Monthly Weather Review最新文献

{"title":"Comparing synoptic conditions and environmental characteristics for fronts with and without prefrontal convection initiation and heavy rain over coastal South China","authors":"Zhilin Zeng, Lingdong Huang, David M. Schultz, Luis Garcia-Carreras, Donghai Wang","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0054.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0054.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To understand why convection initiation and heavy rain sometimes occur ahead of fronts over South China in the presummer rainy season but sometimes do not, a climatology of 137 fronts is constructed, in which 34% of the fronts exhibit no prefrontal convection initiation (NoPCI), 31% of the fronts exhibit prefrontal convection initiation (PCI), and 35% of the fronts exhibit prefrontal convection initiation and heavy rain (PCI+HR). An anticyclonically curved upper-level jet streak and midtropospheric QG forcing produce synoptic-scale descent for the prefrontal region in NoPCI events, whereas the right-entrance region of a straight upper-level jet streak and forcing for ascent dominate the prefrontal region in PCI and PCI+HR events. Whether prefrontal convection and heavy rain occur is also related to the character of low-level flows. NoPCI features anticyclonic southerly winds, with an environment having low dewpoint throughout the troposphere, unfavorable for convection initiation. However, synoptic circulation of PCI and PCI+HR events favors a broad prefrontal surface low, which determines the greater cyclonic character of airflows in PCI+HR events, in contrast with that of the PCI events. Convective available potential energy is useful in distinguishing NoPCI and PCI events, and the three events have statistically significant differences in precipitable water. Moreover, larger magnitudes of precipitable water and bulk wind shear in PCI+HR events are conducive for prefrontal convection to produce heavy rain compared to those of PCI events. These results indicate the importance of the upper-level forcing on the prefrontal convection initiation, and heavy rain is sensitive to the changes in prefrontal airflow and moisture.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"43 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135412958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Precursory analysis ensemble spread signals that foreshadow stratospheric sudden warmings","authors":"Akira Yamazaki, Shunsuke Noguchi","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0169.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0169.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study conducts a thorough investigation into the behaviors of analysis ensemble spreads linked to stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events. A stratosphere-resolving ensemble data assimilation system is used here to document the evolution of analysis spread leading up to a pair of warming events. Precursory signals of the increased ensemble spreads were found a few days prior to two SSW events that occurred during December 2018 and August–September 2019 in the northern and southern hemispheres respectively. The signals appeared in the upper and middle stratosphere and did not appear at lower heights. When the signals appeared it was found that both tendency by forecast and analysis increment in a forecast-analysis (data assimilation) cycle simultaneously became large. An empirical orthogonal function analysis showed that the dominant structures of the precursory signals were equivalent barotropic and were 90° out-of-phase with the analysis ensemble-mean field. Over the same period the upper and middle stratosphere became more susceptible to barotropic instability than in their previous states. We conclude that the differing growth of barotropically unstable modes across ensemble members can amplify spread during the lead-up to SSW events.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CFL Optimized Forward-Backward Runge-Kutta Schemes for the Shallow Water Equations","authors":"Jeremy R. Lilly, Darren Engwirda, Giacomo Capodaglio, Robert L. Higdon, Mark R. Petersen","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0113.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0113.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present the formulation and optimization of a Runge-Kutta-type time-stepping scheme for solving the shallow water equations, aimed at substantially increasing the effective allowable time-step over that of comparable methods. This scheme, called FB-RK(3,2), uses weighted forward-backward averaging of thickness data to advance the momentum equation. The weights for this averaging are chosen with an optimization process that employs a von Neumann-type analysis, ensuring that the weights maximize the admittable Courant number. Through a simplified local truncation error analysis and numerical experiments, we show that the method is at least second order in time for any choice of weights and exhibits low dispersion and dissipation errors for well-resolved waves. Further, we show that an optimized FB-RK(3,2) can take time-steps up to 2.8 times as large as a popular three-stage, third-order strong stability preserving Runge-Kutta method in a quasi-linear test case. In fully nonlinear shallow water test cases relevant to oceanic and atmospheric flows, FB-RK(3,2) outperforms SSPRK3 in admittable time-step by factors roughly between 1.6 and 2.2, making the scheme approximately twice as computationally efficient with little to no effect on solution quality.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135856078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"REVIEW: Meteorological Research Enabled by Rapid-Scan Radar Technology","authors":"David J. Bodine, Casey B. Griffin","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0324.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0324.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The scientific community has long acknowledged the importance of high-temporal resolution radar observations to advance science research and improve high-impact weather prediction. Development of innovative rapid-scan radar technologies over the past two decades has enabled radar volume scans of 10–60 s, compared to 3–5 min with traditional parabolic dish research radars and the WSR-88D radar network. This review examines the impact of rapid-scan radar technology, defined as radars collecting volume scans in 1 min or less, on atmospheric science research spanning different subdisciplines and evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the use of rapid-scan radars. In particular, a significant body of literature has accumulated for tornado and severe thunderstorm research and forecasting applications, in addition to a growing number of studies of convection. Convection research has benefited substantially from more synchronous vertical views, but could benefit more substantially by leveraging multi-Doppler wind retrievals and complementary in-situ and remote sensors. In addition, several years of forecast evaluation studies are synthesized from radar testbed experiments, and the benefits of assimilating rapid-scan radar observations are analyzed. Although the current body of literature reflects the considerable utility of rapid-scan radars to science research, a weakness is that limited advancements in understanding of the physical mechanisms behind observed features have been enabled. There is considerable opportunity to bridge the gap in physical understanding with the current technology using coordinated efforts to include rapid-scan radars in field campaigns and expanding the breadth of meteorological phenomena studied.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135856075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Role of midlatitude baroclinic condition in heavy rainfall events directly induced by tropical cyclones in South Korea","authors":"Chanil Park, Seok-Woo Son, Yukari N. Takayabu, Sang-Hun Park, Dong-Hyun Cha, Eun Jeong Cha","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0046.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0046.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific often cause heavy rainfall events (HREs) in East Asia. However, how their interactions with midlatitude flows alter the characteristics of HREs has remained unclear. The present study examines the synoptic-dynamic characteristics of HREs directly resulting from TCs in South Korea with a focus on the role of midlatitude baroclinic condition. The HREs are categorized into two clusters based on midlatitude tropopause patterns: i.e., strongly (C1) and weakly (C2) baroclinic conditions. The C1, which is common in late summer, is characterized by a well-defined trough-ridge couplet and jet streak at the tropopause. As TCs approach, the trough-ridge couplet amplifies but is anchored by divergent TC outflow. This leads to phase locking of the upstream trough with TCs and thereby prompts substantial structural changes of TCs reminiscent of extratropical transition. The synergistic TC–midlatitude flow interactions allow for enhanced quasigeostrophic forcing over a broad area. This allows HREs to occur even before TC landfall with more inland rainfall than C2 HREs. In contrast, C2, which is mainly observed in mid-summer, does not accompany the undulating tropopause. In the absence of strong interactions with midlatitude flows, TCs rapidly dissipate after HREs while maintaining their tropical features. The upward motion is confined to the inherent TC convection, and thus HREs occur only when TCs are located in the vicinity of the country. These findings suggest that midlatitude baroclinic condition determines the spatial extent of TC rainfall and the timing of TC-induced HREs in South Korea.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135590687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Development and Characteristics of Streamwise Vorticity Currents Produced by Outflow Surges in Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms","authors":"Kevin T. Gray, Jeffrey W. Frame","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0309.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0309.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Streamwise vorticity currents (SVCs) have been hypothesized to enhance low-level mesocyclones within supercell thunderstorms and perhaps increase the likelihood of tornadogenesis. Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of SVCs in supercells and numerical simulations have allowed for further investigation of SVCs. A suite of 19 idealized supercell simulations with varying midlevel shear orientations is analyzed to determine how SVC formation and characteristics may differ between storms. In our simulations, SVCs develop on the cold side of left-flank convergence boundaries and their updraft-relative positions are partially dependent on downdraft location. The magnitude, duration, and mean depth of SVCs do not differ significantly between simulations or between SVCs that precede tornado-like vortices (TLVs) and those that do not. Trajectories initialized within SVCs reveal two primary airstreams, one that flows through an SVC for the majority of its length, and another that originates in the modified inflow in the forward flank and then merges with the SVC. Vorticity budgets calculated along trajectories reveal that the first airstream exhibits significantly greater maximum streamwise vorticity magnitudes than the second airstream. The vorticity budgets also indicate that stretching of horizontal streamwise vorticity is the dominant contributor to the large values of streamwise vorticity within the SVCs. TLV formation does not require the development of an SVC beforehand; 44% of TLVs in the simulations are preceded by SVCs. When an SVC occurs, it is followed by a TLV 53% of the time, indicating not all SVCs lead to TLV formation.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"122 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135830062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Gaussian Transformation on Cloud Cover Data Assimilation for Historical Weather Reconstruction","authors":"Xiaoxing Wang, Kinya Toride, Kei Yoshimura","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0315.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0315.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Old descriptive diaries are important sources of daily weather conditions before modern instrumental measurements were available. A previous study demonstrated the potential of reconstructing historical weather at a high temporal resolution by assimilating cloud cover converted from descriptive diaries. However, cloud cover often exhibits a non-Gaussian distribution, which violates the basic assumptions of most data assimilation schemes. In this study, we applied a Gaussian transformation (GT) approach to cloud cover data assimilation and conducted observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using 20 observation points over Japan. We performed experiments to assimilate cloud cover with large observational errors using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) and a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Without GT, meridional wind and temperature exhibited deteriorations in the lower troposphere compared with the experiment with no observations. In contrast, GT reduced the 2-month root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) by 5%–15% throughout the troposphere for wind, temperature, and specific humidity fields. Significant improvements include zonal wind at 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa with 6.4% and 7.3% improvements by GT, respectively, compared with the experiment without GT. We further demonstrate that the additional GT application to the precipitation background field improves precipitation estimation by 12.2%, with pronounced improvements over regions with monthly precipitation of less than 150 mm. We also explored the impact of cloud cover GT on a global scale and confirmed improvements extending from around the observation sites. Our results demonstrate the potential of GT in high-resolution historical weather reconstruction using old descriptive diaries. Significance Statement To reconstruct the historical weather, cloud cover information from old diaries can be used by incorporating high-resolution model simulations. However, cloud cover is not normally distributed and violates an important assumption when combining cloud cover observations with model simulations. Our results demonstrate that transforming the cloud cover distribution into a normal distribution could improve wind speed, temperature, and humidity fields in the model. We demonstrate the critical role of the transformation in a nonnormally distributed variable when combined with models and show the potential of diary-based weather information to reconstruct historical weather.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135008668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Distribution of Convective and Stratiform Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones from Airborne Doppler Radar and its Relationship to Intensity Change and Environmental Wind Shear Direction","authors":"Joshua B. Wadler, Joseph J. Cione, Robert F. Rogers, Michael S. Fischer","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0048.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0048.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Airborne Doppler radar reflectivity data collected in hurricanes on the NOAA P-3 aircraft between 1997 and 2021 were parsed into different modes of precipitation: stratiform precipitation, shallow convection, moderate convection, and deep convection. Stratiform precipitation was the most frequent precipitation mode with 82.6% of all observed precipitation while deep convection was the most infrequent at 1.3%. When stratified by 12-hr intensity change, intensifying TCs had a greater areal coverage of total convection in the eyewall compared to weakening and steady-state TCs. The largest difference in the azimuthal distributions in the precipitation modes was in deep convection, which was mostly confined to the downshear-left quadrant in weakening and steady-state hurricanes and more symmetrically distributed in intensifying hurricanes. For all intensity change categories, the most symmetrically distributed precipitation mode was stratiform rain. To build upon the results of a recent thermodynamic study, the precipitation data were recategorized for hurricanes experiencing deep-layer wind shear with either a northerly-component or southerly-component. Like intensifying storms, hurricanes that experienced northerly-component shear had a more symmetric distribution of deep convection than southerly-component shear storms, which had a distribution of deep convection that resembled weakening storms. The greatest difference in the precipitation distributions between the shear direction groups were in major hurricanes experiencing moderate (4.5–11 m s −1 ) wind shear values. Consistent with previous airborne radar studies, the results suggest that considering the distribution of deep convection and the thermodynamic distributions associated with differing environmental wind shear direction could aid TC intensity forecasts.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135195138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of surface drag on the structure and evolution of surface boundaries associated with tornadogenesis in simulated supercells","authors":"Qin Jiang, Daniel T. Dawson","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0050.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0050.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Surface boundaries in supercells have been suspected of being important in the arrangement and concentration of vorticity for the development and intensification of tornadoes, but there has been little attention given to the effects of the underlying surface roughness on their behavior. This study investigates the impact of surface drag on the structure and evolution of these boundaries, their associated distribution of near-surface vorticity, and tornadogenesis and maintenance. Comparisons between idealized simulations without and with drag introduced in the mature stage of the storm prior to tornadogenesis reveal that the inclusion of surface drag substantially alters the low-level structure, particularly with respect to the number, location, and intensity of surface convergence boundaries. Substantial drag-generated horizontal vorticity induces rotor structures near the surface associated with the convergence boundaries in both the forward and rear flanks of the storm. Stretching of horizontal vorticity and subsequent tilting into the vertical along the convergence boundaries lead to elongated positive vertical vorticity sheets on the ascending branch of the rotors and the opposite on the descending branch. The larger near-surface pressure deficit associated with the faster development of the near-surface cyclone when drag is active creates a downward dynamic vertical pressure gradient force that suppresses vertical growth, leading to a weaker and wider tornado detached from the surrounding convergence boundaries. A conceptual model of the low-level structure of the tornadic supercell is presented that focuses on the contribution of surface drag, with the aim of adding more insight and complexity to previous conceptual models.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136309031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental and Storm-Scale Controls on Close Proximity Supercells Observed by TORUS on 8 June 2019","authors":"Matthew B. Wilson, Adam L. Houston, Conrad L. Ziegler, Daniel M. Stechman, Brian Argrow, Eric W. Frew, Sara Swenson, Erik Rasmussen, Michael Coniglio","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0002.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0002.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Targeted Observation by Radars and UAS of Supercells (TORUS) field project observed two supercells on 8 June 2019 in northwestern Kansas and far eastern Colorado. Although these storms occurred in close spatial and temporal proximity, their evolutions were markedly different. The first storm struggled to maintain itself and eventually dissipated. Meanwhile, the second supercell developed just after and slightly to the south of where the first storm dissipated, and then tracked over almost the same location before rapidly intensifying and going on to produce several tornadoes. The objective of this study is to determine why the first storm struggled to survive and failed to produce mesocyclonic tornadoes while the second storm thrived and was cyclically tornadic. Analysis relies on observations collected by the TORUS project–including UAS transects and profiles, mobile soundings, surface mobile mesonet transects, and dual-Doppler wind syntheses from the NOAA P-3 tail Doppler radars. Our results indicate that rapid changes in the low-level wind profile, the second supercell’s interaction with two mesoscale boundaries, an interaction with a rapidly-intensifying new updraft just to its west, and the influence of a strong outflow surge likely account for much of the second supercell’s increased strength and tornado production. The rapid evolution of the low-level wind profile may have been most important in raising the probability of the second supercell becoming tornadic, with the new updraft and the outflow surge leading to a favorable storm-scale evolution that increased this probability further.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136309155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}