Natural Hazards最新文献_第2页

Probabilistic functionality assessment of road networks for medical emergency vehicles during flooding. 洪水期间医疗急救车辆道路网络的概率功能评估。

IF 4.5 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z

Ke He, Neil Carhart, Maria Pregnolato, Jeffrey Neal, Raffaele De Risi

{"title":"Probabilistic functionality assessment of road networks for medical emergency vehicles during flooding.","authors":"Ke He, Neil Carhart, Maria Pregnolato, Jeffrey Neal, Raffaele De Risi","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z","url":null,"abstract":"Flood damage to road networks primarily manifests as a loss of transportation functionality. Current analyses of road network functionality loss during floods are based on specific flood scenarios. This study analyses flood risk to road networks by assessing the probability of stability loss for various vehicle types (SUVs/emergency vehicles, and cars). Eventually, a flood risk map of the road network is generated. The flood risk of each road is computed as reduced accessibility, measured in this paper via isochrones. Bristol (UK) is used as the case study area, with all hospitals as starting points to study the coverage area of emergency vehicles within a given time frame. The results indicate that road network functionality for SUVs/emergency vehicles has a lower flood risk than that for cars. Additionally, the city centre of Bristol exhibits a higher flood risk, hindering emergency medical vehicles from reaching high-risk flood areas. The findings of this research offer strategies to mitigate the impact of floods on road networks and prepare emergency medical services before flood disasters occur.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-026-08005-z.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 6","pages":"233"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12946296/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147326755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A geostatistical imputation of first floor elevation data for mapping flood vulnerability. 用于洪水易损性制图的一层高程数据的地质统计插值。

IF 4.5 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-026-08095-9

Prarthana Raja, Yitong Li, Jie Gong

{"title":"A geostatistical imputation of first floor elevation data for mapping flood vulnerability.","authors":"Prarthana Raja, Yitong Li, Jie Gong","doi":"10.1007/s11069-026-08095-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-026-08095-9","url":null,"abstract":"First Floor Elevation (FFE) is a crucial indicator used in the United States for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to flood events. However, most buildings within floodplains lack accurate FFE data. On-site FFE data collection could be costly and time-consuming. To facilitate efficient FFE data collection, this paper explores the extent to which FFEs for an entire community's building stock can be estimated using limited FFE data records. More specifically, this study leverages geostatistical imputation techniques to fill in missing FFE data. The proposed approach first stratifies buildings based on attributes such as foundation type and then applies Kriging to estimate missing FFEs by leveraging spatial relationships and distances between known data points. To demonstrate the applicability and validity, the approach is tested in three New Jersey townships: the inland township Manville and the two coastal townships Longport and Ventnor City. By transforming data into First Floor Height and stratifying by building type, the methodology achieved a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as low as 0.9893 ft in Manville, with variations in coastal towns due to unique structural and geographic factors. The findings highlight the potential of combining geostatistical modeling with building-specific attributes to enhance flood vulnerability assessments. This approach not only addresses critical data deficiencies but also supports informed decision-making in resilience planning and natural hazard mitigation.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"122 8","pages":"362"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13053347/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147639392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal dynamics of hailstorm activity and its implications on horticulture production in the northwest Himalaya 喜马拉雅西北部冰雹活动的时空动态及其对园艺生产的影响

3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07467-x

Basit Mohi Ud Din, S. Balaji, Aashiq Hussain Bhat, Gulam Rasool Bhat

引用次数: 0

Rupture length as a proxy for quantifying palaeo-earthquake magnitude for future seismic micro-zonation in Kashmir, NW Himalaya, India 断裂长度作为量化印度西北喜马拉雅克什米尔地区未来地震微带的古地震震级的代理

3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07189-0

Bikram Singh Bali, Ahsan Afzal Wani, Sareer Ahmad Mir, Mohammad Irfan, Dansita Farooq

引用次数: 9

A review of cloudbursts events in the Himalaya region, and 2D hydrodynamic simulation using MIKE models 喜马拉雅地区云暴事件的回顾，以及使用MIKE模型的二维流体动力学模拟

3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07173-8

Kuldeep Pareta, Upasana Pareta

引用次数: 5

Simulating the future flood events and their impacts on critical infrastructure in Srinagar: a Himalayan urban centre 模拟未来洪水事件及其对喜马拉雅城市中心斯利那加关键基础设施的影响

3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07129-y

Noureen Ali, M. Sultan Bhat, Akhtar Alam, Bilquis Shah, Hilal Ahmad Sheikh

引用次数: 2

Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States. 自然灾害和美国内部移民造成的经济损失。

IF 3.3 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2

Marijn J Ton, Hans de Moel, Jens A de Bruijn, Lena Reimann, Wouter J W Botzen, Jeroen C J H Aerts

{"title":"Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States.","authors":"Marijn J Ton, Hans de Moel, Jens A de Bruijn, Lena Reimann, Wouter J W Botzen, Jeroen C J H Aerts","doi":"10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the impact of natural hazards on internal migration in the United States (US). The analysis uses Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax records and analyzes different versions of a gravity model to assess the impact of economic damage caused by natural hazards on migration flows between counties. We find that natural hazards in the origin county are associated to larger outflows, with hurricanes exhibiting the most substantial impact on migration, followed by floodings and severe storms. These results emphasize the need for migration research that distinguishes between various types of hazards. Furthermore, we extend the gravity model to investigate whether people tend to relocate to relatively nearby areas in response to natural hazards, an established phenomenon in existing literature. For floods and severe storms, the analysis demonstrates that migration flows to nearby counties are comparatively larger than to distant counties. These findings may be concerning, as it implies that individuals could still be at a high risk of experiencing future disasters. Additionally, we provide several robustness checks to investigate to what extent our results are driven by extreme events in the dataset.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"121 4","pages":"4985-5005"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11968479/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143795828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigation into the rockfall impact process of a quarry landfill slope under highway expansion. 公路扩建下某采石场填埋场边坡岩崩冲击过程研究。

IF 3.3 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06980-9

Bin Gong, Xiang Yu, Yongjun Zhang, Chunyan Bao, Chun'an Tang

{"title":"Investigation into the rockfall impact process of a quarry landfill slope under highway expansion.","authors":"Bin Gong, Xiang Yu, Yongjun Zhang, Chunyan Bao, Chun'an Tang","doi":"10.1007/s11069-024-06980-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06980-9","url":null,"abstract":"A quarry landfill slope is commonly partially or entirely filled with quarry waste. On the surface, a substantial amount of rough stone waste accumulates. This study specifically investigated the hazards posed by individual rockfalls and cluster rockfalls induced by landslides in such slopes, using an engineering slope as an illustrative example. The discontinuous deformation and displacement analysis method was employed to analyze the individual and cluster rockfall motion characteristics, as well as the dynamic response of protection structures. The results indicate that: (1) The impact of individual falling rocks on structures results in deformation and damage that far surpasses that caused by a flat plane impact. Interestingly, the stress generated upon rockfall contact with the structure is not initially at its maximum; it gradually increases to a peak as deformation occurs. When the structure is damaged or rebounds, the impact stress significantly diminishes. For wedge-shaped falling rocks impacting the upper part of the structure, bending tilting failure tends to occur. Conversely, irregular blocks with larger volumes impacting the lower part of the structure often lead to direct toppling failure; (2) Clusters falling rocks impede the movement of the sliding body. As the front and rear sliding bodies fracture along the middle, the rear sliding body tilts. Consequently, accumulated blocks are struck by the sliding body, initiating oblique throwing movements. There is a high likelihood of these rocks crossing protective structures; (3) The protection rate of the protective structure against single block stone impact stands at 86.7%. However, when subjected to the impact of a group of rockfalls, the protective structure completely fails. Overall, although the current protective measures are relatively cost-effective, the extremely high probability of casualties makes them unacceptable.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"121 5","pages":"5669-5695"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12000197/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144003211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A geophysics-informed pro-poor approach to earthquake risk management. 地震风险管理的地球物理学扶贫方法。

IF 3.3 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06983-6

Himanshu Agrawal, Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, John McCloskey

{"title":"A geophysics-informed pro-poor approach to earthquake risk management.","authors":"Himanshu Agrawal, Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, John McCloskey","doi":"10.1007/s11069-024-06983-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06983-6","url":null,"abstract":"Recent earthquake disasters have highlighted an urgent need for continuous advancements in approaches to reducing seismic risk. Decision-making on such strategies should consider subsurface geophysical information (e.g., seismic site response), given its direct link to seismic hazard. This may be particularly important in regions where the poorest in society often reside in areas with softer soils that lead to higher ground-motion amplifications. In this context, we propose a framework to support decision-making on earthquake risk policies, which explicitly integrates information on the geophysics of an urban system as well as its physical and social environment. The framework is based on the Tomorrow's Cities Decision Support Environment, which was designed to support urban planning with a focus on pro-poor disaster risk reduction in countries of the Global South. It is further underpinned by a cost-benefit analysis, which facilitates the assessment of potential policies in terms of both their ability to reduce earthquake risk as well as their value for (often limited) money. We illustrate the framework using a well-established virtual urban testbed based on Global South cities, which reveals that geophysics-informed policy making can successfully lead to pro-poor earthquake risk reduction.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"121 6","pages":"6901-6919"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12037665/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144013335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A conceptual model to quantify probabilistic dike breach outflow. 一个量化概率堤口流出量的概念模型。

IF 3.7 3区工程技术

Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07500-z

Leon S Besseling, Anouk Bomers, Jord J Warmink, Suzanne J M H Hulscher

{"title":"A conceptual model to quantify probabilistic dike breach outflow.","authors":"Leon S Besseling, Anouk Bomers, Jord J Warmink, Suzanne J M H Hulscher","doi":"10.1007/s11069-025-07500-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07500-z","url":null,"abstract":"Hydrodynamic models can provide accurate information on the consequences of a dike breach, but their long computation times hinder the analysis of uncertainties and scenarios during a time-sensitive emergency situation. Conceptual models use simplified rules and relations, and allow for much faster computation while preserving reasonable accuracy. In this study, we develop a conceptual model with breach growth that estimates the dike breach outflow for varying river discharge events and for varying dike breach locations along the Rhine's bifurcations in the Netherlands and Germany. The results show that the model is able to provide a good estimate of the breach outflow, regardless of river discharge waves shape and peak discharge. The model achieves an approximate error of 10 to 15% compared to an operational hydrodynamic model of the study area. Its computation speed allows the analysis of thousands of scenarios per minute, enabling decision makers to probabilistically analyse breach outflow hydrographs at sampled critical water levels for an incoming extreme river discharge wave. We conclude that this conceptual model can provide realistic first estimates of breach outflow for large-scale dike breaches, while requiring little input data and computational time.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"121 15","pages":"17935-17963"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12378155/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144961719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0