Journal of Vector Borne Diseases最新文献

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Vector dynamics and Onchocerca infectivity status of Simulium damnosum complex at Arinta and Erin-Ijesha waterfalls, Southwest Nigeria. 尼日利亚西南部Arinta和Erin-Ijesha瀑布鼠绵菌复合体的媒介动力学和盘尾丝虫感染状况
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_40_25
Oluwadamilare Ganiu Dauda, Akinlabi Mohammed Rufai, Olabanji Ahmed Surakat, Zahra Oyindamola Iwalewa, Kamilu Ayo Fasasi, Monsuru Adebayo Adeleke
{"title":"Vector dynamics and Onchocerca infectivity status of Simulium damnosum complex at Arinta and Erin-Ijesha waterfalls, Southwest Nigeria.","authors":"Oluwadamilare Ganiu Dauda, Akinlabi Mohammed Rufai, Olabanji Ahmed Surakat, Zahra Oyindamola Iwalewa, Kamilu Ayo Fasasi, Monsuru Adebayo Adeleke","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_40_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_40_25","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>Arinta and Erin-Ijesha are popular waterfalls in Southwest Nigeria where preliminary assessments identified blackfly activity, yet data on vector dynamics and Onchocerca infectivity remain unavailable. This study investigated these parameters to assess the risk of onchocerciasis transmission at both sites.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Adult black flies were collected for three consecutive days in a month by two dark complexioned adult male human landing catchers from September 2023 to August 2024. For each hour of sampling, 20% of the catches were randomly selected and dissected in real-time to assess parity and infectivity using standard procedure. The remaining flies were morphologically identified as savannah and forest flies and were preserved for O-150 pool screening.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 1,090 Simulium flies were caught, Arinta (n=1012) and Erin-Ijesha (n=78). The peak monthly biting rate (MBR) were 3160.0 (Arinta, September) and 289.3 (Erin-Ijesha, October) bites/person/month while the lowest MBRs were 72.3 (Arinta, July) and 0.0 (Erin-Ijesha, January to March, May, July and August) bites/person/month. The MBR at Arinta was significantly higher than at Erin-Ijesha (p=0.02). The Annual biting rate (ABR) at Arinta (10,231.8 bites/person/year) exceeded the WHO threshold of 1,000 bites/person/year, while below at Erin-Ijesha (790 bites/person/year). All morphologically examined flies were identified as forest species. No Onchocerca infectivity was detected in dissected or pool-screened (n = 857) flies.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>Findings suggest low risk of onchocerciasis transmission at both waterfalls, with blackflies merely constituting biting nuisance. Continued public health education of tourist is recommended to allay their fears on the public health risk posed by blackfly bites, along with the use of protective clothing and repellents.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144553872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Localized Bullous Eruption caused by mosquitoes: Report of 16 patients and review of the literature. 蚊虫引起的局部大疱性皮疹16例报告并文献复习。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_198_24
Stefano Veraldi, Rossana Schianchi, Italo Francesco Aromolo, Gianluca Nazzaro
{"title":"Localized Bullous Eruption caused by mosquitoes: Report of 16 patients and review of the literature.","authors":"Stefano Veraldi, Rossana Schianchi, Italo Francesco Aromolo, Gianluca Nazzaro","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_198_24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_198_24","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144553840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coverage and Determinants of Mass Drug Administration against Lymphatic Filariasis in Southeast Asian Regional Countries during the End-game Strategy: A Systematic Review & Meta-analysis of published articles from January 2019 to March 2025. 终局战略期间东南亚地区国家淋巴丝虫病大规模药物给药的覆盖率和决定因素:对2019年1月至2025年3月发表的文章的系统回顾和荟萃分析。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_58_25
Indranil Saha, Joydeep Majumder, Bhavani Shankara Bagepally, Deepanjan Ray, Saibal Das, Manoj Kalita, M Devaraja, Anoop Velayudhan, Devi Das, Bobby Paul, Sanjit Dey
{"title":"Coverage and Determinants of Mass Drug Administration against Lymphatic Filariasis in Southeast Asian Regional Countries during the End-game Strategy: A Systematic Review & Meta-analysis of published articles from January 2019 to March 2025.","authors":"Indranil Saha, Joydeep Majumder, Bhavani Shankara Bagepally, Deepanjan Ray, Saibal Das, Manoj Kalita, M Devaraja, Anoop Velayudhan, Devi Das, Bobby Paul, Sanjit Dey","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_58_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_58_25","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>Mass Drug Administration (MDA) is one of the important pillars of eliminating lymphatic filariasis. The present study aimed to determine the pooled coverage and compliance of the MDA and its determinants in the Southeast Asian Regional countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This proposal was registered in PROSPERO. The study focused on four databases (PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Cochrane Central) and articles published between January 2019 and March 2025. The setting was taken from studies performed across the Southeast Asian Region. Stata Version 17 was used for meta-analysis of the selected studies. The overall and subgroup-wise analysis was computed using the DerSimonian-Laird method for the random-effects model in Forest plots. A funnel plot was done to find out the publication bias.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Altogether, 34 articles were analysed. Of the 34 articles, 28 (82.3%) and 4 (11.8%) articles were published in India and Indonesia, respectively. The pooled coverage and compliance of MDA were found to be 80.16% (95% CI: 74.68-85.64%) and 67.25% (95% CI: 60.17-74.33%), respectively. Subgroup-wise, both coverage and compliance decreased in studies conducted in 2020 or afterwards. Side effects of the drugs, non-diseased status, suffering from some other diseases, too many drugs, bad taste of the drugs were some of the common barriers to successful MDA implementation.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>Thus, the time has come to develop strategies to improve MDA coverage and compliance at the community level. The strategy would be bilateral, involving both providers and beneficiaries, who need to be engaged in the proper implementation of MDA administration at the grassroots level.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144553838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Epidemiology of Human Brucellosis in India: A Systematic Review. 印度人类布鲁氏菌病的流行病学:系统综述。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_235_24
Dhanashree V Manjrekar, Tushar N Nale, Yogesh A Bahurupi, Ajit D Shewale, Jitesh S Kuwatada, Simmi Tiwari
{"title":"Epidemiology of Human Brucellosis in India: A Systematic Review.","authors":"Dhanashree V Manjrekar, Tushar N Nale, Yogesh A Bahurupi, Ajit D Shewale, Jitesh S Kuwatada, Simmi Tiwari","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_235_24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_235_24","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>Brucellosis, a bacterial zoonotic disease, is caused by various species of Brucella, predominantly affecting livestock. In India, human brucellosis is a significant public health concern due to the proximity between humans and animals. Moreover, the under-reporting of cases and misdiagnosis of human brucellosis make it difficult to assess the problem and develop effective public health interventions. Therefore, the study's objectives were to estimate the prevalence, geographic spread, and seasonal patterns of human brucellosis in India; identify affected age groups and occupations, and examine risk factors contributing to its spread.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>'PubMed, Embase, and Scopus' databases were explored for literature until September 3, 2024. Terms included in the search strategy were 'Human Brucellosis' AND 'Prevalence,' 'Risk factors,' 'India.' Manual searches were also conducted on 'Google Scholar,' and relevant articles were selected.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Final review included twenty-nine articles. According to the 'JOANNA BRIGGS INSTITUTE (JBI) CHECKLIST,' 4 studies have a low 'risk of bias' and 15 studies have moderate 'risk of bias.' Brucellosis affects individuals across all age groups, from children to older adults, with the highest number of cases occurring in the 20-40-year age group. Men are most affected, and IgG ELISA has the highest seropositive cases in all the studies.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>This review highlights that human brucellosis constitutes a major public health issue in India, with higher prevalence in rural areas and among individuals with occupational exposure to livestock or animal products. Males are most affected; however, findings on gender susceptibility remain inconsistent, warranting further investigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144553839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stegomyia mosquitoes in the airport and seaports of Sri Vijaya Puram, Andaman and Nicobar Islands: A popular tourist destination. 安达曼和尼科巴群岛机场和海港的潜蝇蚊:一个受欢迎的旅游目的地。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_44_25
M Kaliyamoorthy, Avijit Roy, Kannan Thiruvengadam, Sunish I Pulikkottil, Tapash Kumar Dakuya, Ajit Kumar, B Sumit Kumar Rao, Vivek K Sahu, Addepalli Premkumar
{"title":"Stegomyia mosquitoes in the airport and seaports of Sri Vijaya Puram, Andaman and Nicobar Islands: A popular tourist destination.","authors":"M Kaliyamoorthy, Avijit Roy, Kannan Thiruvengadam, Sunish I Pulikkottil, Tapash Kumar Dakuya, Ajit Kumar, B Sumit Kumar Rao, Vivek K Sahu, Addepalli Premkumar","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_44_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_44_25","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>The breeding potential of vector mosquitoes of dengue and chikungunya viruses in and around airport and seaport of Sri Vijaya Puram (Port Blair), Andaman & Nicobar Islands was explored.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The survey was carried out for two years during the months of March and April. All the water holding containers in the residential and non-residential areas of airport and seaport were surveyed for Aedes immatures.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The Stegomyia indices were higher in 2023 compared to 2024. The indices in 2023; the HI, CI, BI and PI were 20.1, 5.6, 32.4 and 86.0, respectively, whereas in 2024, these values declined to 6.8, 1.9, 9.6 and 17.4. Two Aedes species; Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were found in the surveyed containers, with the former in higher proportion. In 2023, larger drum/tanks had higher CI values, while in 2024 smaller containers had more positivity. Ovitrap index showed significant difference (P<0.05) between the two years in both airport and seaport. The percentage positivity for Aedes eggs was 41.2% (n=97) and 36.7% (n=79) in airport and seaport respectively.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>This study is the first comprehensive entomological survey conducted at the Sri Vijaya Puram International Airport and seaport. It offers the data on Aedes mosquitoes, especially Ae. aegypti, principal vector of arboviruses, at critical entry points, which are the key vulnerable zones of Andaman and Nicobar archipelago. Study highlights the urgent need for systematic vector surveillance and effective control measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144553841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anthropogenic influence, microbes and zoonotic diseases: Ecological imbalance, diverse impact and the ONE Health approach. 人为影响、微生物和人畜共患疾病:生态失衡、多种影响和同一个健康方法。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_13_25
Mohammad Fahad Ullah
{"title":"Anthropogenic influence, microbes and zoonotic diseases: Ecological imbalance, diverse impact and the ONE Health approach.","authors":"Mohammad Fahad Ullah","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_13_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_13_25","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Humans, animals, and ecosystems coexist in a delicate web of interdependent means of existence. Each of these play pivotal roles in shaping the sustainability of life on Earth and global health outcomes. Human actions have profoundly transformed ecosystems on a global scale, threatening biodiversity and destabilizing ecological processes. The intricate relationship between humans and animals also extends to the realm of disease transmission such as zoonotic diseases. The term \"spillover\" commonly refers to an infection originating from animals that spreads to humans, potentially leading to an outbreak that escalates into an epidemic or pandemic through human-to-human transmission. These incidents posed the risk of evolving into pandemics with high mortality rates, which became a reality with a very recent in times the Covid-19 pandemic. The emergence and spread of zoonotic diseases are influenced by a multifaceted interaction of factors including biological, ecological, environmental, socioeconomic, and human-induced influences such as deforestation, agriculture practices, livestock production, climate change and globalization. These modify the dynamics of disease transmission between animals and humans. Effectively averting and controlling zoonotic diseases requires embracing a One Health strategy, fostering collaboration among sectors accountable for human health, animal health, and environmental safeguards. The One health challenges the anthropogenic dominance of earth and aims for optimal health and sustainability for humans, animals, and the environment simultaneously.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144302401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Theoretical and Molecular Investigation of Bioactive Compounds as Potential Inhibitors of Plasmodium falciparum. 恶性疟原虫潜在抑制剂生物活性化合物的理论与分子研究。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_36_25
Hani Alothaid
{"title":"Theoretical and Molecular Investigation of Bioactive Compounds as Potential Inhibitors of Plasmodium falciparum.","authors":"Hani Alothaid","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_36_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_36_25","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>Plasmodium falciparum is the most dangerous species of the malaria-causing parasite and remains a significant global health threat. Despite advances in understanding malaria and its pathology, effective treatments are limited, and drug development remains challenging. Computational techniques assist in screening potential drug candidates by simulating interactions between small molecules and target enzymes.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this study, Density Functional Theory (DFT), ADME analysis, and molecular docking studies were carried out against the ATP-dependent DNA helicase (UvrD) protein of Plasmodium falciparum 3D7, using three biologically active compounds: Betulinic acid, Celastrol, and Vitamin D3.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Theoretical calculations suggest that all three compounds (Betulinic acid, Celastrol, and Vitamin D3) have strong binding affinity toward Plasmodium falciparum targets. These findings may offer a novel direction for antimalarial drug discovery.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>Computational results predict that Compound 2 (Celastrol) exhibits stronger interactions with the target protein compared to the other two compounds. Its higher reactivity is further supported by a narrower HOMO-LUMO gap and molecular electrostatic potential (MEP) maps.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144302402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring Antimalarial Activity of Drugs using Weighted Atomic Vectors and Artificial Intelligence. 基于加权原子向量和人工智能的药物抗疟活性研究。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_131_24
Yoan Martínez López, Wilber Figueredo Rodríguez, Juan A Castillo-Garit, Stephen J Barigye, Oscar Martínez-Santiago, Noel Enrique Rodríguez Maya
{"title":"Exploring Antimalarial Activity of Drugs using Weighted Atomic Vectors and Artificial Intelligence.","authors":"Yoan Martínez López, Wilber Figueredo Rodríguez, Juan A Castillo-Garit, Stephen J Barigye, Oscar Martínez-Santiago, Noel Enrique Rodríguez Maya","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_131_24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_131_24","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>Malaria is a global health issue, causing over two million deaths annually. The development of new and potent antimalarial drugs is essential to combat the disease. Machine learning has been increasingly applied to predict antimalarial activity of compounds, offering a promising approach for antimalarial pharmaceutical research. This study aims to predict the antimalarial activity of potential compounds using weighted atomic vectors and machine learning algorithms.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The research employs several machine learning algorithms, such as Decision Tree, Bagging Regressor, and Ada Boost. The study uses weighted atomic vectors to represent compounds and employs machine learning algorithms for prediction. The performance of the models is assessed using metrics like R2, MAE, and RMSLE, statistical validation using Friedman and Wilcoxon Tests.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results highlight the remarkable efficacy of Ada Boost in predicting antimalarial activity, consistently outperforming other algorithms across different datasets, achieving a maximum precision of 93.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>The combination of weighted atomic vectors and machine learning emerges as a promising approach for antimalarial pharmaceutical research, emphasizing the significance of artificial intelligence in this field.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144248544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A case report of concomitant infections of cutaneous, mucocutaneous, and visceral leishmaniasis. 皮肤、粘膜和内脏利什曼病合并感染1例报告。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_11_25
Prativa Priyadarshani Sethi, Riti Bhatia, Prasan Kumar Panda, Amit Tyagi, Namrata Sarkar, Ashok Singh, Sarthak Gaur
{"title":"A case report of concomitant infections of cutaneous, mucocutaneous, and visceral leishmaniasis.","authors":"Prativa Priyadarshani Sethi, Riti Bhatia, Prasan Kumar Panda, Amit Tyagi, Namrata Sarkar, Ashok Singh, Sarthak Gaur","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_11_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_11_25","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144248529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting dengue incidence in Dakshina Kannada, Karnataka (2024-2026) using Time Series Analysis. 利用时间序列分析预测2024-2026年卡纳塔克邦Dakshina Kannada地区登革热发病率。
IF 0.8 4区 医学
Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_29_25
Navya Mohana, Mackwin Kenwood Dmello, Suresha Kharvi, Neevan Dsouza
{"title":"Forecasting dengue incidence in Dakshina Kannada, Karnataka (2024-2026) using Time Series Analysis.","authors":"Navya Mohana, Mackwin Kenwood Dmello, Suresha Kharvi, Neevan Dsouza","doi":"10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_29_25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_29_25","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background objectives: </strong>Dengue fever is a significant public health challenge in India. This threat has been amplified by rapid urbanization. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue transmission, the influence of climate on dengue transmission, and predict future trends of dengue incidence in Dakshina Kannada from 2024 to 2026.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study used retrospective data from January 1, 2019, to April 30, 2024, and covered 288 locations in the Dakshina Kannada district of Karnataka. Data was collected in Excel and analyzed using Jamovi 2.3.28 for descriptive statistics. Time series analysis was performed in R version 4.4.0, while spatiotemporal clusters were identified using SaTScan V10.1.2 and visualized in QGIS version 3.30.0. Multivariable linear regression was conducted to identify climate factors affecting dengue cases. ARIMA models were employed for predictive forecasting of future dengue cases.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 1,836 recorded dengue cases was retrieved from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) at the district level. The study identified significant spatiotemporal clusters of dengue cases, with the primary cluster occurring from May 1, 2022, to April 30, 2024. Climatic factors, particularly rainfall and temperature, showed significant correlations with dengue incidence. The ARIMA (3,1,1) (1,0,0) [12] model demonstrated robust forecasting capability for dengue cases, indicating a continuing upward trend, which appears to be influenced by seasonal patterns.</p><p><strong>Interpretation conclusion: </strong>Dengue transmission in Dakshina Kannada is significantly influenced by climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity. The ARIMA-based predictive modeling forecasted increased dengue cases in the coming years. These findings show the need for targeted public health interventions in identified hotspot areas, along with continuous climate-based surveillance to support timely and effective dengue control measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":17660,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vector Borne Diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144248545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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