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Scaling of Extinction Time With Habitat Size in Experimental Populations 实验种群灭绝时间与栖息地大小的比例关系
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70178
John M. Drake, Éric Marty, Anurag Sau
{"title":"Scaling of Extinction Time With Habitat Size in Experimental Populations","authors":"John M. Drake,&nbsp;Éric Marty,&nbsp;Anurag Sau","doi":"10.1111/ele.70178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70178","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Theoretical models suggest that the mean time to extinction scales with habitat size through either exponential or power law relationships, depending on demographic and environmental stochasticity. Despite extensive theoretical work, empirical validation of these scaling relationships is limited. Here, we report a microcosm study of <i>Daphnia magna</i> populations in experimental chambers consisting of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, or 32 patches, with a total of 35 populations monitored daily until extinction. We tested the scaling of extinction time with patch count using nonlinear regression models for both exponential and power law functions, comparing model fit with mean squared error. Overall, the data supported the power law over an exponential relationship (bootstrapped <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>p</mi>\u0000 <mo>&lt;</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.00001</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ p&lt;0.00001 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) although the difference between the models is not evident when comparing some treatment levels. Our experiment provides the first empirical test of long-standing theoretical predictions and lays a foundation for future studies to expand the understanding of extinction dynamics in ecological systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70178","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144688075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Evenness Even Exist? 均匀是否存在?
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70181
John Alroy
{"title":"Does Evenness Even Exist?","authors":"John Alroy","doi":"10.1111/ele.70181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70181","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The idea that diversity is a combination of species richness and the so-called “evenness” of count distributions is a bedrock concept in ecology. Researchers often compute stand-alone evenness indices. They also examine Hill numbers related to Shannon's <i>H</i> and Simpson's <i>D</i> because these metrics balance richness and “evenness” to various degrees. But evenness is an operationally problematic abstraction, not a thing out in the world. Evenness indices and Hill numbers in empirical data are overly sensitive to the abundance of dominant species, poorly replicable within communities, highly variable among similar communities, and a weak indicator of latitudinal biodiversity trends. They are inconsistently related to the parameters of key models that might underlie count distributions, and they vary highly in simulation even when these model parameters do not vary. Ecologists would benefit by instead determining which real distributions fit which theoretical models and using estimated parameters to understand community structure and assembly.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70181","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Plant Elemental Homeostasis Enhances Species Performance and Community Functioning in Wetlands: Looking Beyond Nitrogen and Phosphorus 植物元素平衡提高湿地物种性能和群落功能:超越氮和磷的视角
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70152
Zhenjun Zuo, Zhong Wang, Haocun Zhao, Peidong Zhao, Rui Qu, Dan Yu
{"title":"Plant Elemental Homeostasis Enhances Species Performance and Community Functioning in Wetlands: Looking Beyond Nitrogen and Phosphorus","authors":"Zhenjun Zuo,&nbsp;Zhong Wang,&nbsp;Haocun Zhao,&nbsp;Peidong Zhao,&nbsp;Rui Qu,&nbsp;Dan Yu","doi":"10.1111/ele.70152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70152","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding how species optimise and stabilise their elementome, namely stoichiometric homeostasis (<i>H</i>), is crucial for species adaptation in changing environments. Species can be stoichiometrically homeostatic to different degrees, and elemental homeostasis is related to species' nutrient economic strategies. Recent studies on N and P homeostasis have provided a framework linking plant fitness to ecosystem functioning. However, the mechanisms by which homeostasis of bioelements beyond N and P affects species performance and community functioning remain poorly understood, despite the well-established physiological functions of these bioelements. Based on 16 bioelements of 84 plant species from 232 wetlands, we found that bioelements with higher concentrations were more homeostatic in plants. Besides P, we further proposed that higher <i>H</i><sub>K</sub>, <i>H</i><sub>Ca</sub> and <i>H</i><sub>Na</sub> enhanced species biomass, dominance, stability and community biomass. Climate, nutrient supply, community elemental concentration and homeostasis coregulated community biomass of submerged plants. These findings expand the stoichiometric framework for predicting the adaptative mechanisms of plants and their communities to environmental changes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Warmer Is Deadlier: A Meta-Analysis Reveals Increasing Temperatures Accentuate Disease Effects on Fisheries Hosts 温暖更致命:一项荟萃分析显示,温度升高会加剧对渔业宿主的疾病影响
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70156
Megan M. Tomamichel, Kaitlyn I. Lowe, Kaylee M. H. Arnold, Marc. E. Frischer, Brian J. Irwin, Craig W. Osenberg, Richard J. Hall, James E. Byers
{"title":"Warmer Is Deadlier: A Meta-Analysis Reveals Increasing Temperatures Accentuate Disease Effects on Fisheries Hosts","authors":"Megan M. Tomamichel,&nbsp;Kaitlyn I. Lowe,&nbsp;Kaylee M. H. Arnold,&nbsp;Marc. E. Frischer,&nbsp;Brian J. Irwin,&nbsp;Craig W. Osenberg,&nbsp;Richard J. Hall,&nbsp;James E. Byers","doi":"10.1111/ele.70156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70156","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapid warming could drastically alter host–parasite relationships, which is especially important for fisheries crucial to human nutrition and economic livelihoods, yet we lack a synthetic understanding of how warming influences parasite-induced mortality in these systems. We conducted a meta-analysis using 266 effect sizes from 52 empirical papers on harvested aquatic species and determined the relationship between parasite-induced host mortality and temperature and how this relationship was altered by host, parasite, and study design traits. Overall, higher temperatures increased parasite-induced host mortality; however, the magnitude of this relationship varied. Hosts from the order Salmoniformes experienced a greater increase in parasite-induced mortality with temperature than the average response to temperature across fish orders. Opportunistic parasites were associated with a greater increase in infected host mortality with temperature than the average across parasite strategies, while bacterial parasites were associated with lower infected host mortality as temperature increased than the average across parasite types. Thus, parasites will generally increase host mortality as the environment warms; however, this effect will vary among systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70156","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Responses of Subsoil Organic Carbon to Climate Warming and Cooling Is Determined by Microbial Community Rather Than Its Molecular Composition 土壤下有机碳对气候变暖和变冷的响应是由微生物群落而不是其分子组成决定的
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70162
Yuzhang Li, Yao Wei, Lile He, Bo Fan, Kunhe Liu, Mingli Ding, Yigang Hu, Xin Jing, Biao Zhu, Shiping Wang, Jin-Sheng He, Xinquan Zhao, Zhenhua Zhang
{"title":"Responses of Subsoil Organic Carbon to Climate Warming and Cooling Is Determined by Microbial Community Rather Than Its Molecular Composition","authors":"Yuzhang Li,&nbsp;Yao Wei,&nbsp;Lile He,&nbsp;Bo Fan,&nbsp;Kunhe Liu,&nbsp;Mingli Ding,&nbsp;Yigang Hu,&nbsp;Xin Jing,&nbsp;Biao Zhu,&nbsp;Shiping Wang,&nbsp;Jin-Sheng He,&nbsp;Xinquan Zhao,&nbsp;Zhenhua Zhang","doi":"10.1111/ele.70162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70162","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Little is currently known about how long-term climate changes modulate the relationship between soil organic carbon (SOC) molecular composition, microbial community and SOC storage and the mechanisms involved. Here, we show substantial changes in subsoil SOC in the Qinghai-Tibetan alpine grasslands over 16 years of soil warming and cooling. Warming reduced SOC content by 8.5%, whereas cooling increased it by 7.0%. Neither warming nor cooling affected plant- and microbial-derived molecular components. However, warming elevated the fungal-to-bacterial biomass ratio (F/B) and the gram-positive to gram-negative bacterial biomass ratio (G+/G-) by 15.0% and 8.6%, respectively, whereas cooling reduced them by 4.5% and 9.6%. Warming reduced SOC storage by directly increasing F/B and G+/G- and indirectly decreasing the soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, whereas cooling enhanced SOC storage primarily by decreasing F/B. Conventional warming experiments, which consider only climate warming and neglect cooling, may underestimate the negative impacts of warming on subsoil SOC pools in alpine grasslands.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144624591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Areas of High Biodiversity Value Evidenced by the Spatial Scaling of Phylogenetic Uniqueness 系统发育独特性的空间尺度证明了生物多样性高价值地区
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70179
Andrés Baselga, Ramiro Martín-Devasa, Carola Gómez-Rodríguez
{"title":"Areas of High Biodiversity Value Evidenced by the Spatial Scaling of Phylogenetic Uniqueness","authors":"Andrés Baselga,&nbsp;Ramiro Martín-Devasa,&nbsp;Carola Gómez-Rodríguez","doi":"10.1111/ele.70179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70179","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Distinct biological communities have high conservation value because they harbour species that cannot be preserved elsewhere. However, community uniqueness is scale-dependent: irreplaceability depends on whether community dissimilarity emerges at small or large spatial scales. To assess conservation value, here we integrate phylogenetic endemism with the spatial scaling of phylogenetic uniqueness in terrestrial vertebrates. We show that phylogenetic endemism is the most efficient single criterion to maximise global phylogenetic diversity within the smallest land area. Moreover, the spatial scaling of phylogenetic uniqueness allows distinguishing globally distinct but regionally less unique sites ‘(evolutionary hills)’, from highly irreplaceable sites even at small scales ‘(evolutionary islands)’, which support lower local diversity but host species that are both evolutionarily unique and threatened. This approach provides a non-heuristic and stable baseline to identify high-value biodiversity areas and offers a powerful tool for prioritising conservation efforts to safeguard evolutionary heritage effectively.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70179","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144614963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Divergence Across Niche Dimensions Reveals Species' Ecological Roles 不同生态位维度的差异揭示了物种的生态角色
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70173
Marcelo Magioli, Vinicius Alberici, Elildo A. R. Carvalho Jr, Nina Attias, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros Ferraz, Marcelo Zacharias Moreira, Arnaud L. J. Desbiez, Adriano Garcia Chiarello
{"title":"Divergence Across Niche Dimensions Reveals Species' Ecological Roles","authors":"Marcelo Magioli,&nbsp;Vinicius Alberici,&nbsp;Elildo A. R. Carvalho Jr,&nbsp;Nina Attias,&nbsp;Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros Ferraz,&nbsp;Marcelo Zacharias Moreira,&nbsp;Arnaud L. J. Desbiez,&nbsp;Adriano Garcia Chiarello","doi":"10.1111/ele.70173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70173","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Natural history data are essential for understanding species' ecological roles, supporting applied research and guiding conservation efforts. However, significant gaps in ecological knowledge limit our understanding, requiring complementary approaches to bridge them. Using an integrative analytical framework, we explored multiple niche dimensions of poorly known co-occurring xenarthran insectivores, uncovering shared and unique roles within this guild. Our findings revealed divergences among most species' pairs across three niche dimensions while emphasising distinct ecological roles within a three-tier trophic structure. Habitat use was strongly influenced by resource availability, with species exploiting both natural and anthropogenic habitats, reflecting a double-edged trade-off. Spatial and trophic patterns mirrored each other, demonstrating the interconnectedness of diet and habitat use, with activity patterns further aligning with these trends. These findings challenge assumptions of ecological redundancy and highlight the complexity of guild-level interactions, emphasising critical knowledge gaps in biodiversity and its essential contributions to global ecosystem processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70173","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global Change Asymmetrically Rewires Ecosystems 全球变化不对称地重塑生态系统
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70174
Charlotte A. Ward, Tyler D. Tunney, Ian Donohue, Carling Bieg, Kayla R. S. Hale, Bailey C. McMeans, John C. Moore, Kevin S. McCann
{"title":"Global Change Asymmetrically Rewires Ecosystems","authors":"Charlotte A. Ward,&nbsp;Tyler D. Tunney,&nbsp;Ian Donohue,&nbsp;Carling Bieg,&nbsp;Kayla R. S. Hale,&nbsp;Bailey C. McMeans,&nbsp;John C. Moore,&nbsp;Kevin S. McCann","doi":"10.1111/ele.70174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70174","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global change is complex and multidimensional, making it challenging to understand how human activities affect ecosystem processes. A critical gap in this understanding is how drivers of global change broadly affect food webs. While an industry of studies documents shifts in food webs in response to anthropogenic pressures, a general synthesis is lacking. To address this, we review studies across diverse ecosystems that use stable isotope analysis, energetic food web modelling and gut content analysis to reveal the prevalence of asymmetric rewiring—a phenomenon whereby anthropogenic pressures differentially impact habitats across space, altering some energy pathways within food webs relative to others. We then highlight several examples from the literature to illustrate how this process unfolds. To explore its broader consequences, we use a simple food web model to demonstrate how asymmetric rewiring alters resilience and key ecosystem functions, such as primary and secondary production. Our synthesis uncovers a remarkably general response in food web structure to global change that needs to be better understood to protect nature and the services that human societies rely on in a rapidly changing world.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70174","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Harnessing Nutritional Niches to Explore Fungus-Animal Symbioses 利用营养生态位探索真菌与动物的共生关系
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70176
Jonathan Zvi Shik, Audrey Dussutour, Henrik Hjarvard De Fine Licht
{"title":"Harnessing Nutritional Niches to Explore Fungus-Animal Symbioses","authors":"Jonathan Zvi Shik,&nbsp;Audrey Dussutour,&nbsp;Henrik Hjarvard De Fine Licht","doi":"10.1111/ele.70176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70176","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fungus-animal symbioses have evolved countless times across the tree of life. While the stability of these mutualistic or parasitic interkingdom interactions often depends on optimised nutrient exchange, we lack a framework to explore whether animal-derived nutrients are optimal for fungal symbionts. This conceptual gap has constrained studies about the ecological success and evolutionary stability of fungus-animal symbioses. We use Nutritional Geometry (NG) to harness nutritional niche theory and identify the crucial nutritional niche dimensions of fungi that mediate symbiotic stability. We hypothesise that these fungal nutritional niche dimensions are governed by symbiotic role (mutualist vs. pathogen), degree of animal host control over nutritional competition (monoculture vs. polyculture), and breadth of host associations (specialist vs. generalist). We explore the promise of integrating NG with advanced imaging and -omics approaches to test coevolutionary hypotheses at precise microscales where fungus and animal cells trade nutrients. We conclude that niche-based theory can advance studies of coevolutionary dynamics from arms races to the emergence of economically important pathogens.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70176","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests 风暴是热带森林变化的重要驱动力
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70157
Evan M. Gora, Ian R. McGregor, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jeffrey C. Burchfield, K. C. Cushman, Vanessa E. Rubio, Gisele Biem Mori, Martin J. P. Sullivan, Matthew W. Chmielewski, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert
{"title":"Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests","authors":"Evan M. Gora,&nbsp;Ian R. McGregor,&nbsp;Helene C. Muller-Landau,&nbsp;Jeffrey C. Burchfield,&nbsp;K. C. Cushman,&nbsp;Vanessa E. Rubio,&nbsp;Gisele Biem Mori,&nbsp;Martin J. P. Sullivan,&nbsp;Matthew W. Chmielewski,&nbsp;Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert","doi":"10.1111/ele.70157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70157","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70157","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144582121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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