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Pay with Promises or Pay as You Go? Lessons from the Death Spiral of Detroit 承诺付款还是现付现付?底特律死亡螺旋的教训
Staff Report Pub Date : 2014-07-14 DOI: 10.21034/sr.501
T. Holmes, L. Ohanian
{"title":"Pay with Promises or Pay as You Go? Lessons from the Death Spiral of Detroit","authors":"T. Holmes, L. Ohanian","doi":"10.21034/sr.501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.501","url":null,"abstract":"As part of compensation, municipal employees typically receive promises of future benefits. Motivated by the recent bankruptcy of Detroit, we develop a model of the equilibrium size of a city and use it to analyze how pay-with-promises schemes interact with city growth. The paper examines the circumstances under which a death spiral arises, where cutbacks of city services and increases in taxes lead to an exodus of residents, compounding financial distress. The model is put to work to analyze issues such as the welfare effects of having cities absorb pension risk and how unions affect the likelihood of a death spiral.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123773655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A 14-Variable Mixed-Frequency VAR Model ∗ 一个14变量混合频率VAR模型
Staff Report Pub Date : 2013-12-19 DOI: 10.21034/sr.493
Kenneth R. Beauchemin
{"title":"A 14-Variable Mixed-Frequency VAR Model ∗","authors":"Kenneth R. Beauchemin","doi":"10.21034/sr.493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.493","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes recent modifications to the mixed-frequency model vector autoregression (MF-VAR) constructed by Schorfheide and Song (2012). The changes to the model are restricted solely to the set of variables included in the model; all other aspects of the model remain unchanged. Forecast evaluations are conducted to gauge the accuracy of the revised model to standard benchmarks and the original model.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131340397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Aggregate labor supply 总劳动供给
Staff Report Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.21034/QR.3521
E. Prescott, Johanna Wallenius
{"title":"Aggregate labor supply","authors":"E. Prescott, Johanna Wallenius","doi":"10.21034/QR.3521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.3521","url":null,"abstract":"There have been tremendous advances in macroeconomics, following the introduction of labor supply into the field. Today it is widely acknowledged that labor supply matters for many key economic issues, particularly for business cycles and tax policy analysis. However, the extent to which labor supply matters for such questions depends on the aggregate labor supply elasticity?that is, the sensitivity of the time allocation between market and non-market activities to changes in the effective wage. The magnitude of the aggregate labor supply elasticity has been the subject of much debate for several decades. In this paper we review this debate and conclude that the elasticity of labor supply of the aggregate household is much higher than the elasticity of the identical households being aggregated. The aggregate household utility function differs from individuals? utility functions for the same reason the aggregate production function differs from individual firms? production functions being aggregated. The differences in individual and aggregate supply elasticities are what aggregation theory predicts.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128459299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
New and larger costs of monopoly and tariffs 新的更大的垄断和关税成本
Staff Report Pub Date : 2012-09-11 DOI: 10.21034/sr.468
James A. Schmitz
{"title":"New and larger costs of monopoly and tariffs","authors":"James A. Schmitz","doi":"10.21034/sr.468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.468","url":null,"abstract":"Fifty-eight years ago, Harberger (1954) estimated that the costs of monopoly, which resulted from misallocation of resources across industries, were trivial. Others showed the same was true for tariffs. This research soon led to the consensus that monopoly costs are of little significance—a consensus that persists to this day. ; This paper reports on a new literature that takes a different approach to the costs of monopoly. It examines the costs of monopoly and tariffs within industries. In particular, it examines the histories of industries in which a monopoly is destroyed (or tariffs greatly reduced) and the industry transitions quickly from monopoly to competition. If there are costs to monopoly and high tariffs within industries, we should be able to see these costs whittled away as the monopoly is destroyed. ; In contrast to the prevailing consensus, this new research has identified significant costs of monopoly. Monopoly (and high tariffs) is shown to significantly lower productivity within establishments. It also leads to misallocation within industry: resources are transferred from high to low productivity establishments. ; From these histories a common theme (or theory) emerges as to why monopoly is costly. When a monopoly is created, “rents” are created. Conflict emerges among shareholders, managers, and employees of the monopoly as they negotiate how to divide these rents. Mechanisms are set up to split the rents. These mechanisms are often means to reduce competition among members of the monopoly. Although the mechanisms divide rents, they also destroy them (by leading to low productivity and misallocation).","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116942266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The Economic Performance of Cartels: Evidence from the New Deal U.S. Sugar Manufacturing Cartel, 1934-74 卡特尔的经济表现:来自1934- 1974年新政美国制糖卡特尔的证据
Staff Report Pub Date : 2009-11-01 DOI: 10.21034/sr.437
Benjamin Bridgman, Shi Qi, James A. Schmitz
{"title":"The Economic Performance of Cartels: Evidence from the New Deal U.S. Sugar Manufacturing Cartel, 1934-74","authors":"Benjamin Bridgman, Shi Qi, James A. Schmitz","doi":"10.21034/sr.437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.437","url":null,"abstract":"We study the U.S. sugar manufacturing cartel that was created during the New Deal. This was a legal-cartel that lasted 40 years (1934-74). As a legal-cartel, the industry was assured widespread adherence to domestic and import sales quotas (given it had access to government enforcement powers). But it also meant accepting government-sponsored cartel-provisions. These provisions significantly distorted production at each factory and also where the industry was located. These distortions were reflected in, for example, a declining industry recovery rate, that is, the pounds of white sugar produced per ton of beets. It declined from about 310 pounds in 1934 to 240 pounds in 1974. The cartel provisions also distorted the location of industry. For example, it kept production in California and the Far West. Since the cartel ended in 1974, California's share of sugar production has dropped dramatically.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123759651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Superstores or Mom and Pops? Technology Adoption and Productivity Differences in Retail Trade 超市还是夫妻店?零售业的技术采用与生产率差异
Staff Report Pub Date : 2009-06-01 DOI: 10.21034/sr.428
David Lagakos
{"title":"Superstores or Mom and Pops? Technology Adoption and Productivity Differences in Retail Trade","authors":"David Lagakos","doi":"10.21034/sr.428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.428","url":null,"abstract":"I document that cross-country productivity differences in retail trade, which employs around 20% of workers, are accounted for in large part by compositional differences. In richer countries, most retailing is done in modern stores, with high measured output per worker, whereas in developing countries, retail trade is dominated by less-productive traditional stores. I hypothesize that developing countries rationally adopt few modern stores since car ownership rates are low. A simple quantitative model of home production supports the role of cars in determining the composition of retail technologies used and retail-sector productivity differences across countries.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"1068 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120860354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 26
Transportation and Development: Insights from the U.S., 1840-1860 交通与发展:来自美国的见解，1840-1860
Staff Report Pub Date : 2009-05-13 DOI: 10.21034/sr.425
Berthold Herrendorf, James A. Schmitz, Arilton Teixeira
{"title":"Transportation and Development: Insights from the U.S., 1840-1860","authors":"Berthold Herrendorf, James A. Schmitz, Arilton Teixeira","doi":"10.21034/sr.425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.425","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of large transportation costs on economic development. Since reliable data for developing countries are hard to come by, we go back in time to the Midwest and the Northeast of the U.S. This is a natural case to study because starting from 1840 decent data is available showing that the two regions shared key characteristics with today's developing countries and that transportation costs were large and then came way down. To disentangle the effects of the large reduction in transportation costs from those of other changes that happened during 1840{1860, we build a model that speaks to the distribution of people across regions and across the sectors of production. We find that the large reduction in transportation costs was a quantitatively important force behind the settlement of the Midwest and the regional specialization that concentrated agriculture in the Midwest and industry in the Northeast. Moreover, we find that it led to the convergence of the regional per capita incomes measured in current regional prices and that it increased real GDP per capita. However, the increase in real GDP per capita is considerably smaller than that resulting from the productivity growth in the nontransportation sectors.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125237207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Trend and Cycle in Bond Premia 债券溢价的趋势和周期
Staff Report Pub Date : 2009-03-09 DOI: 10.21034/sr.424
Monika Piazzesi, Martin Schneider
{"title":"Trend and Cycle in Bond Premia","authors":"Monika Piazzesi, Martin Schneider","doi":"10.21034/sr.424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.424","url":null,"abstract":"Common statistical measures of bond risk premia are volatile and countercyclical. This paper uses survey data on interest rate forecasts to construct subjective bond risk premia. Subjective premia are less volatile and not very cyclical; instead they are high only around the early 1980s. The reason for the discrepancy is that survey forecasts of interest rates are made as if both the level and the slope of the yield curve are more persistent than under common statistical models. The paper then proposes a consumption based asset pricing model with learning to explain jointly the difference between survey and statistical forecasts, and the evolution of subjective premia. Adaptive learning gives rise to inertia in forecasts, as well as changes in conditional volatility that help understand both features.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116799179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 131
Using the general equilibrium growth model to study great depressions: a reply to Temin 用一般均衡增长模型研究大萧条:对特明的回复
Staff Report Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.21034/sr.418
Timothy J. Kehoe, Edward C. Prescott
{"title":"Using the general equilibrium growth model to study great depressions: a reply to Temin","authors":"Timothy J. Kehoe, Edward C. Prescott","doi":"10.21034/sr.418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.418","url":null,"abstract":"Three of the arguments made by Temin (2008) in his review of Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century are demonstrably wrong: that the treatment of the data in the volume is cursory; that the definition of great depressions is too general and, in particular, groups slow growth experiences in Latin America in the 1980s with far more severe great depressions in Europe in the 1930s; and that the book is an advertisement for the real business cycle methodology. Without these three arguments — which are the results of obvious conceptual and arithmetical errors, including copying the wrong column of data from a source — his review says little more than that he does not think it appropriate to apply our dynamic general equilibrium methodology to the study of great depressions, and he does not like the conclusion that we draw: that a successful model of a great depression needs to be able to account for the effects of government policy on productivity.","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129610979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Changes in the Distribution of Family Hours Worked Since 1950 1950年以来家庭工作时间分布的变化
Staff Report Pub Date : 2008-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/S1574-0129(08)00003-3
Ellen R. McGrattan, Richard Rogerson
{"title":"Changes in the Distribution of Family Hours Worked Since 1950","authors":"Ellen R. McGrattan, Richard Rogerson","doi":"10.1016/S1574-0129(08)00003-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0129(08)00003-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":164493,"journal":{"name":"Staff Report","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115247336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
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