{"title":"Will the True Marginal Investor Please Stand Up?: Asset Prices with Immutable Security Trading by Investors","authors":"P. Swan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.300580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.300580","url":null,"abstract":"The important and highly influential Amihud and Mendelson (1986) model of asset pricing incorporating immutable security trading by a continuum of investors/traders is unnecessarily opaque because of a flaw in the numerical simulation which I correct. Moreover, the exposition by Kane (1994) and Bodie, Kane and Marcus (2002) also fails to faithfully present the model. Putting aside these presentational issues, I show that the model is flawed because the marginal investor, on whom the analysis rests, cannot be identified. More fundamentally, the model fails to identify the benefits of trading whilst taking account of the costs. This one-sided treatment means that the model as it stands cannot be used to make valid predictions of the impact of transaction costs on asset prices.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126002762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rule of Law, Risk Sharing, and the Cost of Funds","authors":"Mariassunta Giannetti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.300926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.300926","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that the quality of laws, by affecting the cost of investment for outside investors, has an effect on risk sharing and, through it, on the availability of external finance to firms. If, because of high investment costs, the provision of finance to projects is concentrated in few risk-averse individuals, the risk premium rises steeply with the amount of funds firms demand. As a consequence, in countries where the financial system does not favor risk sharing, the larger the demand for external funds of a firm, the costlier external finance becomes. Empirical evidence of this effect is also provided. The cost of debt is higher for firms demanding larger loans, even after controlling for leverage and other firm characteristics. Not surprisingly, the scale of the loans matters especially in countries where creditor rights are less protected.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"149 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124164454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Determinations of Equity Value with Stochastic Term Structure of Discount Factors","authors":"Pengguo Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.301970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.301970","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses equity valuation on a per share basis and in a stochastic term structure of discount factors framework. The value of equity has been explicitly expressed in a no-growth component, which is proxied by either capitalised next period earnings or open book value, and growth components, which links short term performance of book value and growth rates of earnings performance adjusted by market systematic risk. Consistent with asset pricing theory discounting risk-adjusted future cash stream bases on short term interest rate rather than risk-adjusted cost of capital. The growth value is shown to be a function of retention rate and persistence of returns on earnings retained and the market risk. The constant dividend growth model and Ohlson and Juettner (2000) are special cases if one assumes that the interest rate is constant and the future investment opportunities have the same risk as the existing business. In a constant earnings growth setting, it is shown that only when return on equity is greater than a risk adjusted rate of return should the firm increase the retention rate, and the implied risk premium is positively linked to the systematic market risk in a nonlinear fashion.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122411420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Option Value of Non-Recourse Lending and Inflated Asset Prices","authors":"Andrey Pavlov, Susan M. Wachter","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302939","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the market prices of assets in fixed supply whose purchase is typically financed through non-recourse loans. The largest and most common asset in this category is real estate. We demonstrate the following two important features of such markets: - Lenders' underpricing of the put option contained in the non-recourse loans leads to inflated asset prices within efficient markets, and - Under certain conditions, the presence of short-term players in the debt market induces all lenders to underprice the put option in equilibrium. We further show that the probability of entering the \"underpricing\" equilibrium (i.e., all lenders underprice the put) increases with the time since the last negative demand shock, increases with the volatility of the asset market, and decreases with the size of the debt market. These results hold even when all participants in both equity and debt markets are fully rational. Furthermore, the model allows for management compensation that is aligned with maximizing bank shareholders' value. Using real estate transaction data we find strong empirical support for the predictions of the model.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133703313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bank Size, Specialization and Efficiency: The Netherlands, 1992-1998","authors":"J. Bos, C. Kool","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.302712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.302712","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we assess cost and profit efficiency for a sample of banks operating on the Dutch banking market in the period 1992-1998, using stochastic frontier efficiency analysis. Over the entire period, the cost-efficient frontier deteriorates but mean cost efficiency and profit efficiency are relatively stable at the industry level. No evidence is found for trend changes in mean efficiency due to the previous consolidation and deregulation. However, whereas all banks appear to perform rather similarly in terms of cost efficiency, in terms of profit efficiency large general banks and specialized banks clearly outperform small, general banks. Large banks appear to benefit from sheer size and perhaps market power. This is evidence in favor of the large banks behaving collusively and capturing oligopoly rents. Specialized banks operate savely and efficiently in what might be termed a niche market.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121596135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Geared Equity Investments: Tax Arbitrage Down Under","authors":"C. Corrado, Joseph K. Cheung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302067","url":null,"abstract":"Geared Equity Investments (GEI) are an over-the-counter product offered by Macquarie Bank, Ltd. to high-income investors in Australia and New Zealand as a managed-risk investment in local shares with a significant tax-shield benefit. Upon issuance, a geared equity contract has three stakeholders: 1) the investor, 2) the issuer, and 3) the tax authority. We measure the value of these contracts to each stakeholder and assess their support for investor tax arbitrage. Our main conclusion is that the tax-shield benefit of a GEI contract supports investor tax arbitrage in certain cases, but that most of the tax shield flows through to the issuer and the credit markets.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129653232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Common Factors in International Bond Returns Revisited: A Common Principal Component Approach","authors":"Franck Moraux, C. Pérignon, Christophe Villa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302086","url":null,"abstract":"The movements of domestic term structures of interest rates are commonly assumed to be driven by a small number of factors, usually obtained from a principal component analysis. In order to model simultaneously the dynamics of several domestic term structures, principal component analysis is applied either to the pooled data or separately to each domestic term structure. Although researchers often notice that the shape of the factor loadings is the same for all countries but that the explained variance per factor is quite different across countries, they stop formulating constraints on parameters. This paper applies Common Principal Component analysis to deal with this issue.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128957394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emmanuel Jurczenko, Bertrand B. Maillet, Bogdan Negrea
{"title":"Multi-Moment Approximate Option Pricing Models: A General Comparison (Part 1)","authors":"Emmanuel Jurczenko, Bertrand B. Maillet, Bogdan Negrea","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.300922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.300922","url":null,"abstract":"After the seminal paper of Jarrow and Rudd (1982), several authors have proposed to use different statistical series expansion to price options when the risk-neutral density is asymmetric and leptokurtic. Amongst them, one can distinguish the Gram-Charlier Type A series expansion (Corrado and Su, 1996-b and 1997-b), the log-normal Gram- Charlier series expansion (Jarrow and Rudd, 1982) and the Edgeworth series expansion (Rubinstein, 1998). The purpose of this paper is to compare these different multimoment approximate option pricing models. We first recall the link between the riskneutral density and moments in a general statistical series expansion framework under the martingale hypothesis. We then derive analytical formulae for several four-moment approximate option pricing models, namely, the Jarrow and Rudd (1982), Corrado and Su (1996-b and 1997-b) and Rubinstein (1998) models. We investigate in particular the conditions that ensure the respect of the martingale restriction (see Longstaff, 1995) and consequently revisit the approximate option pricing models under study. We also get for these models the analytical expressions of implied probability densities, implied volatility smile functions and several hedging parameters of interest.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130085573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Conditional Asset Allocation, Hedging and Intertemporal Asset Pricing","authors":"Guojun Wu, Bruno Gerard","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302741","url":null,"abstract":"We jointly estimate and test a conditional asset pricing model which includes long term interest rate risk as a potentially priced factor for four broad classes of assets - large stocks, small stocks, long term Treasury bonds and corporate bonds. We find that the premium for long bond risk is the main component of the risk premiums of Treasury bond and corporate bond portfolios, while it represents a small fraction of total risk premiums for equities. Our results suggest that investors perceive stocks as hedges against variations in the investment opportunity set. Since these four asset classes represent some of the most important for investors, we proceed to use our estimates to compute the optimal period by period asset allocations for investors with different risk preferences and trading strategies. We decompose the trades in their market timing, hedging and speculative components.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127550201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asset Allocation: Emerging Markets and Technology Stocks","authors":"Nuno Fernandes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.301372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.301372","url":null,"abstract":"During the last two decades, liberalization of capital markets in emerging markets was a common trend. Liberalization caused an increased responsiveness to world factors. Indeed, as argued in this paper, emerging markets are now behaving like certain developed markets' asset classes. This study develops a framework for asset classes' comparisons in an increasingly integrated world market, focusing on two aspects - diversification benefits and risk profiles. The set of tools used includes the standard Markowitz mean-variance analysis, spanning tests, the International CAPM, lower-moment CAPM and a conditional asset pricing model which allows time-variation in the betas. The empirical analysis focuses on two asset classes: emerging markets and technology stocks. It is found that after allowing investment in technological stocks, there are no significative gains from an aggregate investment in emerging market equities. Furthermore, the mean variance spanning test shows that emerging markets as a whole are spanned by developed market indices. The conditional framework shows that global risk factors have similar impact on the two asset classes in consideration, and in particular that conditional betas tend to covary simultaneously with business cycle proxies. These results contrast with previous studies, and can be justified by the increasing integration of emerging markets and a longer (and more realistic) time frame. The results show that the value added of diversified index funds of emerging markets' equities is low, and that individual country selection can provide very distinct results. The study has implications for global asset allocation, home bias and cost of equity estimation.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126934926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}