Natural Hazards最新文献

Optimising rainfall characteristics for determining landslide thresholds. 优化降雨特征以确定滑坡阈值。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07835-7

Himasha Abeysiriwardana, Thomas Kjeldsen, Cormac Reale

{"title":"Optimising rainfall characteristics for determining landslide thresholds.","authors":"Himasha Abeysiriwardana, Thomas Kjeldsen, Cormac Reale","doi":"10.1007/s11069-025-07835-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07835-7","url":null,"abstract":"This work contributes a new framework for establishing data-driven rainfall thresholds in high-risk, data-limited contexts. Rainfall thresholds are commonly used to characterise the precipitation needed to trigger landslides in a region. However, these empirical relationships are sensitive to the exact definition of a \"rainfall event\", especially how the minimum inter-event time (MIT) and triggering event (TE) are defined. Using Bayesian inference (BI) and nonlinear least-squares (NLS) techniques, this study evaluates how variations in MIT and TE definitions affect rainfall threshold estimation, considering both Event Rainfall-Duration [Formula: see text] and Intensity-Duration [Formula: see text] spaces. The dataset includes 15-min rainfall measurements from 52 gauges recorded from 2005 to 2023, as well as a regional landslide dataset compiled from British Geological Survey records covering the South Wales coalfields. Findings reveal that BI-derived thresholds are more stable than NLS-based thresholds, showing smaller parameter changes and fewer unrealistic curves, particularly in I-D space, where NLS often produces near-flat thresholds. Overall, both BI and NLS approaches demonstrate their strongest performance at MIT = 48 h, emphasising the role of extended antecedent rainfall in triggering spoil tip failures. This study demonstrates how the integration of robust Bayesian methods facilitates the downscaling of global thresholds to data-scarce regions and how careful event delineation practices can improve landslide prediction.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 5","pages":"185"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12920361/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147271542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hybrid methods in flood inundation modeling: a systematic review. 洪水淹没模拟中的混合方法：系统综述。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08078-w

Manimeldura Devki Devanga Perera, Athanasios Angeloudis, Adil Siripatana, Lindsay Beevers

{"title":"Hybrid methods in flood inundation modeling: a systematic review.","authors":"Manimeldura Devki Devanga Perera, Athanasios Angeloudis, Adil Siripatana, Lindsay Beevers","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08078-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08078-w","url":null,"abstract":"Flooding is a destructive natural hazard that is exacerbating due to climate change, causing significant socio-economic losses. Flood inundation models are critical tools in the mitigation and management of such hazards. Conventional standalone process-based models can be limited in real-time applications due to their computational intensity and the trade-off between accuracy, resolution and speed. Data-driven (machine learning) models offer an alternative route as surrogate models, promising computational efficiency, however, are noted to have limitations of high data-dependency and a black-box nature. Hybridization, implemented in machine learning models to enhance strengths and limit tradeoffs has been shown to increase physics awareness, real-time applicability, and adaptability. This paper conducts a systematic review of state-of-the-art research on hybrid flood models, and presents a definition of hybridization. A classification of hybridization techniques into enhancing inputs, structure and processing is proposed. Sequentially, common metrics used to evaluate flood models are classified into accuracy and speed-based metrics, and the usefulness of hybridization is discussed. An extensive benchmarking framework is proposed for the comparison of models before application, based on quantitative classification of the model and standardized datasets and tests. Finally, a way forward is proposed in the context of physics informed machine learning for flood inundation modeling.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-026-08078-w.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 8","pages":"357"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13046610/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147623495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High impact low probability events: research landscape and future opportunities. 高影响低概率事件：研究前景和未来机会。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08107-8

Lauren McMillan, Gianluca Pescaroli, Mhari Gordon, Margherita Maraschini, Silvia Torresan, José Palma-Oliveira, Beatriz Rosa, Ana Sarroeira, Benjamin D Trump, Igor Linkov

{"title":"High impact low probability events: research landscape and future opportunities.","authors":"Lauren McMillan, Gianluca Pescaroli, Mhari Gordon, Margherita Maraschini, Silvia Torresan, José Palma-Oliveira, Beatriz Rosa, Ana Sarroeira, Benjamin D Trump, Igor Linkov","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08107-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-026-08107-8","url":null,"abstract":"High-impact, low-probability (HILP) events, characterised by their extreme consequences and inherent unpredictability, pose a growing challenge to disaster risk reduction in an era of systemic and cascading crises. Traditional risk assessment frameworks, which rely on probability-based models, often fail to capture the full scope of these events, leaving critical vulnerabilities unaddressed. This semi-systematic state-of-the-art review synthesizes current academic discourse on HILPs to identify their defining characteristics and implications for disaster preparedness and response. We analyse a dataset of 109 papers, highlighting the limitations of conventional planning tools and emphasising the need for adaptive, forward-looking strategies that integrate scenario planning, stress testing, and resilience assessment. The review finds that while HILPs are increasingly recognised in national risk registers and post-disaster response frameworks, their integration into preparedness, training, and governance systems remains limited. A key gap lies in translating theoretical insights into operational strategies that can be deployed before crises occur. The paper advocates for a hazard-agnostic, interdisciplinary approach that bridges risk and resilience thinking, enabling systems to anticipate, absorb, and adapt to a broad spectrum of threats. By advancing a research agenda beyond the Sendai Framework, this review contributes to a more robust understanding of HILPs and supports the development of more resilient and responsive disaster management systems.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 9","pages":"388"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13086801/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147723361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How trust shapes individual resilience to natural hazards: a systematic review. 信任如何塑造个人抵御自然灾害的能力：系统性回顾。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07816-w

Joshua P Nicholas, Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer, Louie Bell, Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries

{"title":"How trust shapes individual resilience to natural hazards: a systematic review.","authors":"Joshua P Nicholas, Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer, Louie Bell, Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries","doi":"10.1007/s11069-025-07816-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-025-07816-w","url":null,"abstract":"Trust is recognised as a critical element of disaster risk reduction; it shapes how people perceive risks, mobilise resources, and respond to hazards. Here, trust is defined as an individual's confidence in the ability and/ or intention of a system to act in their best interest. Importantly, many studies do not distinguish between ability- and intention-trust or acknowledge that such a distinction exists. Here, we present a systematic review of 100 articles and book chapters published between 2000 and 2025 which reveals that trust can both strengthen and weaken resilience to hazard events, depending on geographical factors, cultural context, hazard type, and the parties in whom trust is placed (e.g., government, community, scientific institutions, or personal beliefs). From the 100 studies, we identified 209 relationships between trust and individuals' resilience to natural hazards. We find that in the majority of case studies, trust is associated with increased resilience (58%), compared with trust being associated with decreased resilience (33%), or no change to resilience (10%). Our findings highlight the need for clarity when defining or theorising trust, and recognise the dynamic and context-dependent nature of trust when seeking to improve resilience to support effective disaster risk reduction.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-025-07816-w.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 2","pages":"48"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12816113/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146019084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A global parametric rain model for landfalling tropical cyclones: a case study for the U.S. 热带气旋登陆的全球参数化降雨模型：以美国为例

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08150-5

King Heng Lau, Sacha Czernichow, Nathan Sparks, Ralf Toumi

{"title":"A global parametric rain model for landfalling tropical cyclones: a case study for the U.S.","authors":"King Heng Lau, Sacha Czernichow, Nathan Sparks, Ralf Toumi","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08150-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08150-5","url":null,"abstract":"Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) is a crucial driver of TC hazards, yet estimating TC rain risk from observations is hindered by their relative infrequency. Parametric TC rain models coupled with stochastic TC risk models provide an efficient mean for quantifying such risk. This study introduces a new parametric rain model for landfalling TCs, integrated into the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS), a statistical-thermodynamic global TC hazard model. Using a 10,000-year simulation, IRIS reproduces observed global return periods of landfall rain rate, storm-total rain volume, and lifetime rain production over land. Over the United States, the model captures observed rainfall climatology and event accumulations with skill comparable to or slightly exceeding existing parametric models. The capability of the model for climate projection is demonstrated through a United States case study using a storyline approach that isolates thermodynamic effects, specifically increases in potential intensity and total column water, under a +2 °C global warming scenario. The pre-landfall maximum azimuthal mean rain rate of United States hurricanes increases by 20.1%, while contraction of the rain field limits the storm-total rain volume increase to 3.9%. Across their lifetimes over land, hurricanes produce 14.6% more rainfall. Spatially, warming enhances rain rates and accumulations across the eastern and southern United States, with the largest absolute increases in the southeast but the strongest relative increases inland and in the northeast, indicating greater inland and poleward penetration of hurricane rainfall under warming.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-026-08150-5.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 10","pages":"415"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13128782/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147817816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel framework for expanding temperature intensity-duration-frequency curve utility. 一种扩展温度强度-持续时间-频率曲线效用的新框架。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07811-1

Gregory E Tierney, Megan S Mallard, Tanya L Spero, Anna M Jalowska

{"title":"A novel framework for expanding temperature intensity-duration-frequency curve utility.","authors":"Gregory E Tierney, Megan S Mallard, Tanya L Spero, Anna M Jalowska","doi":"10.1007/s11069-025-07811-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07811-1","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme temperatures-both heat waves and cold snaps-pose a great hazard to human health, property, and infrastructure. Furthermore, projected changes in extreme temperature event frequency and intensity complicates adaptation and mitigation planning for local governments providing cooling/warming centers, entities depending on outdoor labor, and utilities responding to changing energy demand. Flexible tools evaluating the current and future risk of extreme temperature events could help to optimize hazard response. Here, we present an expanded framework for temperature intensity-duration-frequency (TIDF) curve analysis, including an objective fitting algorithm and uncertainty quantification, for the observational record. Prior to this study, the application of TIDF curves has been focused on heat waves. We expand that application to consider the utility of TIDF curves for extreme cold events as well as \"near-extreme\" events for a more robust quantification of the risk of extreme temperature events. Using a probabilistic approach to extremes, we also calculate confidence intervals, providing additional context for the severity and (where applicable) unprecedented nature of historically extreme events. Further analysis of confidence interval width offers insight to characterize differences in the uncertainty associated with hot and cold extremes. Finally, the flexibility of this new TIDF framework is demonstrated by analyzing two recent extreme temperature events-the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave and 2021 Texas cold snap-showcasing the broad utility and potential cross-sector application of a TIDF approach.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 1","pages":"5"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13138118/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147840496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic functionality assessment of road networks for medical emergency vehicles during flooding. 洪水期间医疗急救车辆道路网络的概率功能评估。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z

Ke He, Neil Carhart, Maria Pregnolato, Jeffrey Neal, Raffaele De Risi

{"title":"Probabilistic functionality assessment of road networks for medical emergency vehicles during flooding.","authors":"Ke He, Neil Carhart, Maria Pregnolato, Jeffrey Neal, Raffaele De Risi","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z","url":null,"abstract":"Flood damage to road networks primarily manifests as a loss of transportation functionality. Current analyses of road network functionality loss during floods are based on specific flood scenarios. This study analyses flood risk to road networks by assessing the probability of stability loss for various vehicle types (SUVs/emergency vehicles, and cars). Eventually, a flood risk map of the road network is generated. The flood risk of each road is computed as reduced accessibility, measured in this paper via isochrones. Bristol (UK) is used as the case study area, with all hospitals as starting points to study the coverage area of emergency vehicles within a given time frame. The results indicate that road network functionality for SUVs/emergency vehicles has a lower flood risk than that for cars. Additionally, the city centre of Bristol exhibits a higher flood risk, hindering emergency medical vehicles from reaching high-risk flood areas. The findings of this research offer strategies to mitigate the impact of floods on road networks and prepare emergency medical services before flood disasters occur.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 6","pages":"233"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12946296/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147326755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A geostatistical imputation of first floor elevation data for mapping flood vulnerability. 用于洪水易损性制图的一层高程数据的地质统计插值。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08095-9

Prarthana Raja, Yitong Li, Jie Gong

{"title":"A geostatistical imputation of first floor elevation data for mapping flood vulnerability.","authors":"Prarthana Raja, Yitong Li, Jie Gong","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08095-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08095-9","url":null,"abstract":"First Floor Elevation (FFE) is a crucial indicator used in the United States for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to flood events. However, most buildings within floodplains lack accurate FFE data. On-site FFE data collection could be costly and time-consuming. To facilitate efficient FFE data collection, this paper explores the extent to which FFEs for an entire community's building stock can be estimated using limited FFE data records. More specifically, this study leverages geostatistical imputation techniques to fill in missing FFE data. The proposed approach first stratifies buildings based on attributes such as foundation type and then applies Kriging to estimate missing FFEs by leveraging spatial relationships and distances between known data points. To demonstrate the applicability and validity, the approach is tested in three New Jersey townships: the inland township Manville and the two coastal townships Longport and Ventnor City. By transforming data into First Floor Height and stratifying by building type, the methodology achieved a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as low as 0.9893 ft in Manville, with variations in coastal towns due to unique structural and geographic factors. The findings highlight the potential of combining geostatistical modeling with building-specific attributes to enhance flood vulnerability assessments. This approach not only addresses critical data deficiencies but also supports informed decision-making in resilience planning and natural hazard mitigation.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 8","pages":"362"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13053347/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147639392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States. 自然灾害和美国内部移民造成的经济损失。

IF 3.3 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2

Marijn J Ton, Hans de Moel, Jens A de Bruijn, Lena Reimann, Wouter J W Botzen, Jeroen C J H Aerts

{"title":"Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States.","authors":"Marijn J Ton, Hans de Moel, Jens A de Bruijn, Lena Reimann, Wouter J W Botzen, Jeroen C J H Aerts","doi":"10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the impact of natural hazards on internal migration in the United States (US). The analysis uses Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax records and analyzes different versions of a gravity model to assess the impact of economic damage caused by natural hazards on migration flows between counties. We find that natural hazards in the origin county are associated to larger outflows, with hurricanes exhibiting the most substantial impact on migration, followed by floodings and severe storms. These results emphasize the need for migration research that distinguishes between various types of hazards. Furthermore, we extend the gravity model to investigate whether people tend to relocate to relatively nearby areas in response to natural hazards, an established phenomenon in existing literature. For floods and severe storms, the analysis demonstrates that migration flows to nearby counties are comparatively larger than to distant counties. These findings may be concerning, as it implies that individuals could still be at a high risk of experiencing future disasters. Additionally, we provide several robustness checks to investigate to what extent our results are driven by extreme events in the dataset.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"121 4","pages":"4985-5005"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11968479/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143795828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigation into the rockfall impact process of a quarry landfill slope under highway expansion. 公路扩建下某采石场填埋场边坡岩崩冲击过程研究。

IF 3.3 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06980-9

Bin Gong, Xiang Yu, Yongjun Zhang, Chunyan Bao, Chun'an Tang

{"title":"Investigation into the rockfall impact process of a quarry landfill slope under highway expansion.","authors":"Bin Gong, Xiang Yu, Yongjun Zhang, Chunyan Bao, Chun'an Tang","doi":"10.1007/s11069-024-06980-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06980-9","url":null,"abstract":"A quarry landfill slope is commonly partially or entirely filled with quarry waste. On the surface, a substantial amount of rough stone waste accumulates. This study specifically investigated the hazards posed by individual rockfalls and cluster rockfalls induced by landslides in such slopes, using an engineering slope as an illustrative example. The discontinuous deformation and displacement analysis method was employed to analyze the individual and cluster rockfall motion characteristics, as well as the dynamic response of protection structures. The results indicate that: (1) The impact of individual falling rocks on structures results in deformation and damage that far surpasses that caused by a flat plane impact. Interestingly, the stress generated upon rockfall contact with the structure is not initially at its maximum; it gradually increases to a peak as deformation occurs. When the structure is damaged or rebounds, the impact stress significantly diminishes. For wedge-shaped falling rocks impacting the upper part of the structure, bending tilting failure tends to occur. Conversely, irregular blocks with larger volumes impacting the lower part of the structure often lead to direct toppling failure; (2) Clusters falling rocks impede the movement of the sliding body. As the front and rear sliding bodies fracture along the middle, the rear sliding body tilts. Consequently, accumulated blocks are struck by the sliding body, initiating oblique throwing movements. There is a high likelihood of these rocks crossing protective structures; (3) The protection rate of the protective structure against single block stone impact stands at 86.7%. However, when subjected to the impact of a group of rockfalls, the protective structure completely fails. Overall, although the current protective measures are relatively cost-effective, the extremely high probability of casualties makes them unacceptable.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"121 5","pages":"5669-5695"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12000197/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144003211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0