Ocean Science最新文献

{"title":"Ensemble analysis and forecast of ecosystem indicators in the North Atlantic using ocean colour observations and prior statistics from a stochastic NEMO–PISCES simulator","authors":"Mikhail Popov, J. Brankart, Arthur Capet, E. Cosme, P. Brasseur","doi":"10.5194/os-20-155-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-155-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study is anchored in the H2020 SEAMLESS project (https://www.seamlessproject.org, last access: 29 January 2024), which aims to develop ensemble assimilation methods to be implemented in Copernicus Marine Service monitoring and forecasting systems, in order to operationally estimate a set of targeted ecosystem indicators in various regions, including uncertainty estimates. In this paper, a simplified approach is introduced to perform a 4D (space–time) ensemble analysis describing the evolution of the ocean ecosystem. An example application is provided, which covers a limited time period in a limited subregion of the North Atlantic (between 31 and 21∘ W, between 44 and 50.5∘ N, between 15 March and 15 June 2019, at a 1/4∘ and a 1 d resolution). The ensemble analysis is based on prior ensemble statistics from a stochastic NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean)–PISCES simulator. Ocean colour observations are used as constraints to condition the 4D prior probability distribution. As compared to classic data assimilation, the simplification comes from the decoupling between the forward simulation using the complex modelling system and the update of the 4D ensemble to account for the observation constraint. The shortcomings and possible advantages of this approach for biogeochemical applications are discussed in the paper. The results show that it is possible to produce a multivariate ensemble analysis continuous in time and consistent with the observations. Furthermore, we study how the method can be used to extrapolate analyses calculated from past observations into the future. The resulting 4D ensemble statistical forecast is shown to contain valuable information about the evolution of the ecosystem for a few days after the last observation. However, as a result of the short decorrelation timescale in the prior ensemble, the spread of the ensemble forecast increases quickly with time. Throughout the paper, a special emphasis is given to discussing the statistical reliability of the solution. Two different methods have been applied to perform this 4D statistical analysis and forecast: the analysis step of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (with domain localization) and a Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampler (with covariance localization), both enhanced by the application of anamorphosis to the original variables. Despite being very different, the two algorithms produce very similar results, thus providing support to each other's estimates. As shown in the paper, the decoupling of the statistical analysis from the dynamical model allows us to restrict the analysis to a few selected variables and, at the same time, to produce estimates of additional ecological indicators (in our example: phenology, trophic efficiency, downward flux of particulate organic matter). This approach can easily be appended to existing operational systems to focus on dedicated users' requirements, at a small additional cost, as long as a reliabl","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140454618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization of physical properties of a coastal upwelling filament with evidence of enhanced submesoscale activity and transition from balanced to unbalanced motions in the Benguela upwelling region","authors":"Ryan P. North, Julia Dräger-Dietel, A. Griesel","doi":"10.5194/os-20-103-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-103-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We combine high-resolution in situ data (acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), Scanfish, and surface drifters) and remote sensing to investigate the physical characteristics of a major filament observed in the Benguela upwelling region. The 30–50 km wide and about 400 km long filament persisted for at least 40 d. Mixed-layer depths were less than 40 m in the filament and over 60 m outside of it. Observations of the Rossby number Ro from the various platforms provide the spatial distribution of Ro for different resolutions. Remote sensing focuses on geostrophic motions of the region related to the mesoscale eddies that drive the filament formation and thereby reveals |Ro|<0.1. Ship-based measurements in the surface mixed layer reveal 0.5<|Ro|<1, indicating the presence of unbalanced, ageostrophic motions. Time series of Ro from triplets of surface drifters trapped within the filament confirm these relatively large Ro values and show a high variability along the filament. A scale-dependent analysis of Ro, which relies on the second-order velocity structure function, was applied to the latter drifter group and to another drifter group released in the upwelling zone. The two releases explored the area nearly distinctly and simultaneously and reveal that at small scales (<15 km) Ro values are twice as large in the filament in comparison to its environment with Ro>1 for scales smaller than ∼500 m. This suggests that filaments are hotspots of ageostrophic dynamics, pointing to the presence of a forward energy cascade. The different dynamics indicated by our Ro analysis are confirmed by horizontal kinetic energy wavenumber spectra, which exhibit a power law k−α with α∼5/3 for wavelengths 2π/k smaller than a transition scale of 15 km, supporting significant submesoscale energy at scales smaller than the first baroclinic Rossby radius (Ro1∼30 km). The detected transition scale is smaller than those found in regions with less mesoscale eddy energy, consistent with previous studies. We found evidence for the processes which drive the energy transfer to turbulent scales. Positive Rossby numbers 𝒪(1) associated with cyclonic motion inhibit the occurrence of positive Ertel potential vorticity (EPV) and stabilize the water column. However, where the baroclinic component of EPV dominates, submesoscale instability analysis suggests that mostly gravitational instabilities occur and that symmetric instabilities may be important at the filament edges.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139603948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Altered Weddell Sea warm- and dense-water pathways in response to 21st-century climate change","authors":"C. Nissen, R. Timmermann, Mathias van Caspel, C. Wekerle","doi":"10.5194/os-20-85-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-85-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The transport of water masses with ocean circulation is a key component of the global climate system. In this context, the Filchner Trough in the southern Weddell Sea is critical, as it is a hotspot for the cross-shelf-break exchange of Dense Shelf Water and Warm Deep Water. We present results from Lagrangian particle tracking experiments in a global-ocean–sea-ice model (FESOM-1.4) which includes ice-shelf cavities and has eddy-permitting resolution on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. With backward and forward experiments, we assess changes between a present-day and a future (SSP5-8.5) time slice in the origin of waters reaching the Filchner Ice Shelf front and the fate of waters leaving it. We show that particles reaching the ice-shelf front from the open ocean originate from 173 % greater depths by 2100 (median; 776 m as compared to 284 m for the present day), while waters leaving the cavity towards the open ocean end up at 35 % shallower depths (550 m as compared to 850 m for the present day). Pathways of water leaving the continental shelf increasingly occur in the upper ocean, while the on-shelf flow of waters that might reach the ice-shelf cavity, i.e., at deeper layers, becomes more important by 2100. Simultaneously, median transit times between the Filchner Ice Shelf front and the continental shelf break decrease (increase) by 6 (9.5) months in the backward (forward) experiments. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the sensitivity of regional circulation patterns in the southern Weddell Sea to ongoing climate change, with direct implications for ice-shelf basal melt rates and local ecosystems.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139607364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Internal tides off the Amazon shelf – Part 1: The importance of the structuring of ocean temperature during two contrasted seasons","authors":"Fernand Assene, Ariane Koch-Larrouy, Isabelle Dadou, Michel Tchilibou, Guillaume Morvan, J. Chanut, A. Costa da Silva, V. Vantrepotte, D. Allain, T. Tran","doi":"10.5194/os-20-43-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-43-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The impact of internal and barotropic tides on the vertical and horizontal temperature structure off the Amazon River was investigated during two highly contrasted seasons (AMJ: April–May–June; ASO: August–September–October) over a 3-year period from 2013 to 2015. Twin regional simulations, with and without tides, were used to highlight the general effect of tides. The findings reveal that tides have a cooling effect on the ocean from the surface (∼ 0.3 ∘C) to above the thermocline (∼ 1.2 ∘C), while warming it up below the thermocline (∼ 1.2 ∘C). The heat budget analysis indicates that the vertical mixing is the dominant process driving temperature variations within the mixed layer, while it is associated with both horizontal and vertical advection to explain temperature variations below. The increased mixing in the simulations including tides is attributed to breaking of internal tides (ITs) on their generation sites over the shelf break and offshore along their propagation pathways. Over the shelf, mixing is driven by the dissipation of the barotropic tides. In addition, the vertical terms of the heat budget equation exhibit wavelength patterns typical of mode-1 IT. The study highlights the key role of tides and particularly how IT-related vertical mixing shapes the ocean temperature off the Amazon. Furthermore, we found that tides impact the interactions between the upper ocean interface and the overlying atmosphere. They contribute significantly to increasing the net heat flux between the atmosphere and the ocean, with a notable seasonal variation from 33.2 % in AMJ to 7.4 % in ASO seasons. This emphasizes the critical role of tidal dynamics in understanding regional-scale climate.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transport dynamics in a complex coastal archipelago","authors":"Elina Miettunen, L. Tuomi, A. Westerlund, H. Kanarik, K. Myrberg","doi":"10.5194/os-20-69-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-69-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Archipelago Sea (in the Baltic Sea) is characterised by thousands of islands of various sizes and steep gradients of the bottom topography. Together with the much deeper Åland Sea, the Archipelago Sea acts as a pathway to the water exchange between the neighbouring basins, Baltic proper and Bothnian Sea. We studied circulation and water transports in the Archipelago Sea using a new configuration of the NEMO 3D hydrodynamic model that covers the Åland Sea–Archipelago Sea region with a horizontal resolution of around 500 m. The results show that currents are steered by the geometry of the islands and straits and the bottom topography. Currents are highest and strongly aligned in the narrow channels in the northern part of the area, with the directions alternating between south and north. In more open areas, the currents are weaker with wider directional distribution. During our study period of 2013–2017, southward currents were more frequent in the surface layer. In the bottom layer, in areas deeper than 25 m, northward currents dominated in the southern part of the Archipelago Sea, while in the northern part southward and northward currents were more evenly represented. Due to the variation in current directions, both northward and southward transports occur. During our study period, the net transport in the upper 20 m layer was southward. Below 20 m depth, the net transport was southward at the northern edge and northward at the southern edge of the Archipelago Sea. There were seasonal and inter-annual variations in the transport volumes and directions in the upper layer. Southward transport was usually largest in spring and summer months, and northward transport was largest in autumn and winter months. The transport dynamics in the Archipelago Sea show different variabilities in the north and south. A single transect cannot describe water transport through the whole area in all cases. Further studies on the water exchange processes between the Baltic proper and the Bothnian Sea through the Archipelago Sea would benefit from using a two-way nested model set-up for the region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the drift of fish aggregating devices in the tropical Pacific Ocean","authors":"Philippe F. V. W. Frankemölle, P. Nooteboom, J. Scutt Phillips, L. Escalle, S. Nicol, E. van Sebille","doi":"10.5194/os-20-31-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-31-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The tropical Pacific Ocean is characterized by its dominant zonal flow, strong climate dependence on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and abundant tuna stocks. Tuna fisheries in the West and Central Pacific Ocean accounted for 55 % of the world-wide tuna catch in 2019 and are one of the main sources of income in many Pacific island nations. One of the dominant fishing methods in this region relies on the use of drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs): rafts with long underwater appendages (on average 50 m deep) that aggregate fish. Although currents such as the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and South Equatorial Current (SEC) in the tropical Pacific Ocean vary strongly with ENSO, little is known about the impact of this variability in flow on dFAD dispersion. In this study, virtual Lagrangian particles are tracked for the period 2006 to 2021 over the domain in a 3D hydrodynamic model and are advected in simulations with only surface flow, as well as simulations using a depth-averaged horizontal flow over the upper 50 m, representing virtual dFADs. Zonal displacements, eddy-like behaviour and ENSO variability are then studied for both types of virtual particles. It was found that virtual particles advected by surface flow only are displaced up to 35 % farther than virtual dFADs subjected to a depth-averaged flow, but no other major differences were found in dispersion patterns. The strongest correlations between ENSO and virtual dFAD dispersion for the assessed variables were found in the West Pacific Ocean, with Pearson correlation coefficients of up to 0.59 for virtual dFAD displacement. Connections between ENSO and eddy-like behaviour were found in the western part of the SEC, indicating more circulation and meandering during El Niño. These findings may be useful for improving sustainable deployment strategies during ENSO events and understanding the ocean processes driving the distribution of dFADs.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139618361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observations of strong turbulence and mixing impacting water exchange between two basins in the Baltic Sea","authors":"J. Muchowski, M. Jakobsson, L. Umlauf, L. Arneborg, B. Gustafsson, P. Holtermann, C. Humborg, C. Stranne","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1809-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1809-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Turbulent diapycnal mixing is important for the estuarine circulation between basins of the Baltic Sea as well as for its local ecosystems, in particular with regard to eutrophication and anoxic conditions. While the interior of the basins is overall relatively calm, stratified flow over steep bathymetric features is known as a source of strong turbulent mixing. Yet, current in situ observations often cannot capture the spatio-temporal development of dynamic and intermittent turbulent mixing related to overflows over rough bathymetry. We present observational oceanographic data together with openly accessible high-resolution bathymetry from a prototypical sill and an adjacent deep channel in the sparsely sampled Southern Quark located in the Åland Sea, connecting the northern Baltic Proper with the Bothnian Sea. Our data were acquired during two 1-week cruises on R/V Electra in February–March 2019 and 2020. We collected high-resolution broadband acoustic observations of turbulent mixing together with in situ microstructure profiler measurements, and current velocities from acoustic Doppler current profilers. We found that a temporally reversing non-tidal stratified flow over the steep bathymetric sill created a dynamic and extremely energetic environment. The observed flow reversed during both cruises on timescales of a few days. Saltier, warmer, and less oxygenated deep water south of the sill was partly blocked, the reversing flow was at times hydraulically controlled with hydraulic jumps occurring on both sides of the sill, and high spatial variability occurred in the surface layer on small scales. Dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy, vertical turbulent diffusivities, and vertical salt flux rates were increased by 3–4 orders of magnitude in the entire water column in the vicinity of the sill compared to reference stations not directly influenced by the overflow with average dissipation rates near the sill between 10−7 and 10−6 W kg−1, average vertical diffusivities of 0.001 m2 s−1 in the halocline and up to 0.1 m2 s−1 below the halocline, and average vertical salt flux rates around 0.01 g m−2 s−1 in the halocline and between 0.1 and 1 g m−2 s−1 below the halocline. We suggest, based on acoustic observations and in situ measurements, that the underlying mechanism for the highly increased mixing across the halocline is a combination of shear and topographic lee waves breaking at the halocline interface. We anticipate that the resulting deep- and surface-water modification in the Southern Quark directly impacts exchange processes between the Bothnian Sea and the northern Baltic Proper and that the observed mixing is likely important for oxygen and nutrient conditions in the Bothnian Sea.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138955911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Southern Weddell Sea surface freshwater flux modulated by icescape and atmospheric forcing","authors":"L. Stulic, R. Timmermann, S. Paul, Rolf Zentek, G. Heinemann, T. Kanzow","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1791-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1791-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Sea ice formation dominates surface salt forcing in the southern Weddell Sea. Brine rejected in the process of sea ice production results in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) that feeds the global overturning circulation and fuels the basal melt of the adjacent ice shelf. The strongest sea ice production rates are found in coastal polynyas, where steady offshore winds promote divergent ice movement during the freezing season. We used the Finite Element Sea ice–ice shelf–Ocean Model (FESOM) forced by output from the regional atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with 14 km horizontal resolution to investigate the role of polynyas for the surface freshwater flux of the southern Weddell Sea (2002–2017). The presence of stationary icescape features (i.e., fast-ice areas and grounded icebergs) can influence the formation of polynyas and, therefore, impact sea ice production. The representation of the icescape in our model is included by prescribing the position, shape and temporal evolution of a largely immobile ice mélange formed between the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) and a major grounded iceberg based on satellite data. We find that 70 % of the ice produced on the continental shelf of the southern Weddell Sea is exported from the region. While coastal polynyas cover 2 % of the continental shelf area, sea ice production within the coastal polynyas accounts for 17 % of the overall annual sea ice production (1509 km3). The largest contributions come from the Ronne Ice Shelf and Brunt Ice Shelf polynyas and polynyas associated with the ice mélange. Furthermore, we investigate the sensitivity of the polynya-based ice production to the (i) representation of the icescape and (ii) regional atmospheric forcing. Although large-scale atmospheric fields determine the sea ice production outside polynyas, both the treatment of the icescape and the regional atmospheric forcing are important for the regional patterns of sea ice production in polynyas. The representation of the ice mélange is crucial for the simulation of polynyas westward/eastward of it, which are otherwise suppressed/overestimated. Compared to using ERA-Interim reanalysis as an atmospheric forcing data set, using CCLM output reduces polynya-based ice production over the eastern continental shelf due to weaker offshore winds, yielding a more realistic polynya representation. Our results show that the location and not just the strength of the sea ice production in polynyas is a relevant parameter in setting the properties of the HSSW produced on the continental shelf, which in turn affects the basal melting of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139003335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term eddy modulation affects the meridional asymmetry of the halocline in the Beaufort Gyre","authors":"Jinling Lu, Ling Du, Shuhao Tao","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1773-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1773-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Against the background of wind-forcing change along with Arctic sea ice retreat, the mesoscale processes undergoing distinct variation in the Beaufort Gyre (BG) region are increasingly important to oceanic transport and energy cascades, and these changes subsequently put oceanic stratification into a new state. Here, the varying number and strength of eddies in the central Canada Basin (CB) and Chukchi–Beaufort continental slope are obtained based on mooring observations (2003–2018), altimetry measurements (1993–2019), and reanalysis data (1980–2020). In this paper, the variability in the BG halocline, representing the adjustment of stratification in the upper layer, is shown in order to analyse how variability occurs under changing mesoscale processes. We find that over almost the last 2 decades the halocline depth has deepened by ∼ 40 m in the south of the central gyre, while that in the north has deepened by ∼ 70 m according to multiple datasets. Surrounding the central gyre, the asymmetry of the halocline, with much steeper and deeper isopycnals over the southern continental slope, reduced after 2014. In the meantime, eddy activities in the upper layer from the southern margin of the BG to the abyssal plain have been enhanced. Moreover, the convergence of the eddy lateral flux has increased as the halocline structures on either side, which is at least 120 km from the central gyre, have reached a nearly identical and stable regime. It has been clarified that long-term dynamic eddy modulation through eddy fluxes, facilitating the freshwater redistribution, affects the meridional asymmetry of the BG halocline. Our results provide a better understanding of the eddy modulation processes and their influence on the halocline structure.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139003534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainties and discrepancies in the representation of recent storm surges in a non-tidal semi-enclosed basin: a hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea","authors":"Marvin Lorenz, U. Gräwe","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1753-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Extreme sea level events, such as storm surges, pose a threat to coastlines around the globe. Many tide gauges have been measuring the sea level and recording these extreme events for decades, some for over a century. The data from these gauges often serve as the basis for evaluating the extreme sea level statistics, which are used to extrapolate sea levels that serve as design values for coastal protection. Hydrodynamic models often have difficulty in correctly reproducing extreme sea levels and, consequently, extreme sea level statistics and trends. In this study, we generate a 13-member hindcast ensemble for the non-tidal Baltic Sea from 1979 to 2018 using the coastal ocean model GETM (General Estuarine Transport Model). In order to cope with mean biases in maximum water levels in the simulations, we include both simulations with and those without wind-speed adjustments in the ensemble. We evaluate the uncertainties in the extreme value statistics and recent trends of annual maximum sea levels. Although the ensemble mean shows good agreement with observations regarding return levels and trends, we still find large variability and uncertainty within the ensemble (95 % confidence levels up to 60 cm for the 30-year return level). We argue that biases and uncertainties in the atmospheric reanalyses, e.g. variability in the representation of storms, translate directly into uncertainty within the ensemble. The translation of the variability of the 99th percentile wind speeds into the sea level elevation is in the order of the variability of the ensemble spread of the modelled maximum sea levels. Our results emphasise that 13 members are insufficient and that regionally large ensembles should be created to minimise uncertainties. This should improve the ability of the models to correctly reproduce the underlying extreme value statistics and thus provide robust estimates of climate change-induced changes in the future.\u0000","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138589172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}