CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Informal Employment and Wages in Poland","authors":"J. Liwiński","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3873986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3873986","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.Design/methodology/approach The author employs the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. The author uses two definitions of informal employment: (1) employment without a written agreement and (2) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, he uses a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.FindingsAfter controlling for observed heterogeneity, the author finds that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126431575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report","authors":"G. Poniatowski, Adam Śmietanka, M. Bonch-Osmolovskiy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3744157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3744157","url":null,"abstract":"This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).The Policy Gap and its components remained stable. For the EU overall, the average Policy Gap level was 44.24 percent. Of this, in 2018, 10.07 percentage points were due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap) and 34.17 were due to the application of exemptions without the right to deduct.The results of the econometric analysis show that the VAT Gap is influenced by a group of factors relating to the current economic conditions, institutional environment, and economic structure as well as to the measures and actions of tax administrations. Out of a broad set of tested variables, GDP growth and general government balance appeared to explain a substantial set of VAT Gap variation across time and countries. Within the control of tax administrations, share of IT expenditure proved to have the highest statistical significance in explaining the size of the VAT Gap. In addition, the VAT Gap appeared to be inter-related with the values of risky imports of goods, indicating the role of fraud in driving the overall share of the VAT Gap.Since the COVID-19 recession will likely have a dire impact on the EU economies, the VAT Gap in 2020 is forecasted to increase. If the EU economy contracts by 7.4 percent in 2020 and the general government deficit jumps as forecasted in the Spring Forecast of the European Commission, the Gap could increase by 4.1 percentage points year-over year up to 13.7 percent","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123022277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3678015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3678015","url":null,"abstract":"The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its inter-national role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractive-ness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125750903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financing for the Polish Economy: Prospects and Threats (Finansowanie polskiej gospodarki: perspektywy i zagrożenia)","authors":"Andrzej Halesiak, Ernest Pytlarczyk, Stefan Kawalec, M. Wieckowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3410404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3410404","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English Abstract:</b> In a properly functioning economy, finance has important role to play in making main sectors of the economy – production, trade, services – to thrive. One of the most important – and often unappreciated – channels by which finance affects the processes taking place in the real sector is the selection of investment projects. It is banks and financial intermediaries that to a great degree decide which projects are carried out in the economy at a given moment, and which are not. If financial institutions are excessively conservative (which today is often an effect of the tight regulatory environment), they will prefer low-risk projects with high levels of collateral (e.g. mortgage loans). A financial system oriented this way will rarely be a source of problems, but at the same time not inclined to finance innovative projects with high potential to benefit the economy. Thus for any economy, a very important question is whether its regulatory framework smartly balances both of these aspects: financial system safety and the need to take on risk.<br><br>When analyzing the functioning of the financial system, it’s worth noting the gradual blurring of certain traditional boundaries. While decades ago households were the main source of savings in the economy, and the borrowers were enterprises and the public sector, today both households and companies are on both sides, as suppliers and receivers of capital. The boundary between the functioning of banks and capital markets is also increasingly blurred. Today banks operate broadly through the capital market, both as acquirers of securities and as issuers.<br><br>One area that has been developing dynamically in recent years is the flow of financial resources bypassing traditional intermediaries: direct lending through the peer-to-peer (P2P - direct financing of a project by business partners) and crowdfunding platforms (fundraising by collecting money online).<br><br><b>Polish Abstract:</b> W dobrze funkcjonującej gospodarce finanse mają przede wszystkim charakter wspierający – umożliwiają rozwój produkcji, handlu, usług itd. Jednym z najbardziej istotnych – a często niedocenianych - kanałów poprzez który oddziałują one na procesy zachodzące w sferze realnej, jest do­konywanie przez instytucje finansowe selekcji projektów inwestycyjnych. To właśnie banki i pośrednicy finansowi w dużej mierze decydują o tym, które projekty są, a które nie są w gospodarce w danym momencie realizowane. Jeśli instytucje finansowe charakteryzuje nadmierny konserwa­tyzm (w dzisiejszych czasach często pochodna ograniczeń regulacyjnych), to będą preferować bezpieczne projekty o wysokim poziomie zabezpieczeń (np. kredyty hipotecz­ne). Tak ukierunkowany system finansowy nie będzie z re­guły źródłem problemów, ale równocześnie nie będzie też skłonny finansować innowacyjnych projektów o dużym po­tencjale korzyści dla gospodarki. Dlatego też bardzo istot­ną kwestią z punktu widzenia danej gospodarki jest to, aby ","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"192 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114223498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Recovery and Inflation","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3168510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3168510","url":null,"abstract":"In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"219 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123027475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Not to Get Stuck in the Middle Lessons for the Commonwealth of Independent States from Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"Kamil Pruchnik, J. Zowczak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3065968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3065968","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127549527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Final Report","authors":"Iakov Frizis, Krzysztof Głowacki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3076828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3076828","url":null,"abstract":"The paper is a summary of the exchange of knowledge and experience that took place in the course of the project “Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine” co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016–2017. Five institutions took part in the project: Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw, Poland), Center for Social and Economic Research Ukraine (Kiev, Ukraine), INEKO Institute for Economic and Social Reform (Bratislava, Slovak Republic), EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy (Prague, Czech Republic), and Kopint-Tarki Institute for Economic Research (Budapest, Hungary).","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114860906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future Development of EU Exports in a Global Context","authors":"Robert Stehrer, S. Leitner, Roman Stöllinger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3076869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3076869","url":null,"abstract":"Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Using a gravity-based approach, this report examines the future profile of European Union (EU) world market shares at the aggregate and sectoral level. It further points towards the changing patterns of trade within the EU. Based on the results, some conclusions on EU industrial policy are drawn.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131203863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Economic Growth in Europe, or, the Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries (O wzroście gospodarczym w Europie, czyli niepewna perspektywa rozwoju krajów zachodnich)","authors":"A. Rzońca, Aleksander Laszek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900852","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: Growth in the European Union since the outbreak of the global financial crisis is slower (1) than before the crisis, (2) than the trend would indicate, (3) than forecast and (4) than in the United States. The factors driving its weakness lie more on the supply side than the demand side. The loss of potential output after the crisis was exacerbated by inequalities from before the crisis; fiscal stimulus from 2007-2009, increasing public expenditure despite the lack of fiscal space; excessive liquidity support for banks; and inflexibility of the market for goods at the moment the crisis broke out. The problems with growth may deepen and become permanent if social support for anti-market parties continues to grow. Extremist parties are supported by divergence among the countries of the “old” EU and the slowdown of convergence in the new member states, as well as tendencies related to inequality, in particular the reduction of households’ mobility between income groups.Polish Abstract: Wzrost w Unii Europejskiej od wybuchu globalnego kryzysu finansowego jest wolniejszy (1) niz przed kryzysem, (2) niz wynikaloby to z trendu, (3) niz przewidywano i (4) niz w Stanach Zjednoczonych. Jego slabośc wynika bardziej z powodow podazowych niz popytowych. Strate w produkcie potencjalnym po kryzysie zwiekszaly: nierownowagi sprzed kryzysu, stymulacja fiskalna z lat 2007-2009 zwiekszająca wydatki publiczne pomimo braku przestrzeni fiskalnej, nadzwyczajne wsparcie plynnościowe dla bankow oraz sztywnośc rynku dobr w momencie wybuchu kryzysu. Problemy ze wzrostem mogą sie poglebic i utrwalic, jezeli nadal bedzie roslo poparcie spoleczne dla partii antyrynkowych. Partiom skrajnym sprzyja dywergencja w krajach „starej” Unii i spowolnienie konwergencji w nowych krajach czlonkowskich, jak rowniez tendencje dotyczące nierowności, w tym zwlaszcza zmniejszenie mobilności gospodarstw domowych miedzy grupami dochodowymi.144. Zeszyt mBank-CASE sklada sie z glownej publikacji Andrzeja Rzoncy i Aleksandra Łaszka pt. \"O wzroście gospodarczym w Europie, czyli niepewna perspektywa rozwoju krajow zachodnich\" oraz komentarz Andrzeja Halesiaka \"Wzrost gospodarczy w Europie Zachodniej – perspektywa inwestycji\".","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128081871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fiscal Sustainability: Conceptual, Institutional, and Policy Issues","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2829513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2829513","url":null,"abstract":"The chronic nature of sovereign debt crises has resulted in the growing interest of analysts in finding both their real causes and the mechanisms of cross-country transmission - the so-called contagion effect. In this paper, we will try to answer the frequently asked question: what is the “safe” level of public debt (i.e. what level helps to avoid the risk of sovereign default)? Simultaneously, we will address various conceptual, institutional, and statistical dilemmas related to the definition and measurement of public debt.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126465696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}