{"title":"Lockdown and GDP Contraction in India: A National Income Perspective","authors":"G. Basak, P. Das, S. Sarkar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3644401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644401","url":null,"abstract":"The present study derives an estimate of the contraction of the GDP in India during the lockdown period on the basis of the fall in the components of expenditure of the national income accounts. On the lower side the contraction is estimated to be around Rs. 7211.42 Billion per month at the constant 2011-12 prices during the total lockdown period in this quarter which is 58.08% of the GDP forecast had there been no lockdown. This translates into Rs. 10341.17 Billion per month at current prices. One important component of this study is the derivation of an estimate of the additional fall in the private final consumption expenditure of a large chunk of the Indian population who lost their means of livelihood during the lockdown period. This is called unemployment effect in the paper and is estimated by a method based on a counterfactual from the 68th Round of National Sample Survey data. The unemployment effect is found to be Rs. 712.59 Billion at 2011-12 constant prices for the quarter, which is a decline of 48% in private final consumption. This translates into a fall of Rs. 1021.54 Billion at current prices. The methodology proposed here is particularly useful for the developing countries where the extent of transactions are cashless/ digitized limited. The estimate of the contraction is, however, based on the currently available data, it can further be replaced by a better estimate as and when fresh data is made available.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122036963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Microfinance Can Raise Incomes: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in China","authors":"Shu Cai, A. Park, Sangui Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3670721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670721","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluates the impact of a randomized control trial (RCT) in China that introduced externally funded village credit funds in poor, rural villages. In contrast to recent RCT-based studies that have failed to find evidence of significant increases in income from microfinance interventions, we find that the Chinese program significantly raises household income and reduces poverty. We explore possible explanations as to why the estimated impacts may be greater in China: lump-sum repayments, lower interest rates, less access to formal credit before the program, and greater potential returns from off-farm employment opportunities that are credit-constrained.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129791180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Submission to the 2019 New Zealand Review of Retirement Income Policies","authors":"R. Baskerville","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3643252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3643252","url":null,"abstract":"This submission focuses on why assessments of the affordability of New Zealand national superannuation needs to include robust statistical data from both <br><br>i. Recent NZ statistics and <br><br>ii. International jurisdictions with appropriately parallel (ethnic) populations <br>concerning longevity projections. <br><br>Longevity has plateaued and future Retirement Income Policies should not be based on erroneous data of increasing longevity.<br><br>It is the objective of this submission to provide a summary of such data.<br>Implications: Recognizing that there is far more affordability of the current national superannuation than that recently promoted would support not only <br><br>a) retaining a 65-year age eligibility; but also <br><br>b) a new policy of increasing the % of weekly wage set for national superannuation; from the current level of around 40% of the average wage back towards the “80%” when it was first introduced.<br><br>These two aspects would also assist in reducing the creep of societal inequality, implicit in proposals to raise the age eligibility.<br>","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126864634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Third Wave of Technological Unemployment","authors":"Fabio D’Orlando","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187227","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to discuss possible solutions to the “third wave” of technological unemployment and their main drawbacks. The process has just started and will only be fully realized in the future, but its main novelty is already well known and concerns robots (and artificial intelligence) entering the production process. Robots do not simply increase labor productivity, in cooperation with humans, but can totally substitute labor, making it possible to produce commodities without the use of human input. This in turn generates technological unemployment. Past “compensation” theories have argued that technological unemployment could be reabsorbed thanks to wage reduction and demand (and production) increase. But these theories have ignored robots. If robots are more productive and less expensive than humans, wage reduction may be insufficient due to the minimum wage subsistence boundary; and, in any case, an increase in demand would only determine an increase in the production of goods by robots alone, without any impact on human employment. Meanwhile, the resulting mass unemployment will require redistributive policies. The paper discusses the most relevant among these policies, emphasizing their drawbacks and their unwanted implications, and proposes an alternative rooted in Tietenberg’s tradable permits approach.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130588873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quality of Life: Issues and Challenges in Measurement","authors":"S. Aggarwal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2965569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2965569","url":null,"abstract":"Questions have always been raised about the measurement of National Income and its use as an indicator of economic welfare. These questions were referred in 2008 by President of France to the commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress headed by Prof Stiglitz for their recommendations. Among many other issues, the commission did focus on a better measure of economic performance and well-being. It emphasized that it is important that measurement now shifts from economic production to people’s well-being and recommended that both level and distribution of consumption and income and not production should be the main focus of well-being evaluation and care may be taken to also include non-market activities. The commission also looked at the definition and the importance of the measurement of quality of life, which was described to be broader than the concept of economic production and wellbeing. They discussed different approaches and different measures of quality of life including the objective features; e.g. health, education, political voice and governance, etc.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127854335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Austerity, Inequality, and Private Debt Overhang","authors":"Mathias Klein, R. Winkler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2906221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2906221","url":null,"abstract":"Using panel data of 17 OECD countries for 1980-2011, we find that the distributional consequences of fiscal consolidations depend significantly on the level of private indebtedness. Austerity leads to a strong and persistent increase in income inequality during periods of private debt overhang. In contrast, there are no discernible distributional effects when private debt is low. This result is robust to alternative identifications of fiscal consolidations, to different ways of defining periods of private debt overhang, and to controlling for the state of the business cycle. We explore different channels through which our findings can be rationalized.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129703906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Worry-Free Inflation-Indexing for Sovereigns - How Governments Can Effectively Deliver Inflation-Indexed Returns to Their Citizens and Retirees","authors":"Z. Bodie, Joseph A. Cherian, Wee Kang Chua","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1855824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1855824","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we explore how small countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan, can offer their aging populations the means to protect their retirement income against inflation without the governments directly issuing inflation-protected bonds. While inflation swaps are a well-known means by which to attain this, we show how an inflation index-replication strategy is also feasible. With this ability to provide inflation-adjusted returns, governments, pension funds, and other institutions can begin to offer a broad suite of inflation-indexed products, ranging from retirement annuities to inflation-linked insurance policies. This will improve the functioning of national pension systems, and hence the welfare of retirees. The added benefit of such structures is that they allow governments to broadly replicate their local Consumer Price Index (CPI) returns without disrupting their traditional financing structures. Given the potential of reinsuring national default risks across borders via currency and credit default swap facilities at the federal level, there is a unique role for the government in this process as the reinsurer of last resort.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125415984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy in a Post Keynesian Macrodynamic Model of Inflation and Output Targeting","authors":"M. Setterfield, Gilberto Tadeu Lima","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1833844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1833844","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the debate about whether or not inflation targeting is compatible with Post Keynesian economics. It does so by developing a model that takes into account the potentially inflationary consequences of interest rate manipulations. Evaluations of the macroeconomic implications of this so-called cost channel of monetary policy are common in the mainstream literature. But this literature uses supply-determined macro models and provides standard optimizing microfoundations for the various ways in which the interest rate can affect mark-ups, prices and ultimately the form of the Phillips curve. Our purpose is to study the implications of different Phillips curves, each embodying the cost channel and derived from Post Keynesian, cost-based-pricing microfoundations, in a monetary-production economy. We focus on the impact of these Phillips curves on macroeconomic stability and the consequent efficacy of inflation and output targeting. Ultimately, our results suggest that the presence of the cost channel is of less significance than the general orientation of the policy regime, and corroborate earlier finding that, in a monetary-production economy, more orthodox policy regimes are inimical to macro stabilization.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"147 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134161937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Distribution of Top Incomes in Five Anglo-Saxon Countries Over the Twentieth Century","authors":"A. Atkinson, A. Leigh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1631072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1631072","url":null,"abstract":"Taxation data have been used to create long-run series for the distribution of top incomes in quite a number of countries. Most of these studies have focused on the national experience of individual countries, but we can also learn from cross-country comparisons. Comparative analysis is therefore the next stage in the research program. At the same time, we know from other fields that there are dangers in simply pooling all available time series, without regard to the specific nature of data and reality. In this paper, we therefore adopt an intermediate approach, taking five Anglo-Saxon countries that have relatively similar backgrounds and tax systems: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US. The first part of the paper tackles the challenge of comparability of income-tax based estimates across countries and across time. The second part summarizes the evidence about top income shares. Across these five countries, the shares of the very richest exhibit a strikingly similar pattern, falling in the three decades after World War II, before rising sharply from the mid-1970s onwards. The share of the top 1 percent is highly correlated across Anglo-Saxon countries, more so than the share of the next 4 percent. The third part of the paper looks at the relationship between taxes and top income shares. Controlling for country and year fixed effects, we find that a reduction in the marginal tax rate on wage income is associated with an increase in the share of the top percentile group. Likewise, a fall in the marginal tax rate on investment income (based on a lagged moving average) is associated with a rise in the share of the top percentile group.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128939638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hans Jarle Kind, Marko Koethenbuerger, Guttorm Schjelderup
{"title":"On Revenue and Welfare Dominance of Ad Valorem Taxes in Two-Sided Markets","authors":"Hans Jarle Kind, Marko Koethenbuerger, Guttorm Schjelderup","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1498316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1498316","url":null,"abstract":"A benchmark result in public economics is that it is possible to increase both tax revenue and welfare by making a monopoly subject to ad valorem taxes rather than unit taxes. We show that such revenue and welfare dominance does not hold in two-sided markets.","PeriodicalId":194603,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Income Policy (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125835247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}