Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics最新文献

{"title":"Study on the reconstruction of initial and lateral boundary conditions for a convective-allowing ensemble forecast system","authors":"Yu Xia ,&nbsp;Hanbin Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Liu ,&nbsp;Shuting Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiang-Yu Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106697","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106697","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a reconstruction scheme aimed at enhancing the accuracy of initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) within the convective-allowing ensemble forecast system (CAEFS). Initially, we assessed the impact of ICs and LBCs on CAEFS, highlighting how their perturbations predominantly influence the uncertainty in short- and long-range forecasts. Subsequently, methods for reconstructing ICs and LBCs in CAEFS were developed. This process involved refining the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) - originally derived from downscaling a coarse-resolution global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) - through assimilation of high-quality global deterministic forecasts. To address changes in uncertainty characteristics after reconstruction, we implemented a scheme for adjusting perturbation amplitudes in ICs and LBCs. Our findings indicate the following: Due to limitations in GEFS quality, the downscaling approach exhibited significant forecast errors and overspread. The reconstruction scheme improved CAEFS forecast accuracy; however, overspread persisted due to large-scale perturbation amplitudes from global ensemble. Combining reconstruction with perturbation amplitude adjustment not only enhanced the accuracy of control forecast but also effectively mitigated overspread issues in CAEFS. Furthermore, this approach retained small-scale uncertainty information, thereby sharpening focus on small-scale forecasting uncertainty and improving CAEFS reliability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"278 ","pages":"Article 106697"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145691514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European ionospheric response to the May 2024 Gannon geomagnetic storm","authors":"Özlem Hacıoğlu ,&nbsp;Elif Çiftçi ,&nbsp;Burak Kotan","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106688","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106688","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Gannon geomagnetic superstorm of May 2024, classified as a G5-level event, significantly disturbed Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. This study examines storm-time ionospheric responses over Europe by integrating Global Navigation Satellite System-derived Total Electron Content (GNSS-derived TEC) parameters (vTEC, ΔTEC, and rTEC) with ground-based geomagnetic field observations, while also considering equatorial features such as the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). TEC data from the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) revealed substantial ionospheric restructuring with clear diurnal and latitudinal variability. During the main phase, the nighttime EIA exhibited hemispheric asymmetries, with partial suppression over the African and Atlantic sectors, driven by prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs) arising from enhanced solar wind–magnetosphere coupling shortly after the storm sudden commencement (SSC) on 10 May. These fields contributed to concurrent TEC reductions of −20 to −25 TECu over Europe. In the early recovery phase, plasma suppression became evident, primarily driven by disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs) and thermospheric composition changes. Daytime TEC depletions exceeding −35 TECu (rTEC &lt; −0.8) persisted for over 18 h between 30°N and 50°N, confirming one of the most prolonged negative phases reported at European mid-latitudes. Perturbations in horizontal (H) and vertical (Z) magnetic field components further supported the role of intensified ring current activity and large-scale field-aligned currents (FACs). These findings highlight the dominant electrodynamic drivers, with contributions from thermospheric processes, and underscore the importance of space weather impacts for modern technological systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"278 ","pages":"Article 106688"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Three-dimensional lightning channel structure reconstruction: An efficient matching TOA algorithm for VHF pulses” [J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 278 (2026) 106702]","authors":"Yueyang Wang,&nbsp;Yun Li,&nbsp;Shi Qiu,&nbsp;Shuangjiang Du,&nbsp;Zheng Sun,&nbsp;Lihua Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106707","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"278 ","pages":"Article 106707"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physicochemical analysis and source apportionment of PM1.0 and PM2.5 in Harbin","authors":"Likun Huang ,&nbsp;Zhouyu Guo ,&nbsp;Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Guangzhi Wang ,&nbsp;Dongdong Wang ,&nbsp;Jingyi Zhang ,&nbsp;Xinyu Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fine particulate matter (PM_1.0 and PM_2.5) warrants concern due to its health impacts and atmospheric reactivity, yet their source contributions and seasonal variations remain unclear. To investigate their characteristics, sources, and interrelationships, we collected concurrent PM_1.0 and PM_2.5 samples at an urban site in Harbin from November 2014 to November 2015. The samples were analyzed for mass concentrations, water-soluble ions via ion chromatography, inorganic elements using ICP-OES/ICP-MS, particle morphology by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and source apportionment using the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model. The results showed that PM_1.0 and PM_2.5 exhibited similar seasonal trends, with the highest concentrations in winter and the lowest in summer. PM_1.0 accounted for 60–90 % of PM_2.5, indicating that most pollutants were concentrated in the finer fraction. Major water-soluble ions included SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, and NH₄⁺, suggesting significant secondary aerosol formation. Inorganic element analysis revealed elevated concentrations of crustal elements such as Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, and Si, pointing to soil dust as a major contributor. SEM observations showed that particles were predominantly irregular mineral grains and spherical fly ash, indicating contributions from both soil dust and coal combustion. PMF source apportionment further revealed distinct seasonal patterns: soil dust and industrial emissions were dominant in spring and summer, while biomass burning, vehicle exhaust, and coal combustion were the primary sources in autumn and winter. This study provides scientific evidence and technical support for targeted fine particulate pollution control and regional air quality management in Harbin and other similar cold-climate cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"278 ","pages":"Article 106711"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Framework for the lightning risk assessment over India – a case study over a peninsular state","authors":"Nambi Manavalan Rajan ,&nbsp;Alok Taori ,&nbsp;Degala Venkatesh ,&nbsp;M. Mallikarjun ,&nbsp;Sameer Saran ,&nbsp;Rajiv Kumar ,&nbsp;Dhiroj Kumar Behra ,&nbsp;Goru Srinivasa Rao ,&nbsp;Prakash Chauhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106680","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106680","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cloud-to-ground lightning is recognized as a major weather hazard in India, with mortality and losses persisting. A reproducible lightning-risk framework for India is developed and demonstrated for the peninsular state of Andhra Pradesh, using lightning-occurrence data together with topography from CartoDEM, land cover from NRSC's LULC, and socio-economic and infrastructure indicators derived from SECC-2011 and OpenStreetMap. Guided by the UNDRR hazard–exposure–vulnerability concept and FEMA's National Risk Index factorization, the study combines a Lightning Hazard Index (LHI) and a six-factor Lightning Vulnerability Index (LVI) to generate seasonal Lightning Risk Index (LRI) maps. Hazard mapping reveals a monsoon concentration along the north-coastal corridor, a post-monsoon southward shift, and minimal winter risk, while vulnerability peaks along the urban–industrial chain and within the Krishna–Godavari deltas. These season-resolved, decision-ready LRI maps are expected to be highly useful for targeted lightning protection, early-warning placement, and community preparedness. The proposed framework offers a transferable model for lightning risk mapping across India, supporting climate-aware disaster mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"277 ","pages":"Article 106680"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An analysis of the impacts of meteorological factors on ozone concentration using generalized additive model in Tianjin, China","authors":"Xu Zhang ,&nbsp;Chang Liu ,&nbsp;Yixin Liu ,&nbsp;Xumei Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ozone (O₃) pollution in China is an increasingly serious problem and Tianjin experiences O₃ pollution as its predominant air quality challenge. An analysis of data from 2018 to 2022 indicated that the level of O₃ pollution in Tianjin showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The monthly distribution of O₃ concentration and the number of O₃ exceeding the standard day in Tianjin showed a single peak trend in June. Based on the ground meteorological data and air quality data in Tianjin from 2018 to 2022, the study developed a time-phased generalized additive model (GAM) of meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, pressure, precipitation and wind speed) in Tianjin to analyze their specific effects on O₃ concentration. The results showed that the GAM had a high quality and effectively captured the complex nonlinear relationship between O₃ and meteorological factors. Seasonal differences were identified in the relationship between O₃ concentration and different meteorological factors in Tianjin. Notably, temperature was the dominant meteorological factor affecting O₃ concentration change in Tianjin. The interaction of high temperature and medium relative humidity was highly correlated with O₃ concentration in Tianjin in summer. The research results are helpful to clarify the influence of meteorological conditions in different seasons on O₃ concentration change in Tianjin. It is of great significance for the accurate prediction of O₃ pollution and the formulation of pollution prevention and control policies according to local conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"277 ","pages":"Article 106669"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145417621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on hourly precipitation prediction along railways based on ERA5 reanalysis and post-processing correction","authors":"Xiangshun Meng ,&nbsp;Yong Wang ,&nbsp;Yunlong Zhang ,&nbsp;Chengwu Yang ,&nbsp;Chen Chang ,&nbsp;Haozhe Chi ,&nbsp;Yanping Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global climate change has intensified extreme precipitation events, highlighting the urgent need for high-precision short-term rainfall forecasts to ensure railway transportation safety. However, existing meteorological monitoring remains limited by sparse station distribution, observational blind spots, and data inaccuracies. Global reanalysis datasets are hindered by low spatial resolution and precipitation underestimation, while numerical weather prediction models, typically with spatial resolutions exceeding 10 km, cannot satisfy the kilometer-scale disaster prevention demands along railway corridors. To address these limitations, we propose an “FFT–LSTM + post-processing correction” framework, which combines Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to extract nonlinear temporal characteristics of precipitation evolution from multivariate meteorological variables. The model further refines precipitation predictions through post-processing correction methods, including Simple Linear Regression (SLR), enhanced Piecewise Linear (PL), and Quantile Mapping (QM). FFT is initially employed to identify the best common period (143 h) among the inputs, guiding the optimal LSTM input window length. Subsequently, tailored correction strategies are applied according to rainfall intensity levels to improve prediction accuracy. Validation based on Meiyu-season data from four representative stations along the Guangzhou–Zhanjiang railway confirms that the proposed approach significantly enhances prediction skill. In hourly predictions, the Probability of Detection (POD) for moderate, heavy, and torrential rainfall reaches 0.562, 0.625, and 0.500, respectively; the Critical Success Index (CSI) for torrential rainfall peaks at 1.0, and the False Alarm Rate (FAR) is reduced to 0.000—indicating substantial gains over baseline models such as ARIMA and XGBoost (CSI &lt;0.08). This study effectively integrates deep learning and statistical correction techniques to overcome key limitations of reanalysis data, providing high-precision support for short-term precipitation forecasting along railways and thereby supporting meteorological disaster mitigation and transportation safety decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"277 ","pages":"Article 106666"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145417622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variability in the thermospheric neutral mass density: A multiple model comparison","authors":"Yongliang Zhang,&nbsp;Patrick B. Dandenault,&nbsp;Larry J. Paxton,&nbsp;Robert Schaefer,&nbsp;Clayton Cantrall,&nbsp;Hyosub Kil,&nbsp;Rafael Mesquita,&nbsp;Matthew E. Zuber","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Variability in the thermospheric neutral mass density in LEO/VLEO altitudes has been investigated using outputs from five models (MSIS2.0, HASDM, WACCM-X, TIEGCM, and WAM-IPE) under different geophysical conditions: geomagnetically quiet, moderate storm and super storm. These models are selected to represent empirical, assimilation, and physics-based methods. We compared the global neutral mass density distribution and the time variations in the densities using equatorial and polar orbits at three fixed LEO/VLEO altitudes (100, 200, and 300 km) from the five models. Our key findings from the analyses are: (1) there are significant systematic biases among the model results; (2) WACCM-X, TIEGCM and HASDM peak densities are roughly consistent with each other during a super storm. However, their UT differences are up to a half day; (3) WAM-IPE and MSIS-2.0 models tend to give lower densities than other models; (4) the geomagnetic activity impact on neutral mass densities increases with altitude and it is negligible at 100 km altitude, becomes evident at 150 km, and is significant at 200 km; (5) geomagnetic storms tend to reduce the biases among the model densities The systematic biases among models are likely due to the different parameterizations, drivers and boundary conditions used in the models. A systematic evaluation of the models using multiple and cross-calibrated ground truth data sets is needed to fully address the biases and offer the insight required to improve the models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"277 ","pages":"Article 106630"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantization of natural energy pathways in space","authors":"Andrei Moldavanov","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A phenomenon of energy transfer in space through a natural energy infrastructure shaped by confinement of the parameters of energy exchange is considered. The infrastructure consists of two interconnected energy spectra intrinsically stemming from the suggested model of an open thermodynamic system. The spectra are based on innate limitation imposed on the efficiency of energy exchange (primary spectrum) and the net passing energy (secondary spectrum). In this context, the primary spectrum creates the quantitative basis for realization of solution in the points of equilibrium, whereas the secondary spectrum forms the guiding energy tubes (<em>GET</em>) for bidirectional transfer between the distant energy points. According to the discussing theory, the family of <em>GETs</em> may be taken as the pathways for energy transfer with the observable signatures of spontaneous shaping, folding, and invariancy. Fundamentally, the conducted simulation for the event of energy transfer in the magnetosphere reveals the existence of connections between <em>GET</em> and the well-known magnetic flux tube, with the major advantage of <em>GET</em> in the more universal character of the underlying theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"277 ","pages":"Article 106672"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145462744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatially heterogeneous wetting and climatic drivers of precipitation variability in arid and semi-arid Northwest China since 1960","authors":"Hao Wu ,&nbsp;Xinyan Li ,&nbsp;Zuohui Cai ,&nbsp;Yao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation across the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China from 1960 to 2020, focusing on long-term trends, regional disparities, and climatic drivers. Piecewise linear regression reveals a sharp wetting transition around 2000, characterized by rising precipitation frequency and intensity. However, this trend is spatially heterogeneous. Fuzzy clustering reveals four distinct change patterns that correspond with key geographic subregions. Before 2000, increases were concentrated in the arid Northern Tianshan (NT) and Tarim Basin (TB); after 2000, semi-arid Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) and Loess Plateau (LP) became dominant contributors. Precipitation become more seasonally balanced, potentially easing drought stress. Yet, extreme precipitation events have intensified, particularly in arid regions, posing escalating risks to the fragile ecosystems. Slow feature analysis isolates dominant low-varying modes, revealing that NT and NETP are primarily influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with a two-year lag in NETP. LP is modulated by the East Asian summer monsoon. TB is predominantly affected by the Eurasian wave train pattern and equatorial Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. These results highlight the complex and regionally varied hydroclimatic change across Northwest China, urgently calling for tailored adaptation and water management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"277 ","pages":"Article 106632"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}