CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Tax Reforms in Transition Economies – A Mixed Record and Complex Future Agenda","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski, Magdalena M. Tomczynska","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1440219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1440219","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the diversified picture of the tax systems and tax reforms in the former communist countries after the first decade of their transition from a centrally planned to a market economy system. While CEB countries are seriously advanced in synchronization of their tax systems with those of the EU, the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) suffer a lot of instability and distortions in this sphere (and Balkan countries staying in the middle between both groups). Thus, the CIS countries, including Russia and Ukraine, face a challenge of further substantial tax reforms related to list of existing taxes and quasi-tax obligations, construction of basic taxes, tax administration and procedures, issue of fiscal federalism (particularly in Russia), and many others. The authors' intention is to give the overall characteristics of the tax systems in two broad groups of countries (i.e. the EU candidates, and the CIS+ countries) with a special emphasis devoted to principal shortcomings of tax regulations, and remaining challenges of tax reform.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"130 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126606696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of Some Emerging and Transition Economies","authors":"M. Jakubiak","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1445379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1445379","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the measurement of a contemporaneous currency crisis. The analysis covers 14 \"emerging\" or \"transforming\" economies that experienced episodes of currency crises over the last decade. It adds to well-known examples relatively littleknown evidence on the crisis depth in some of the CIS countries. Following the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition of a currency crisis, the emphasis is primarily put on the examination of changes in relative reserves, exchange rates, and real interest rates during periods of exchange rate pressure. Other measures of the depth of a currency crisis as well as measures of external vulnerability are also discussed. The findings support the adequacy of the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition in analyzing crisis developments in emerging economies.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"54 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130924110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Lisbon Strategy at Midterm: Expectations and Reality","authors":"P. Lenain, Vicente Royuela","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1414888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1414888","url":null,"abstract":"CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research inspired an extensive discussion on the Lisbon Strategy, its goals and objectives, successes and failures. The fervent debate, which took place in Warsaw at the end of 2004, investigated the future of the Strategy in Europe and Poland. The publication, which we are proud to present, is a result of this discussion. The Polish context for achieving the Lisbon goals was explored at a conference on December 9, 2004 entitled “The Lisbon Strategy in Poland: Directions of Necessary Reforms”. Earlier, however, answering the question whether the Lisbon objectives successfully support competitiveness in Europe was of chief concern to a group of scholars and specialists attending the conference entitled “Lisbon Strategy as an Effective Tool of Increasing Competitiveness in Europe?” (The meeting took place in Warsaw on November 8, 2004). The conference dialogue resulted in systematic and inquisitive debate on the causes of successes and failures of the Lisbon Strategy against the background of the current economy in the united Europe. The perspectives for the future implementation of the Strategy and its desired effects also proved to be of great concern. The arguments presented by the authors of the present publication continue the discussion, which has now been enriched by the contributions by conference participants.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120976402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting Currency Crises, the Ultimate Significance of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Linear Specifications with Nonlinear Extensions","authors":"Marcin Sasin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1440222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1440222","url":null,"abstract":"Informative content of macroeconomic fundamentals with respect to currency crisis prediction is reassessed for the period of 1990s on the panel of 46 developed and emerging economies. In the first part the paper develops a model for currency crisis prediction. The distinction is made between variables emphasized by 'first generation' and 'second generation' models. Special attention is directed towards multiple equilibria and contagion phenomena. Considerable amount of predictability is found, particularly on behalf of standard leading crisis indicators, such as overvaluation of the real exchange rate and the level of foreign exchange reserves. Multiple equilibria don't get much support from the data while contagion effect is obviously working – apparently through various channels. In the second part the relationship between model specification and the significance of coefficients is investigated in the attempt to ultimately evaluate what can be expected from empirical implementation of crisis prediction. An average predictive power of such models and employed variables is assessed.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134365122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Economics of the 'European Neighbourhood Policy': An Initial Assessment","authors":"Susanne Milcher, B. Slay","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1441851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1441851","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the general framework of the EU’s emerging relationship with its new neighbours and investigates the potential economic impact of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), both for the EU itself and for its neighbours. In particular, it seeks to develop an answer to the question of whether the ENP is sufficiently attractive so as to induce the governments in neighbourhood countries to adopt (or accelerate the adoption of) the types of economic and governance reforms that were implemented in the new member states during their accession processes. Although the specifics of the ENP are still being developed, the lack of incentives as regards to unclear accession to the EU is identified as the main weakness of the ENP. Economically, the ENP seeks to ease trade restrictions through the implementation of legislative approximation and convergence with EU standards, before accessing the EU’s single market can become a reality. Positively though, is that the access to the single market could improve significantly under the ENP. As experienced by the Central European states, FDI is instrumental to transform the economies of the Western CIS and the Caucasus. The ENP can be a supportive framework for improving investor confidence. Likewise, the new European Neighbourhood Instrument can add more coherence in technical assistance, and provide more financial support for creating capacities for trade infrastructures and institutional and private sector development. Finally, measures to promote increased labour migration between the new neighbours and the enlarged EU may be worth to put on the agenda for the future development and impact of the ENP.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"302 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130053395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative Notes on Pension Developments and Reforms in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania","authors":"S. Gomulka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1445375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1445375","url":null,"abstract":"Pension systems and pension expenditures show large variations among countries worldwide. This variation appears to reflect mainly demographic factors and differences in the level of insurance protection, the latter tending to increase with the level of development. The focus of this paper is pension developments and reforms in the four transition countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania during the 1990s. Our major factual finding is that Poland and Romania are clear outliers among the FOUR in terms of key pensions statistics. The paper concludes that the greater pension expenditures in Hungary and Poland are in part inherited (especially in Poland) and in part caused by the more radical restructuring reforms, and that these greater expenditures have in turn prompted these two countries to start replacing gradually their PAYG-DB system with a three-pillar mixed system, with private pension funds constituting a large component of the reformed system.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131737355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economics: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1432337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1432337","url":null,"abstract":"Currency crises have been recorded for a few hundreds years but their frequency increased in the second half of the 20th century along with a rapid expansion of a number of fiat currencies. Increased integration and sophistication of financial markets brought new forms and more global character of the crises episodes. Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1994) propose the operational definition, which helps to select the episodes most closely fitting the intuitive understanding of a currency crisis (a sudden decline in confidence towards a specific currency). Among fundamental causes of currency crises one can point to the excessive expansion and over-borrowing of the public and private sectors, and inconsistent and nontransparent economic policies. Over-expansion and overborrowing manifest themselves in an excessive current account deficit, currency overvaluation, increasing debt burden, insufficient international reserves, and deterioration of other frequently analyzed indicators. Inconsistent policies (including the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes) increase market uncertainty and can trigger speculative attack against the domestic currency. After a crisis has already happened, the ability to manage economic policies in a consistent and credible way becomes crucial for limiting the crisis' scope, duration and negative consequences. Among the dilemmas that the authorities face in such circumstances is the decision on readjustment of an exchange rate regime, as the previous regime is usually the first institutional victim of any successful speculative attack. The consequences of currency crises are usually severe and typically involve output and employment losses, fall in real incomes of a population, deep contraction in investment and capital flight. Also the credibility of domestic economic policies is ruined. In some cases a crisis can serve as the economic and political catharsis: devaluation helps to temporarily restore competitiveness and improve a current account position, the crisis shock brings the new, reform-oriented government, and politicians may draw some lessons for future. The responsible macroeconomic policy can help to diminish a risk of an occurrence of a currency crisis. It involves balanced and transparent fiscal accounts, proper monetary-fiscal policy mix, and low inflation, avoiding indexation of nominal variables and intermediate monetary/ exchange rate regimes. On the microeconomic level key elements include privatization, demonopolization and introduction of efficient competition policy, prudential regulation of the financial sector, trade openness, and simple, fair and transparent tax system. All the above should help elimination of soft budget constraints, overborrowing on the side of both private and public sector and moral hazard problems. All these measures need to be strengthened by legal reforms, efficient and fair judiciary system, implementation of international accounting, reporting and disclosure standa","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133488931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Business Climate in CIS Countries","authors":"V. Dubrovskiy, Oleg Ustenko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1441924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1441924","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the quality of the business climate in the group of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) from the prospective of the level of development of entrepreneurship, and individual countries’ attractiveness to the foreign direct investments (FDI). The analysis suggests that the main obstacles for further improvements of the business climate in this group of countries are high level of corruption, inefficiency in the existing system of tax administration and regulation, discretionary implementation of custom and trade regulations, low level of property rights protection, and macroeconomic instability. Some explanations of the historical and institutional causes of these business impediments are provided. Although the net FDI inflow to CIS countries has been substantially increased since the time they gained independence, it’s still well bellow than in Central & Eastern Europe Countries (CEE). The number of private enterprises per capita vastly varies within the CIS countries, with some of them approaching the OECD level, but some else lagging far behind. FDI stocks also unequally distribute within the CIS group. Fuel exporting countries are better off than fuel importing countries, although the individual country’s business climate within two groups does not differ significantly. As a conclusion, paper suggests a number of concrete public policy recommendations aiming to improve business climate in the CIS region.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"41 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114296543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}