Clean Energy as a Compelling Measure in Achieving Lower Temperature: Evidence from Downscaled Temperatures of two Niger Delta Cities Nigeria

V. Weli, Ozabor Famous
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Abstract

The issues relating to the deleterious impacts of increase temperature has serious consequences on life supporting systems in the biosphere. This study determined the role of clean energy in lowering temperature in two Niger Delta Cities (Akure and Port-Harcourt) by using statistical downscaling technique. Expost-facto research design was adopted for the study. Mean air temperature data (1986-2015) were sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, and predictors data were accessed from HadCM3 archive covering 139 years and for two grid boxes (3,31 and 2,31). Statistical downscaling model version 4.2.9 was applied in downscaling analysis, while Paired‘t’ test was used for hypotheses testing. Results indicate that, predictors for temperature in Akure were MSLP (r0.75 & Pr0.63), r500 (r0.69 & Pr0.51), Rhum (r0.79 & Pr0.62) & temp (r0.86 & Pr0.72), while those for Port-Harcourt were MSLP (r0.73 & Pr0.61), r500 (r0.64 & Pr0.53), r850 (r0.68 & Pr0.52) and temp (r0.71 & Pr0.65). During model validation (2001-2015), the monthly sub-model performed better for both NCEP (Akure, r20.97, RMSE, 0.25; Port-Harcourt r20.95, RMSE, 0.34) for both locations. Downscaled mean temperature for both locations revealed that with clean technology (B2 emission-scenario), Akure temperature dropped by 2.10C, while that of Port Harcourt dropped by 0.970C. This paper therefore advocates that gas flaring in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria be stopped and relevant laws enforced against breakers of them. Also, urban greening and the use of solar and hydro energy to supply electricity should be encouraged at all levels of government.
清洁能源是实现低温的有力措施:来自尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲两个城市降温的证据
与温度升高的有害影响有关的问题对生物圈中的生命维持系统产生了严重后果。本研究通过统计降尺度技术确定了清洁能源在尼日尔三角洲两个城市(阿库雷和哈科特港)的降温作用。本研究采用事后研究设计。1986-2015年的平均气温数据来自尼日利亚气象局,预测数据来自HadCM3档案,涵盖139年和两个网格框(3,31和2,31)。降尺度分析采用4.2.9版统计降尺度模型,假设检验采用配对检验。结果表明,Akure的温度预测因子为MSLP (r0.75 & Pr0.63)、r500 (r0.69 & Pr0.51)、rum (r0.79 & Pr0.62)和温度(r0.86 & Pr0.72), Port-Harcourt的温度预测因子为MSLP (r0.73 & Pr0.61)、r500 (r0.64 & Pr0.53)、r850 (r0.68 & Pr0.52)和温度(r0.71 & Pr0.65)。在模型验证期间(2001-2015),月度子模型对NCEP (Akure, r20.97, RMSE, 0.25;Port-Harcourt r20.95, RMSE, 0.34)。缩小后的两个地点的平均温度显示,使用清洁技术(B2排放情景),阿库尔的温度下降了2.10摄氏度,而哈科特港的温度下降了0.970摄氏度。因此,本文主张制止尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲地区的天然气燃除,并对违反者实施相关法律。此外,各级政府应鼓励城市绿化和利用太阳能和水力发电。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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