{"title":"Market Conditions, Order Flow and Exchange Rates Determination","authors":"Jinhui Luo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.299684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.299684","url":null,"abstract":"In comparison to macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates, the market microstructure approach performs better in explaining exchange rate changes over short time horizons. The microstructure approach implies that information in order flow drives the dynamic processes of price evolution. This paper studies the informativeness of order flow under different market conditions in the foreign exchange market. We find that order flow tends to be more informative when the market experiences large bid-ask spreads, high volatility or low trading volumes. We also identify nonlinearities in the relationship between order flow and foreign exchange rate changes and find that these nonlinearities can be captured by the Interaction model and the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129454539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Multiple Dimensions of Asset Allocation: Countries, Sectors or Factors?","authors":"Anne-Sophie E. Vanroyen, Sébastien Page","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.295631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.295631","url":null,"abstract":"Asset allocation has been performed traditionally along country lines. If the balance is shifting towards sectors, then skill in forecasting relative country returns may not be sufficient to ensure investment success. It may lead to suboptimal portfolios. There is growing evidence supporting the emergence of global sectors. We examine this claim, focusing on 19 developed equity markets between 1994 and 2000. We first identify clusters of sectors across countries, using a methodology based on neural networks. Although country stratification remains important, our results suggest a more complex and dual structure across both dimensions. Some clusters correspond to global sectors across regions. In contrast with Heston and Rouwenhorst (1994) seminal model and subsequent research, we develop a framework that allows a large degree of interaction between countries and sectors. We also relax the assumption that country and sector exposures are fixed, thus enabling us to analyze how the two dimensions evolved over time. We perform principal components analysis to identify factors driving returns. By construction, the factors combine both dimensions, geographic and industrial, and are allowed to vary over time. We measure the relative importance of country and sector effects in these factors, and find that sectors have become as important as countries since October 2000. We discuss the implications of these findings for asset allocation. Factors are interpreted as combinations of a limited number of short and long positions. We find that diversification across factors leads to lower risk than diversification across countries or sectors.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"222 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115533591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Miles-Ezzell's Wacc Approach Yields Arbitrage","authors":"A. Löffler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.286395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.286395","url":null,"abstract":"A simple counterexample shows the the widely used WACC approach to value leverage firms developed by Miles and Ezzell can create an arbitrage opportunity. The only consequence to be drawn is that their WACC approach cannot be applied under the circumstances assumed by Miles and Ezzell. We show how the WACC has to be modified in order to obtain proper results. We develop a theory in continuous as well as discrete time. In discrete time it turns out that with a further assumption on the cash flows of the firm formulas similar to Miles and Ezzell's results can be verified. This assumption requires that the increments of cash flows have to be uncorrelated. This is a much weaker assumption than independent increments which is used in models of random walk.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114078698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"January Effect - a Re-Examination","authors":"Honghui Chen, Vijay Singal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302715","url":null,"abstract":"The multitude of explanations for the January effect leaves the reader confused about its primary cause(s): is it tax-loss selling, window-dressing, information, bid-ask bounce, or a combination of these causes? The confusion arises, in part, because evidence has been presented in support of a particular hypothesis though the same evidence may be consistent with more than one hypothesis. Furthermore, prior work has not adequately controlled for the bid-ask bounce. In this paper, we try to disentangle different explanations of the January effect and identify its primary cause. We find that tax-related selling is the most important cause, overshadowing other possible explanations.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122654096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rational Asset Pricing Implications from Realistic Trading Frictions","authors":"Jean-Pierre Zigrand","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302819","url":null,"abstract":"We study a simple rational expectations (RE) model whose asset pricing implications address some of the short-run mispricings, informational inefficiencies, and overreactions observed in real markets, without a need to resort to behavioral assumptions. We accomplish this by relying on the plausible joint frictions of immediacy risk and asset-specific orders. We show that arbitrage opportunities occur at the RE equilibrium that could not have occurred in a standard model. A certain degree of informativeness of prices to the traders is lost, leading to a decentralization and coordination problem. Asset prices are shown to overreact as a result.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132577458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shareholder Wealth Effects of Joint Venture Strategies: Theory and Evidence from the Netherlands","authors":"G. Schut, R. van Frederikslust","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302007","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the shareholder wealth effects of 233 joint venture announcements of Dutch public companies in the period 1987 till 1998. The research shows that, on average, establishing joint ventures has a positive effect on the market value of Dutch companies. The results indicate that joint ventures are preferred when a company is under pressure. Our research also shows that the factors of strategic intention, the environment in which the strategy is unfolded and the extent to which the company has control over the implementation strongly explains the extent to which a joint venture can create value.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134025359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk Management with Derivatives by Dealers and Market Quality in Government Bond Markets","authors":"Narayan Naik, P. Yadav","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.287636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.287636","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how bond dealers manage core business risk with interest rate futures and the extent to which market quality is affected by their selective risk taking. We observe that dealers use futures to take directional bets and hedge changes in their spot exposure. We find that, cross-sectionally, a dealer with longer (shorter) risk exposure sells (buys) a larger amount of exposure the next day. However, this risk control takes place via the futures market and not the spot market. Finally, we find strong support for the price effects of capital constraints emphasized by Froot and Stein (1998) . Copyright (c) 2003 by the American Finance Association.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116624014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Bankruptcy Rules on Risky Project Choice and Skill Formation Under Credit Rationing","authors":"S. Gangopadhyay, C. Wihlborg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302594","url":null,"abstract":"The contribution of this paper is in emphasizing endogenous credit rationing in the analysis of effects of bankruptcy rules on entrepeneurs’ decisions with respect to risk-taking and ex ante skill-development. Unlike most of the literature, both the debt claim and the amount of debt financing is endogenous in our exercise. This allows us to determine the extent of credit rationing that banks use to tackle informational asymmetry. Credit rationing is non-trivial and increases the cost of capital when corporations are forced to access alternative sources of funding even when debt is a cheaper alternative. We thus solve for optimal debt-equity ratios in the capital structure of the corporation and entrepeneurs’ risk-taking. Second, we allow entrepeneurs to invest in generating skill to handle risky projects. We show that bankruptcy policies are important determinants of all these outcomes in ways that in some cases contradict the existing literature, which does not consider endogenous credit rationing.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123126840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity","authors":"Thierry Foucault, Ohad Kadan, Eugene Kandel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.269908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.269908","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a dynamic model of a limit order market populated by strategic liquidity traders of varying impatience. In equilibrium, patient traders tend to submit limit orders, whereas impatient traders submit market orders. Two variables are the key determinants of the limit order book dynamics in equilibrium: the proportion of patient traders and the order arrival rate. We offer several testable implications for various market quality measures such as spread, trading frequency, market resiliency, and time to execution for limit orders. Finally, we show the effect of imposing a minimal price variation on these measures. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129552801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Liquidity Providers on an Electronic Order-Driven Market","authors":"Edward H. Chow, Y. Hsu, Ivan Tso","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302634","url":null,"abstract":"The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSEC) is an electronic order-driven market without designated market makers. By turnover rate the TSEC is the most liquid market in the world. This paper is about the liquidity providers on the TSEC. Our analysis sheds light on the design of trading mechanism of an order driven market that fosters liquidity providing behavior of its participants. We identify institutional traders such as depository institutions, corporations, insurance companies, and investment companies as viable liquidity providers. They trade heavily, make handsome profits, and their trading profits increase with trading volume as well as the frequency of participation in trades. They have some timing and securities selection ability. They use limit orders extensively and mix limit and market orders in their trading strategy. However, they provide less than 4% of the liquidity on the TSEC. The bulk of the liquidity on the TSEC is provided by individual investors who use limit orders extensively. Our analysis indicates that the TSEC can be characterized as a market where every participant has a good chance of making short-term capital gains. Very few viable liquidity providers make persistent profits. The transaction cost on the TSEC is low. There is no equity requirement for submitting orders. The market is fair in the sense that every trader has the same trade information and trade access.","PeriodicalId":151935,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Submissions","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122737235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}