Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Power to the programmer: Modeller’s perspective on automating the setup of hydrodynamic models for Dutch water authorities","authors":"Janneke O. E. Remmers, A. Teuling, Ruben Dahm, Arthur Van Dam, L. Melsen","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18657","url":null,"abstract":"Use of models in decision making, for example in water management, requires confidence in the model and its outputs. Since choices in model setup affect model output, this confidence is affected by the modellers’ professional judgement. Computer programmers can use their expertise in coding to standardise some of the tasks associated with computational modelling. Therefore, centralized automation has the potential to ensure quality of modelling decisions. Since it is the modeller that makes the choices in the model set-up, it is important to understand how modellers perceive automation. To explore their perspectives, we conducted fourteen interviews with modellers at water authorities and consulting companies in the Netherlands. The transcripts were analysed through deductive and inductive content analysis. Our study reveals that automated modelling processes can improve efficiency, transparency and consistency, but only if certain requirements are met, such as good documentation, clear ownership, adequate maintenance, and frequent evaluation. Therefore, managing the risks and benefits of automation requires balancing the power between modellers and programmers.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"55 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141804552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Control variate Monte Carlo estimators based on sparse polynomial chaos expansions","authors":"Hui Duan, Giray Okten","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18568","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce two control variate Monte Carlo estimators where the control is based on the truncated sparse polynomial chaos expansion of the function in hand. We use the control variate estimators to estimate the lower and upper Sobol' indices in some applications, and compare them numerically with some of the best Monte Carlo estimators in the literature. The results suggest that in computationally expensive problems where a low-order polynomial chaos expansion is not an accurate approximation of the model but highly correlated with it, the control variate estimators are either the best or among the best in terms of efficiency.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"12 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138602292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kernel-based sensitivity indices for any model behavior and screening","authors":"M. Lamboni","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18566","url":null,"abstract":"Complex models are often used to understand interactions and drivers of human-induced and/or natural phenomena. It is worth identifying the input variables that drive the model output(s) in a given domain and/or govern specific model behaviors such as contextual indicators based on socioenvironmental models. Using the theory of multivariate weighted distributions to characterize specific model behaviors, we propose new measures of association between inputs and such behaviors. Our measures rely on sensitivity functionals (SFs) and kernel methods, including variance-based sensitivity analysis. The proposed ℓ1-based kernel indices account for interactions among inputs, higher-order moments of SFs, and their upper bounds are somehow equivalent to the Morris-type screening measures, including dependent elementary effects. Empirical kernel-based indices are derived, including their statistical properties for the computational issues, and numerical results are provided.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139289474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling agricultural innovations as a social-ecological phenomenon","authors":"Udita Sanga, Jineth Berrío-Martínez, Maja Schlüter‬","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18562","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural innovations involve both social and social-ecological dynamics where outcomes emerge from interactions of innovation actors embedded within their ecological environments. Neglecting the interconnected nature of social-ecological innovations can lead to a flawed understanding and assessment of innovations. In this paper, we present an empirically informed, stylized agent-based model of agricultural innovation systems in Mali, West Africa. The study aimed to understand the emergence of food security and income inequality outcomes through two distinct model structures: top-down, aid-driven (exogenous) innovation and bottom-up, community-driven (endogenous) innovation. Our research questions were: i) How does the inclusion of social-ecological interactions in the model affect food security and income inequality outcomes? ii) How do exogenous and endogenous mechanisms influence food insecurity and income inequality? iii) What are the conditions under which exogenous and endogenous mechanisms would improve food security? The structural design of the model was based on a combination of theory, empirics, and mapping of social-ecological dynamics within innovation systems. Using the Social-Ecological Action Situation framework, we mapped the social, social-ecological, and ecological interactions that jointly produce food security outcomes. The exploratory model analysis reveals three key insights: i) Incorporation of social-ecological interactions influences model outcomes. Scenarios with social-ecological interactions showed a stronger relationship between income inequality and food security, lower levels of food security, and higher levels of income inequality than scenarios with social interactions. ii) Endogenous mechanism leads to higher food security and income inequality than the exogenous mechanism. iii) Bidirectional outreach is more effective than unidirectional outreach in improving food security. Inclusion of social-ecological dynamics and interactions such as the role of climate risk perception, social learning and formation of innovation beliefs and desires is key for modelling and analysis of agricultural innovations.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139350514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the quality of land system models: moving from valibration to evaludation","authors":"Calum Brown, J. Millington, M. Rounsevell","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18434","url":null,"abstract":"Reviews suggest that evaluation of land system models is largely inadequate, with undue reliance on a vague concept of validation. Efforts to improve and standardise evaluation practices have so far had limited effect. In this article we examine the issues surrounding land system model evaluation and consider the relevance of the TRACE framework for environmental model documentation. In doing so, we discuss the application of a comprehensive range of evaluation procedures to existing models, and the value of each specific procedure. We develop a tiered checklist for going beyond what seems to be a common practice of ‘valibration’ (the repeated variation of model parameter values to achieve agreement with data) to achieving ‘evaludation’ (the rigorous, broad-based assessment of model quality and validity). We propose the Land Use Change – TRACE (LUC-TRACE) model evaludation protocol and argue that engagement with a comprehensive protocol of this kind (even if not this particular one) is valuable in ensuring that land system model results are interpreted appropriately. We also suggest that the main benefit of such formalised structures is to assist the process of critical thinking about model utility, and that the variety of legitimate modelling approaches precludes universal tests of whether a model is ‘valid’. Evaludation is therefore a detailed and subjective process requiring the sustained intellectual engagement of model developers and users.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129514335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recognizing political influences in participatory social-ecological systems modeling","authors":"T. Lim, P. Glynn, G. Shenk, Patrick Bitterman, J. Guillaume, John C. Little, D. Webster","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18509","url":null,"abstract":"Stakeholder participation in social-ecological systems (SES) modeling is increasingly considered a desirable way to elicit diverse sources of knowledge about SES behavior and to promote inclusive decision-making in SES. Understanding how participatory modeling processes function in the context of long-term adaptive management of SES may allow for better design of participatory processes to achieve the intended outcomes of inclusionary knowledge, representativeness, and social learning, while avoiding unintended outcomes. Long-term adaptive management contexts often include political influences -- attempts to shift or preserve power structures and authority, and efforts to represent the political and economic interests of stakeholders -- in the computer models that are used to shape policy making and implementation. In this research, we examine a period that included a major transition in the watershed model used for management of the Chesapeake Bay in the United States. The Chesapeake Bay watershed model has been in development since the 1980s, and is considered by many to be an exemplary case of participatory modeling. We use documentary analysis and interviews with participants involved in the model application and development transition to reveal a variety of ways in which participatory modeling may be subject to different kinds of political influences, some of which resulted in unintended outcomes, including: perceptions of difficulty updating the model in substantive ways, “gaming” of the model/participatory process by stakeholders, and increasing resistance against considering uncertainty in the system not captured by the model. This research suggests unintended or negative outcomes may be associated with both participatory decision-making and stakeholder learning even though they are so often touted as the benefits of participatory modeling. We end with a hypothesis that further development of a theory of computer model governance to bridge model impact and broader theories of environmental governance at the science-policy interface may result in improved SES modeling outcomes.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114989188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scale decisions and good practices in socio-environmental systems modelling: guidance and documentation during problem scoping and model formulation","authors":"Hsiao-Hsuan Wang, G. van Voorn, W. Grant, F. Zare, C. Giupponi, Patrick Steinmann, Birgit Müller, S. Elsawah, H. van Delden, I. Athanasiadis, Zhanli Sun, W. Jager, John C. Little, A. Jakeman","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18563","url":null,"abstract":"Models of socio-environmental or social-ecological systems (SES) commonly address problems requiring interdisciplinary scientific expertise and input from a heterogeneous group of stakeholders. In SES modelling multiple interactions occur on different scales among various phenomena. These scale phenomena include the technical, such as system variables, process detail, inputs and outputs, which most often require spatial, temporal, thematic and organisational choices. From a good practice and project efficiency perspective, the problem scoping and conceptual model formulation phase of modelling is the one to address well from the outset. During this phase, intense and substantive discussions should arise regarding appropriate scales at which to represent the different phenomena. Although the details of these discussions influence the path of model development, they are seldom documented and as a result often forgotten. We draw upon personal experience with existing protocols and communications in recent literature to propose preliminary guidelines for documenting these early discussions about the scale(s) of the studied phenomena. Our guidelines aim to aid modelling group members in building and capturing the richness of their rationale for scoping and scale decisions. The resulting transcripts are intended to promote transparency of modelling decisions and provide essential support for the justification of the final model for its intended use. They also facilitate adaptive modifications of the pathway of model development via retracing decisions and iterative reflection upon alternative scale options.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":" 27","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113948807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Science-design loop for the design of resilient urban landscapes","authors":"Nicolas Salliou, T. Arborino, J. Nassauer, D. Salmerón, P. Urech, D. Vollmer, A. Grêt-Regamey","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18543","url":null,"abstract":"Urban landscapes face significant challenges, as they must transform towards sustainability while remaining resilient. Urban landscape transformation is a complex task for landscape designers. They must not only create new solutions for landscapes but also ensure that their proposals are capable to deliver and maintain key ecosystems services over time and especially after shocks. In practice, designers must increase their dialogue with scientists and engineers to include expertise on ecosystems functions and services. Through science-design feedback loops, designers can be challenged by scientists’ models and simulations and thus create informed designs. Lastly, stakeholders also catalyse key steps of such a process, in particular by providing local expertise as well as co-constructing and validating the informed designs. In this paper, we introduce a roadmap, centred on an intensive interdisciplinary dialogue – a science-design loop. We illustrate the relevance of this roadmap with the analysis of five case studies about flood management and blue-green infrastructures. We analyse them according to the main steps of our roadmap and with the support of key interviews with experienced practitioners. First, this analysis provides an overview of best practices and challenges in the current urban landscape design world. But above all, we show the relevance of the proposed roadmap to muster science and design in a balanced manner in urban transformations.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126680745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the micro-level dynamics of water reuse adoption by farmers and the impacts on local water resources using an agent-based model","authors":"F. Shoushtarian, M. Negahban-Azar, A. Crooks","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18148","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural water reuse is gaining momentum to address freshwater scarcity worldwide. The main objective of this paper was to investigate the micro-level dynamics of water reuse adoption by farmers at the watershed scale. An agent-based model was developed to simulate agricultural water consumption and socio-hydrological dynamics. Using a case study in California, the developed model was tested, and the results showed that agricultural water reuse adoption by farmers is a gradual and time-consuming process. In addition, results also showed that agricultural water reuse could significantly decrease the water shortage (by 57.7%) and groundwater withdrawal (by 74.1%). Furthermore, our results suggest that recycled water price was the most influential factor in total recycled water consumption by farmers. Results also showed how possible freshwater shortage or groundwater withdrawal regulations could increase recycled water use by farmers. The developed model can significantly help assess how the current water reuse management practices and strategies would affect the sustainability of agricultural water resources.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121356025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Applications of GIS and remote sensing in public participation and stakeholder engagement for watershed management","authors":"N. Quinn, V. Sridharan, J. Ramirez-Avila, S. Imen, Huilin Gao, Rocky Talchabhadel, Saurav Kumar, W. McDonald","doi":"10.18174/sesmo.18149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18149","url":null,"abstract":"The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies for the development of water quality management programs and for post-implementation assessments has increased dramatically in the past decade. This increase in adoption has been made more accessible through the interfaces of many popular software tools used in the regulation and assessment of water quality. Customized applications of these tools will increase, as ease of access and affordability of directly monitored and remotely sensed datasets improve over time. Concurrently, there is a need for inclusive participatory engagement with stakeholders to achieve solutions to current watershed management challenges. This paper explores the potential of these GIS and remote sensing datasets, tools, models, and immersive engagement technologies from other domains, for improving public participation and stakeholder engagement throughout the watershed planning process. To do so, an initial review is presented about the use of GIS and remote sensing in watershed management and its role in impairment identification, model development, and planning and implementation. Then, ways in which GIS and remote sensing can be integrated with stakeholder engagement through (1) leveraging GIS and remote sensing datasets, and (2) stakeholder engagement approaches including outreach and education, modeler-led development, and stakeholder-led involvement and feedback, are discussed. Finally, future perspectives on the potential for transforming public participation and stakeholder engagement in the watershed management process through applications of GIS and remote sensing are presented.","PeriodicalId":166291,"journal":{"name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130216494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}