Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-01-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105942
Aleksey Kolokolov , Roberto Renò , Patrick Zoi
{"title":"BUMVU estimators","authors":"Aleksey Kolokolov , Roberto Renò , Patrick Zoi","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for an (Unbiased) Block estimator to have Uniformly Minimum Variance. Our theory parallels the theory of UMVU estimation, the main novel insight being the focus on the covariance among blocks. We use this theory to derive lower variance bounds for block estimators of functionals of high-frequency volatility when the block size is fixed. We further show the relevance of the new theory for the classical problem of estimation of homoskedastic nonparametric regressions with varying mean. Finally, we introduce a new test for the presence of drift in financial data which exploits the precision of BUMVU estimators. The test shows abundant presence of drift in financial data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105942"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"FX futures invariance","authors":"Torben G. Andersen , Oleg Bondarenko , Eleni Gousgounis , Esen Onur","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106165","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106165","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop and empirically examine a novel intraday invariance relation among trading activity variables across a set of currencies in the foreign exchange (FX) futures market exploiting tick level data. Our Trading Invariance (TI) hypothesis reflects an equilibrium involving trade-offs between the risk per trade versus market liquidity as captured by the bid-ask spread and market depth. We observe exogenous breaks in the trading costs for many of the currencies, as the exchange lowered the tick size for individual contracts at different points in time. Using these incidents as quasi-natural experiments, we confirm that the remaining components of the TI hypothesis adjust to maintain the equilibrium by shifts in the trading intensity and market depth. In contrast, alternative invariance relations fail dramatically when confronted with this type of exogenous shock. We further confirm that the values of key coefficients in the TI relation are similar across assets and in good correspondence with the theoretically predicted values. Our results point towards a fundamental equilibrium mechanism that should be accommodated within existing market microstructure paradigms. Moreover, they have direct implications for market design and surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 106165"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2024-07-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105813
Sébastien Laurent , Roberto Renò , Shuping Shi
{"title":"Realized drift","authors":"Sébastien Laurent , Roberto Renò , Shuping Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drift and volatility are two mainsprings of asset price dynamics. While volatilities have been studied extensively in the literature, drifts are commonly believed to be impossible to estimate and largely ignored in the literature. This paper shows how to detect drift using <em>realized autocovariance</em> implemented on high-frequency data. We use a theoretical treatment in which the classical model for the efficient price, an Itō semimartingale possibly contaminated by microstructure noise, is enriched with drift and volatility explosions. Our theory advocates a novel decomposition for realized variance into a drift and a volatility component, which leads to significant improvements in volatility forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105813"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141690053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2023-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.12.005
Yu-Ning Li , Jia Chen , Oliver Linton
{"title":"Estimation of common factors for microstructure noise and efficient price in a high-frequency dual factor model","authors":"Yu-Ning Li , Jia Chen , Oliver Linton","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.12.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.12.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop the Double Principal Component Analysis<span> (DPCA) based on a dual factor structure for high-frequency intraday returns contaminated with microstructure noise. The dual factor structure allows a factor structure for microstructure noise in addition to the factor structure for efficient log-prices. We construct estimators of factors for both efficient log-prices and microstructure noise as well as their common components, and provide uniform consistency of these estimators when the number of assets and the sampling frequency go to infinity. In a Monte Carlo exercise, we compare our DPCA method to a PCA-VECM method. Finally, an empirical analysis of intraday returns of S&P 500 Index constituents provides evidence of co-movement of the microstructure noise that distinguishes from latent systematic risk factors.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105382"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43879682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106203
Zhonghao Fu , Shang Gao , Liangjun Su , Xia Wang
{"title":"High-dimensional conditional factor model","authors":"Zhonghao Fu , Shang Gao , Liangjun Su , Xia Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies estimation and variable selection in conditional factor models with high-dimensional instruments, where the coefficient matrix exhibits a low-rank and row-sparse structure. We propose a multi-stage estimation procedure that combines nuclear norm regularization and adaptive group LASSO regression to consistently estimate latent factors and row-sparse loading coefficients, while selecting relevant instrumental characteristics. We establish theoretical results for estimation consistency, selection consistency, and post-LASSO inference for estimators of factors and loading coefficients at multiple stages. Furthermore, we implement a singular value thresholding procedure to determine the number of factors. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimators in consistently estimating factor loadings, selecting the appropriate number of factors, and conducting inference. Finally, we apply the proposed method to an empirical study on asset return prediction, showcasing its practical utility in real-world applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 106203"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146171156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106162
Hongfei Wang , Ping Zhao , Long Feng , Zhaojun Wang
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Robust mutual fund selection with false discovery rate control” [Journal of Econometrics 252 (2025) 106121]","authors":"Hongfei Wang , Ping Zhao , Long Feng , Zhaojun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106162","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 106162"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Statistical inference for systemic risk-driven portfolio selection","authors":"Tsz Chai Fung , Yinhuan Li , Liang Peng , Linyi Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106127","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106127","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Portfolio selection in modern finance involves constructing optimal asset allocation strategies that balance risk and return. However, traditional portfolio selection faces new challenges due to systemic events, as exemplified by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, we introduce a nonparametric systemic risk-driven portfolio selection approach that models market and portfolio losses using kernel density estimation. In the event of market underperformance, we aim to minimize the conditional expected shortfall (CoES) of portfolio losses while targeting a specific return. We observe that directly estimating CoES using nonparametric kernel methods does not produce a convex objective function with respect to portfolio weights. To address this, we propose an augmentation of the objective function to ensure convexity, guaranteeing a unique solution for optimal portfolio weights regardless of the sample size. Through simulations, we demonstrate our proposed approach’s consistency and out-of-sample performance compared to benchmark portfolio criteria and CoES-based parametric models. Applying this method to a real dataset showcases its superior risk–return performance relative to existing approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 106127"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145577892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106184
Yao Luo , Peijun Sang
{"title":"Efficient estimation of structural models via sieves","authors":"Yao Luo , Peijun Sang","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106184","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a class of sieve-based efficient estimators for structural models (SEES), which approximate the solution using a linear combination of basis functions and impose equilibrium conditions as a penalty to determine the best-fitting coefficients. Our estimators circumvent repeated solution of the structural model, apply to a broad class of models, and are consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient. Moreover, they solve <em>unconstrained</em> optimization problems with fewer unknowns and offer convenient standard error calculations. As an illustration, we apply our method to an entry game between Walmart and Kmart.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 106184"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106149
Shouxia Wang , Hua Liu , Jinhong You , Tao Huang
{"title":"Functional semiparametric modeling for nonstationary and periodic time series data","authors":"Shouxia Wang , Hua Liu , Jinhong You , Tao Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106149","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inspired by a real data example illustrating the periodicity in hog price data, this study aims to analyze time series that exhibit an unknown period alongside complex covariate effects. To address these complexities and effectively handle the data structures, we incorporate the partial functional varying-coefficient single-index model into the classical time series decomposition model. We propose a two-stage estimation procedure designed to accurately estimate the unknown periodic component and the associated covariate functions. In the first stage, the unknown period is estimated using a penalized least squares approach, where the covariate functions are approximated via B-splines rather than being ignored. In the second stage, given the estimated period, we employ B-splines to estimate key components, including the amplitude of the periodic component, the varying-coefficient functions, the single-index link function, and the functional slope function. Asymptotic results for the proposed estimators are derived, encompassing the consistency of the period estimator as well as the asymptotic properties of the estimated periodic sequence and covariate functions. Furthermore, we conduct simulations to validate the superior performance of the proposed method and demonstrate its practical applicability through the aforementioned empirical example.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 106149"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145577890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal of EconometricsPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106123
Sylvain Barde
{"title":"Large-scale model comparison with fast model confidence sets","authors":"Sylvain Barde","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper proposes a new algorithm for finding the confidence set of a collection of forecasts or prediction models. Existing numerical implementations use an elimination approach, where one starts with the full collection of models and successively eliminates the worst performing until the null of equal predictive ability is no longer rejected at a given confidence level. The intuition behind the proposed implementation lies in reversing the process, i.e. starting with a collection of two models and updating both the model rankings and p-values as models are successively added to the collection. The first benefit of this approach is a reduction of one polynomial order in both the time complexity and memory cost of finding the confidence set of a collection of <span><math><mi>M</mi></math></span> models using the <span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span> rule, falling respectively from <span><math><mrow><mi>O</mi><mfenced><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mfenced></mrow></math></span> to <span><math><mrow><mi>O</mi><mfenced><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mfenced></mrow></math></span> and from <span><math><mrow><mi>O</mi><mfenced><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></mfenced></mrow></math></span> to <span><math><mrow><mi>O</mi><mfenced><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow></mfenced></mrow></math></span>. The second key benefit is that it allows for further models to be added at a later point in time, thus enabling collaborative efforts using the model confidence set procedure. The paper proves that this implementation is equivalent to the elimination approach, demonstrates the improved performance on a multivariate GARCH collection consisting of 4800 models, and discusses possible use-cases where this improved performance could prove useful.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 106123"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}