Monthly Weather Review最新文献_第4页

On the Role of the Meridional Jet and Horizontal Potential Vorticity Dipole in the Iowa Derecho of 10 August 2020 论 2020 年 8 月 10 日艾奥瓦回旋中子午喷流和水平位势涡度偶极的作用

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0168.1

M. Hitchman, S. M. Rowe

{"title":"On the Role of the Meridional Jet and Horizontal Potential Vorticity Dipole in the Iowa Derecho of 10 August 2020","authors":"M. Hitchman, S. M. Rowe","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0168.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0168.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000On 10 August 2020, a derecho caused widespread damage across Iowa and Illinois. Des Moines station data show that the arrival of the gust front was characterized by an abrupt shift to northerly flow, exceeding 22 m/s for ~ 20 min. To test the hypothesis that this northerly jet is associated with a horizontal potential vorticity (PV) dipole in the lower troposphere, we investigated the structure of PV in the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostratic Modeling System (UWNMS) and of absolute vorticity in High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast analyses.\u0000This structure is described here for the first time. The negative PV member coincides with the downdraft, while the positive PV member coincides with the updraft, with a northerly jet between. The westerly inflow jet descends anticyclonically in the downdraft, joining with northerly flow from the surface anticyclone. The resulting northerly outflow jet creates the trailing comma-shaped radar echo.\u0000The speed of propagation of the derecho is similar to the westerly wind maximum in the 3-5 km layer associated with the approaching synoptic cyclone, which acts as a steering level for resonant amplification. Idealized diagrams and 3D isosurfaces illustrate the commonality of the PV dipole / northerly jet structure. Differences in this structure among three model states are related to low-level wind shear theory. The PV dipole coincides with the pattern of diabatic stretching tendency, which shifts westward and downward relative to the updraft/downdraft with increasing tilt. The PV dipole can contribute toward dynamical stability in a derecho.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140683996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating temporal characteristics of polarimetric and electrical signatures in three severe storms: Insights from the VORTEX-Southeast field campaign 调查三次强风暴中极坐标和电特征的时间特性：VORTEX-Southeast 实地考察活动的启示

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0144.1

Milind Sharma, R. Tanamachi, Eric C. Bruning

{"title":"Investigating temporal characteristics of polarimetric and electrical signatures in three severe storms: Insights from the VORTEX-Southeast field campaign","authors":"Milind Sharma, R. Tanamachi, Eric C. Bruning","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0144.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0144.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The dual-polarization radar characteristics of severe storms are commonly used as indicators to estimate the size and intensity of deep convective updrafts. In this study, we track rapid fluctuations in updraft intensity and size by objectively identifying polarimetric fingerprints such as ZDR and KDP columns, which serve as proxies for mixed-phase updraft strength. We quantify the volume of ZDR and KDP columns to evaluate their utility in diagnosing temporal variability in lightning flash characteristics. Specifically, we analyze three severe storms that developed in environments with low-to-moderate instability and strong 0–6 km wind shear in northern Alabama during the 2016-17 VORTEX-Southeast field campaign. In these three cases (a tornadic supercell embedded in stratiform precipitation, a nontornadic supercell, and a supercell embedded within a quasi-linear convective system), we find that the volume of the KDP columns exhibits a stronger correlation with the total flash rate . The higher covariability of KDP column volume with total flash rate suggests that the overall electrification and precipitation microphysics was dominated by cold cloud processes. The lower covariability with ZDR column volume indicates the presence of nonsteady updrafts or a less prominent role of warm rain processes in graupel growth and subsequent electrification. Furthermore, we observe that the majority of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes carried negative charge to the ground. In contrast to findings from a tornadic supercell over the Great Plains, lightning flash initiations in the Alabama storms primarily occurred outside the footprint of the ZDR and KDP column objects.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140695547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improving the Representation of Moisture and Convective Instability in Baroclinic-Wave Channel Simulations 改进巴罗克林波通道模拟中水汽和对流不稳定性的表示方法

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0210.1

D. J. Lloveras, D. Durran

{"title":"Improving the Representation of Moisture and Convective Instability in Baroclinic-Wave Channel Simulations","authors":"D. J. Lloveras, D. Durran","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0210.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0210.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000We present an improved approach to generating moist baroclinically unstable background states for ƒ-plane-channel simulations via potential-vorticity (PV) inversion. Previous studies specified PV distributions with constant values in the troposphere and the stratosphere, but this produces unrealistic static-stability profiles that decrease sharply with height in the troposphere. Adding moisture to such environments can yield unrealistically large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) even for reasonable relative-humidity (RH) distributions. In our modified approach, we specify a PV distribution that increases with height in the troposphere and the stratosphere, yielding background states with more realistic values of static stability and CAPE. This modification produces environments that are better suited for representing moist processes, namely deep convection, in idealized extratropical-cyclone simulations. Also, we present a method for introducing moisture that preserves a specified RH distribution while maintaining hydrostatic balance. Our approach allows for a large degree of control over the initial conditions, as background states with different jet strengths and shapes, average temperatures, moisture contents, or horizontal shears can easily be obtained without changing the underlying PV formula and inadvertently producing unreasonable values of static stability or CAPE. We demonstrate the characteristics of idealized extratropical cyclones developing in our background states by adding localized perturbations that represent an upper-level trough passing over a low-level frontal zone. In particular, we illustrate the impacts of horizontal shear, moisture, and grid spacing on baroclinic-wave development.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140718954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The improvement of short-term quantitative precipitation forecast in mountainous areas by the assimilation of meteorological state variables retrieved by multiple-Doppler radar data 通过同化多普勒雷达数据获取的气象状态变量改进山区短期定量降水预报

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0230.1

Yu‐Chieng Liou, Tzu-Jui Chou, Yujian Cheng, Yung-Lin Teng

{"title":"The improvement of short-term quantitative precipitation forecast in mountainous areas by the assimilation of meteorological state variables retrieved by multiple-Doppler radar data","authors":"Yu‐Chieng Liou, Tzu-Jui Chou, Yujian Cheng, Yung-Lin Teng","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0230.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0230.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study presents a sequential procedure formulated by combining a multiple-Doppler radar wind synthesis technique with a thermodynamic retrieval method, which can be applied to retrieve the three-dimensional wind, pressure, temperature, rainwater mixing ratio, and moisture over complex terrain. The retrieved meteorological state variables are utilized to re-initialize a high-resolution numerical model, which then carries out time integration using four different microphysical (MP) schemes, including the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), Morrison (MOR), WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), and WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6) schemes.\u0000It is found that through this procedure the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of a numerical model over mountainous areas can be significantly improved up to six hours. The moisture field plays a crucial role in producing the correct rainfall forecast. Since no specific microphysical scheme outperforms the others, a combination of various rainfall scenarios forecasted by different MP schemes is suggested in order to provide a stable and reliable rainfall forecast.\u0000This work also demonstrates that, with the proposed approach, radar data from only two volume scans are sufficient to improve the rainfall forecasts. This is because the unobserved meteorological state variables are instantaneously retrieved and directly used to re-initialize the model, thereby the model spin-up time can be effectively shortened.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140723216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of initial condition perturbation blending in 10- and 40-member convection-allowing ensemble forecasts 初始条件扰动混合在允许对流的 10 成员和 40 成员集合预报中的影响

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0188.1

Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang

{"title":"Impacts of initial condition perturbation blending in 10- and 40-member convection-allowing ensemble forecasts","authors":"Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0188.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0188.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000A series of convection-allowing 36-hour ensemble forecasts during the 2018 Spring season are used to better understand the impacts of ensemble configuration and blending different sources of initial condition (IC) perturbation. Ten- and 40-member ensemble configurations are initialized with the multi-scale IC perturbations generated as a product of convective-scale data assimilation (MULTI), and initialized with the MULTI IC perturbations blended with IC perturbations downscaled from coarser resolution ensembles (BLEND). The forecast performance of both precipitation and non-precipitation variables is consistently improved by the larger ensemble size. The benefit of the larger ensemble is largely, but not entirely, due to compensating for under-dispersion in the fixed-physics ensemble configuration. A consistent improvement in precipitation forecast skill results from blending in the 10-member ensemble configuration, corresponding to a reduction in the ensemble calibration error (i.e., reliability component of Brier Score). In the 40-member ensemble configuration, the advantage of blending is limited to the ∼18-22 hour lead times at all precipitation thresholds, and the ∼35-36 hour lead times at the lowest threshold, both corresponding to an improved resolution component of the Brier Score. The advantage of blending in the 40-member ensemble during the diurnal convection maximum of ∼18-22 hour lead times is primarily due to cases with relatively weak synoptic scale forcing while advantages at later lead times beyond ∼30 hours lead time are most prominent on cases with relatively strong synoptic scale forcing. The impacts of blending and ensemble configuration on forecasts of non-precipitation variables is generally consistent with the impacts on the precipitation forecasts.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140731072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating Arctic Cyclone-Tropopause Polar Vortex Interactions with Idealized Observing System Simulation Experiments 利用理想化观测系统模拟实验研究北极气旋与对流层顶极地涡旋之间的相互作用

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0215.1

Matthew T. Bray, S. Cavallo

{"title":"Investigating Arctic Cyclone-Tropopause Polar Vortex Interactions with Idealized Observing System Simulation Experiments","authors":"Matthew T. Bray, S. Cavallo","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0215.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0215.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a primary driver of surface weather in the Arctic, contributing to heat and moisture transport and forcing short-term sea ice variability. Still, our understanding of the processes that drive ACs, particularly their large scales and long lifetimes, is limited. ACs are commonly associated with one or more cyclonic tropopause polar vortices (TPVs), potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that may spur baroclinic development in the surface system, though the exact processes that link the two have yet to be fully explored. In this study, we investigate physical links between TPVs, especially their mesoscale structure and moisture profiles, and ACs with idealized observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Starting with a nature run, we simulate different types of dropsonde observations over a TPV during the nascent phase of a nearby AC. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter are then used to run experiments to test the impact of these detailed TPV observations. In addition to a control, five main experiments are conducted, assimilating new observations of temperature and humidity. All experiments reduce forecast errors at the surface and throughout the troposphere. Additional humidity observations alter vertical PV distributions, which in turn impact the development of the AC. Experiments with additional temperature observations exhibit improvements in TPV structure and surrounding PV features and produce stronger surface cyclones with skillful TPV forecasts for up to 36 hours longer than the control.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140750840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Difference between Upshear and Downshear Propagating Waves Associated with the Development of Squall lines 上升切变和下降切变传播波与卷流线发展有关的区别

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0109.1

Hongpei Yang, Yu Du

{"title":"Difference between Upshear and Downshear Propagating Waves Associated with the Development of Squall lines","authors":"Hongpei Yang, Yu Du","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0109.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0109.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000During the development of squall lines, low-frequency gravity waves exhibit contrasting behaviors behind and ahead of the system, corresponding to its low-level upshear and downshear sides, respectively. This study employed idealized numerical simulations to investigate how low-level shear and tilted convective heating influence waves during two distinct stages of squall line evolution. In the initial stage, low-level shear speeds up upshear waves, while it has contrasting effects on the amplitudes of different wave modes, distinguishing from the Doppler effect. Downshear deep tropospheric downdraft (n=1 wave) exhibit larger amplitudes, resulting in strengthened low-level inflow and upper-level outflow. However, n=2 wave with low-level ascent and high-level descent has higher amplitude upshear, and exhibit higher altitude of peak w values downshear, leading to the development of a more extensive upshear low-level cloud deck and higher altitude of downshear cloud deck. In the mature stage, as the convective updraft greatly tilts rearward (upshear), stronger n=1 waves occur behind the system, while downshear-propagating n=2 waves exhibit larger amplitudes. These varying wave behaviors subsequently contribute to the storm-relative circulation pattern. Ahead of the squall line, stronger n=2 waves and weaker n=1 waves produce intense outflow concentrated at higher altitudes, along with moderate mid-level inflow and weak low-level inflow. Conversely, behind the system, the remarkable high-pressure in the upper troposphere and wake low are attributed to more intense n=1 waves. Additionally, the cloud anvil features greater width and depth rearward and is situated at higher altitudes ahead of the system due to the joint effects of n=1 and n=2 waves.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140377201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A conceptual model for the development of tornadoes in the complex orography of the Po Valley 波河谷复杂地形中龙卷风发展的概念模型

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0222.1

Francesco De Martin, Silvio Davolio, M. Miglietta, Vincenzo Levizzani

{"title":"A conceptual model for the development of tornadoes in the complex orography of the Po Valley","authors":"Francesco De Martin, Silvio Davolio, M. Miglietta, Vincenzo Levizzani","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0222.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0222.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The Po Valley in northern Italy is a hot spot for tornadoes in Europe in spite of being surrounded by two mountain ridges: the Alps in the north and the Apennines in the southwest. The research focuses on the case study of 19 September 2021, when seven tornadoes (four of them rated as F2) developed in the Po Valley in a few hours. The event was analyzed using observations and numerical simulations with the convection-permitting MOLOCH model. Observations show that during the event in the Po Valley there were two surface boundaries, that created a triple point: an outflow boundary generated by convection triggered in the Alpine foothills, and a dryline generated by downslope winds from the Apennines, while warm and moist air was advected westward from the Adriatic Sea east (ahead) of the boundaries. Tornadoes developed about 20 km north-east of the triple point. Numerical simulations with 500 m grid-spacing suggest that supercell and dryline development in the Po Valley were sensitive to the elevation of the Apennines. Simulated vertical profiles show that the best combination of instability and wind shear for the development of tornadoes was attained within a narrow area located ahead of the dryline. A conceptual model for the development of tornadoes in the Po Valley is proposed, and the differences between tornado environments over a flat terrain and over a region with complex terrain are discussed.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140221032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed 以飓风艾尔玛（2017 年）为试验平台，本地水汽分析不确定性对热带气旋生成集合预报的影响

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0195.1

Christopher M. Hartman, F. Judt, Xingchao Chen

{"title":"Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed","authors":"Christopher M. Hartman, F. Judt, Xingchao Chen","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0195.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0195.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess local water vapor analysis uncertainty impacts on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for\u0000each ensemble forecast.\u0000We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spin-up of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first six to twelve hours of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatio-temporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140227300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity Estimation 龙卷风破坏特征与低空 WSR-88D 雷达观测数据的比较及对龙卷风强度估计的影响

IF 3.2 3区地球科学

Monthly Weather Review Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-23-0242.1

Anthony W. Lyza, Matthew D. Flournoy, A. A. Alford

{"title":"Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity Estimation","authors":"Anthony W. Lyza, Matthew D. Flournoy, A. A. Alford","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0242.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0242.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Given the obvious difficulties in directly sampling tornadic wind fields, ongoing work continues to improve estimates of near-ground wind speeds in tornadoes. This study builds upon a recently proposed empirical relationship between radar-observed velocities in the lowest 150 m AGL and the theoretical peak 15-m AGL wind speed. We create and analyze a dataset of 194 velocity observations within tornadoes in the lowest 150 m AGL. These observations are drawn from 105 individual tornadoes that occurred across a diverse range of EF-scale ratings (EF0–4), convective modes (discrete supercell and quasi-linear convective system), geographical regions, and housing-unit densities (HUD). Comparing the radar-estimated and damage-estimated tornado wind speeds, and corresponding EF- and F-scale ratings, is the primary focus of the ensuing analysis. Consistent with recent work, damage-estimated tornado wind speeds tend to be lower than radar-estimated near-surface wind speeds, especially for stronger tornadoes. Damage- and radar-estimated wind speed differences are not strongly related to the availability of damage indicators (as measured by HUD). While some relationship exists—particularly underestimates of peak wind speeds for strong–violent tornadoes in low HUD areas—the tendency of radar-based strong/violent tornado intensity estimates to be meaningfully higher than EF-scale-based damage estimates exists across the HUD spectrum. The legacy F-scale wind speed ranges may ultimately provide a better estimate of peak tornado wind speeds at 10–15 m AGL for strong–violent tornadoes and a better damage-based intensity rating for all tornadoes. These results are contextualized with regards to ongoing community efforts to improve tornado intensity estimation.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140228352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0