Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting最新文献

{"title":"Climate Change and Variability Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and Food Security","authors":"Abadi Berhane","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000240","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is a real natural phenomenon. It is affecting agricultural productivity, especially in rain-fed agriculture. This paper provides comprehensive review studies on the impacts of climate change on crop and water productivity, soil water balance and food security. Global total annual anthropogenic GHG emission was grown by 70% between 1970 and 2004. The IPCC developed four emission scenarios or storylines, A1, A2, B1 and B2 and three groups of family storylines of A1FI, A1T and A1B. Climate predictions indicate a warmer world within the next 50 years, maximum and minimum temperatures increasing causing substantial yield decrease in low latitude areas; whereas, projected rainfall has no distinct variability pattern. By 2080, arid and semi-arid lands in Africa will increase by 5% to 8%. Global Climate Change Models (GCMs) have been used for different climate change impact assessment; however, due to lack of accuracy at local or smaller spatial simulation capacity; regional climate modeling, are being used to downscale climate scenarios at local and smaller scale around the world. Therefore, identifying and assessing suitable adaptation and mitigation practices have paramount importance and contributions to improve crop productivity, reduce the negative impacts of climate change on water availability and productivity. Global and regional climate models have been used as decision support tools for climate change impact assessment, and hence, application of such models to generate present and future climate data outputs for crop modeling and climate change impact assessment on crop production, water balance and food security is very essential.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126635115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Incidence of Soot and Surface Boundary Layer Meteorology in Port Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria","authors":"V. Weli, J. Adegoke, B. Eyo","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000233","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric Black Carbon effects the hygroscopicity of cloud condensation nuclei, which in turn, effects atmospheric heating, stability, large scale circulation and overall cloud albedo. The study investigated the concentration level of soot and the surface boundary meteorology in Port Harcourt city. Sampling was done from five major different land use typologies with the aid of aeroset SPM 531, portable multi-gas monitor (Aeroqual 300 series) and Extech model 45160. Findings showed that the level of concentration of black carbon at different land use areas of Port Harcourt City was relatively very high with minimum mean value of 2.33 ± 1.66 μg/m3 and maximum mean value of 4.66 ± 5.43 (μg/m3) in the morning hours. For the evening period, the minimum mean of 1.25 ± 0.62 (μg/M3) and maximum mean of 4.75 ± 3.13 (μg/M3) For the morning study period, there was no significant difference in the level of concentration of soot at the respective land use areas, since p-values were (0.33 and 0.06); and there was significant difference in the air pollutant parameters (NO2 and CO) across the different land use areas, since p-values were (0.00 and 0.00). The meteorological predictors revealed that humidity (Beta=-0.002, p 5%) and wind speed (Beta=0.006, p 5%), temperature (Beta=-0.042, p>5%) and wind speed (Beta=0.006, p>5%). Enactment and implementation of laws against air pollution is strongly advocated.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127246564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effects of the Erosion of Biodiversity on Culture: The Experience of Erei People in Biase Local Government Area of Cross River State Nigeria","authors":"L. E. Ukam","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000224","url":null,"abstract":"To say that the destruction of biodiversity is same as the destruction and erosion of culture is not an over statement. Many cultures, as exemplified by the study area are closely linked to the biodiversity of the area. Observation from the research have shown that some bushes are named after some species of trees animals which are commonly found in such areas. Same goes for sections of water (lakes, streams or river) as revealed by the study. The method adopted for the study was survey inferential, based on observation, interview an questionnaire. Seventeen Erei villages were used for the study and 400 questionnaires were administered. The study revealed that some of the culture practice in Erie were abandoned due to the absence of the forest resources such as trees, peculiar animals or birds which have been chased away from the because of disforestation drivers are lumbering, fishing , farming, expansion of settlement due to increase in population, tourism etc. Ethno-medicine was equally exchanged for pharmaceutical because of the absence of trees, leaves, roots and some bushes for this practice. In order to protect culture, biodiversity must be preserved and protected and the environment properly managed.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123933698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risks of Abnormally Hot Days for the Population of Baku and Assessment of Efficiency of Possible Adaptation Actions","authors":"T. Ur, Hasanov Ms, Ahmad Jn, M. Af, Ahmadova Qb","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000228","url":null,"abstract":"The researchers conducted in the field of assessment of how climate change will alter human health risks is essential for preventing climate-related morbidity and mortality. The sensitiveness of people against unfavorable meteorological conditions with increase of continuation and repeating anomalous and dangerous hydro meteorological events was raised. For that reason provision of population and relevant organizations with results of researches may contribute to implementation of adaptation measures and reduce of possible risks connected with climate changes. In article the dependence between calls of ambulance and the maximum daily temperature is considered. The dependence between air temperature in summer months and population mortality is revealed.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129544971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Modeling of Monthly Rainfall in Selected Stations in Forest and Savannah Eco-climatic Regions of Nigeria","authors":"A. Akinbobola, E. Okogbue, Aderemi Kazeem Ayansola","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000226","url":null,"abstract":"Objective: Nigerian agriculture is mainly rain-fed and highly dependent on weather especially rainfall. Therefore modeling of monthly rainfall in some selected stations in Nigeria was undertaken in this study. \u0000Methodology: Data (rainfall) spanning a period of 30 years (1981-2010) for fourteen stations which were collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were utilized. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used. The accuracy and trend of time series was analyzed to give the monthly rainfall prediction for the succeeding year. The results showed that the model fitted into the data well and the stochastic seasonal fluctuation was successfully modeled. Rainfall was minimal in January, February, March and December over the selected stations in northern, Nigeria but increased progressively in strength and amount in the months of June, August and September over the stations in South west, and June and September over the stations in South -south, Nigeria. The highest rainfall of 230 mm was recorded in September over Warri and the lowest rainfall of 52 mm was recorded in August over Maiduguri. The rainfall recorded over the selected stations in South-south stations was visibly higher than what was recorded over the stations in the northern and the South-west stations. In northern Nigeria, the peak monthly mean rainfall amount of 91 mm was observed in August and rainfall amount was very low in January (0.0 mm), February (0.0 mm), March (0.0 mm) and December (0.0 mm). Over South-west, the Peak monthly mean rainfall amount of 215 mm was observed in June and September and rainfall amount was very low in January (0.0 mm) and December (0.0 mm). Over the stations in South-south, the Peak monthly mean rainfall amount of 325 mm was experienced on September and rainfall amount is very low in December (0.0 mm). \u0000Conclusion: The study concluded that Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was a proper method for modeling and predicting the monthly rainfall. The results are useful for forecasting the pattern of rainfall in the study area and provide information that would be helpful for decision makers in formulating policies to mitigate the problems of water resources management, soil erosion, flooding and drought.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134472340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatotherapy the Need for Novel Applications in Nigeria","authors":"P. Agan","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000223","url":null,"abstract":"Climatotherapy is the application of climatic elements for the treatments of skin diseases and infections which are vitiligo, atopic dermatitis, eczema etc. It also employs the utilization of springs, muds and clays of medicinal values through the inhalation, exposure and immersion for the treatment of chronic skin infections. Climatotherapy originated during the roman-empire and was a ritual practice amongst the Greeks, Babylonians and the Mesopotamians. It was founded by Hippocrates over 500 BC and has remain relevant since then even with the discovery and applications of pharmaceutical medicines. Climatotherapy also functions with other similar therapies which are balneotherapy, heliotherapy, fangotherapy, hydrotherapy, crenotherapy etc. The climate and geography of an area is the major determining factor in the application of spa therapy and climatotherapy and as such the most organized climatotherapy center is the Bulgaria coast of the black sea and the most widely visited and recognized climatotherapy center is the dead sea region in the middle east. Other areas of the world blessed with such sites for therapeutic use are the west Virginia springs, hot springs of Arkansas, Bedford’s springs of Pennsylvania, Safaga area of Egypt amongst others. The Nigerian environments which include her sedimentary and basements terrains are replete with potentials for climatotherapy, balneotherapy, hydrotherapy etc. from the Ikogosi, Zuwan Zafi Numan and the Yankari springs to the Niger delta formation waters and the caves and fountains that dots the entire landscape of Nigeria. These are novel areas for the application of alternative medicine using rich natural medicinal waters and lakes. This research is a review to enunciate and elucidates on the full potentials of Nigeria as a promising climatotherapy and other forms of spa therapy hub in Africa. There is a need for the utilization of these sites for climatotherapy and their documentations. Nigeria has the potentials from these sites to compete with the great dead-sea region of the middle-east and others. This review also discovered areas for empirical research on climatotherapy and spa therapy in Nigeria through collaborations and synergy between medical practitioners, dermatologists, climatologist, geologist and other experts who are interested in exploring the natural environments for alternative and sustainable therapies.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121873286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Clean Energy as a Compelling Measure in Achieving Lower Temperature: Evidence from Downscaled Temperatures of two Niger Delta Cities Nigeria","authors":"V. Weli, Ozabor Famous","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000222","url":null,"abstract":"The issues relating to the deleterious impacts of increase temperature has serious consequences on life supporting systems in the biosphere. This study determined the role of clean energy in lowering temperature in two Niger Delta Cities (Akure and Port-Harcourt) by using statistical downscaling technique. Expost-facto research design was adopted for the study. Mean air temperature data (1986-2015) were sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, and predictors data were accessed from HadCM3 archive covering 139 years and for two grid boxes (3,31 and 2,31). Statistical downscaling model version 4.2.9 was applied in downscaling analysis, while Paired‘t’ test was used for hypotheses testing. Results indicate that, predictors for temperature in Akure were MSLP (r0.75 & Pr0.63), r500 (r0.69 & Pr0.51), Rhum (r0.79 & Pr0.62) & temp (r0.86 & Pr0.72), while those for Port-Harcourt were MSLP (r0.73 & Pr0.61), r500 (r0.64 & Pr0.53), r850 (r0.68 & Pr0.52) and temp (r0.71 & Pr0.65). During model validation (2001-2015), the monthly sub-model performed better for both NCEP (Akure, r20.97, RMSE, 0.25; Port-Harcourt r20.95, RMSE, 0.34) for both locations. Downscaled mean temperature for both locations revealed that with clean technology (B2 emission-scenario), Akure temperature dropped by 2.10C, while that of Port Harcourt dropped by 0.970C. This paper therefore advocates that gas flaring in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria be stopped and relevant laws enforced against breakers of them. Also, urban greening and the use of solar and hydro energy to supply electricity should be encouraged at all levels of government.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125420264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing a Role of Stratospheric Processes in the Development of Weather of the Republic of Belarus Employing Monitoring Data","authors":"T. Shlender, V. Zhuchkevich, S. Umreika, A. Krasovski","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000219","url":null,"abstract":"The article aims at examining the latest trends in stratospheric processes, in particular, the differentiation of total ozone (TO) over the territory of the Republic of Belarus and their relationship with surface atmospheric circulation. As a result of the statistical analysis, the negative correlation link of TO and surface temperature, enabling to correct a medium-term weather forecast, is confirmed. Furthermore, the fact of violation of the correlation between TO and the surface temperature during the spring-summer ozone anomalies is revealed. The hypothesis of the influence of ozone mechanism on tropospheric circulation processes based on the specific case of the July hurricane of 2016 occurred over the territory of Belarus, is theoretically substantiated and practically illustrated. The hurricane has exemplified the partial effect of the stratosphere on the troposphere, demonstrating the influence of jet streams and large gradients in the field of TO on a height of the tropopause. Thus, one has been positive to conclude that summer sharp changes in TO can lead to strong tropopause variations along with the appearance of powerful jet streams in the gap zones resulted in deterioration of the weather conditions in the lower troposphere.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125119974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Review on the Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Climate Changes in Ethiopia","authors":"Melees Worku, Samuel Sahile","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000218","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is approximately positively the preponderance difficult and tricky environmental problem opposite the earth today. Outstanding to El Nino Southern Oscillation effect on climates especially mounting stage of temperature, heat intensity, changed level of precipitation, seasonal droughts and cyclones, floods and forest fires become clear evidence that the climate change Africa (UNFCCC, 2007). The review was aimed the impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate changes especially temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours Ethiopia. The negative impact of ENSO in Amhara Region, the concentration of precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours disturbed. El Nino Southern Oscillation the harmful property of climate change, this impact on agriculture production such as socio-economic, cultural, political, biological, ecological and institutional that shapes the humanenvironment interactions. El Nino cause comprehensive droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were following by food shortage and sustaining disarray that resulted in fundamental secession, and a massive program of population redeployment. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate unpredictability cause by repeated El Nino events, were changes in the ethnic composition of positive Ethiopian region and changes in the geographic pattern of inhabitant’s growth Climate El Nino Ethiopia immigration Cartographic symbol.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122295768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards Mapping Suitable Areas for Weather Modification in East Africa Community","authors":"J. Ngaina, N. J. Muthama, Ininda Joseph Mwalichi, Opere Alfred Owuor","doi":"10.4172/2332-2594.1000217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-2594.1000217","url":null,"abstract":"In order to map suitable areas for weather modification in East Africa Community (EAC), investigations were performed to determine spatio-temporal variability and relationship of aerosol, clouds and precipitation during March- April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND). Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Hybrid Single- Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and Multivariate Regression Analysis (MRA) were used. Identification of near homogeneous zones of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Fine Mode Fraction (FMF), Cloud Top and 3B42 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) yielded 13 (14), 20 (18), 11 (10) and 16 (17) significant Principal Components (PCs) for MAM (OND) with explained variance greater than 57%. Aerosols and clouds had positive relationship with precipitation in areas with strong factor loadings. MRA indicated independence of variables used and normality in the model residuals. Backward trajectory analysis indicated differences in origins of transported particles in the atmosphere with strong vertical mixing inlands with mixed aerosols resulting due to mountain blocking systems accounted for enhanced rainfall. Enhanced rainfall was attributed to highly varied AOD and unaffected FMF in the atmosphere. Locations east and west EAC with mean temperatures greater than -10°C were unsuitable for cloud seeding while central EAC region along the great rift-valley and coastal Tanzania exhibited optimal temperatures suitable for cloud seeding. Successful precipitation enhancement will increase available fresh water sources and thus alleviate existing and projected water stress.","PeriodicalId":194677,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115825767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}