CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk-Sharing Arrangements – Implications for Monetary Policy","authors":"M. Blaszkiewicz","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2637388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2637388","url":null,"abstract":"The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insufficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life of the programme, to date the QE programme has met its monthly targets and bond market volatility has been managed. Questions also arise in respect of the fact that risk is not fully shared on up to €738.4 billion to be purchased over the life of the programme. Partial risk sharing raises the spectre of defaulting central banks exiting the euro system, and existing members being unwilling to bear associated costs, and thus the future of the euro area. However, estimations suggest that, at present, all national central banks should be able to bare losses stemming from sovereign debt purchases under the current round of QE.This report was prepared within a research project entitled Sovereign bond purchases and risk sharing arrangements: Implications for euro-area monetary policy, which received funding from the European Parliament.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"121 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123339277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment","authors":"A. Åslund","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2632144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2632144","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121490121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Quarter Century of Economic Reforms in Ukraine: Too Late, Too Slow, Too Little (Ćwierć Wieku Ukraińskich Reform: Za Mało, Za Późno I Zbyt Wolno)","authors":"Oleh Havrylyshyn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2581521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2581521","url":null,"abstract":"The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work. Contents of this publication were first presented by Oleh Havrylyshyn during the 135th mBank-CASE Seminar \"A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little\". / Niniejsze opracowanie ma na celu opisaae g³owne zmiany, jakie zasz³y w ukrainskiej gospodarce od momentu odzyskania niepodleg³oœci w 1991 roku, rownoczeœnie zwracaj¹c uwage na rozwoj produkcji i œcie?ki reform gospodarczych. Dobrze znanym faktem jest, i? gospodarka Ukrainy funkcjonowa³a bardzo s³abo, a proces jej reformowania przebiega³ doœae powoli, znacznie wolniej ni? w wiekszoœci krajow Europy Œrodkowej i panstw Ba³tyckich, a nawet niektorych krajow by³ego Zwi¹zku Radzieckiego. Kolejnym, o wiele bardziej problematycznym i kontrowersyjnym celem opracowania jest wyjaœnienie, dlaczego tak sie sta³o. W tym przypadku zwi¹zek przyczynowy powi¹zany jest z dwoma relacjami: zale?noœci¹ miedzy wydajnoœci¹ gospodarki i tempem reform, oraz czynnikami bed¹cymi przyczyn¹ wolnego tempa reform. Najwa?niejszym celem niniejszej pracy jest natomiast wykazanie oraz udowodnienie, ?e s³abe wyniki gospodarcze s¹ przede wszystkim wynikiem poŸnego rozpoczecia procesu reform oraz ich wolnego tempa. Jest ona jednak jedynie wstepem do pe³nej analizy przyczyn opiesza³oœci we wprowadzaniu zmian oraz propozycja sposobow zastosowania metod ekonometrycznych do zbadania tego problemu w przysz³oœci. / Treœae Zeszytu zosta³a po raz pierwszy zaprezentowana przez Oleha Havrylyshyna podczas 135. Seminarium mBank-CASE: \"AEwierae wieku ukrainskich reform: za ma³o, za poŸno i zbyt wolno\".","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117259172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Special Economic Zones – 20 Years Later","authors":"Camilla Jensen, M. Winiarczyk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2394547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2394547","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we undertake an ex-post evaluation of whether the special economic zones (SEZs) introduced in Poland in 994 have been successful in meeting regional development objectives. We evaluate the policy on as many of its objectives as possible: employment creation, business creation (which includes attracting foreign direct investment), income or wage effects, and environmental sustainability. We use different panel data methods to investigate this question at the powiat (nuts4 or something similar to a commune) and gmina (nuts5 or something similar to a village) levels in Poland during the 995-20 period. It is also possible to include numerous controls to reduce the problem of the omitted variables bias such as education level, dependency rates, state ownership, general subsidies and whether the area is urban or rural. Our results indicate that SEZs in Poland have been successful in a number of their objectives such as private business creation. The positive effect of the policy however mainly comes through foreign direct investment (FDI), whereas the effects on e.g. investment and employment are small or insignificant. In other areas, such as securing higher income levels and locking firms into the sustainability agenda through the adoption of green technologies and reduced air pollution, we find only a small positively moderating effect of the policy on what are traditionally economically disadvantaged areas in Poland that used to be dependent on the socialist production model. Hence, despite high levels of FDI, the zones policy has not managed to overcome the legacy of backwardness or lagging regions. The main policy implication of the paper is that SEZs may be successful in stimulating activity in the short run but the policy must be seen as one of necessary temporality and can therefore not stand alone. Before launching SEZs, policymakers must have plans in place for follow up measures to ensure the longer term competitiveness and sustainability implications of such an initiative. There is a need to understand the connection between the specific incentive schemes used (in this particular case tax incentives were used) and the kinds of firms and activities they attract, including the behavioral models that those incentives promote.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128528752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Relationship between Energy and Socio-Economic Development in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean","authors":"E. Bergasse, Wojciech Paczyński, Marek A. Dąbrowski, Luc De Wulf","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2233323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2233323","url":null,"abstract":"This report aims to identify, explain and detail the links and interactions in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) between energy supply and demand and socio-economic development, as well as the potential role of energy supply and demand policies on both. Another related aim is to identify and analyse, in a quantitative and qualitative way, the changing role of energy (both demand and supply) in southern Mediterranean economies, focusing on its positive and negative impact on socio-economic development. This report investigates in particular: ? The most important channels through which resource wealth can contribute to or hamper economic and social development in the analysed region; ? Mechanisms and channels of relations between energy supply and demand policies and economic and social development. The burdens of energy subsidies and ‘oil syndrome’ are of particular relevance for the region. An integrated socio-economic development and energy policy scenario approach showing the potential benefits and synergies within countries and the region is developed in the final part of the report.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130226003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth: An Investigation into the Relationship between Entrepreneurship and Total Factor Productivity Growth in the EU","authors":"A. Dabkowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1883546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1883546","url":null,"abstract":"Endogenous growth theory assigns an important role for entrepreneurship in the process of economic development. This paper sets to formally test the impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth. Entrepreneurship is represented by a number of proxy variables, whereas Total Factor Productivity is used as a measure of economic growth. Panel data of 26 European countries repeatedly sampled over a period of 11 years is used to estimate a Random Effects model. This study finds that entrepreneurship contributes to growth moderately. It is not, nonetheless, a dominant force shaping changes in TFP growth rates. Business Birth Rate, Self-employment Rate, Business Investment and Labour Productivity Growth were all found to be highly significant. The article concludes that more encompassing measure of entrepreneurship needs to be developed, one that would reflect the complexity of the notion.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"20 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114106037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on Quality of Public Finances in Support of Growth in the Mediterranean Partner Countries of the EU","authors":"Leonor. Coutinho, Luc De Wulf, C. Sassanpour, Santiago Flórez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1715090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1715090","url":null,"abstract":"Until the early 1990s, the discussions on fiscal policy primarily centered on the functions of economic stabilization, income redistribution and resource allocation. Long-term growth was not usually viewed as an end itself, and fiscal policy was often not sufficiently tailored to the different circumstances and priorities of countries at different stages of development. It is only relatively recently that the discussion has gradually focused on the links between different dimensions of quality of public finances and economic growth. Based on the conceptual framework for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth that has been developed by the European Commission and applied to the EU Member States, this study examines the conditions under which the budgetary policy, and more specifically expenditure, revenue and financing design would be supportive of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The study also highlights some of the interlinkages between fiscal policy and growth and summarises empirical findings found in the literature with particular focus on Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The main findings of the study are similar to those that apply to the EU Member States and can be summarised as follows: • The way government expenditures are financed matters. Deficit and debt financing clearly undermines growth performance. • The composition of expenditure does matter however the efficiency of the expenditure undertaken is even more important for growth. For countries with good governance indicators the positive impact of the productive expenditures on growth was enhanced. The analysis was applied to the efficiency of education and health expenditures with basically similar results. • Notwithstanding the importance of 'fair' income distribution, when tax policy relies heavily on income taxation to do so, the analysis suggests a likely negative effect on growth. Specifically, consumption taxes were found to depress growth by up to four times less than income taxes. The study concludes by highlighting possible areas in the planning and execution of fiscal policy and governance where growth enhancing interventions can be applied.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"4324 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116206856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Integration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region","authors":"Michael Gasiorek, R. Ayadi, Luc De Wulf, A. Ghoneim, El Elj Moez, Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, Selen Sarisoy Guerin, P. Holmes, Hammad Kassal, M. Maliszewska, M. Tekce","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1526992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1526992","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluates the effects of the current Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Agreement for the EU and the Mediterranean region, in order to assist policy makers in defining the next steps in the Euro-Mediterranean Road map till 2010 and beyond. It provides quantitative, qualitative and sectoral assessment of the impacts of the Euro-Mediterranean FTA on trade and investment, points out the partnerships’ strengths and weaknesses and provides policy recommendations with the view of realizing a goal of a well functioning free trade area in the future. The focus of the study is on Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia (MED5).","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121547070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Shock Absorber?","authors":"M. Maliszewska, Wojciech Maliszewski","doi":"10.1007/0-387-25766-7_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-25766-7_2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122985431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driving Factors of Efficiency of CEE Capital Markets (Part III)","authors":"Miriam Ratkovicova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1436348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1436348","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper I investigated the driving factors of integration of emerging capital markets into the global market. First, I analyzed the level of integration/segmentation of selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries using the methods of correlation analysis, cointegration, and CAPM. Second, I searched for the reason(s) of substantial variance of the level of integration/segmentation among the countries and throughout the time. I compared two different factors, which both might cause such differences, analyzing the problem from both static and dynamic point of views. I tried to answer the question, whether there is a causal relationship between the fluctuation of the level of integration/segmentation of a particular market within a pre-defined time frame and its economical (and political) performance. Or, alternatively, whether the decisive factor is more static than dynamic: the market size predetermines the level of integration that the country is able to achieve. This paper was initiated by confronting results of three previous studies. Three students of Central European University have analyzed the subject of CEE capital market integration using different methodologies and timeframes and have arrived at different conclusions. Maria Haroutounian (1997) concludes her MA Thesis \"Risk Exposure of Transition Equity Markets and their Integration into World Capital Markets\" with the statement that all emerging markets (as represented by the Visegrad group) are becoming more and more integrated into world capital portfolio. On the other hand, Tigran Minasian (1998) widened his sample to several CEE countries and compared them on the market-size basis. The final result of his study was that large emerging countries are becoming more integrated into the global market, while small markets are becoming more segmented. The last research, conducted by Miriam Ratkovicová (1998) analyzed the time fluctuation of the level of integration of emerging capital markets and was concluded with the result that the level of a market's integration/segmentation is directly dependent on the country's economic performance. These papers analyzed other aspects of equity markets as well, which are not going to be dealt with here. Conclusively, the aim of this paper was to analyze the results of the above mentioned papers, to update their models and reach a consensus in answering the question of where the equity markets of emerging Europe are going.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127725469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}