Monthly Weather Review最新文献

{"title":"Probabilistic Convective Initiation Nowcasting Using Himawari-8 AHI with Explainable Deep Learning Models","authors":"Yang Li, Yubao Liu, Yueqin Shi, Baojun Chen, Fanhui Zeng, Zhaoyang Huo, Hang Fan","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0216.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0216.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Convective initiation (CI) nowcasting is crucial for reducing losses of human life and property caused by severe convective weather. A novel deep learning method based on the U-net model (named as CIUnet) was developed for forecasting CI during the warm season with eight interest fields of Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) and terrain height. The results showed that the CIUnet model produced probability forecasts of CI occurrence location and time with POD (probability of detection) at 93.3±0.3% and FAR (false alarm ratio) at 18.3±0.4% at a lead time of 30-min. Sensitivity and permutation importance experiments on the input fields of the CIUnet model revealed that the differences in brightness temperature for spectral channels were more critical for CI nowcasts than the original infrared channel brightness temperatures. The brightness temperature difference between Band10 (7.3 μm ) and Band13 (10.4 μm ), which represents the cloud-top height relative to the lower-troposphere, is identified as the most important input fields for CI nowcasting. The tri-spectral brightness temperature difference (TTD), which represents cloud-top glaciation, is ranked the second and it significantly reduced the FAR of the CI forecast. Using terrain heights as an extra input feature improved the POD, but slightly overestimated CI over complex terrain. In addition, a layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) analyses was performed, and confirmed that the CIUnet model can effectively identify the crucial regions and features of the input fields for accurate CI prediction. Therefore, both permutation importance experiments and LPR analyses are useful for improving the CIUnet model and advancing the understanding of CI mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135136938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-scale Environments","authors":"Daniel Veloso-Aguila, Kristen L. Rasmussen, Eric D. Maloney","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0248.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0248.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in Southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden-Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs one to two weeks ahead of tornado occurrence.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135091745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The potential roles of preexisting airmass boundaries on a tornadic supercell observed by TORUS on 28 May 2019","authors":"Kristen L. Axon, Adam L. Houston, Conrad L. Ziegler, Christopher C. Weiss, Erik N. Rasmussen, Michael C. Coniglio, Brian Argrow, Eric Frew, Sara Swenson, Anthony E. Reinhart, Matthew B. Wilson","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0007.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0007.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract On 28 May 2019, a tornadic supercell, observed as part of TORUS (Targeted Observation by UAS and Radars of Supercells) produced an EF-2 tornado near Tipton, KS. The supercell was observed to interact with multiple preexisting airmass boundaries. These boundaries and attendant air masses were examined using unoccupied aircraft system (UAS), mobile mesonets, radiosondes, and dual-Doppler analyses derived from TORUS mobile radars. The cool side air mass of one of these boundaries was found to have higher equivalent potential temperature and backed winds relative to the warm side air mass; features associated with MAHTEs (mesoscale air masses with high theta-E). It is hypothesized that these characteristics may have facilitated tornadogenesis. The two additional boundaries were produced by a nearby supercell and appeared to weaken the tornadic supercell. This work represents the first time that UAS have been used to examine the impact of preexisting airmass boundaries on a supercell, and it provides insights into the influence environmental heterogeneities can have on the evolution of a supercell.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135390972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Different Initial Condition Perturbation Methods for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting over South China during the Rainy Season","authors":"Xubin Zhang, Jingshan Li","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0093.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0093.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this study, downscaling, ensemble of data assimilation, time-lagging, and their combination were used to generate initial condition (IC) perturbations for 12-h convection-permitting ensemble forecasting for heavy-rainfall events over South China during the rainy season in 2013–2020. These events were classified as weak- and strong-forcing cases based on synoptic-scale forcing during the presummer rainy season and as landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) cases. This study investigated the impacts of various IC perturbation methods on multiscale characteristics of perturbations and the forecast performance for both nonprecipitation and precipitation variables. These perturbation methods represented different-source IC uncertainties and thus differed in multiscale characteristics of perturbations in vertical structures, horizontal distributions, and time evolution. Combination of various IC perturbation methods evidently increased perturbations or spreads of precipitation in both magnitude and location and thus improved the forecast-error estimation. Such an improvement was most and least evident for TC cases during the early and late forecasts, respectively, and was more evident for strong- than weak-forcing cases beyond 6 h. Combination of various IC perturbation methods generally improved both the ensemble-mean and probabilistic forecasts with case-dependent improvements. For heavy rainfall forecasting, 1–6-h improvements were most prominent for TC cases in terms of discrimination and accuracy, while 7–12-h improvements were least prominent for weak-forcing cases in terms of reliability and accuracy. In particular, the improvements in predicting weak-forcing cases increased with spatial errors. In contrast, for strong-forcing cases, the improvements were least and most prominent before and beyond 6 h, respectively.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135634331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ENSO and MJO Modulation of U.S. Cloud-to-ground Lightning Activity","authors":"Kelsey Malloy, Michael K. Tippett, William J. Koshak","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0157.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0157.1","url":null,"abstract":"Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning substantially impacts human health and property. However, the relations between U.S. lightning activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), two predictable drivers of global climate variability, remain uncertain, in part because most lightning datasets have short records that cannot robustly reveal MJO- and ENSO-related patterns. To overcome this limitation, we developed an empirical model of 6-hourly lightning flash count over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) using environmental variables (convective available potential energy and precipitation) andNational Lightning Detection Network data for 2003–2016. This model is shown to reproduce the observed daily and seasonal variability of lightning over most of CONUS. Then, the empirical model was applied to construct a proxy lightning dataset for the period 1979–2021, which was used to investigate the summer MJO-lightning relationship at daily resolution and the winter-spring ENSO-lightning relationship at seasonal resolution. Overall, no robust relationship between MJO phase and lightning patterns was found when seasonality was taken into consideration. El Niño is associated with increased lightning activity over the Coastal Southeast U.S. during early winter, the Southwest during winter through spring, and the Northwest during late spring, whereas La Niña is associated with increased lightning activity over the Tennessee River Valley during winter.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135820181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving simulations of warm rain in a bulk microphysics scheme","authors":"Robert Conrick, Clifford F. Mass, Lynn McMurdie","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0035.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0035.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Current bulk microphysical parameterization schemes underpredict precipitation intensities and drop size distributions (DSDs) during warm rain periods, particularly upwind of coastal terrain. To help address this deficiency, this study introduces a set of modifications, called RCON, to the liquid-phase (warm rain) parameterization currently used in the Thompson-Eidhammer microphysical parameterization scheme. RCON introduces several model modifications, motivated by evaluating simulations from a bin scheme, which together result in more accurate precipitation simulations during periods of warm rain. Among the most significant changes are (1) the use of a wider cloud water DSD of lognormal shape instead of the gamma DSD used by the Thompson-Eidhammer parameterization, and (2) enhancement of the cloud-to-rain autoconversion parameterization. Evaluation of RCON is performed for two warm rain events and an extended period during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) field campaign of winter 2015-16. We show that RCON modifications produce more realistic precipitation distributions and rain DSDs than the default Thompson-Eidhammer configuration. For the multi-month OLYMPEX period, we show that rain rates, rain water mixing ratios, and rain drop number concentrations were increased relative to the Thompson-Eidhammer microphysical parameterization, while concurrently decreasing rain drop diameters in liquid-phase clouds. These changes are consistent with an increase in simulated warm rain. Finally, real-time evaluation of the scheme from August 2021 to August 2022 demonstrated improved precipitation prediction over coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135934045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unusual Tropical cyclone Tracks under the Influence of Upper Tropospheric Cold Low","authors":"Han Li, Ziyu Yan, Melinda Peng, Xuyang Ge, Zhuo Wang","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0074.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0074.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanied by an upper tropospheric cold low (CL) can experience unusual tracks. Idealized simulations resembling observed scenarios are designed in this study to investigate the impacts of a CL on TC tracks. The sensitivity of the TC motion to its location relative to the CL is examined. The results show that a TC follows a counterclockwise semicircle track if initially located east of a CL while a TC experiences a small southward looping track, followed by a sudden northward turn if initially located west of a CL. A TC on the west side experiences opposing CL and β steering, while they act in the same direction when a TC is on the east side of CL. The steering flow analyses show that the steering vector is dominated by upper-level flow induced by the CL at early stage. The influence of CL extends downward and contributes to the lower-tropospheric asymmetric flow pattern of TC. As these two systems approach, the TC divergent outflow erodes the CL. The CL circulation is deformed and eventually merged with the TC when they are close. Since the erosion of CL, the TC motion is primarily related to β gyres at later stage. The sensitivity of TC motion to the CL depth is also examined. TCs located west of a CL experience a westward track if the CL is shallow. In contrast, TCs initially located east of a CL all take a smooth track irrespective of the CL depth, and the CL depth mainly influences the track curvature and the TC translation speed.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135272605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AMS Publications Support for Open, Transparent, and Equitable Research","authors":"Douglas Schuster, Michael Friedman","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0204.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0204.1","url":null,"abstract":"© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135161636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States","authors":"Raymond Sukhdeo, R. Grotjahn, Paul A. Ullrich","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0141.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0141.1","url":null,"abstract":"Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ∼10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa streamfunction anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k-means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in nondrought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139292979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Observational Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Tilt, Precipitation Structure, and Intensity Change","authors":"Michael S. Fischer, Robert F. Rogers, Paul D. Reasor, Jason P. Dunion","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-23-0089.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-23-0089.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study uses a recently-developed airborne Doppler radar database to explore how vortex misalignment is related to tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation structure and intensity change. It is found that for relatively weak TCs, defined here as storms with a peak 10-m wind of 65 kt or less, the magnitude of vortex tilt is closely linked to the rate of subsequent TC intensity change, especially over the next 12–36 h. In strong TCs, defined as storms with a peak 10-m wind greater than 65 kt, vortex tilt magnitude is only weakly correlated with TC intensity change. Based on these findings, this study focuses on how vortex tilt is related to TC precipitation structure and intensity change in weak TCs. To illustrate how the TC precipitation structure is related to the magnitude of vortex misalignment, weak TCs are divided into two groups: small-tilt and large-tilt TCs. In large-tilt TCs, storms display a relatively large radius of maximum wind, the precipitation structure is asymmetric, and convection occurs more frequently near the mid-tropospheric TC center than the lower-tropospheric TC center. Alternatively, small-tilt TCs exhibit a greater areal coverage of precipitation inward of a relatively small radius of maximum wind. Greater rates of TC intensification, including rapid intensification, are shown to occur preferentially for TCs with greater vertical alignment and storms in relatively favorable environments.","PeriodicalId":18824,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Weather Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135813752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}