Nature ecology & evolution最新文献

Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects. 未观察到的混杂因素无法解释对避免砍伐森林的碳项目的过度信贷。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03049-7

Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, George Nicholson, David Coomes, Paul J Ferraro, Tom Swinfield, Julia P G Jones

{"title":"Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects.","authors":"Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, George Nicholson, David Coomes, Paul J Ferraro, Tom Swinfield, Julia P G Jones","doi":"10.1038/s41559-026-03049-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03049-7","url":null,"abstract":"In ecology and conservation, a growing number of studies seek to draw causal inference using quasi-experimental designs. Despite the risk of omitted variable bias from such designs, the degree to which results are sensitive to unobserved confounders is seldom assessed. Here, to demonstrate the value of such sensitivity analyses, we use the controversy surrounding whether projects aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) overestimated their effectiveness (resulting in too many credits being sold). Verifiers of REDD+ credits have argued that independent quasi-experimental analyses of REDD+ projects are flawed because they omit site-specific drivers of deforestation. If these drivers also affect where REDD+ projects are established (that is, projects target areas facing threat), omitting them will tend to underestimate the deforestation that projects avoided. We revisit a global sample of 44 REDD+ projects and show that while some projects reduced deforestation, over-crediting was rife. Crucially, we explore the sensitivity of these results to unobserved confounders and demonstrate that unobserved local drivers of both deforestation and REDD+ locations are unlikely to fully account for reported over-crediting. Assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounders remains uncommon in ecology and conservation but should become standard practice where causal conclusions are based on controlling for confounders.","PeriodicalId":18835,"journal":{"name":"Nature ecology & evolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147840416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A stress test for unobserved confounders. 对未观察到的混杂因素进行压力测试。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03078-2

Erin O Sills, Subhrendu K Pattanayak

引用次数: 0

Costs and benefits of primate group size shift under varying climate regimes. 灵长类动物群体规模的成本和收益在不同气候条件下发生变化。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03063-9

引用次数: 0

Environmental fluctuations alter the competitive trade-offs of group size in a social primate. 环境波动改变了社会性灵长类动物群体规模的竞争权衡。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03048-8

Odd T Jacobson, Margaret C Crofoot, Genevieve E Finerty, Susan E Perry, Brendan J Barrett

{"title":"Environmental fluctuations alter the competitive trade-offs of group size in a social primate.","authors":"Odd T Jacobson, Margaret C Crofoot, Genevieve E Finerty, Susan E Perry, Brendan J Barrett","doi":"10.1038/s41559-026-03048-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03048-8","url":null,"abstract":"Larger animal groups are widely understood to require more space and expend more energy to mitigate the foraging costs of within-group competition. Yet between-group interactions and shifting resource distributions can obscure links between group size and behaviour, making responses to demographic change difficult to predict. Here, using 33 years of observational data from 12 neighbouring white-faced capuchin (Cebus imitator) groups in Costa Rica, combined with remotely sensed environmental data, we show that within- and between-group competition jointly shape space use, with their relative importance shifting with seasonal and interannual climate cycles. Larger groups compensated for reduced per capita foraging efficiency by expanding into less-exploited areas over longer timescales rather than increasing daily travel. Notably, this expansion disproportionately encroached on smaller neighbouring groups. In the dry season, resource confinement to riparian zones increased intergroup encounters and reduced overlap, with larger groups occupying the highest-quality areas. Climatic extremes linked to El Niño and La Niña exacerbated within-group foraging costs for large groups, whereas intermediate anomalies relaxed these constraints and amplified the benefits of between-group competitive ability. Our findings show that environmental variation shifts the trade-offs of within- and between-group competition, shaping how group-living animals adjust to changing social and ecological conditions.","PeriodicalId":18835,"journal":{"name":"Nature ecology & evolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147840362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Growing nickel supply from the tropics threatens priority conservation areas. 不断增长的热带镍供应威胁到了优先保护区。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03068-4

Jayden Hyman, Laura J Sonter, Eve McDonald-Madden, James E M Watson, Evelyn M Mervine, Joseph W Bull, Chloe Dawson, Thomas J Lloyd, Sebastian Luckeneder, Martine Maron, Bernardo Mendonca Severiano, Sarah Raymond, Thomas A Schlacher, Rachakonda Sreekar, Rick K Valenta, Piero Visconti, Tim T Werner, Stephen A Northey

{"title":"Growing nickel supply from the tropics threatens priority conservation areas.","authors":"Jayden Hyman, Laura J Sonter, Eve McDonald-Madden, James E M Watson, Evelyn M Mervine, Joseph W Bull, Chloe Dawson, Thomas J Lloyd, Sebastian Luckeneder, Martine Maron, Bernardo Mendonca Severiano, Sarah Raymond, Thomas A Schlacher, Rachakonda Sreekar, Rick K Valenta, Piero Visconti, Tim T Werner, Stephen A Northey","doi":"10.1038/s41559-026-03068-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03068-4","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing global demand for nickel, an essential metal in low-carbon technologies and stainless steel, is driving a surge in mining in strongholds of tropical biodiversity. We use a global mine-by-mine supply scenario model to quantify the trade-off between meeting future nickel demand for decarbonization and conserving areas critical for achieving biodiversity and climate targets. Nickel laterites-near-surface deposits often found beneath tropical forests-account for 78 to 83% of modelled supply between 2025 and 2050. Over this timeframe, half of mined nickel threatens the top 10% of global land areas most critical for conserving biodiversity and storing carbon, but avoiding mining in these areas increases the risk of supply shortfalls. In addition, 53 to 60% of future supply comes from coastal mines, which threaten the top 10% of global priority areas for conserving marine biodiversity. While deep-sea resource development remains controversial, we show that a moratorium may increase reliance on nickel sourced from high-priority areas for conserving terrestrial and coastal marine biodiversity. Securing ecologically responsible nickel supply requires integrating terrestrial and marine conservation priorities to inform sourcing and mine development decisions, alongside efforts to mitigate unavoidable impacts, increase resource exploration and reduce long-term demand.","PeriodicalId":18835,"journal":{"name":"Nature ecology & evolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147840429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hidden biodiversity costs of a deep-sea mining moratorium. 深海采矿禁令的隐性生物多样性成本。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03077-3

Valerio Barbarossa

引用次数: 0

Satellite data show trees delay budburst across landscapes to escape herbivores. 卫星数据显示，树木在景观中延迟发芽，以躲避食草动物。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03071-9

Soumen Mallick, Jens Lichter, Soyeon Bae, Thomas Kneib, Freerk Molleman, Benjamin M L Leroy, Torben Hilmers, Maike Huszarik, Andrew M Liebhold, Wolfgang W Weisser, Johannes A Jehle, Jörg Müller, Andreas Prinzing

{"title":"Satellite data show trees delay budburst across landscapes to escape herbivores.","authors":"Soumen Mallick, Jens Lichter, Soyeon Bae, Thomas Kneib, Freerk Molleman, Benjamin M L Leroy, Torben Hilmers, Maike Huszarik, Andrew M Liebhold, Wolfgang W Weisser, Johannes A Jehle, Jörg Müller, Andreas Prinzing","doi":"10.1038/s41559-026-03071-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03071-9","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, budburst, the timing of leaf emergence, has advanced less than expected despite continued spring warming, suggesting counteracting ecological forces. One of these forces might be increased and earlier herbivory on young leaves under climate warming. Here using 5 years of satellite radar data from 27,500 pixels (10 ×10 m2) across 60 temperate oak forest sites under experimental manipulation of insect herbivore loads in Central Europe, we show that prior-year leaf herbivory delayed budburst by 3 days, cancelling the phenological advance observed during a decade of warming. This delay reduced subsequent herbivory by 55%, exceeding the effects of parasitoids or pathogens, and persisted even during pest outbreaks. Across landscapes, the delay was strongest where it probably provided the highest benefit, that is, where a given amount of delay most effectively reduced following herbivory, which suggests an adaptive tree defence. Ultimately, trees may be trapped between responding to two opposing consequences of global change: warming selects for earlier budburst, whereas herbivory selects for delay. Our results underscore the need to consider not only climate, but also plant-herbivore interactions and adaptive evolution to predict tree responses to a changing world.","PeriodicalId":18835,"journal":{"name":"Nature ecology & evolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147817655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Heatwave legacy. 热浪的遗产。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03079-1

Iain Dickson

引用次数: 0

Reverse genetics of sexual antagonism. 性对抗的反向遗传学。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03036-y

Filip Ruzicka

引用次数: 0

Analysis of the impact of gene evolution on reproductive effects reveals prevalent sexual and germline-soma conflicts. 基因进化对生殖效应的影响分析揭示了普遍存在的性冲突和种系-体细胞冲突。

IF 13.9 1区生物学

Nature ecology & evolution Pub Date : 2026-05-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03065-7

Shengqian Xia, Deanna Arsala, Andrea Gschwend, William Koval, Jared Atlas, Shuaibo Han, Jianhai Chen, Laura Faulere, Muzi Li, Joseph Mihaljevic, Daniel J Sanchez, Grace Rui-Tong Yu, Natalia Tamarina, Nicholas VanKuren, Stefano Allesina, Manyuan Long

{"title":"Analysis of the impact of gene evolution on reproductive effects reveals prevalent sexual and germline-soma conflicts.","authors":"Shengqian Xia, Deanna Arsala, Andrea Gschwend, William Koval, Jared Atlas, Shuaibo Han, Jianhai Chen, Laura Faulere, Muzi Li, Joseph Mihaljevic, Daniel J Sanchez, Grace Rui-Tong Yu, Natalia Tamarina, Nicholas VanKuren, Stefano Allesina, Manyuan Long","doi":"10.1038/s41559-026-03065-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03065-7","url":null,"abstract":"Functional innovation is conventionally viewed as a consequence of natural selection for environmental adaptation. However, impacts of other evolutionary forces, including genetic conflicts, have not been explored through direct manipulations of individual genes when assessing overall genetic basis of fitness. Here we conducted a comprehensive RNA interference screen targeting 125 young and old genes in somatic and germline tissues of male and female Drosophila melanogaster, plus CRISPR knockouts of some genes. We analysed sex-specific adult fitness effects, fertility phenotypes of central importance in evolution, in a total of 732,710 adult offspring scored from over 15,000 repeated knockdown crosses and controls. Bayesian statistical analysis of the fitness data revealed that 62.6% of the young and old genes that underwent somatic knockdowns reveal remarkable intralocus sexual conflict with the vast majority being male advantageous and female detrimental, as knockdowns are male detrimental and female beneficial. Germline knockdowns detected a majority of genes with adaptive sexual concordance and over a quarter of genes under sexual antagonism mostly female advantageous and male detrimental. We also detected 36.7% of young genes that have strong effects in both germline and soma exhibit tissue conflicts within sex although female effects are stronger. These analyses of sex-specific distributions of fitness effects reveal a prevalent role for antagonistic selection between sexes and tissues, while finding no association between chromosomal locations and sexually antagonistic genes, nor with sex-biased expression and gene age.","PeriodicalId":18835,"journal":{"name":"Nature ecology & evolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147817649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0