{"title":"The ‘Pact for the Future’","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01438-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01438-z","url":null,"abstract":"A new start for multilateralism is what UN Member States are focusing on, but achieving it won’t be easy and won’t be enough to deliver sustainable development. Addressing the multifaceted root causes of discrimination, inequalities and injustice across scales should be the priority.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 9","pages":"1081-1081"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01438-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142273362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Livia Cabernard, Stephan Pfister, Stefanie Hellweg
{"title":"Biodiversity impacts of recent land-use change driven by increases in agri-food imports","authors":"Livia Cabernard, Stephan Pfister, Stefanie Hellweg","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01433-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01433-4","url":null,"abstract":"Land-use change such as the conversion of natural habitat to agricultural land has been a major driver of global biodiversity loss, prompting efforts at biodiversity restoration. However, restoration measures in certain areas can shift the detrimental biodiversity impacts elsewhere through the outsourcing of agri-food supply chains to biodiverse regions. This study examines the link between biodiversity impacts from land-use change and shifts in global supply chains from 1995 to 2022 by introducing a marginal allocation into multiregional input–output analysis. Almost 80% of recent global land-use change impacts were associated with increased agri-food exports from Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia + Pacific (excluding China). Conversely, increased imports to China, the United States, Europe and the Middle East accounted for almost 60% of recent global land-use change impacts from a consumption perspective, despite decreasing domestic impacts through restoration. Decreasing biodiversity impacts in temperate and arid regions have been partially achieved by outsourcing agri-food supply to tropical biodiversity hotspots. This results in a cumulated global extinction rate (1.4% global potential species loss since 1995), exceeding the planetary boundary by about fifty times, thus highlighting the need for policies incentivizing habitat protection in tropical regions and sustainable sourcing in agri-food supply chains. Land-use change can lead to detrimental biodiversity impacts through the conversion of natural habitat to agricultural land. This study examines the association between biodiversity impacts from land-use change and global agri-food supply chains.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1512-1524"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01433-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Honglin Zhong, Yanxian Li, Jiaying Ding, Benedikt Bruckner, Kuishuang Feng, Laixiang Sun, Christina Prell, Yuli Shan, Klaus Hubacek
{"title":"Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options","authors":"Honglin Zhong, Yanxian Li, Jiaying Ding, Benedikt Bruckner, Kuishuang Feng, Laixiang Sun, Christina Prell, Yuli Shan, Klaus Hubacek","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01428-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01428-1","url":null,"abstract":"Achieving European Green Deal (EGD) targets for carbon removal and ecological restoration would reduce agricultural and forestry production within the European Union yet simultaneously extend ecosystem impacts elsewhere. Here we quantify such spillover impacts by coupling an extended multi-regional input–output analysis with an agro-ecological zones model. We find that EGD’s agricultural and forestry targets set for 2030 could result in a 23.9 Mha increase in demand for agricultural land outside the European Union, which in turn would lead to an increase in land-use-related carbon emissions by 758.9 MtCO2-equivalent (244.8% of EGD’s carbon removal target in the land, land-use-change and forestry sectors) and a biodiversity loss of 3.86 million mean species abundance loss. Such spillover impacts far exceed the ecological benefits from EGD conservation-based import policies, such as promoting deforestation-free products and phasing out food-based biofuel. We then propose three options beyond the primary targets of the EGD with the aim to mitigate such spillover impacts. The assessment of these options reveals the critical role of reducing meat and dairy consumption, highlighting the impact of consumer behaviour on environmental outcomes. This raises questions about public awareness, willingness to change diets and the role of policy in influencing consumer behaviours. Achieving European Green Deal targets may benefit the European Union ecologically but increase global environmental impacts. This study quantifies such external impacts and suggests ways to minimize them","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1501-1511"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01428-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Jago, K. F. V. A. Elliott, C. Tovar, M. Soto Gomez, T. Starnes, W. Abebe, C. Alexander, A. Antonelli, L. Baldaszti, G. Cerullo, C. Cockel, D. Collison, C. Cowell, R. Delgado, S. Demissew, A. Devenish, K. Dhanjal-Adams, M. Diazgranados, A. G. Drucker, M. E. Dulloo, B. M. Erland, S. Fadika, W. Huang, K. Inwood, S. K. Jones, B. B. Klitgaard, A. Lebbie, F. K. S. Lim, E. Lulekal, C. Morales-Rozo, F. Niang, E. Nic Lughadha, R. P. Oliveira, A. Ortega-Argueta, S. Pironon, J. F. Plummer, M. Ramirez, P. Ryan, F. J. Simbiano, R. J. Smith, P. C. Stevenson, A. C. Treydte, J. E. Victor, O. Weber, C. Williams, C. T. Yohanna, O. M. Grace, I. Darbyshire, J. S. Borrell
{"title":"Adapting wild biodiversity conservation approaches to conserve agrobiodiversity","authors":"S. Jago, K. F. V. A. Elliott, C. Tovar, M. Soto Gomez, T. Starnes, W. Abebe, C. Alexander, A. Antonelli, L. Baldaszti, G. Cerullo, C. Cockel, D. Collison, C. Cowell, R. Delgado, S. Demissew, A. Devenish, K. Dhanjal-Adams, M. Diazgranados, A. G. Drucker, M. E. Dulloo, B. M. Erland, S. Fadika, W. Huang, K. Inwood, S. K. Jones, B. B. Klitgaard, A. Lebbie, F. K. S. Lim, E. Lulekal, C. Morales-Rozo, F. Niang, E. Nic Lughadha, R. P. Oliveira, A. Ortega-Argueta, S. Pironon, J. F. Plummer, M. Ramirez, P. Ryan, F. J. Simbiano, R. J. Smith, P. C. Stevenson, A. C. Treydte, J. E. Victor, O. Weber, C. Williams, C. T. Yohanna, O. M. Grace, I. Darbyshire, J. S. Borrell","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01427-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01427-2","url":null,"abstract":"The global biodiversity crisis in agriculture is overlooked compared with that in wild systems. This must change if we are to safeguard domesticated plant diversity and meet global sustainable development and biodiversity goals. In this Perspective, we review tools developed through decades of wild biodiversity conservation and provide a framework for adapting and applying these for agrobiodiversity conservation. We focus on challenges and solutions around monitoring the status of agrobiodiversity, prioritizing its conservation, conserving it in situ and financing to ensure these actions can be maintained long term. Conserving global agrobiodiversity supports wider conservation efforts and is crucial for achieving food security, climate resilience and a sustainable future. The global biodiversity crisis impacting agriculture is overlooked compared with wild systems. This Perspective presents an overview of the the tools developed for wild biodiversity conservation and provides a framework to adapt these for agrobiodiversity conservation to better address sustainability goals.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1385-1394"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Philip Wollburg, Yannick Markhof, Thomas Bentze, Giulia Ponzini
{"title":"Substantial impacts of climate shocks in African smallholder agriculture","authors":"Philip Wollburg, Yannick Markhof, Thomas Bentze, Giulia Ponzini","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01411-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01411-w","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is affecting the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as droughts or floods, which result in loss and damage to people, crops and infrastructure. Global data on loss and damage used in research, policy and media primarily come from macrostatistics based on disaster inventories. Here, we propose a different approach, based on survey microdata. We harmonize data from 120,000 agricultural fields in six African countries for a period from 2008 to 2019 and quantify crop production losses related to climate shocks. We find substantial damages which affect around 35% of plots and reduce national crop production by 29% on average. The economic impacts are greater than the global disaster data suggest. The economic losses resulting from droughts and flood alone are US$5.1 billion higher than reported in disaster inventories, affecting between 145 and 170 million people. The difference stems mostly from smaller and less severe but frequent adverse events that go under-reported or undetected in disaster inventories and therefore elude macrostatistics and reporting. The findings have implications for measurement and policies related to loss and damage and disaster risk reduction. Estimating losses and damages caused by climate change is central to developing equitable climate policy. Microdata surveys have the potential to expose losses and damages among smallholder farmers that may otherwise be overlooked.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1525-1534"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Kaufmann, Michael Wicki, Stefan Wittwer, Jake Stephan
{"title":"Democratic discrepancies in urban sustainable development","authors":"David Kaufmann, Michael Wicki, Stefan Wittwer, Jake Stephan","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01425-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01425-4","url":null,"abstract":"Cities are critical for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Their urban sustainable development (USD) plans and policies cover a wide range of issues, such as biodiversity protection, transportation or poverty reduction. Yet, such policy-making may lack democratic legitimacy if these policies are out of step with the demands and concerns of residents. Considering this, the present study compares residents’ preferences about USD policy issues with the priorities set out in existing USD policy plans. We scrutinized the preferences of 5,800 residents across eight European cities through the application of survey experiments and simultaneously examined 166 existing USD policy plans from these cities and compared them with the survey results. Our findings indicate an on average high acceptance of USD (72.61%) but with substantial democratic discrepancies: while USD policy plans predominantly prioritize issues, such as biodiversity, education and transportation, residents expressed preferences for issues linked to their essential and everyday needs, such as cost of living, public health and poverty. These democratic discrepancies between residents’ priorities and the content of USD policy plans highlight the necessity of securing basic human needs as integral aspects of USD to foster a more profound and democratically supported urban socio-ecological sustainability transformation. This study finds that residents in European cities prioritize urban sustainable development policies that address basic human needs such as the cost of living and poverty alleviation, while existing policies focus more on issues such as biodiversity and public transport. These discrepancies suggest that sustainability policies may lack democratic legitimacy.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1409-1418"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01425-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lennart Quante, Sven N. Willner, Christian Otto, Anders Levermann
{"title":"Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor","authors":"Lennart Quante, Sven N. Willner, Christian Otto, Anders Levermann","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01430-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01430-7","url":null,"abstract":"Temperature and precipitation variability and extremes impact production globally. These production disruptions will change with future warming, impacting consumers locally as well as remotely through supply chains. Due to a potentially nonlinear economic response, trade impacts are difficult to quantify; empirical assessments rather focus on the direct inequality impacts of weather extremes. Here, simulating global economic interactions of profit-maximizing firms and utility-optimizing consumers, we assess risks to consumption resulting from weather-induced production disruptions along supply chains. Across countries, risks are highest for middle-income countries due to unfavourable trade dependence and seasonal climate exposure. We also find that risks increase in most countries under future climate change. Global warming increases consumer risks locally and through supply chains. However, high-income consumers face the greatest risk increase. Overall, risks are heterogeneous regarding income within and between countries, such that targeted local and global resilience building may reduce them. It is hard to study weather-induced impacts on consumption as supply-chain effects cause a nonlinear economic response. Here consumption risks due to weather-induced production disruptions along supply chains are assessed considering income inequality within and across countries.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1419-1428"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01430-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maximilian Nicolaus Burger, Donia Mahabadi, Björn Vollan
{"title":"Technology-minded climate delegates support less stringent climate policies","authors":"Maximilian Nicolaus Burger, Donia Mahabadi, Björn Vollan","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01434-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01434-3","url":null,"abstract":"To transform global policies and actions on climate change, Meadows’ leverage framework highlights the need to identify deep leverage points such as mindset and paradigm shifts. Our analysis focuses on the mindset of climate delegates regarding the paradigm that technological innovation can achieve the 1.5 °C target without systemic changes. Surveying delegates from the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reveals that respondents believing in technological solutions indeed support less stringent climate policies. Within high-level conferences devoted to climate or sustainability action, differences in views can lead to differences in policy. This study surveyed how delegates at COP24 perceived the efficacy of technology and climate targets.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1405-1408"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Min Zheng, Zhetai Hu, Tao Liu, Mathieu Sperandio, Eveline I. P. Volcke, Zhiyao Wang, Xiaodi Hao, Haoran Duan, Siegfried E. Vlaeminck, Kangning Xu, Zhiqiang Zuo, Jianhua Guo, Xia Huang, Glen T. Daigger, Willy Verstraete, Mark C. M. van Loosdrecht, Zhiguo Yuan
{"title":"Pathways to advanced resource recovery from sewage","authors":"Min Zheng, Zhetai Hu, Tao Liu, Mathieu Sperandio, Eveline I. P. Volcke, Zhiyao Wang, Xiaodi Hao, Haoran Duan, Siegfried E. Vlaeminck, Kangning Xu, Zhiqiang Zuo, Jianhua Guo, Xia Huang, Glen T. Daigger, Willy Verstraete, Mark C. M. van Loosdrecht, Zhiguo Yuan","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01423-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01423-6","url":null,"abstract":"The ongoing paradigm shift in sewage management from pollution control to resource recovery is an integral part of a circular economy. Efforts have traditionally concentrated on the recovery of organic carbon as bioenergy, and nitrogen and phosphorus as nutrients. In the past decade, technologies have been developed to recover high-value commodities. Simultaneously, innovative processes have been proposed to produce chemical agents that can be immediately reused in the sewage system to facilitate sewage management. This Review evaluates these latest developments and the underpinning scientific discoveries, identifies the key challenges, and outlines a roadmap towards greener and more sustainable sewage management. The paradigm shift in sewage management from pollution control to resource recovery is highly desired from a circular economy perspective. This Review presents the latest developments and the key challenges in this field and outlines a roadmap towards greener and more sustainable sewage management.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1395-1404"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Julia S. Caserto, Lyndsey Wright, Corey Reese, Matthew Huang, Mary K. Salcedo, Stephanie Fuchs, Sunghwan Jung, Scott H. McArt, Minglin Ma
{"title":"Ingestible hydrogel microparticles improve bee health after pesticide exposure","authors":"Julia S. Caserto, Lyndsey Wright, Corey Reese, Matthew Huang, Mary K. Salcedo, Stephanie Fuchs, Sunghwan Jung, Scott H. McArt, Minglin Ma","doi":"10.1038/s41893-024-01432-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-024-01432-5","url":null,"abstract":"Bees provide crucial pollination services for crop cultivation, contributing billions of dollars to the global agricultural economy. However, exposure to pesticides such as neonicotinoids represents a major problem for bee health, necessitating strategies that can improve agricultural sustainability and pollinator health. Here we report a simple and scalable solution, through ingestible hydrogel microparticles (IHMs), which can capture neonicotinoids in vitro and in the bee gastrointestinal tract to mitigate the harmful effects of pesticides. Using the common eastern bumblebee (Bombus impatiens) as a model species and the neonicotinoid imidacloprid, we demonstrated by means of lethal and sublethal assays the substantial benefits of IHM treatments. Under lethal exposure of imidacloprid, bumblebees that received IHM treatment exhibited a 30% increase in survival relative to groups without IHM treatment. After a sublethal exposure of 5 ng, IHM treatment resulted in improved feeding motivation and a 44% increase in the number of bees that engaged in locomotor activity. Wingbeat frequency was significantly lower after a single 5 or 10 ng imidacloprid dose; however, IHM treatment improved wingbeat frequency. Overall, the IHMs improved bumblebee health, and with further optimization have the potential to benefit apiculture and reduce risk during crop pollination by managed bees. Bees are important components of sustainable agriculture through their pollination services, however, they are susceptible to pesticide toxicity. This study presents an ingestible hydrogel microparticle technology that can lessen the detrimental effects of toxicity from the imidacloprid pesticide.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"7 11","pages":"1441-1451"},"PeriodicalIF":25.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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