an example of this\u0000challenge, as altimetry, coastal tide gauge, and vertical land motions\u0000from global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) do not provide consistent\u0000information. The GEOCEAN-NC 2019 field campaign addresses this issue with\u0000deployments of in situ instruments in the lagoon (GNSS buoy,\u0000pressure gauge, etc.),\u0000with a particular focus on the crossover of one Jason-series track and two\u0000Sentinel-3A missions tracks. In this study, we propose a method to\u0000virtually\u0000transfer the Nouméa tide gauge at the altimetry crossover point, using\u0000in situ data\u0000from the field campaign. Following the philosophy of calibration and validation (Cal/Val) studies, we\u0000derive absolute altimeter bias time series over the entire Jason and\u0000Sentinel-3A periods. Overall, our estimated altimeter mean biases are\u0000slightly larger by 1–2 cm compared to Corsica and Bass Strait results,\u0000with\u0000inter-mission biases in line with those of Bass Strait site. Uncertainties\u0000still remain regarding the determination of our vertical datum, only\u0000constrained by the three days of the GNSS buoy deployment. With our method,\u0000we are able to re-analyse about 20 years of altimetry observations and\u0000derive a linear trend of −0.2 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 over the bias time series.\u0000Compared to previous studies, we do not find any significant uplift in the\u0000area, which is more consistent with the observations of inland permanent\u0000GNSS stations. These results support the idea of developing Cal/Val\u0000activities in the lagoon, which is already the subject of several\u0000experiments for the scientific calibration phase of the SWOT wide-swath\u0000altimetry mission.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74378522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential artifacts in conservation laws and invariants inferred from sequential state estimation","authors":"C. Wunsch, S. Williamson, P. Heimbach","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1253-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1253-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In sequential estimation methods often used in oceanic and general climate\u0000calculations of the state and of forecasts, observations act mathematically\u0000and statistically as source or sink terms in conservation equations for heat, salt, mass, and momentum.\u0000These artificial terms obscure the inference of the system's variability or secular changes.\u0000Furthermore, for the purposes of calculating changes in\u0000important functions of state variables such as total mass and energy or\u0000volumetric current transports, results of both filter and smoother-based estimates are sensitive to misrepresentation\u0000of a large variety of parameters, including initial conditions, prior\u0000uncertainty covariances, and systematic and random errors in observations.\u0000Here, toy models of a coupled mass–spring oscillator system and of a barotropic Rossby wave system are used to\u0000demonstrate many of the issues that arise from such misrepresentations.\u0000Results from Kalman filter estimates and those from finite interval\u0000smoothing are analyzed.\u0000In the filter (and prediction) problem, entry of data leads to violation of\u0000conservation and other invariant rules.\u0000A finite interval smoothing method restores the conservation rules, but\u0000uncertainties in all such estimation results remain. Convincing trend and\u0000other time-dependent determinations in “reanalysis-like” estimates require a full understanding of models, observations, and underlying error structures. Application of smoother-type methods that are designed for optimal reconstruction purposes alleviate some of the issues.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87065956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}