Land Use Policy最新文献

{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of artificial forest expansion and their driving mechanisms for carbon sink enhancement in China (2005–2019)","authors":"Si-Yu Li,&nbsp;Xing-Peng Wei,&nbsp;Yuan Meng,&nbsp;Yu-Ting Yang,&nbsp;Zi-Yi Zheng,&nbsp;Jing-Xuan Zhou,&nbsp;Wang-Bo Yuan,&nbsp;Hong-Gang Ni","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To scientifically evaluate the carbon sequestration benefits and spatiotemporal effectiveness of afforestation in China, this study determined the annual expansion of artificial forests and the corresponding net carbon sink of afforestation (defined as carbon sink increment benefit, CSIB) in China from 2005 to 2019. It also analyzes the input-output efficiency of artificial forests and its influencing factors at the provincial level. The results indicated the hotspots for planting in China has shifted from 2005 to 2019, mainly moving from north to south and from east to west. The CSIB estimation indicated that China’s afforestation efforts yielded a 26.8 % greater carbon sink benefit than what was measured by conventional methods that only assess the absolute sink of the newly planted forest areas (NPFA). From 2005–2019, the regions with the highest efficiency of artificial forests were mainly located in the northeast and southwest of China. Based on machine learning regression methods, soil erosion degree, temperature, soil pH, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were identified as the main factors influencing the CSIB. This study aims to assess the carbon sink benefits of artificial forest expansion and identify their drivers, thereby providing a scientific basis for optimizing China’s future afforestation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107857"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conservation and land-use governance in Brazil: Domestic and international interconnectivity","authors":"Claudia Azevedo-Ramos ,&nbsp;Jessica Pacheco ,&nbsp;Rayssa Yuki Murakami Lima ,&nbsp;Paulo Moutinho ,&nbsp;Heiner von Luepke ,&nbsp;Richard Fischer","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Governance strategies, involving both governmental and non-governmental entities, are instrumental in regulating land use practices and conservation, specifically in countries with high agricultural commodity production. Their interconnection is vital for advancing sustainable agriculture and forest use while simultaneously addressing greenhouse gas emissions and land use and land rights. This study examines domestic and international interconnections of Brazil’s land-use-related strategies based on Social Network Analysis techniques. Our findings reveal that Brazil’s governance framework is broad and comprehensive. Key policies (climate, forest, and agriculture) are well connected, thus reducing sectoral fragmentation. Regulations to curb deforestation act as key connectors. The balance between production and conservation strategies supports coherence, reinforces coordination, and contributes to Brazil’s capacity to deliver sustainable outcomes. Non-state and hybrid strategies complement state-led policies but could be strengthened to further improve overall governance. International connections — mainly linked to forest and climate strategies — exist but are uneven and limited. For instance, the Brazilian Forest Policy, the most interconnected strategy, is mainly linked to a specific international forest governance cluster with little cross-sector interrelation. Our results suggest a broad and mostly well-connected domestic land use governance framework but reveal the need to improve the integration of several less-connected domestic regulations and to strengthen alignment with international policies. The findings can inform the design of policy frameworks capable of supporting national and global sustainability targets. A future focus on implementation can help bridge the gap between policy design and real-world outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107870"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is Net Carbon Goal an accounting game? Insights from supply-demand interactions in carbon sequestration service","authors":"Mingyu Zhao ,&nbsp;Yatao Zhang ,&nbsp;Aaron Thompson ,&nbsp;Chun Liang Tan ,&nbsp;Yang Chen ,&nbsp;Waishan Qiu ,&nbsp;Wenjing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107850","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107850","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net Carbon Goal is a pressing global policy challenge, yet these ambitious goals are typically defined by specific emission reduction percentages and stabilized atmospheric concentration levels. However, the current “Absolute zero” policy has degenerated into a mere accounting game, thereby overlooking the hidden supply-demand interactions in carbon sequestration service (CSS) embedded in the Net Carbon Goal. Beyond this, CSS supply-demand interactions nested across scales and identification of fine-grained patterns over the long term have not received adequate attention. To address these gaps, this study proposes an analytical framework to investigate CSS supply-demand interactions in Singapore (2001–2022). CASA modeling and the NTL-based coefficient allocation method are employed to estimate the long-time series CSS supply, demand, and budget at different spatial scales. The CSS supply-demand interactions are analyzed from four dimensions: spatial-temporal changes, dynamic balance, spatial match, and flows. Finally, we discuss land use response, scale stability and zoning heterogeneity as key considerations for policy design. Our accounting reveals that 31.52 % Singapore area has achieved static Net Carbon Goal, while an additional 34.11 % can attain a dynamic Net Carbon Goal from supply-demand interactions. Given the second-best perspective, that no perfect equilibrium exists, including an absolute Net Carbon Goal, policy implications from our study suggest incorporating dynamic supply-demand interaction as Pareto optimal sets into CSS management to approximate the Net Carbon Goal. Overall, this study makes empirical and theoretical contributions by advancing Pareto optimal sets that move the Net Carbon Goal beyond a numerical exercise into a more substantive accounting game.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107850"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting land value capture instruments for the Grand Paris Express metro: Metropolitan governance, local trade-offs and urban outcomes","authors":"Juliette Maulat ,&nbsp;Natacha Aveline-Dubach","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107854","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107854","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a context of budgetary austerity, land value capture (LVC) is increasingly promoted globally as a key source to bridge the financial gap for infrastructure investment. This article examines the LVC mechanisms adopted for the Grand Paris Express, one of Europe’s largest ongoing urban transit projects, led by the state-owned Société des Grands Projets (SGP). It combines LVC literature with the sociology of policy instruments to analyse the selection and implementation of LVC tools, along with their outcomes on urban governance and spatial planning. Drawing on documentary analysis and interviews with representatives of the SGP and transport and planning institutions, the study highlights a shift in LVC from a tax-based to a development-based instrument, resulting in the launching of around eighty real estate projects on land acquired for the metro. This shift both reflects and shapes the broader reconfiguration of metropolitan governance and evolving models of infrastructure financing. It is bolstered by the SGP’s transformation into an entrepreneurial actor, embracing new operational models that amplify the role of major private developers and embed market logics in public land development. While the ongoing projects—shaped by local trade-offs and marked by heterogeneity—support transit-oriented development and housing production near stations, the design of the development-based instrument undermines the provision of affordable housing. Thus, the paper draws attention to the inherent biases of the LVC instruments and to the potential for adverse socio-spatial outcomes, calling for further research on the interconnections between infrastructure financing, LVC policy instrumentation and urban planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107854"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145613710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From sustainable to responsible: A biopolitics reinterpretation of ‘8 R’ model","authors":"He Gao ,&nbsp;Walter Timo de Vries ,&nbsp;Wencang Shen ,&nbsp;Weidong Qu","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107875","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107875","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and escalating socio-ecological risks require land management to move from “sustainable” rhetoric to operational “responsible” norms. In response, we assume that institutional shifts in land management, driven by technological innovations and evolving societal values, contribute to more responsive and inclusive governance structures. Changing socio-political norms, such as biopolitics and climate change, lead to the development of de facto institutions. Thus, this study addresses the missing theoretical foundation by reframing the 8 R model through biopolitics and institutional change, conceiving land management as a socio-technical regime that governs the Space–Life continuum. We combine conceptual analysis with a theory-driven discourse–narrative analysis of 24 cases spanning five continents at four benchmark years. Materials are coded with a scheme combining institutional analysis and biopolitics, then mapped onto an 8 R heuristic (Retraceable, Robust, Recognizable, Responsive, Resilient, Respected, Reflexive, Reliable). Results show a three-decade consolidation from sustainability claims toward responsibility-oriented institutional norms. The 8 R configuration functions as an integrative grammar: Retraceable and Recognizable anchor transparency in cadastral, valuation and evidence chains; Respected and Responsible organize participation, legitimacy and accountability; Robust and Reliable structure redundancy, standards and performance assurance; Resilient and Reflexive close the adaptation–feedback loop across human–environment systems. These patterns recur across regions with contextual variation but consistent mechanisms linking technological change, shifting values, organizational design and institutional rules to Space–Life governance. The study advances a biopolitics-informed foundation for responsible land management and offers a replicable diagnostic and design toolkit for policy. It concludes by offering a governance and evaluation framework that can guide context-sensitive designs for mitigation and adaptation across the Global South and North, positioning the 8 R as a measurable pathway from principle to practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107875"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145546284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing machine learning for property valuation: An examination of access to education and health opportunities in Fortaleza, Brazil","authors":"Lara Sucupira Furtado ,&nbsp;Cecilia Silvestre Carvalho ,&nbsp;Filipe Francisco Rocha Damasceno ,&nbsp;Antônio Augusto Ferreira de Oliveira ,&nbsp;Vládia Célia Monteiro Pinheiro","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107855","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107855","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban accessibility plays a critical role in shaping property values, as access to essential services and infrastructure can significantly influence real estate prices. Accurate property valuation models are crucial to estimate fair property taxes to fund urban services and public infrastructure. Traditional appraisal methods often struggle to capture the complexities of urban environments, prompting the need for automated and cost-effective approaches. This study investigates how urban accessibility influences property value prediction by leveraging machine learning for large-scale property appraisal. We focus on Fortaleza, Brazil, a city known for its georeferenced property database and integration of machine learning into tax estimations. To quantify accessibility, we compute variables using a method developed by the Institute for Applied Economic Research, measuring access to health and education opportunities within a specific travel time via public transportation. We then apply a Quantile Random Forest model to estimate property values and assess its performance using the Mean Absolute Percent Error. Results indicate that improved accessibility to health and education facilities via public transport increases property values by approximately 9.6 % for apartments and 28 % for land parcels, with stronger effects in higher socio-economic areas near major street networks. This study provides evidence that access to opportunities and transportation infrastructure can significantly enhance property values, particularly in diverse urban settings like Fortaleza. Our findings underscore the potential of machine learning in improving the efficiency and accuracy of property taxation models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107855"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adapting biodiversity conservation in agriculture and forestry to projected climate change in temperate and boreal regions: A synthesis","authors":"Aino Hämäläinen ,&nbsp;Lina Widenfalk ,&nbsp;Malin Undin ,&nbsp;Erik Öckinger ,&nbsp;Adam Felton ,&nbsp;Meelis Seedre ,&nbsp;Anna Filyushkina ,&nbsp;Thomas Ranius","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Numerous conservation approaches have been advocated in response and there is a need to compile these into a readily accessible format. We systematically searched scientific literature to summarize recommendations that previous review papers have given for conserving biodiversity in the face of both direct and indirect effects of climate change. As indirect effects of climate change, we considered altered land management and habitat loss, increased disturbances and extreme events, and pests and invasive species. We included recommendations targeting production landscapes dominated by agriculture or forestry in temperate and boreal regions. We found 285 relevant reviews, which in turn cited 874 original research papers as support for the recommendations given. Of the summarized recommendations, 35 % considered direct and 58 % indirect effects of climate change, while 7 % considered both. Indirect effects were considered more frequently in recommendations applicable to agriculture than forestry dominated landscapes. Frequent recommendations were increasing landscape habitat diversity or connectivity, mitigating habitat deterioration, restoring degraded habitats, and adapting management methods in both forestry and agriculture. Most of the recommendations were similar to or consistent with traditional conservation practices, while novel, climate-change specific recommendations were less frequent. We conclude that there is a wealth of research on how to maintain biodiversity in agriculture and forestry dominated landscapes in a world with a warming climate. The summarized recommendations provide a starting point for planning conservation, and the attached database with all considered reviews and original research papers can be used as a source for evidence-based management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107873"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land use regulations assessment on the impacts on urban river systems in Florianópolis, southern Brazil","authors":"Paula Lidia Santana,&nbsp;Jakcemara Caprario,&nbsp;Patrícia Kazue Uda,&nbsp;Alexandra Rodrigues Finotti","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107853","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107853","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization is transforming small watersheds, amplifying flood risks and challenging sustainable water management worldwide. This study investigates how regulatory-driven urban expansion affects the hydrology of the Meio River watershed (4 km²) in Florianópolis, southern Brazil – a coastal, rapidly urbanizing area where the municipal Master Plan lacks explicit hydrological criteria. The watershed was chosen for its combination of intense urban growth and hydrological vulnerability, making it representative of similar coastal cities in Brazil and other regions globally. Using land-use and land-cover data from 2009, 2019, and a future scenario derived from the Master Plan, hydrological responses were simulated with a hydraulic-hydrological model for the period 1997–2020, focusing on peak and base flows as indicators of watershed resilience. Results show that base flows remain stable, while projected urban growth could increase peak flows by up to 25 %, signaling heightened flood risk and pressures on urban water systems. Limitations include the focus on a single watershed and the absence of water quality measurements, emphasizing the need for integrated and comparative studies. Future research should explore multiple watersheds, incorporate climate change scenarios, and evaluate stormwater management strategies, including Sustainable Drainage Systems, Water-Sensitive Urban Design, and Sponge City approaches. By linking empirical hydrological modeling with urban planning analysis, this research provides actionable insights for resilience-oriented urban policies, offering guidance to coastal cities worldwide facing similar hydroclimatic pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107853"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145492160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning in cropland dynamics: Evidence from China","authors":"Hanjie Wang ,&nbsp;Wenpeng Huang ,&nbsp;Xiaohua Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The scientific identification of cropland dynamics patterns is essential for developing effective protection policies. Utilizing satellite remote sensing data, this study applies DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) K-means algorithms to classify cropland dynamics in China, providing a solid foundation for targeted policy design. The findings reveal four distinct patterns: growth, fluctuation, late-stage shrinkage, and early-stage shrinkage. An ensemble learning analysis further identifies key predictors of cropland dynamics, including water irrigation capacity, agricultural mechanization, industrialization, and urbanization. Notably, the primary predictors vary across different cropland dynamics patterns. The growth pattern is characterized by robust increases in agricultural mechanization and irrigation capacity, while the fluctuation pattern exhibits slower progress in both mechanization and irrigation. Meanwhile, the early-stage shrinkage pattern is distinguished by rapid non-farm economic expansion and higher levels of urbanization. Based on these insights, we propose a differentiated approach to cropland protection policies, ensuring strategies are tailored to specific regional dynamics. Overall, this study offers valuable guidance for future cropland conservation and management efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107856"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pan-ontological institutional bricolage? The urgent need for a dialogue between state and customary authorities in Namibian conservancies","authors":"Sakeus Kadhikwa ,&nbsp;Michael Bollig ,&nbsp;Stéphanie Eileen Domptail","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107887","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107887","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Following independence, several southern African states established modern institutions in communal areas to manage human-wildlife relations and land tenure. These reforms were layered over existing customary governance systems, creating overlapping jurisdiction and contested authority. This study analyzes how such institutional arrangements produce governance conflicts within Namibia’s communal conservancies, where management committees and communal land boards have been introduced to manage wildlife and land in territories still under traditional authorities. The study presents evidence of institutional interactions, land use patterns, and the distribution of conservancy benefits which were obtained during field work in 2023 and 2024. We (1) collected qualitative data through interviews with conservancies stakeholders, management committees, and members of supporting institutions; (2) facilitated participatory mapping at both conservancy and village levels; and (3) reviewed regional databases of customary land rights and conservancy records. Findings reveal a form of institutional bricolage characterized by discordant institutional multiplicity shaped by competing values and logics. This produces conflicts in three domains: (1) land use and zoning, (2) management and distribution of conservancy revenues, and (3) shifting values and principles of communal land rights allocation. Conflicts emerge when governance decisions only follow the norms and values of modern systems while marginalizing customary values. Excluding traditional authorities from governance processes such as corridor planning, community conceptualization, and land allocation provokes resistance in defense of their values and legitimacy. We conclude that effective land-use governance in communal settings requires policy frameworks that recognize and integrate the values of both governance systems alike, rather than promoting the dominance of one over the other.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107887"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145651565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}