Journal of Biogeography最新文献

{"title":"Combining Historical and Ecological Methods Provides New Insights for the Recognition of Biogeographical Areas and Their Relationships: The Case of the Gulf of Mexico","authors":"José María Ahuatzin-Hernández, Juan J. Morrone, Víctor M. Vidal-Martínez, Alejandro J. Souza","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70190","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Biogeographical regionalisation is an evolutionary system of nested areas representing the geographic organisation of life on the planet, which is fundamental for understanding basic and applied aspects related to the ecology, evolution and conservation of biotas and their habitats. The conceptual and practical development of biogeographical regionalisation has been diverse, deriving from two main subdisciplines: historical or evolutionary biogeography and ecological biogeography. This division has prevented the consolidation of an integrative discipline, hampering its advancement. In this work, we implement a new methodology for conducting biogeographical regionalisation by integrating two traditional techniques coming from historical and ecological biogeographical studies: parsimony analysis of endemicity and hierarchical clustering analysis into a coherent methodological framework (PAE-HCA).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Gulf of Mexico, Western Atlantic.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Multi-taxa.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The framework consists of three main steps: (1) identifying areas of distributional congruence, (2) establishing a spatial structure of the areas recognised and (3) recognising area relationships. The method includes the establishment of biogeographic hypotheses that can be tested statistically regarding the membership of the units that conform to each area and their affinity, providing robustness and biogeographic assertion. This methodological framework was tested with a comprehensive occurrence database from the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent waters.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A total of 126 areas of distributional congruence were recovered, which were grouped into three main biogeographic areas with strong statistical support. These areas are congruent with geological and oceanographic features of the region, supporting the hypothesis that the Gulf can be divided into two main components, one characterised by neritic waters and the other characterised by oceanic waters.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study constitutes the first attempt to integrate historical and ecological techniques into a robust methodological framework. Future perspectives include implementing this approach in different ","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modern Pollen–Environment Calibrations in Thailand–Malaysia: Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Precipitation as Quantitative Constraints for Vegetation Reconstruction","authors":"Fei Gong, Lu Dai, Rachadaporn Benchawattananon, Swee Yeok Foong, Zhongjing Cheng, Chengyu Weng","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70191","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Quantitative tools for reconstructing past hydroclimate in Southeast Asia remain limited. We therefore develop modern calibrations linking non-arboreal pollen (NAP; excluding forest-understory herbs and fern spores) to Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and mean annual precipitation and evaluate their out-of-sample performance when applied to marine pollen records from the southern South China Sea (SCS).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Central and eastern Thailand; western Peninsular Malaysia; southern SCS (exposed Sunda Shelf during glacial lowstands).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Modern pollen calibration: application to the last glacial maximum (LGM).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>NAP from tropical ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We compiled 88 topsoil pollen samples (33 new from Thailand, plus 55 published from Malaysia). Interpolated mean annual precipitation (WorldClim v2.1 climatology) and NDVI were extracted for each site. Linear regressions quantified NAP–NDVI relationships within Thailand and across Thailand–Malaysia. A Huber regression model predicting precipitation from pollen predictors (NAP and high-mountain pollen) was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Segmented (piecewise) regressions identified pollen-space thresholds separating vegetation states. These calibrations and associated thresholds were applied to published marine pollen records from the southern SCS.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results and Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>NAP covaries strongly and linearly with the NDVI across Thailand–Malaysia. A Huber regression linking NAP to mean annual precipitation shows robust out-of-sample predictive skill under 5-fold cross-validation (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.77; RMSE = 365 mm year<sup>−1</sup>). Segmented regression further identifies a practical pollen-space threshold of ~51% NAP that discriminates open landscapes (wooded grasslands) from closed forest in eastern Thailand. Applied to ten published marine pollen records from the southern SCS (shelf and slope; ~25–18 cal ka BP, LGM), our NDVI- and precipitation-based reconstructions, together with the threshold framework, suggest that closed forest prevailed in the western and eastern sectors, whereas slightly more open forest characterised the southern sector during the LGM period. Overall, inferred humidity conditions appear broadly comparable to those of modern surrounding c","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modern Pollen–Environment Calibrations in Thailand–Malaysia: Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Precipitation as Quantitative Constraints for Vegetation Reconstruction","authors":"Fei Gong, Lu Dai, Rachadaporn Benchawattananon, Swee Yeok Foong, Zhongjing Cheng, Chengyu Weng","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70191","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Quantitative tools for reconstructing past hydroclimate in Southeast Asia remain limited. We therefore develop modern calibrations linking non-arboreal pollen (NAP; excluding forest-understory herbs and fern spores) to Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and mean annual precipitation and evaluate their out-of-sample performance when applied to marine pollen records from the southern South China Sea (SCS).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Central and eastern Thailand; western Peninsular Malaysia; southern SCS (exposed Sunda Shelf during glacial lowstands).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Modern pollen calibration: application to the last glacial maximum (LGM).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>NAP from tropical ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We compiled 88 topsoil pollen samples (33 new from Thailand, plus 55 published from Malaysia). Interpolated mean annual precipitation (WorldClim v2.1 climatology) and NDVI were extracted for each site. Linear regressions quantified NAP–NDVI relationships within Thailand and across Thailand–Malaysia. A Huber regression model predicting precipitation from pollen predictors (NAP and high-mountain pollen) was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Segmented (piecewise) regressions identified pollen-space thresholds separating vegetation states. These calibrations and associated thresholds were applied to published marine pollen records from the southern SCS.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results and Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>NAP covaries strongly and linearly with the NDVI across Thailand–Malaysia. A Huber regression linking NAP to mean annual precipitation shows robust out-of-sample predictive skill under 5-fold cross-validation (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.77; RMSE = 365 mm year<sup>−1</sup>). Segmented regression further identifies a practical pollen-space threshold of ~51% NAP that discriminates open landscapes (wooded grasslands) from closed forest in eastern Thailand. Applied to ten published marine pollen records from the southern SCS (shelf and slope; ~25–18 cal ka BP, LGM), our NDVI- and precipitation-based reconstructions, together with the threshold framework, suggest that closed forest prevailed in the western and eastern sectors, whereas slightly more open forest characterised the southern sector during the LGM period. Overall, inferred humidity conditions appear broadly comparable to those of modern surrounding c","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining Historical and Ecological Methods Provides New Insights for the Recognition of Biogeographical Areas and Their Relationships: The Case of the Gulf of Mexico","authors":"José María Ahuatzin-Hernández, Juan J. Morrone, Víctor M. Vidal-Martínez, Alejandro J. Souza","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70190","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Biogeographical regionalisation is an evolutionary system of nested areas representing the geographic organisation of life on the planet, which is fundamental for understanding basic and applied aspects related to the ecology, evolution and conservation of biotas and their habitats. The conceptual and practical development of biogeographical regionalisation has been diverse, deriving from two main subdisciplines: historical or evolutionary biogeography and ecological biogeography. This division has prevented the consolidation of an integrative discipline, hampering its advancement. In this work, we implement a new methodology for conducting biogeographical regionalisation by integrating two traditional techniques coming from historical and ecological biogeographical studies: parsimony analysis of endemicity and hierarchical clustering analysis into a coherent methodological framework (PAE-HCA).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Gulf of Mexico, Western Atlantic.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Multi-taxa.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The framework consists of three main steps: (1) identifying areas of distributional congruence, (2) establishing a spatial structure of the areas recognised and (3) recognising area relationships. The method includes the establishment of biogeographic hypotheses that can be tested statistically regarding the membership of the units that conform to each area and their affinity, providing robustness and biogeographic assertion. This methodological framework was tested with a comprehensive occurrence database from the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent waters.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A total of 126 areas of distributional congruence were recovered, which were grouped into three main biogeographic areas with strong statistical support. These areas are congruent with geological and oceanographic features of the region, supporting the hypothesis that the Gulf can be divided into two main components, one characterised by neritic waters and the other characterised by oceanic waters.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study constitutes the first attempt to integrate historical and ecological techniques into a robust methodological framework. Future perspectives include implementing this approach in different ","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unravelling the Roles of Recent Speciation and Trait Evolution in Shaping the Longitudinal Gradient of Tropical Reef Fish Diversity","authors":"Rémy Le Goff, Théo Gaboriau, Camille Albouy, Loïc Pellissier, Fabien Leprieur","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70184","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the tropical marine realm, the increasing concentration of reef fish species toward the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) has been extensively studied. The literature provides numerous biogeographical scenarios explaining this pronounced longitudinal diversity gradient. However, most proposed scenarios did not consider the interplay between recent speciation and trait evolution, nor the influence of diversity-dependent processes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global and regional.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Tropical reef fishes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Based on a global data set on tropical reef fish distributions, combined with species traits (body size, trophic level and maximum depth range) and a comprehensive Actinopterygii phylogeny, we derived assemblage-level speciation rates across the world's tropical marine ecoregions, as well as assemblage-level trait evolution rates. We then apply a causal modelling approach that simultaneously accounts for the potential influence of both current and past environmental conditions on rates of recent speciation and trait evolution, and ultimately, on species richness distribution.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our results reveal gradients in speciation rates and trait evolution rates that do not match the spatial distribution of species richness. Compared to other regions, the species-rich IAA did not exhibit higher rates of either recent speciation or trait evolution. In contrast, the Caribbean region exhibited the greatest rates of recent speciation, but this pattern was uniquely driven by the recent radiation of hamlets (<i>Hypoplectrus</i> spp.). Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic reefs were also shown to harbour species with, on average, faster recent evolution in body size and maximum depth. Finally, regardless of the biogeographic realm considered (Indo-Pacific, Atlantic or Tropical Eastern Pacific), species richness was found to strongly constrain trait evolutionary rates related to trophic level.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Overall, our findings suggest that the longitudinal gradient in tropical reef fish diversity is unrelated to either recent speciation or recent trait evolution, and that the IAA no longer functions as a centre of origination for tropical reef f","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unravelling the Roles of Recent Speciation and Trait Evolution in Shaping the Longitudinal Gradient of Tropical Reef Fish Diversity","authors":"Rémy Le Goff, Théo Gaboriau, Camille Albouy, Loïc Pellissier, Fabien Leprieur","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70184","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the tropical marine realm, the increasing concentration of reef fish species toward the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) has been extensively studied. The literature provides numerous biogeographical scenarios explaining this pronounced longitudinal diversity gradient. However, most proposed scenarios did not consider the interplay between recent speciation and trait evolution, nor the influence of diversity-dependent processes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global and regional.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Tropical reef fishes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Based on a global data set on tropical reef fish distributions, combined with species traits (body size, trophic level and maximum depth range) and a comprehensive Actinopterygii phylogeny, we derived assemblage-level speciation rates across the world's tropical marine ecoregions, as well as assemblage-level trait evolution rates. We then apply a causal modelling approach that simultaneously accounts for the potential influence of both current and past environmental conditions on rates of recent speciation and trait evolution, and ultimately, on species richness distribution.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our results reveal gradients in speciation rates and trait evolution rates that do not match the spatial distribution of species richness. Compared to other regions, the species-rich IAA did not exhibit higher rates of either recent speciation or trait evolution. In contrast, the Caribbean region exhibited the greatest rates of recent speciation, but this pattern was uniquely driven by the recent radiation of hamlets (<i>Hypoplectrus</i> spp.). Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic reefs were also shown to harbour species with, on average, faster recent evolution in body size and maximum depth. Finally, regardless of the biogeographic realm considered (Indo-Pacific, Atlantic or Tropical Eastern Pacific), species richness was found to strongly constrain trait evolutionary rates related to trophic level.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Overall, our findings suggest that the longitudinal gradient in tropical reef fish diversity is unrelated to either recent speciation or recent trait evolution, and that the IAA no longer functions as a centre of origination for tropical reef f","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing Uncertainty From Past Range Shifts in Species Distribution Modelling","authors":"Ward Fonteyn,&nbsp;Josep M. Serra-Diaz,&nbsp;Bart Muys,&nbsp;Koenraad Van Meerbeek","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70195","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In a rapidly changing climate, the assumption of a species-environment equilibrium is increasingly strained. Yet, this equilibrium remains a central assumption of species distribution modelling. Species distributions in disequilibrium with their environment may take different forms depending on past species distribution changes, but for most species, these past changes are unknown. Revealing this uncertainty is essential when constructing and interpreting species distribution models.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Europe.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Virtual species and bird species.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We modelled distributions of virtual species exhibiting different past distribution changes based on simulated presences-absences records using six models that varied in how climate data were assigned to species records. The first set of models used a fixed climate period ending in either 1979, 2000, or 2020. An additional model matched the climate data with the year of observation for each species record. We further applied the fixed period 1979 model and the matched-climate model to six bird species to explore real-world implications.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>For the virtual species, the 1979 model best estimated those niche edges corresponding to range edges not tracking climate change, while the matched-climate model best estimated the edges that were tracking climate change. The union or intersection of both models encompasses or is encompassed by the niche of a species respectively, even when both models are applied to the bird species with an unknown niche.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A complementary approach using both the fixed-period climate model and the matched-climate model reveals the uncertainty in SDM predictions that arises from unknown past species distribution change. Engaging explicitly with this uncertainty can aid the interpretation of SDMs and the implied species niche. Our analysis also revealed that current common practice might lead to inaccurate niche estimates due to the indiscriminate use of standard historical climate periods.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biogeographic Boundaries and Angiosperm Phylogenetic Endemism: Highlighting the Evolutionary Complexity of the South American Transition Zone","authors":"Viridiana Lizardo,&nbsp;Adriana Ruggiero","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70183","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Biogeographic transition zones represent areas of overlap, replacement or partial segregation between distinct biotas, yet their evolutionary role in biotic assembly remains poorly understood. We analysed spatial patterns of phylogenetic endemism in the South American Transition Zone and their associations with geomorphology, geodiversity and climate to test whether it reflects the overlap of temporally disjunct lineages, a cradle of diversification, or a museum of persistence.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>South American Transition Zone (STZ).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Angiosperms.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We compiled 1,450,545 georeferenced records for 4995 native angiosperm species intersecting the STZ, mapped onto an equal-area grid of 2137 hexagonal cells (100 km width). Using a dated phylogeny, we calculated species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD), relative PD, phylogenetic endemism (PE) and relative PE. Categorical Analysis of Neo- and Paleo-endemism (CANAPE) identified cells harbouring neo-, paleo-, mixed, or super-endemism. Environmental associations were assessed by positioning CANAPE categories in climate space with kernel density centroids and tested with PERMANOVA across present and paleoclimatic intervals (Late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial, Pliocene). Pairwise contrasts of lineage ages and climate variables among CANAPE categories were quantified with Cliff's Delta.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Significant PE concentrated along the Andes. Neo-endemism occurred in cooler, drier, and highly seasonal climates within geologically active areas of high topographic diversity, mainly in the northern and central Andes. Paleo-endemism was linked to wetter, climatically stable, and geologically stable regions of lower geodiversity, primarily beyond the transition in the southern Andes. Mixed endemism predominated across most of the transition zone, while super-endemism occurred in cool, dry environments with very high seasonality.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The STZ constitutes a zone of overlap where ancient and recent lineages converge and also functions as a cradle of diversification. Consistent links between long-term climate, Andean geomorphology and endemism types indicate a complex evolutionary interface rather than a transient biogeographic feature.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biogeographic Boundaries and Angiosperm Phylogenetic Endemism: Highlighting the Evolutionary Complexity of the South American Transition Zone","authors":"Viridiana Lizardo,&nbsp;Adriana Ruggiero","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70183","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Biogeographic transition zones represent areas of overlap, replacement or partial segregation between distinct biotas, yet their evolutionary role in biotic assembly remains poorly understood. We analysed spatial patterns of phylogenetic endemism in the South American Transition Zone and their associations with geomorphology, geodiversity and climate to test whether it reflects the overlap of temporally disjunct lineages, a cradle of diversification, or a museum of persistence.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>South American Transition Zone (STZ).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Angiosperms.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We compiled 1,450,545 georeferenced records for 4995 native angiosperm species intersecting the STZ, mapped onto an equal-area grid of 2137 hexagonal cells (100 km width). Using a dated phylogeny, we calculated species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD), relative PD, phylogenetic endemism (PE) and relative PE. Categorical Analysis of Neo- and Paleo-endemism (CANAPE) identified cells harbouring neo-, paleo-, mixed, or super-endemism. Environmental associations were assessed by positioning CANAPE categories in climate space with kernel density centroids and tested with PERMANOVA across present and paleoclimatic intervals (Late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial, Pliocene). Pairwise contrasts of lineage ages and climate variables among CANAPE categories were quantified with Cliff's Delta.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Significant PE concentrated along the Andes. Neo-endemism occurred in cooler, drier, and highly seasonal climates within geologically active areas of high topographic diversity, mainly in the northern and central Andes. Paleo-endemism was linked to wetter, climatically stable, and geologically stable regions of lower geodiversity, primarily beyond the transition in the southern Andes. Mixed endemism predominated across most of the transition zone, while super-endemism occurred in cool, dry environments with very high seasonality.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The STZ constitutes a zone of overlap where ancient and recent lineages converge and also functions as a cradle of diversification. Consistent links between long-term climate, Andean geomorphology and endemism types indicate a complex evolutionary interface rather than a transient biogeographic feature.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warming Temperatures to Expand Spruce Beetle Outbreak Distribution in Northern but Not Southern Picea Forests of Western North America","authors":"Michael C. Howe,&nbsp;Karen Hutten,&nbsp;Jessie Moan,&nbsp;Kellen N. Nelson","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70177","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The biogeography and distribution of irruptive forest insect herbivores are driven by population level responses to host availability, temperature, and precipitation. Because the irruptive dynamics of tree-killing insects such as spruce beetle are regulated by climate, it is imperative to quantify biogeographic drivers and limiters to develop informed predictions and forecasts of future outbreaks. Here, we: (1) identify subcontinental drivers of spruce beetle outbreak distributions, (2) compare drivers and limiters of outbreaks across regions, and (3) develop geospatial hindcasts and forecasts to evaluate the potential for shifts in outbreak activity through time.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Western North American spruce forests spanning 33 to 68 degrees latitude.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Spruce beetle (<i>Dendroctonus rufipennis</i>) and spruce trees (<i>Picea</i> spp.)</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We compiled aerial surveys of spruce beetle-caused tree mortality from 1962 to 2023, forest inventory, and downscaled climate data to develop ensemble machine learning models to investigate patterns of recorded outbreaks and predict the historical and projected distributions of spruce beetle outbreaks.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The distribution of spruce beetle outbreaks are best explained by minimum winter temperature, precipitation as snow, and mean growing season temperatures across western North American. Limiters of outbreaks varied regionally. Host occupancy limited the southern distribution, abundant moisture and diffuse host availability in mixed species forests constrained the western coastal distribution, and minimum winter temperature constrained the northern distribution. Hindcasts and forecasts indicate that the outbreak distribution has expanded in all regions since 1900 and will continue to expand poleward due to projected warming across the boreal.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding how the distributions of forest insect outbreaks respond to fluctuations in climate will dictate the location and severity of outbreaks over the next century. Large-scale irruptions of spruce beetle in forests with historically limited activity will lead to substantial impacts on spruce-dominated landscapes and unknown ramifications for forest processes or long-term disturbance regimes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"53 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}