Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries最新文献_第8页

Advanced RANS model for simulating high-pressure gas leaks and dispersion dynamics 模拟高压气体泄漏和扩散动力学的先进RANS模型

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105707

Bruno Góbi Santolin, Ramon Silva Martins, Márcio Ferreira Martins

{"title":"Advanced RANS model for simulating high-pressure gas leaks and dispersion dynamics","authors":"Bruno Góbi Santolin, Ramon Silva Martins, Márcio Ferreira Martins","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article reports three CFD models, RANS-based analysis, were improved to represent the primary phenomena associated with pressurized gas leakage in pipelines. These models were benchmarked against experimental data from the literature, focusing on depressurization, expansion, and dispersion. The enhancements to the RANS method included using a patch tool to separate the pipeline boundary from the atmosphere, allowing specific initial conditions to be assigned to mesh elements; automatically mesh adaptation to capture regions with significant velocity and pressure gradients accurately; implementing a source term in the transport equation to account for buoyancy effects related to density changes lied to the high-temperature gradient typical present in the referred phenomena — that was crucial for the Peng–Robinson real gas equation effectiveness. Qualitative and quantitative analyses reveal that enhanced models closely matched experimental results, demonstrating significant improvements over classical approaches, with maximum average percentage differences of 12.87 %, 90.52 %, and 53.10 % for depressurization, expansion, and dispersion, respectively. The delineated method provides a valuable approach for rapidly creating a database to predict potential outcomes of pressurized pipeline leaks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105707"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144522956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resilience assessment for urban utility tunnels under gas explosion scenarios 瓦斯爆炸情景下城市公用隧道恢复力评价

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105732

Xiangfei Wu , Ming Fu , Jingwu Wang , Longfei Hou , Hailun Zhu , Fei Tang

{"title":"Resilience assessment for urban utility tunnels under gas explosion scenarios","authors":"Xiangfei Wu , Ming Fu , Jingwu Wang , Longfei Hou , Hailun Zhu , Fei Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban utility tunnels (UUTs), essential for unified pipeline management, face heightened safety risks during gas leak and explosions. This paper presents a resilience assessment method that integrates Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and Bayesian Network (BN) to enhance system impact resistance and recovery. Expert surveys and literature reviews identify key gas explosion factors, forming a direct influence matrix to quantify their interrelationships. ISM stratifies these factors, highlighting critical indicators such as ventilation, alarm systems, pressure relief, and emergency response. The hierarchical structure is mapped to a BN, where node probabilities are assigned using conditional probability table (CPT), expert evaluations, and fuzzy set theory for dynamic resilience assessment. Case studies reveal a maximum resilience score of 73.8/100 and significant coupling effects among key factors, while sensitivity analysis confirms the model's robustness and accuracy. Based on diagnostics, the paper recommends strategies including optimizing ventilation design, adjusting alarm layouts, refining pressure relief configurations, and reducing emergency response times, thereby offering both theoretical and practical guidance for enhanced safety management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105732"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144548797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Study on the sensitivity and hazard of combustion and explosion in 175 MPa ultra-high pressure blowout gas mixtures 175 MPa超高压井喷混合气体燃烧爆炸敏感性及危险性研究

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105715

Shaobo Feng , Zhixiong Xu , Rui Zhou , Bo Zhou , Kun Huang , Qi Jing , Hongtao Jing

{"title":"Study on the sensitivity and hazard of combustion and explosion in 175 MPa ultra-high pressure blowout gas mixtures","authors":"Shaobo Feng , Zhixiong Xu , Rui Zhou , Bo Zhou , Kun Huang , Qi Jing , Hongtao Jing","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At present, the underground pressure of ultra-deep wells can reach up to 175 MPa, making blowouts under such conditions significantly more hazardous. However, the safety distance for the control system of the Christmas tree has not yet been effectively determined, primarily due to the lack of accurate assessment of the gas ignition conditions. To scientifically evaluate the blowout-induced combustion and explosion risks of ultra-high-pressure gas mixtures in ultra-deep wells, this study conducted ignition experiments and developed a theoretical prediction model to comprehensively analyze the ignition sensitivity parameters and explosion hazards of gas mixtures at 175 MPa. The results show that increasing the ignition energy from 20 mJ to 1000 mJ lowers the lower explosion limit (LEL) by 13.77 %, while raising the hot surface ignition temperature from 820 °C to 1600 °C reduces the LEL by 11.92 %. Under blowout conditions, the explosion overpressure decreases from 1.90 bar to 0.94 bar—cut nearly in half—and the flame temperature drops from 754.21 °C to 621.34 °C, indicating a substantial reduction in explosion severity. With increasing initial pressure, fewer cracks appear on the surface of spherical flames of the same radius, suggesting enhanced flame stability. Based on thermodynamic and heat transfer theory, a theoretical prediction model for the minimum ignition energy (MIE) of blowout gas mixtures was proposed, incorporating analysis of energy loss mechanisms. The model's prediction error remains within 30 %. This study provides a scientific foundation for the prevention and control of combustion and explosion risks associated with blowouts in ultra-high-pressure, deep oil and gas reservoirs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105715"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

PS-RTA method for safety responsibility management: An approach to promote competency of employees to fulfill safety responsibility PS-RTA安全责任管理方法：一种提升员工履行安全责任能力的方法

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105713

Xu Zhao, Yunhao Zhao, Jing Li, Zhihao Wang, Ruipeng Tong

{"title":"PS-RTA method for safety responsibility management: An approach to promote competency of employees to fulfill safety responsibility","authors":"Xu Zhao, Yunhao Zhao, Jing Li, Zhihao Wang, Ruipeng Tong","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effective implementation of workplace safety responsibilities constitutes the foundation for accident prevention and sustainable enterprise operations. This study proposes a closed-loop management methodology named the PS-RTA method (Position-Specific Responsibility-Training-Assessment), developed from the perspective of enhancing safety responsibility competency through a logical chain of \"responsibility assignment - competency development - performance evaluation.\" At the responsibility assignment level, the methodology introduces a position-specific safety responsibility checklist development approach that accounts for the interdependencies among safety responsibility and collaborative dependencies among responsible groups. For competency development, it integrates competency requirement analysis with training models to establish position-specific safety responsibility competency enhancement program. Regarding performance evaluation, the methodology combines position-specific assessment indicators with dynamic weighting mechanisms to formulate scientifically grounded safety responsibility competency evaluation method. Furthermore, the study presents a three-year implementation case involving China's largest oil and gas pipeline network operator, demonstrating how the PS-RTA methodology successfully established a \"One position, one list. One position, one training. One position, one assessment\" safety management model. The PS-RTA method effectively resolves longstanding challenges in ambiguous responsibility delineation and insufficient control mechanisms, providing enterprises with a systematic reference for strengthening safety governance through structured responsibility clarification, competency cultivation, and performance monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105713"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144481015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A physics-informed data-driven model applied for gas dispersion 应用于气体分散的物理数据驱动模型

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105703

Guilherme Milhoratti Lopes, Flávio Vasconcelos da Silva, Sávio Souza Venâncio Vianna

{"title":"A physics-informed data-driven model applied for gas dispersion","authors":"Guilherme Milhoratti Lopes, Flávio Vasconcelos da Silva, Sávio Souza Venâncio Vianna","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105703","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105703","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gas dispersion calculations are essential for numerous applications. While the gas flow behaviour can be theoretically described by the Navier–Stokes equations, obtaining numerical solutions poses significant computational challenges, due to the demanding computational time involved. In this study, we tackle these challenges by leveraging the power of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). PINNs integrate the underlying physics of the problem directly into the architecture of the neural network. By incorporating the Navier–Stokes equations within the framework of neural networks, our approach accounts for the fundamental physics governing gas dispersion. We use an in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code and commercial software to generate the required dataset. Our results demonstrate that the model is robust and capable of providing rapid solutions to gas dispersion problems. This efficiency is particularly noteworthy when compared to the considerable computational time required for traditional CFD calculations. Therefore, our approach offers a promising alternative for efficient and accurate gas dispersion simulations in process safety applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 105703"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Experimental study on the risk of explosion from hydrogen-air mixtures in confined and semi-confined concrete structures 密闭和半密闭混凝土结构中氢气-空气混合物爆炸危险性的试验研究

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105712

Unggi Yoon , Joonsik Kim , Byoungjik Park , Inju Hwang , Wookyung Kim , Yangkyun Kim

{"title":"Experimental study on the risk of explosion from hydrogen-air mixtures in confined and semi-confined concrete structures","authors":"Unggi Yoon , Joonsik Kim , Byoungjik Park , Inju Hwang , Wookyung Kim , Yangkyun Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105712","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105712","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When constructing hydrogen infrastructure in confined or semi-confined spaces, the significance of ventilation systems increases, necessitating measures to mitigate explosion damage. This study experimentally investigated the risk of hydrogen explosions in such spaces and analyzed the effectiveness of explosion venting in reducing internal explosion pressure. The experiments were conducted in concrete structures filled with a hydrogen-air mixture. The results showed that explosion venting substantially reduced internal explosion pressure; the maximum pressure difference between confined and semi-confined conditions was approximately 14.3 times, with significant pressure reduction observed under confined conditions due to the presence of a minimal vent area. In confined spaces, the probability of fatalities from concrete fragments generated by the blast wave, which could scatter up to approximately 80 m from the structure, ranged from 0.065 % to over 99 %, indicating a lethal threat to humans. Conversely, in semi-confined spaces equipped with explosion venting, the maximum external peak overpressure measured was 3.44 kPa, posing no significant harm to humans. These findings confirm that incorporating a minimal explosion vent area in confined or semi-confined spaces can significantly reduce both property and human damage by lowering internal explosion pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 105712"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Experimental study on the influence of three typical surfactants on the explosion characteristics of coal dust clouds 三种典型表面活性剂对煤尘云爆炸特性影响的实验研究

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105716

Lingfeng Wang , Zhengdong Liu , Jinglin Zhang , Zhenguo Du , Shikai Bao , Zhiyang Zhang , Chang Li , Chunmiao Yuan

{"title":"Experimental study on the influence of three typical surfactants on the explosion characteristics of coal dust clouds","authors":"Lingfeng Wang , Zhengdong Liu , Jinglin Zhang , Zhenguo Du , Shikai Bao , Zhiyang Zhang , Chang Li , Chunmiao Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The extensive application of surfactants in wet dust removal technology may alter the combustion and explosion risk characteristics of coal dust. This is of great engineering significance for the safety prevention and control in the process industry. To assess the impact mechanism of surfactant treatment on the safety parameters of dust explosion, this study selected three typical surfactants (SDS, Triton™ X 100, and CTAB) and systematically investigated the evolution rules of the explosion hazards of coal dusts with different degrees of coalification (lignite, bituminous coal, anthracite).Using a 20-L explosion chamber, the explosion parameters (P<sub>max</sub>, (dP/dt)<sub>max</sub>) were measured. The thermodynamic behavior and functional group evolution were analyzed by integrating TG/DTG-DSC and FTIR techniques. The study revealed that the regulation of explosion intensity by surfactants is coal rank dependent. Specifically, SDS treatment significantly enhanced the explosion pressure of lignite (with a 13.0 % increase in P<sub>max</sub>) while inhibiting the explosion reaction of anthracite. Triton™ X-100 generally reduced the explosion risk but exhibited coal-ank sensitivity (the inhibition efficiency of lignite was merely 18.7 % of that of anthracite).Mechanistic studies indicate that surfactants alter the reaction pathway by regulating the key active sites (hydroxyl/oxygen-containing functional groups) of coal-oxygen recombination. Hydroxyl groups play a dominant role in the explosion-enhancing effect of low-rank coal, while the explosion inhibition of high-rank coal is associated with the recombination of oxygen-containing groups. This research uncovers the dual-safety effects of surfactants in the dust-removal process and offers a theoretical foundation for the risk-graded prevention and control of wet dust-suppression systems in the process industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105716"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Explosion induced domino effect assessment in the process industries: A machine learning approach to improve probit models 过程工业中爆炸引起的多米诺效应评估：改进概率模型的机器学习方法

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105714

Min Jiang , Yu Yang , Jiexiang Bian , Mengru Fang , Valerio Cozzani , Genserik Reniers , Chao Chen

{"title":"Explosion induced domino effect assessment in the process industries: A machine learning approach to improve probit models","authors":"Min Jiang , Yu Yang , Jiexiang Bian , Mengru Fang , Valerio Cozzani , Genserik Reniers , Chao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105714","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105714","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Explosion-induced domino accidents in the chemical industry, such as the 2005 Buncefield and 2019 Xiangshui accidents, can lead to catastrophic losses. Recent studies commonly use probit models (simplified linear regression models) to predict the probability of accident escalation caused by equipment failure due to overpressure conditions but necessitate distinct equations for different equipment types. In order to simplify the number of models and improve their accuracy, this study introduced three machine learning models (random forest model, convolutional neural network model, and deep neural network model), addressing complex nonlinear relationships that conventional regression models may not fully capture. By model training, the DNN model has the highest accuracy (99 %), followed by CNN (94 %) and random RF (95 %). The DNN model was selected as the optimal data-driven model for equipment vulnerability assessment due to their feedforward mechanism's capability to dynamically align parameters with evolving data distributions. The approach developed can not only predict the probability of equipment damage by integrating values related to peak overpressure and equipment type but also effectively address the accuracy validation issues associated with traditional regression models. Besides, this approach can be considered open source model and more explosion data may be used in the future to further improve the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105714"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influence of iron oxides on thermal stability of tert-butyl peroxybenzoate 氧化铁对过氧苯甲酸叔丁酯热稳定性的影响

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105708

Wenhe Wang , Shaoyu Hu , Xuekun Jia , Shunchieh Chang , Chi-Min Shu

{"title":"Influence of iron oxides on thermal stability of tert-butyl peroxybenzoate","authors":"Wenhe Wang , Shaoyu Hu , Xuekun Jia , Shunchieh Chang , Chi-Min Shu","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105708","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105708","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tert-butyl peroxybenzoate (TBPB), a common C-type organic peroxide (OP), is widely used in numerous fields of industrial production. The presence of impurities has been identified as a factor affecting the thermal stability of OPs, heightening the interest in OPs and their reactivity. This study scrutinized the thermal decomposition effect of various iron oxides (Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>, FeO, and Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>) on TBPB by simultaneous thermal analyzer (STA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The data from the experiments formed a sound linear fit, and the thermokinetic parameters of TBPB under the action of the samples with iron oxides, were calculated. The apparent activation energy obtained by the Kissinger and Flynn-Wall-Ozawa methods agreed that iron oxides attenuated the thermal stability of TBPB. FTIR was used to analyze changes in the characteristic peaks of the product, and possible reaction paths were calculated by Gaussian software from the molecular structure perspective. The reaction heat and energy barrier values were calculated to evaluate the effect of iron oxides on the decomposition pathways of TBPB. The results provided valuable reference values that can help prevent unintended combustion and explosion. In addition, the findings informed process safety engineers to properly select materials while manufacturing safety and containment equipment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 105708"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Uncertainty management in oil depot risk assessment: Current approaches, challenges, and future directions 油库风险评估中的不确定性管理：当前方法、挑战和未来方向

IF 3.6 3区工程技术

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105711

Shuyi Xie , Xixiang Zhang , Jinheng Luo , Gang Wu , Shaohua Dong

{"title":"Uncertainty management in oil depot risk assessment: Current approaches, challenges, and future directions","authors":"Shuyi Xie , Xixiang Zhang , Jinheng Luo , Gang Wu , Shaohua Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a systematic review and forward-looking analysis of uncertainty management in oil depot risk assessments. Current research underscores that dynamic risk assessment has become the dominant method for evaluating oil depot risks, enabling effective identification of risk fluctuations and providing dynamic risk warnings and decision support. Given the critical role of oil depots in national energy infrastructure, ensuring their reliability and safety is essential for safeguarding energy security. However, significant challenges persist in addressing cognitive and aleatory uncertainties. Existing approaches often rely on fuzzy logic and expert elicitation to manage cognitive uncertainty, yet the subjectivity and variability among experts can introduce uncertainties in weight assignments, potentially undermining decision accuracy. Future studies should investigate fuzzy cognitive maps and data-driven methods to mitigate these effects. For aleatory uncertainty, while conventional probability statistics are widely used, further advancements are required to enhance computational efficiency and accuracy. Promising solutions include grey system theory, Bayesian networks, and multi-source information fusion techniques, which offer improved approaches for handling aleatory uncertainty. Developing robust risk assessment frameworks is crucial for protecting energy infrastructure, ensuring the continuity of energy supply, and preventing catastrophic failures. Future research should focus on comprehensive uncertainty management frameworks, improved data quality, and the integration of Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence technologies to enhance the scientific rigor and reliability of oil depot risk assessments. These advancements will not only bolster operational safety but also ensure the long-term stability of energy security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 105711"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0